PowerPoint-Präsentation - ECMWF€¦ · 2.) Operational forecasts of the COSMO model (provided by...
Transcript of PowerPoint-Präsentation - ECMWF€¦ · 2.) Operational forecasts of the COSMO model (provided by...
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Quantile based point-to-point validations
IACETHInstitute for Atmospheric and Climate Science
Johannes Jenkner (ETH Zurich Switzerland)Cornelia Schwierz (University of Leeds UK)
Silke Dierer (MeteoSwiss Switzerland)
3rd International Verification Methods Workshop Reading UK 01/02/2007
Pros and Cons of empirically bias corrected contingency tables
+ =Model
Observations
Matching
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Outline
Motivation
Methodology and Proceeding
Present benefits and drawbacks
Application to QPF in Switzerland
Summary
IAC
ETH
Inst
itute
for A
tmos
pher
ic a
nd C
limat
e S
cien
ce
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Motivation
x 2
Interpretation of (equitable) categorical scores ?
IAC
ETH
Inst
itute
for A
tmos
pher
ic a
nd C
limat
e S
cien
ce
Perfect matching possible at any gridpoint ?
8mm threshold
8mm threshold
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OutlineIA
CET
HIn
stitu
te fo
r Atm
osph
eric
and
Clim
ate
Sci
ence
Motivation
Methodology and Proceeding
Present benefits and drawbacks
Application to QPF in Switzerland
Summary
![Page 5: PowerPoint-Präsentation - ECMWF€¦ · 2.) Operational forecasts of the COSMO model (provided by MeteoSwiss) - nonhydrostatic and fully elastic dynamics - 7km grid spacing →period](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022050209/5f5bc1af7ddc2c75bf64add6/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Methodology and ProceedingIA
CET
HIn
stitu
te fo
r Atm
osph
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and
Clim
ate
Sci
ence
Equality
1.) Computation of local precipitation quantiles2.) Bias equal to quantile difference3.) Advanced contingency table4.) Determination of pattern overlap
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Methodology and ProceedingIA
CET
HIn
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r Atm
osph
eric
and
Clim
ate
Sci
ence
hits misses / false alarms correct negatives
POD FAR
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Methodology and ProceedingIA
CET
HIn
stitu
te fo
r Atm
osph
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and
Clim
ate
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ence
Hanssen-Kuipers discriminant equal to Heidke skill score:
Binomial distribution of misses:
Variance of HK proportional to 1/N:
→ multiple uncertainty for extreme
quantiles!!!
![Page 8: PowerPoint-Präsentation - ECMWF€¦ · 2.) Operational forecasts of the COSMO model (provided by MeteoSwiss) - nonhydrostatic and fully elastic dynamics - 7km grid spacing →period](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022050209/5f5bc1af7ddc2c75bf64add6/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
OutlineIA
CET
HIn
stitu
te fo
r Atm
osph
eric
and
Clim
ate
Sci
ence
Motivation
Methodology and Proceeding
Present benefits and drawbacks
Application to QPF in Switzerland
Summary
![Page 9: PowerPoint-Präsentation - ECMWF€¦ · 2.) Operational forecasts of the COSMO model (provided by MeteoSwiss) - nonhydrostatic and fully elastic dynamics - 7km grid spacing →period](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022050209/5f5bc1af7ddc2c75bf64add6/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Present benefits and drawbacksIA
CET
HIn
stitu
te fo
r Atm
osph
eric
and
Clim
ate
Sci
ence
+ fair comparisons possible+ useful information about model behaviour
(model developers)+ only misses are counted+ accuracy limit can be implemented
(pixels with a negligible absolute difference are omitted)
- definition of quantiles:samples with non-rain data not easy to handle / cut-off for low intensities necessary
- quantiles less intuitive than fixed thresholds (end-users)- extreme quantiles (Q < 0.05 and Q > 0.95) suffer from small sample sizes
![Page 10: PowerPoint-Präsentation - ECMWF€¦ · 2.) Operational forecasts of the COSMO model (provided by MeteoSwiss) - nonhydrostatic and fully elastic dynamics - 7km grid spacing →period](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022050209/5f5bc1af7ddc2c75bf64add6/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
OutlineIA
CET
HIn
stitu
te fo
r Atm
osph
eric
and
Clim
ate
Sci
ence
Motivation
Methodology and Proceeding
Present benefits and drawbacks
Application to QPF in Switzerland
Summary
![Page 11: PowerPoint-Präsentation - ECMWF€¦ · 2.) Operational forecasts of the COSMO model (provided by MeteoSwiss) - nonhydrostatic and fully elastic dynamics - 7km grid spacing →period](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022050209/5f5bc1af7ddc2c75bf64add6/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Application to QPF in SwitzerlandIA
CET
HIn
stitu
te fo
r Atm
osph
eric
and
Clim
ate
Sci
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Comparison of daily precipitation sums:1.) Observational analysis (provided by Christoph Frei)
- based on ∼ 450 pluviometers- gridded in connection with a monthly climatology
2.) Operational forecasts of the COSMO model (provided by MeteoSwiss)- nonhydrostatic and fully elastic dynamics- 7km grid spacing
→ period of 2001 - 2005
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Application to QPF in SwitzerlandIA
CET
HIn
stitu
te fo
r Atm
osph
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and
Clim
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Sci
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Relative quantile difference (Q90COSMO - Q90obs.) / Medianobs.
0
0
DJF MAM
JJA SON -250 %
-250 %
250 %
250 %
500 %
500 %
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Application to QPF in SwitzerlandIA
CET
HIn
stitu
te fo
r Atm
osph
eric
and
Clim
ate
Sci
ence
Hanssen-Kuipers score for 90%.
DJF MAM
SONJJA 0
0
0.5
0.5
1
1
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Application to QPF in SwitzerlandIA
CET
HIn
stitu
te fo
r Atm
osph
eric
and
Clim
ate
Sci
ence
Spatial means of intensity spectrum
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OutlineIA
CET
HIn
stitu
te fo
r Atm
osph
eric
and
Clim
ate
Sci
ence
Motivation
Methodology and Proceeding
Present benefits and drawbacks
Application to QPF in Switzerland
Summary
![Page 16: PowerPoint-Präsentation - ECMWF€¦ · 2.) Operational forecasts of the COSMO model (provided by MeteoSwiss) - nonhydrostatic and fully elastic dynamics - 7km grid spacing →period](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022050209/5f5bc1af7ddc2c75bf64add6/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
SummaryIA
CET
HIn
stitu
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r Atm
osph
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Clim
ate
Sci
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Simplification of contingency table
Symmetric setting of HK bene-ficial
Amplitude andmatching errors
independent from each other
Straightforward application3.)
1.) 2.)
4.)
Bias
HK