P.R. Shukla Indian Institute of Management … Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India ... Indian...

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Co-benefits of Low Carbon Transition in India: Aligning Development Perspective and Sector Approach

P.R. ShuklaIndian Institute of ManagementAhmedabad, India

Presented in International Expert Meeting on ‘2nd International Workshop on Sectoral GHG Emission Reduction Potential’, Organized by Ministry of the Environment, Japan, Paris, France, October 22, 2008


Energy and Carbon: Base Case

From 2005-2050:Annual Economic Growth: 7.2%Annual Population Growth: 0.9%

Increase in 2050 over 2005Economy 23 timesPopulation 1.56 times

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mto

e

Other RenewablesNuclearHydroGasOilCoalCommercial BiomassNon Com Biomass

Energy

Assumptions

Annual Improvement From 2005-2050:Energy Intensity: 3.14 (%)Carbon Intensity: 3.07 (%)Decarbonization of Energy: -0.07 (%)

Direct Investment in Energy Projects:2010-30: US$ 1.2 Trillion2030-50: US$ 2.3 Trillion

Results: Energy and Carbon Intensity

Carbon Emissions

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Milli

on T

on C

O2


Alternate Development VisionsAssumptions

1. Global Stabilization Target Assumption:• 550 ppmv CO2e Concentration (OR)• 3.4 W/m2 (OR)• @ 3o centigrade temperature increase

2. Two Development Pathways for India: (with same total CO2 emissions from 2005 to 2050)

1. Vision 1: Conventional Development path2. Vision 2: ‘Sustainability’ scenario

What path shall best deliver national development goals while fulfilling Climate Commitments?


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mill

ion

Ton

CO

2

OthersDevice Efficiency

Renewable Energy

Electricity (Fuel Switch)

CCS

Carbon Tax 7 22 40 67 100$/tCO2

1. Top-down/Supply-side actions

2. High Carbon Price as main instrument

3. Climate Focused Technology Push

Vision I: Managing Climate via Conventional Path


1. Low Carbon Price2. Bottom-up/Demand-side Actions3. Behavioural Change4. Diverse Technology Portfolio

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

OthersCCSTransport ModeUrban PlanningConsumptionRecyclingMaterial SubstitutionsAppliance EfficiencyRenewable Energy Building

Electricity (Fuel Switch)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mill

ion

Ton

CO

2

Renewable Energy Renewable

Vision II: Managing Climate via Sustainable Path


Energy Technology Mix in 2050

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Mto

e

Base Case

Conventional Dev. + Tax

Sustainability

Share of Renewable

Base 24 %C+T 34 %Sust. 47 %

Total Energy Demand

Base 3004 MtoeC+T 2945 MtoeSust. 2004 Mtoe


Co-benefits of Climate Actions

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mill

ion

tSO

2

Base Case

Sustainable Development + Low Carbon Tax

Conventional Path + High Carbon Price

Co-benefits: SO2 Emissions


CO2 Emissions & Price Trajectories

Base Case

Conventional Society

Sustainable Society

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2010 2020 2030 2040

Pric

e C

O2

(US

$/tC

O2)

2050

CO2 Price


Broadening Sector Perspective for Low Carbon Development


Urban - sector?

• Land-use Planning

• Building Choices

• Infrastructures

• Service Networks


Automobile – sector?Rush Hour Traffic in India

Rising Incomes and Small Cars

Tata Nano: $2500 QQ: $4000


Transport mode - sector?Bus Rapid Transport System

Public Transport: Metro Rail

Technologies for Train Corridors


Co-benefits of Regional Infrastructure

CoCo--benefits of Southbenefits of South--Asia Asia Integrated EnergyIntegrated Energy--Water MarketWater Market

Benefit (Saving) Cumulative from 2010 to 2030

$ Billion % GDP

Energy 60 Exa Joule 321 0.87

CO2 Equiv. 5.1 Billion Ton 28 0.08

SO2 50 Million Ton 10 0.03

Total 359 0.98

Spill-over Benefits / Co-Benefits

• More Water for Food Production (MDG1)

• 16 GW additional Hydropower (MDG1&7)

• Flood control (MDG1&7)

• Lower energy prices would enhance competitiveness of regional industries (MDG1)

MDG 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger, MDG 7: Environmental Sustainability

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F

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India

China

Iran

Pakistan

Afghanistan

OmanMyanmar (B urma)

Thailand

Nepal

Turkmenistan

Saudi Arabia

Tajikistan

Yemen

Bang ladesh

Sri Lanka

Bhutan

Uzbekistan

Somalia

United Arab Emirates

Qatar

Laos

Malaysia

Bahrain

IndonesiaMa ld ives

Pune

GayaKota

Guna

Gadag

K ochi

Patna

Del hi

Anand

D adraSuratOlpad

K alol

Panvel

H assan

D ispur

A mbala

N angal

K anpur

Jhansi

Ujj ai nJhabua

Valsad

N adiadRaj kot

Sol apurGuhagarChiptun

Chennai

N el lore

Kolkata

Sangrur

Sonipat

Aurai yaGwalior

Chotil a B haruch

PalmanerChittoor

Kokinada

LudhianaBathinda

Bareilly

Vijaypur

Mahesana

Tutikorin

MangaloreBangalore

Vijaywada

Faridabad

Ratnagi ri

Kayankulam

Coim batore

Jagdishpuri

Shahjahanpur

Vi shakhapattnam

Tiruchchi rappal li

Herat

MultanQuet ta

Khuzdar

Karachi

Delaram

Kandhar

South-ParsIranshaharBandar-e-Abbas

Legend Important PlacesExisting Gas Pipelines

Proposed Gas PipelinesExisting LNG terminalsProposed LNG terminalsExisting Gas Basin

Gas Pipelines under construction

Proposed Gas Basin¨


Dematerialization - sector?

0

200

400

600

800

1000

Dem

and

(Mill

ion

Ton)

Conventional Development

Sustainable Society

0

200

400

600

800

1000

Dem

and

(Mill

ion

Ton)


Sustainable Society

Cement

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500

100

200

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500

600

700

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Dem

and

(Mill

ion

Ton)

Steel


Sustainable SocietyD

eman

d (M

illio

n To

n)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Steel


Sustainable Society100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Conventional DevelopmentConventional Development

Sustainable Society

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40


Sustainable Society

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40


Sustainable Society

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10

15

20

25

30

35

Dem

and

(Mill

ion

Ton)


Sustainable Society

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Paper

Dem

and

(Tril

lion

Lum

en h

rs)

0

1000

2000

3000


Sustainable Society

Lighting

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050


• Developing Countries have opportunities to make choices which can vitally alter future emissions path.

• Sector approach for developing countries should be different. The key sectors could be infrastructure, 3R, urban design etc.

• Sector mitigation strategies should focus on co-benefits

• Sector approach should aim for cooperation rather than competition.

• Important to communicate why sector approach? what sectors?how to implement it in a cooperative framework?

Conclusions

Thank you

P.R. Shukla Indian Institute of Management … Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India ... Indian...

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