Praise for Breakthroughs in Technical Analysis...Commodities Technical Strategy, UBS Investment Bank...

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Transcript of Praise for Breakthroughs in Technical Analysis...Commodities Technical Strategy, UBS Investment Bank...

Praise for

Breakthroughs in Technical Analysis N e w T h i n k i n g f r o m t h e W o r l d Õ s T o p M i n d s

Edited by David Keller

“ Mr. Keller went to great lengths to collect diverse methodology in technical anal­ysis from around the globe. For over forty years I have seen interest in technical analysis wane and wax as markets change and practitioner skills change. Break­throughs in Technical Analysis offers commentary from the leading experts in the newest quantitative methodologies as well as old reliable techniques. I rec­ommend the book to established professionals as well as bright newcomers.”

Philip J. Roth, CMT Chief Technical Market Analyst, Miller Tabak & Co., LLC Past President and Board Member of the Market Technicians Association

“Navigating financial markets can be a hazardous exercise. In Breakthroughs in Technical Analysis, Dave Keller has assembled contributions from an experi­enced crew of established technicians and market timers to ease the journey and demystify the arcane world of technical analysis. The book features a number of approaches (as diverse as DeMark and Ichimoku), which challenge conventional wisdom and are sure to form an invaluable part of your trading arsenal, whether you’re technically or fundamentally oriented.”

Jason Perl Global Head of Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Commodities Technical Strategy, UBS Investment Bank

“The concepts and experiences shared by the ten global contributors in David Keller’s book embody the precept that supply and demand for technical analysis is indeed a universal language. These varied topics are very timely and extremely useful in trading and investing in all markets around the world.”

Ralph J. Acampora, CMT Managing Director, Director of Technical Research Knight Equity Markets, LP

Breakthroughs in

Technical Analysis

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Tom Dorsey’s Trading Tips: A Playbook for Stock Market Success

by Thomas J. Dorsey and the DWA Analysts

Wall Street Secrets for Tax-Efficient Investing: From Tax Pain to Investment Gain

by Robert N. Gordon with Jan M. Rosen

New Thinking in Technical Analysis: Trading Models from the Masters

edited by Rick Bensignor

Option Strategies for a Directionless Market: Trading with Butterflies, Iron Butterflies, and Condors

by Anthony J. Saliba (November 2007)

Technical Analysis Tools: Creating a Profitable Trading System by Mark Tinghino (December 2007)

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Breakthroughs in

Technical Analysis

New Thinking from the World’s Top Minds

Edited by David Keller

Bloomberg Press

New York

© 2007 by Bloomberg L.P. All rights reserved. Protected under the Berne Convention. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the publisher except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical articles and reviews. For information, please write Permissions Department, Bloomberg Press, 731 Lexington Avenue, New York, NY 10022 or send an e-mail to [email protected].

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This publication contains the authors’ opinions and is designed to provide accurate and authoritative information. It is sold with the understanding that the authors, publisher, and Bloomberg L.P. are not engaged in rendering legal, accounting, investment-planning, or other professional advice. The reader should seek the services of a qualified pro­fessional for such advice; the authors, publisher, and Bloomberg L.P. cannot be held responsible for any loss incurred as a result of specific investments or planning decisions made by the reader.

First edition published 2007 3 5 7 9 10 8 6 4 2

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Breakthroughs in technical analysis : new thinking from the world’s top minds / edited by David Keller. p.cm.

Summary: “Breakthroughs in Technical Analysis explains the new trading methods used by the world’s top technicians, encompassing in one volume the investing approaches of ten proven practitioners. More important, some of these tech­niques have never left their country’s borders before and are not known or used in other parts of the world.”--Provided by publisher. Includes index.

ISBN 978-1-57660-242-3 (alk. paper) 1. Investment analysis. I. Keller, David, date.

HG4529.B725 2007 332.63’2042 --dc22 2007021051

Acquired by Sophia Efthimiatou Edited by Mary Ann McGuigan and Janet Coleman

Contents

About the Contributors

Acknowledgments

Introduction by David Keller

vii

xi

xiii

� D R U M M O N D G E O M E T R Y: P I C K I N G Y E A R LY H I G H S A N D

L O W S I N I N T E R B A N K F O R E X T R A D I N G

Ted Hearne

1

2 T R E N D S P O T T I N G W I T H T D C O M B O

Tom DeMark

21

3 C H A R T I N G W I T H C A N D L E S A N D C L O U D S

Nicole Elliott

35

4 R E A D I N G C A N D L E S T I C K C H A R T S

Yosuke Shimizu

51

5 P R I C E A N D T I M E

Constance Brown

83

6 U N L O C K I N G G A N N

David E. Bowden

115

7 O P T I O N S - B A S E D T E C H N I C A L I N D I C A T O R S F O R

S T O C K T R A D I N G

Bernie Schaeffer

133

8 P o i n t a n D F i G u r E a n a l y s i s : i n a n o l D t E c H n i q u E

Jeremy du Plessis

m o D E r n D E V E l o P m E n t s 157

9 ’ D E c o n s t r u c t i n G t H E m a r K E t: t H E a P P l i c a t i o n m a r K E t P r o F i l E t o G l o b a l s P r E a D s

Robin Mesch

o F 183

1 0 t H E t E n c o m m a n D m E n t s

Robin Griffiths

205

Index 221

-

" "

About the Contributors

David Bowden�dn�oc`�ajpi_`m�ja�N\a`ot�di�oc`�H\mf`o'�ji`�ja�<pnom\gd\Én�gjib`no( mpiidib� diq`noh`io� om\didib�jmb\idu\odjin)�Ocmjpbc�cdn�^jpmn`n�\i_�n`hdi\mn� \i_�rdoc�\�^gd`io`g`�oc\o�nk\in�oc`�bgj]`'�=jr_`i�c\n�om\di`_�h\it�k`jkg`�oj� pi_`mno\i_�oc`�h\mf`on�\i_�om\_`�oc`h�rdoc�n\a`ot)�=jr_`i�]`b\i�cdn�om\_dib� ^\m``m�di�,430�]t�nop_tdib�\i_�m`n`\m^cdib�oc`�h`ocj_n�ja�R)?)�B\ii'�\�g`b`i_� di�oc`�rjmg_�ja�noj^f�\i_�^jhhj_dot�om\_`mn)�Pndib�B\iiÉn�pidlp`�notg`�ja�ajm`( ^\nodib�\i_� o`^cid^\g�\i\gtndn'�=jr_`i�lpd^fgt�`no\]gdnc`_�\i� dhkm`nndq`� om\^f� m`^jm_�rdoc�cdn�h\mf`o�ajm`^\non)�C`�^\gg`_�oc`�h\mf`o�ojk�ajm�,432'�oj�oc`�_\t)� >\o^cdib�oc`�`t`�ja�h\it�a`ggjr�om\_`mn�\i_�\nnj^d\o`n'�c`�r\n� ocmpno� dioj� oc`� rjmg_�ja�om\_dib�`_p^\odji�di�,433)�Di�,440'�=jr_`i�\pocjm`_�oc`�admno�i\odji( \ggt�\^^m`_do`_�?dkgjh\�ja�O`^cid^\g�<i\gtndn�^jpmn`)�

Constance Brown'�>HO'�ajpi_`_�oc`�bgj]\g�diq`noh`io�^jhk\it�<`mj_ti\hd^� Diq`noh`ion�Di^)�#rrr)\`mjdiq`no)^jh$�\ao`m�rjmfdib�ajm�hjm`�oc\i�or`iot�t`\mn� \n�\i�dinodopodji\g�om\_`m�di�I`r�Tjmf�>dot)�Nc`�^jiodip`n�oj�\^odq`gt�om\_`�amjh� c`m� ̀ lp`nomd\i� ̀ no\o`� di� Njpoc� >\mjgdi\� \i_� \_qdn`n� iph`mjpn� adi\i^d\g� dinod( opodjin�\i_�]\ifn�\mjpi_� oc`�rjmg_�qd\� oc`� Dio`mi`o)�Nc`�ijr�c\n�hjm`� oc\i� n`q`iot� nop_`ion�rcj�c\q`�hjq`_�ji�oj�h\i\b`�\nn`on� oc`hn`gq`n�jm�rjmf� ajm� h\ejm�dinodopodjin)�N`hdi\mn�\i_�g`^opm`n�\m`�qd`r`_�\n�\i�dhkjmo\io�k\mo�ja�^ji( omd]podib�oj�oc`�apmoc`m�_`q`gjkh`io�ja�o`^cid^\g�\i\gtndn)�=mjriÉn�n`^ji_�]jjf' Technical Analysis for the Trading Professional�#H^Bm\r(Cdgg'�,444$'�r\n�n`g`^o`_� ]t� oc`�H\mf`o�O`^cid^d\in�<nnj^d\odji�#HO<$�\n�m`lpdm`_�m`\_dib� oj�km`k\m`� ajm�>HO�G`q`g�.'�oc`�adi\g�`s\hdi\odji�oc\o�\r\m_n�kmja`nndji\gn�oc`�di_pnomtÉn� >c\mo`m`_�H\mf`o�O`^cid^d\i�#>HO$�\^^m`_do\odji)�Nc`�dn�\gnj�\�h`h]`m�ja�oc`� <h`md^\i�<nnj^d\odji�ja�Kmja`nndji\g�O`^cid^\g�<i\gtnon�#<<KO<$)�=mjri�^pm( m`iogt�c\n�nds�]jjfn�di�kmdio)

Tom DeMark�dn�oc`�km`nd_`io�ja�H\mf`o�Nop_d`n�Di^)'�\�kmjqd_`m�ja�kmjkmd`o\mt� h\mf`o�odhdib�di_d^\ojmn�oj�=gjjh]`mb�\i_�joc`m�adi\i^d\g�n`mqd^`n�^jhk\id`n)� C`� \gnj� n`mq`n� \n� \� ̂ jinpgo\io� oj� hpgod]dggdji(_jgg\m� c`_b`� api_n)� >pmm`iogt'� ?`H\mf� dn� nk`^d\g� ̂ jinpgo\io� oj� No`q`� >jc`i� \i_� N<>� >\kdo\g)� Km`qdjpngt'� c`� r\n�nk`^d\g�\_qdn`m�oj�G`ji�>jjk`mh\i�\i_�Jh`b\�<_qdnjmn�\i_�`s`^podq`�qd^`�

vii

viii A B O U T T H E C O N T R I B U T O R S

km`nd_`io�ja�Op_jm)�?`H\mf�r\n�\gnj�^c\dmh\i�ja�Gjbd^\g�Diajmh\odji�H\^cdi`n� #GDH$'� \� npkkgd`m� ja� cdbc(o`^cijgjbt� njaor\m`� n`mqd^`n� ajm� njkcdnod^\o`_� h\m( f`o�m`n`\m^c)�C`�dn�\�ajmh`m�k\moi`m�ja�>c\mgd`�?dAm\i^`n^\'�oc`�g\mb`no�om\_`m� ji� >=JO)� Amjh� ,43-� oj� ,433'� ?`H\mf� r\n� km`nd_`io� ja� ?`H\mf� Diq`noh`io� <_qdnjmt'�Di^)'�\�^jinpgo\i^t�oj�g\mb`�api_�h\i\b`mn'�di^gp_dib�Bjg_h\i�N\^cn'� Gj`rn�>jmk)'�Pidji�>\m]d_`'�>dod]\if'�Hjmb\i�=\if'�D=H'�Hdii`njo\�Hdidib'� No`dic\m_o�K\moi`mn'�Njmjn'�Ompno�>jhk\it�ja�oc`�R`no'�\i_�<og\iod^�Md^cad`g_)� ?`H\mfÉn� ntno`hn� \i_� di_d^\ojmn� c\q`� ]``i� oc`� np]e`^o� ja� iph`mjpn� a`\opm`� \mod^g`n�di�h\it�cdbcgt�m`b\m_`_�\i_�rd_`gt�m`\_�adi\i^d\g�h\b\udi`n�\i_�k\k`mn'� \i_�c`� c\n� \kk`\m`_� m`bpg\mgt�ji� o`g`qdndji�\i_� m\_dj'� \n� r`gg� \n� \o� n`hdi\mn'� ]joc� _jh`nod^\ggt� \i_� dio`mi\odji\ggt)� C`� dn� \gnj� oc`� \pocjm� ja� ocm``� ]`no(n`gg( dib�]jjfn' The New Science of Technical Analysis�#Ejci�Rdg`t�!�Njin'�-++,$' New Market Timing Techniques�#Ejci�Rdg`t�!�Njin'�,442$'�\i_ DeMark on Day Trading Options�#H^Bm\r(Cdgg'�,444$)

Jeremy du Plessis'� >HO'� ANO<'� dn� c`\_� ja� o`^cid^\g� \i\gtndn� \o� Pk_\o\� KG>'� ]\n`_�di�Gji_ji)�C`�dn�\�h`h]`m�ja�oc`�H\mf`o�O`^cid^d\in�<nnj^d\odji�#HO<$� \i_�oc`�<h`md^\i�<nnj^d\odji�ja�Kmja`nndji\g�O`^cid^\g�<i\gtnon�#<<KO<$�di�oc`� Pido`_�No\o`n'�\n�r`gg�\n�\� a`ggjr�ja� oc`�Nj^d`ot�ja�O`^cid^\g�<i\gtnon�#NO<$�di� oc`�Pido`_�Fdib_jh)�?p�Kg`nndn�n`on�oc`�ntgg\]pn�ajm�oc`�kjdio(\i_(adbpm`�hj_( pg`�ja�oc`�Dio`mi\odji\g�A`_`m\odji�ja�O`^cid^\g�<i\gtnon�#DAO<$�^`modad^\o`�\i_� g`^opm`n�ji�kjdio�\i_�adbpm`�ajm�oc`�NO<)�<�m`bpg\m�nk`\f`m�ji�kjdio�\i_�adbpm`� \o� dio`mi\odji\g� ̂ jia`m`i^`n� \i_� n`hdi\mn'� _p� Kg`nndn� c\n� _`_d^\o`_� oc`� k\no� or`iot(adq`�t`\mn�oj�oc`�ad`g_�ja�o`^cid^\g�\i\gtndn�\i_�di�k\mod^pg\m�oj�_`q`gjkdib� o`^cid^\g�\i\gtndn�njaor\m`)�Di�,43.'�oc`�^jhk\it�c`�ajpi_`_'�Di_`sd\�M`n`\m^c� Gdhdo`_'�m`g`\n`_�ji`�ja�oc`�admno�K>(]\n`_�o`^cid^\g�\i\gtndn�ntno`hn�\q\dg\]g`'� rdoc�kjdio�\i_�adbpm`�\n� don�^jmi`mnoji`)�?p�Kg`nndnÉn�]jjf The Definitive Guide to Point and Figure�#C\mmdh\i�Cjpn`'�-++0$�dn�m`b\m_`_�]t�h\it�\n�oc`�]d]g`�ja� kjdio�\i_�adbpm`�\i\gtndn)

Nicole Elliott�dn�Hdupcj�>jmkjm\o`�=\ifÉn�n`idjm�\i\gtno�di�Gji_ji�\i_�^jq`mn� oc`� ajm`dbi� ̀ s^c\ib`'� dio`m`no� m\o`'� ̂ jhhj_dot� h\mf`on'� \i_� ̀ lpdot� di_`s`n)� @ggdjoo�c\n�rjmf`_�di�oc`�>dot�ja�Gji_ji�ajm�or`iot(adq`�t`\mn)�O`^cid^\g�<i\gtndn� c\n�\gr\tn�]``i� oc`� ]\^f]ji`�ja�c`m� om\_dib�h`ocj_jgjbt'� di� n\g`n� \i_�\n� \i� \i\gtno� rdocdi� oc`� Om`\npmt� _`k\moh`ion� ja� h\ejm� dio`mi\odji\g� ]\ifn)� Nc`� dn� \�h`h]`m�ja� oc`�Nj^d`ot�ja�O`^cid^\g�<i\gtnon�\i_�\�bm\_p\o`�ja� oc`�Gji_ji� N^cjjg�ja�@^jijhd^n)�

ix A B O U T T H E C O N T R I B U T O R S

Robin Griffiths� dn� ji`� ja� oc`� rjmg_Én� hjno� n`idjm� o`^cid^\g� \i\gtnon'� c\qdib� kp]gdnc`_� o`^cid^\g� m`n`\m^c� ajm� ajmot� t`\mn� \i_� ̂ j\pocjm`_� ocm``� ]jjfn)� C`� c\n�]``i�c`\_�ja�\nn`o�\ggj^\odji�\o�M\oc]ji`�=mjoc`mn�KG>�ndi^`�-++-'�jq`m( n``dib��-+�]dggdji�ja�diq`noh`ion'�\i_�dn�\_qdn`m�oj�orj�c`_b`�api_n'�@>P�Api_� \i_�M\ock`\^ji)�Amjh�,431�oj�-++-'�c`�r\n�^cd`a�o`^cid^\g�nom\o`bdno�\o�CN=>� E\h`n� >\k`g)� Kmdjm� oj� oc\o'� Bmdaadocn� r\n� o`^cid^\g� \i\gtno� \i_� E\k\i� nk`^d\gdno� \o�Bmd`q`nji�Bm\io�#,43.Ä,431$6� o`^cid^\g�\i\gtno�\i_�k\moi`m�\o�R)D)�>\mm� di� Cjib�Fjib'�Ojftj'�\i_�Gji_ji�#,42,Ä,43.$6�\i_�`lpdot�]mjf`m�\o�Kcdggdkn�\i_� ?m`r�#,411Ä,42,$)�Bmdaadocn�dn�\�h`h]`m�ja�oc`�H\mf`o�O`^cid^d\in�<nnj^d\odji6� ajmh`m�^c\dmh\i�ja�oc`�Dio`mi\odji\g�A`_`m\odji�ja�O`^cid^\g�<i\gtnon�#,44/Ä ,442$6�\i_�ajmh`m�^c\dmh\i�#,44+Ä,44.$�\i_�ijr�a`ggjr�ja�oc`�=mdodnc�Nj^d`ot� ja�O`^cid^\g�<i\gtnon)

Ted Hearne� dn� \� kmdq\o`� om\_`m� \i_� oc`� km`nd_`io� ja� \� ̂ jinpgodib� admh� rdoc� `sk`modn`�di�h\mf`o�\i\gtndn'�om\_dib�njaor\m`'�h\nn�knt^cjgjbt'�\i_�`^jijhd^� ]`c\qdjm)�C`\mi`�c\n�]``i�\i�\^odq`�om\_`m�\i_�nop_`io�ja�oc`�h\mf`on�ajm�orj� _`^\_`n)�Di�,44,'�c`�]`^\h`�\^lp\dio`_�rdoc�kjdio(\i_(gdi`�oc`jmt�\i_�di�,44.� h`o� >c\mg`n�?mphhji_'� rdoc� rcjh� ncjmogt� oc`m`\ao`m� c`� ajmh`_�\�]pndi`nn� \i_�rmdodib�k\moi`mncdk)�Ojb`oc`m�jq`m� oc`� g\no� o`i�t`\mn� oc`t�c\q`�^m`\o`_�\� g\i_h\mf�]j_t�ja�oc`jm`od^\g�\i_�`_p^\odji\g�rmdodibn�\]jpo�oc`�om\_dib�h`oc( j_jgjbt�ijr�fijri�\n�?mphhji_�B`jh`omt)�H\ejm�rmdodibn�di^gp_`�rjmf�ji� oc`�Kg_jo)^jh�R`]�ndo`�\i_�Oc`�G`nnjin'�\i�`so`indq`�dinomp^odji\g�n`md`n�\]jpo� h\mf`o� nomp^opm`'� h\mf`o� \i\gtndn'� \i_� om\_dib� km\^od^`)� C`\mi`Én� R`]� ndo`� dn� rrr)o`_od^f)^jh)

Robin Mesch'� ajpi_`m� \i_� >@J� ja� Mj]di� H`n^c� <nnj^d\o`n'� ̀ i\]g`n� kmja`n( ndji\g� om\_`mn� \i_� hji`t� h\i\b`mn� oj� ̂ jindno`iogt� h\sdhdu`� kmjado\]dgdot� \i_� jkodhdu`� oc`dm� kjmoajgdjn� pndib� c`m� kmjkmd`o\mt� om\_dib� hj_`gn� \i_� njaor\m`)� H`n^c� dn�\�kdji``m�\i_�`_p^\ojm� di� oc`� ad`g_�ja� o`^cid^\g�\i\gtndn�\i_�h\mf`o� oc`jmt)�Nc`�c\n�]``i�]pdg_dib�h\mf`o�hj_`gn� ajm�hjm`� oc\i�or`iot�t`\mn�\i_� c\n� ]``i� kmjadg`_� di� iph`mjpn� ]jjfn� np^c� \n� =gjjh]`mbÉn New Thinking in Technical Analysis6 Bulls, Bears and Millionaires6�The Outer Game of Trading6 The Day Trader's Advantage6 The Tao of Trading6�\i_ Women of the Pits)

x A B O U T T H E C O N T R I B U T O R S

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C H A P T E R 1

Drummond Geometry: Picking Yearly Highs and Lows in Interbank Forex Trading

T E D H E A R N E

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3 DRUMMOND GEOMETRY: PICKING YEARLY HIGHS AND LOWS IN INTERBANK FOREX TRADING

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