PowerPoint Presentation · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Sarah Martucci Created Date:...
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Applying Adaptive Management to
Improve Water-Quality Decision Making
for Restoring the Nation’s Largest
Estuary
Presented by Scott Phillips
USGS
Scott Ator, John Brakebill, Mike Langland, Joel
Blomquist and Doug Moyer
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Importance of the Nation’s Largest Estuary Ecological Fisheries and migratory
birds
Economic $1 trillion value
Recreation and heritage
Degraded condition
Chesapeake Bay Program
Executive Order
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Water Quality Issues and TMDL Poor DO, loss of SAV
Decline in fisheries
TMDL Achieve water-quality
standards
Reduce nutrients and sediment
States and federal agencies
Implement actions by 2025
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Chesapeake Bay
Program and TMDL
Federal EPA
DOI, USDA, NOAA, DoD
Six States & DC
Bay Commission
Local Governments
TMDL Watershed implementation
plans
Two year milestones
2017 evaluation
Adaptive management
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Enhance use in CBP
CBP decision framework
NRC report
Modeling, monitoring
and research to assess
and explain change
Learning and applying
new findings
Reduce uncertainty in
decision making
Adaptive Management
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Rockfish, Bluefish
Menhaden Habitat
Shad, Herring, Perch and
Rockfish Spawning
Habitat
-Water-quality
standards
-Nutrients and
sediment
allocations
-Model
scenarios
Source: EPA
Bay Grasses
Habitat
Summertime
Crab Habitat
Setting Goals
Oyster, Crab,
Croaker and
Spot
Habitat
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Management Strategies Watershed
Implementation
Plans
Plan and prioritize
Finer spatial
information
CBP models
SPARROW model
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Sources-Nitrogen
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Monitoring Networks
Watershed
Estuary
Used to calibrate
CBP models
Improvements
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Monitoring Improvements Water quality
Ag and urban areas
Small watershed
research
Implementation
reporting
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Assess Performance and Evaluate
Expected
reductions
Model predictions
Two-year milestones
Monitoring
Trends
Indicators
Assess change
Better compare
model and
monitoring results
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Progress Towards Nutrient Allocations(modified from Hirsch and others, 2010)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
Susquehanna River At Conowingo, MarylandTotal Phosphorus Load (tons per year)
Load Flow-Normalized Load Allocation
Annual Load
TMDL Load Allocation
For entire Susquehanna Watershed
Flow-Normalized Load
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Explain Water-Quality Change
Sources
Management actions
Streamflow variability
Response times
Implications Effect of BMPs
Milestones
2017 evaluation
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Summarize and
communicate
Improve understanding
Reduce uncertainty
Short-term adjustments
Implementation
2-year milestones
Longer-term adjustment
TMDL allocations in 2017
Modeling and monitoring
Manage Adaptively: Adjust
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Challenges and
Summary
Major estuaries
Opposition to increased
regulation
Inadequate funding and
policy
Citizen involvement
Economic
considerations
Population growth
Science for improved
decision making