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© 2017 Kennemer Foods International Inc. All rights reserved. Confidential.
Global Cocoa pricesKakao Konek – 6 Dec 2017
Simon BakkerKennemer Foods
© 2017 Kennemer Foods International Inc. All rights reserved. Confidential.
Key Determinants of Global Prices
Annual production
Weather and climate
New hectarage
Geopolitical issues
Supply Demand
Consumption in US / Europe
Emerging markets
Rise in per capita income
© 2017 Kennemer Foods International Inc. All rights reserved. Confidential.
Developments over last year
• Prices decreased last year
© 2017 Kennemer Foods International Inc. All rights reserved. Confidential.
Developments over last year
• Prices decreased last year• Current prices still depressed
© 2017 Kennemer Foods International Inc. All rights reserved. Confidential.
Developments over last year
• Prices decreased last year• Current prices still depressed• Main causes:– Unexpected big harvest in Ivory Coast – Weaker demand in emerging markets Russia and
Brazil
© 2017 Kennemer Foods International Inc. All rights reserved. Confidential.
Developments over last year
• Prices decreased last year• Current prices still depressed• Main causes:– Unexpected big harvest in Ivory Coast – Weaker demand in emerging markets Russia and
Brazil• Where do we go from here?
© 2017 Kennemer Foods International Inc. All rights reserved. Confidential.
Developments over last year
• Prices decreased last year• Current prices still depressed• Main causes:– Unexpected big harvest in Ivory Coast – Weaker demand in emerging markets Russia and
Brazil• Where do we go from here?
© 2017 Kennemer Foods International Inc. All rights reserved. Confidential.
INDUSTRY Outlook – DEMAND SIDE
© 2017 Kennemer Foods International Inc. All rights reserved. Confidential.
Trends: Demand Outlook
• Demand resurgence in traditional markets
© 2017 Kennemer Foods International Inc. All rights reserved. Confidential.
Resurgence in Traditional Markets
Source: CCS Cocoa, 2017
© 2017 Kennemer Foods International Inc. All rights reserved. Confidential.
Trends: Demand Outlook
• Demand resurgence in traditional markets• Consumption picking up significantly in
emerging markets – Russia– Turkey– Brazil– China and India
© 2017 Kennemer Foods International Inc. All rights reserved. Confidential.
Significant pick up in Emerging Markets
Source: CCS Cocoa, 2017
© 2017 Kennemer Foods International Inc. All rights reserved. Confidential.
Chocolate Sales Outlook (Growth 2014-2022)
Source: Euromonitor, 2017
© 2017 Kennemer Foods International Inc. All rights reserved. Confidential.
Trends: Demand Outlook
• Demand resurgence in traditional markets• Consumption picking up significantly in
emerging markets – Russia– Turkey– Brazil– China and India
• Overall positive outlook
© 2017 Kennemer Foods International Inc. All rights reserved. Confidential.
INDUSTRY outlook – SUPPLY SIDE
© 2017 Kennemer Foods International Inc. All rights reserved. Confidential.
Trends: Supply Outlook
• Ivory Coast – expected revert to “normal” production
• Ghana – production steady
© 2017 Kennemer Foods International Inc. All rights reserved. Confidential.
Trends: Supply Outlook
• Ivory Coast – expected revert to “normal” production
• Ghana – production steady• Indonesia– continuous dramatic decline
© 2017 Kennemer Foods International Inc. All rights reserved. Confidential.
Indonesia in dramatic decline
Indonesia Main Crop Trend
Source: CCS Cocoa, 2017
© 2017 Kennemer Foods International Inc. All rights reserved. Confidential.
Trends: Supply Outlook
• Ivory Coast – expected revert to “normal” production
• Ghana – production steady• Indonesia– continuous dramatic decline• Minor Origins– Ecuador: bright spot– Not replicated in other minor origins
© 2017 Kennemer Foods International Inc. All rights reserved. Confidential.
Minor Origins
Source: CCS Cocoa, 2017
Ecuador Cocoa Production Brazil Cocoa Production
Nigeria Cocoa Production Cameroon Cocoa Production
© 2017 Kennemer Foods International Inc. All rights reserved. Confidential.
Trends: Supply Outlook
• Ivory Coast – expected revert to “normal” production
• Ghana – production steady• Indonesia– continuous dramatic decline• Minor Origins– Ecuador: bright spot– Not replicated in other minor origins
• Lower prices reducing new planting
© 2017 Kennemer Foods International Inc. All rights reserved. Confidential.
Conclusion
• Much brighter prospects in medium to long term
• Philippines– Building cacao industry resilience– Short term volatility– Increasing yield is key– Raising Philippine brand as high quality origin
© 2017 Kennemer Foods International Inc. All rights reserved. Confidential. 23
Our cacao farmers…..
15,000 and counting…..
©2017 Kennemer Foods International Inc. All rights reserved.
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