Pragmatic Watershed Assessment and Decision Support for...
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Pragmatic Watershed Assessment and Decision Support for Comprehensive Pollution Planning and Management Paul E. Stacey [email protected] 13 September 2017
Transcript of Pragmatic Watershed Assessment and Decision Support for...
Pragmatic Watershed Assessment and Decision Support for Comprehensive Pollution Planning and Management
Paul E. [email protected]
13 September 2017
Come gather ‘round peopleWherever you roamAnd admit that the watersAround you have grownAnd accept it that soonYou’ll be drenched to the boneIf your time to you is worth savin’Then you better start swimmin’ or you’ll sink like a stoneFor the times they are a-changin’
- Bob Dylan
The Times They Are A-Changin’
The Road Ahead…
Priorities for Ecosystem-Based Management
• “Well-being” Outcomes• Integrate Social-Economic-Environmental Processes• Analyze Multiple Drivers and Stressors Collectively• Select Introspective Environmental Indicators and Measures• Assess State in Context• Seek Sustainable and Balanced Solutions• Integrated Landscape Management Framework
Use a pragmatic approach towards measuring sustainability: The issue is indeed complex, more complex than the already complicated issue of measuring current well-being or performance.
Well-being is multi-dimensional: …includes social, economic and environmental dimensions.
Joseph Eugene Stiglitz is an American economist and a professor at Columbia University. He is a recipient of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences
Key Findings for Environmental Management
From production to well-being: …shift emphasis from measuring economic production to measuring people’s well-being.
Stiglitz, J., A. Sen and J.-P. Fitoussi. 2009.
Physical indicators for environmental pressures: …there is a need for a clear indicator of our proximity to dangerous levels of environmental damage (such as associated with climate change or the depletion of fishing stocks).
Taking stock: …not an easy task[!]. [Include] …indices that essentially focus on…how far we currently “overconsume” our resources.
Use Ecological Footprints (EF): …measures how much of the regenerative capacity of the biosphere is used up by human activities (consumption).
Ewing, B., et al. 2010. Global Footprint Network.
Well-being:
Plantier Santos, 2010
Well-being:
Figure 3. Systems taxonomy for resource flow indicators (Fiksel, Eason and Fredricksen, 2012).
Well-being is multi-dimensional:
Hagen, 2015
Measuring sustainability:
Indicators for environmental pressures:
ECOSYSTEMS AND THE BIODIVERSITY THEY EMBODY
CONSTITUTE “ENVIRONMENTAL CAPITAL” ON WHICH
HUMAN WELL-BEING HEAVILY DEPENDS.
Indicators for environmental pressures:
Indicators for environmental pressures:
Use a pragmatic approach:
Ecosystem Services Toolkit
Use a pragmatic approach:
Indicators for environmental pressures:
- Climate Change- Development- Food & Fiber- Resource Extraction- Ecosystem Instability
- Vegetative Cover- Forest Integrity- Core Forest- Fragmented Forest
Indicators for environmental pressures:
- Climate Change- Development- Food & Fiber- Resource Extraction- Ecosystem Instability
- Vegetative Cover- Forest Integrity- Core Forest- Fragmented Forest
Vegetative Cover
Action –Ecosystem-Based
Indicators for environmental pressures:
Taking stock:
Taking stock:
Taking stock:
Taking stock:
Taking stock:
Semi-Honest Paul Imaginative Paul
Human Nature – Another Complicating FactorTaking stock:
Scoping The Forest Integrity Indicator
Pre-Colonial – 95%
Civil War – 25-30%
1950 – 64% 1998-2006 – 59%
Eastford, CT. Ouimet, W. and K. JohnsonUCONN Center for Integrative Geosciences
Ecosystem Management HQ
NERRS Science Collaborative Buffers ProjectGreat Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve
Analysis Background & Objectives
• DEVELOP A GENERALIZED ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY THAT:• IS CONCEPTUALLY SIMPLE BUT CREDIBLE
• USES READILY-AVAILABLE OR ATTAINABLE LAND COVER METRICS
• AND IS SUITABLE FOR CUSTOMIZING BUFFER WIDTHS WITH RESPECT TO:• WATERSHED SIZE AND CONDITION
• WATERSHED SIZE AND BUFFER CONDITION
• DEVELOP AN INDICATOR OF ECOSYSTEM INTEGRITY THAT:• SUPPORTS THE ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY
• ASSESSES WATERSHED ECOSYSTEM INTEGRITY PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE
• CAN ASSESS NATURAL CAPITAL STATUS
• DEVELOP A DECISION SUPPORT FRAMEWORK (DSF) THAT IS:• USEFUL FOR LOCAL ASSESSMENT AND PLANNING
• SCALABLE TO ANY GEOGRAPHIC UNIT (POLYGON), E.G, WATERSHED, TOWN, AND BUFFER WIDTH
• ACCOMMODATES USER-DEFINED TARGETS FOR WATERSHED CONDITION, NATURAL CAPITAL, AND BUFFER LEVEL OF PROTECTION
• GUIDES ENVIRONMENTAL LAND MANAGEMENT POLICY, INCLUDING BUFFERS
• PREDICTS OUTCOMES IN TERMS OF ECOSYSTEM HEALTH AND NATURAL CAPITAL
Watershed and Buffer Metricsfor Generalized Analysis Methodology
• WATERSHED OR TOWN (SUB-UNITS AT SMALLEST SCALE LOCALLY USEFUL)• TOTAL AREA
• LAND COVER CATEGORY AREAS
• CORE AND FRAGMENTED FOREST AREAS
• BUFFERS FOR THREE STANDARD WIDTHS (100’, 200’ AND 300’)• PERENNIAL STREAM LENGTHS
• SHORELINE LENGTHS
• TOTAL AREA
• LAND COVER CATEGORY AREAS
• CORE AND FRAGMENTED FOREST AREAS (OR NATURAL COVER AREAS)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
1 26 51 76 101 126 151
Wat
ersh
ed S
ize
(acr
es)
Connecticut Coastal Watersheds
Watershed Size Distribution
Mean 8730
Median 7033
Minimum 1437
Maximum 46499
Forest Condition Indicator = Natural Capital• Based on a Forest Condition Normalized Indicator (NOT Valuation in
Dollars), Scaled from 0 to 1• 1.0 = 100% Forest = Natural Capital “Bank” is Full• 0.0 = No Forest = Natural Capital “Bank” is Empty• Applied to both watersheds and buffers
• Targets are Set by Local Authorities and the Public• Based on Local Needs and Interests• Considers Ecosystem Service Benefits to “Well-being”• “Level of Protection” options for watersheds and buffers• Decision Support Framework (DSF) assists with status and future scenarios
• For this Analysis, Target is set at 0.5 = 50% Forest
Calculating Forest Integrity/Natural CapitalThe Effective Forest Cover Indicator (EFCI)
EFC = ((FAF * TFF) + TCF)
Where: EFC = Effective Forest Cover (acres)TFF = Total Fragmented Forest (acres)TCF = Total Core Forest (acres)
And: FAF = Fragmented Forest Adjustment Factor= TFF/(TFF + TCF)
EFCI = EFC/TB
Where: EFCI = Effective Forest Cover Indicator (a fractional proportion)TB = Total Basin area (Acres)
An EFCI can be calculated for any geographic unit (polygon), e.g, watershed, town, and anybuffer width for which input data are available and for any past, present or future condition helpful to local planning.
Core Forest
Fragmented Forest
Non-Forest
If we conserve half the land and sea, 85% ofall species will be protected from extinctionand life on Earth enters the safe zone.
— E.O. Wilson
Standard widths have proven to be the most accepted buffer management approach adopted by states and municipalities that have adopted legal buffer requirements. Science supports widths in the range of 100’ to 300’ with reasonable consistency and derived benefits of:• Low Level: 100’
• Pollutant trapping• Physical attributes such as shading
• Medium Level: 200’• Hydrologic and pollutant benefits• biological/microbial mediation• riparian habitat benefits for wildlife
• High Level: 300’ • hydrologic character, floodplain function, and pollutant removal beenfits• habitat value for terrestrial wildlife• migratory corridors and connectivity for upland, wetland and aquatic species.
Buffers as A Management Tool
Calculating Effective Buffer Widths at Three Levels of Protection
ADJUSTING BUFFER WIDTH TO LOCAL CONDITIONS:
FACTOR 1: ADJUST TO WATERSHED SIZE
FACTOR 2: ADJUST TO WATERSHED CONDITION (I.E., EFCI FOR THE WATERSHED)
FACTOR 3: ADJUST TO BUFFER CONDITION (I.E., EFCI FOR THE BUFFER)
Adjusting Buffer Width for Watershed Size and Condition
Decision Support Framework for the Effective Forest Cover Indicator (EFCI)
An EFCI can be calculated for any geographic unit (polygon), e.g, watershed, town, or buffer and tested for user-defined past, present or future scenarios or targets helpful to local planning.
Output Input Parameters
Watershed Natural Capital Assessment, Scale 0-1.0 Fragmented Forest and Core Forest AreasTotal Basin Area
Buffer Natural Capital Assessment, Scale 0-1.0 Fragmented Forest and Core Forest AreasTotal Buffer Area
Buffer Widths Scaled to Watershed Size Watershed AreaStream Length
Buffer Widths Scaled to Watershed Size and Condition Watershed Fragmented and Core Forest AreasWatershed AreaStream Length
Buffer Widths Scaled to Watershed Size and Buffer Condition
Watershed AreaStream LengthBuffer Fragmented and Core Forest Areas
Buffer Widths Scaled to Watershed Size and Condition and Buffer Condition
Watershed AreaStream LengthWatershed Fragmented and Core Forest AreasBuffer Fragmented and Core Forest Areas
Decision Support Framework for the Effective Forest Cover Indicator (EFCI)
An EFCI can be calculated for any geographic unit (polygon), e.g, watershed, town, or buffer and tested for user-defined past, present or future scenarios or targets helpful to local planning.
Output Input Parameters
Watershed Natural Capital Assessment, Scale 0-1.0 Fragmented Forest and Core Forest AreasTotal Basin Area
Buffer Natural Capital Assessment, Scale 0-1.0 Fragmented Forest and Core Forest AreasTotal Buffer Area
Buffer Widths Scaled to Watershed Size Watershed AreaStream Length
Buffer Widths Scaled to Watershed Size and Condition Watershed Fragmented and Core Forest AreasWatershed AreaStream Length
Buffer Widths Scaled to Watershed Size and Buffer Condition
Watershed AreaStream LengthBuffer Fragmented and Core Forest Areas
Buffer Widths Scaled to Watershed Size and Condition and Buffer Condition
Watershed AreaStream LengthWatershed Fragmented and Core Forest AreasBuffer Fragmented and Core Forest Areas
THE DSF PROVIDES USER OPTIONS TO:
• MANAGE WATERSHEDS OR BUFFERS OR ANY COMBINATION
• SET LOCALLY-DEFINED TARGETS FOR WATERSHED AND BUFFER
MANAGEMENT
The Road Ahead…
Priorities for Landscape Management• Employ and Integrated, Ecosystem-based approach• Seek local input on Goals and Targets• Preserve what’s good• Repair or Nurture Recovery of what’s close to good• Restore, but recognize Recovery Potential and Limitations of
Restoration• Engage and motivate public to change behavior and lifestyle
considering the prevailing socio-economic setting• Re-engineer – mitigate to the Maximum Extent Practicable for
the Best Attainable Condition
Pragmatic Watershed Assessment and Decision Support for Comprehensive Pollution Planning and Management
Paul E. [email protected]
13 September 2017
