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SacramentoRiver
Delta
Conceptual models & functional relationships
Coupled modelling
Spatially explicit analyses
Multiple EFT outputs
Relative suitability
Absolute effect size
Focal species Performance indicator (incomplete listing)
Refer
ence
ca
se
Alt.
1
Alt.
2
Alt.
n
Upper and Middle Sacramento River IndicatorsFall Chinook Suitable spawning habitat (CS1; 000s ft2) 3,738 4,081
(9.2%)4,069
(8.9%)3,998
(6.9%)
Late Fall Chinook Suitable spawning habitat (CS1; 000s ft2) 1,272 1,195(-6.0%)
1,187(-6.7%)
1,232(-3.1%)
Winter ChinookJuvenile stranding index (CS4) 0.085 0.106
(-2.1%)0.094
(-0.9%)0.101
(-1.6%)
Suitable rearing habitat (CS2; 000s ft2) 37,153 37,602(1.2%)
37,804(1.8%)
37,101(-0.1%)
Effect size box plots
Yearly, monthly, daily, hourly resultsScenario:
Water year:Location of interest:
Units Percentage
1995
VERSION 2 (HISTORICAL)
TURNER CUT NR HOLT CA
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
We
ight
Ent
rain
me
nt (
%)
Export:Import Ratio
DeltaEFT - Delta Smelt Entrainment Report
Location Weight
Particle Tracking Model logistic fitDelta Smelt Entrainment
0
0.002
0.004
0.006
0.008
0.01
0.012
0.014
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
01-M
ar
08-M
ar
15-M
ar
22-M
ar
29-M
ar
05-A
pr
12-A
pr
19-A
pr
26-A
pr
03-M
ay
10-M
ay
17-M
ay
24-M
ay
31-M
ay
07-J
un
14-J
un
21-J
un
28-J
un
05-J
ul
12-J
ul
Da
ily
We
igh
t
Flo
w (
CFS
)
Period of Interest
Old and Middle River (OMR) Flows
Daily weightsOMR FlowWeighted flowZero flow
Spatial visualizations
Net effect scoresUpper & Middle Sacramento River Ecoregion
ESO LOS HOS
+ – + – + –
Fall 5 5 5
Late Fall 1-ES 1-ES
Spring 3-ES 5 3-RS
Winter 1-RS
Steelhead
Bank swallow
Green Sturgeon 3-RS 3-RS 3-RS
Cottonwood 1-ES 1-ES
Woody Debris 1-RS
Delta Ecoregion
Fall +/– +/–
Late Fall 3-ES 3-ES 2-ES
Spring +/– +/–
Winter 3-ES 3-ES 2-ES
Steelhead 3-ES 3-ES 2-ES
Splittail 6 6 6
Delta smelt 6
Longfin smelt 6
Invasives 3-ES 4 3-ES
Tidal wetlands 3-RS 3-RS 3-RS
EFT applications to date
1. Shasta Lake Water Resources Investigation2. Sites Reservoir analysis3. BDCP upstream effects analyses4. BDCP alternatives analyses
Target flow guidelines
Persistent conflicting trade-offs…
The problem
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11YearTu
rn-T
akin
g O
ptim
izat
ion
Busi
ness
As U
sual
An alternative paradigm: turn taking optimization
Turn-taking optimization
Search uses Particle Swarm
Optimization algorithm
Uses cloud computing for fast processing
Reconfigured CALSIM modeling suite to run in single year mode
State-dependent piorities increase potential solutions
Ecological results of turn-taking
Key messages
1. No single best way to operate the water system. 2. EFT’s turn taking optimization allows for more
flexibility and solutions for more species.3. Water managers need real-time operational tools
paired with adaptive management to move beyond the status quo.
Thank you!
Improving multi-objective ecological flow management with flexible priorities and turn-taking: a case study from the Sacramento River and Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. - San Francisco Estuary & Watershed Science, March 2018.
Ryan [email protected]
