PowerPoint Presentation · 9/6/2017 ©2017 iCIMS Inc. All Rights Reserved. U.S. Growth $35,000...

9/6/2017

©2017 iCIMS Inc. All Rights Reserved.©2016 iCIMS Inc. All Rights Reserved. ©2017 iCIMS Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Faster, Smarter, Stronger:

Getting Over Your Data Fears &Getting a Grip on Hiring Trends

Josh Wright

iCIMS Chief Economist

Tennessee SHRM 2017

©2017 iCIMS Inc. All Rights Reserved.©2017 iCIMS Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Agenda

• U.S. Labor Market Outlook

• The Changing Nature of Work

• The Economics of Talent Acquisition

©2017 iCIMS Inc. All Rights Reserved.


Warm-Up: Polling Question

Are you satisfied with your own ability to understand

labor market trends?

9/6/2017


Warm-Up: Polling Question

What proportion of your hiring managers do you think are

satisfied with their own ability to understand labor market

trends?


My Background

iCIMS, Inc.• Analysis of U.S. labor markets and hiring trends

• Building novel labor market indicators

Previously at:

• Bloomberg – macroeconomic analysis, novel economic indicators,

frequent commentator on Bloomberg Radio and Bloomberg TV.

• The Federal Reserve – financial crisis response, research, and

policy advising across the legislative and executive branches

of the federal government.

Twitter: @JWrightStuff


U.S. Labor Market Outlook


(1/3)

9/6/2017


U.S. Growth

$35,000

$39,000

$43,000

$47,000

$51,000

$55,000

1990 2000 2010

U.S. Real GDP per capita

Source: BEA


U.S. Growth

7.6%

4.0%

5.6%4.9% 5.1%

4.3% 4.4% 4.3%3.6%

2.8%2.1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

Average Annual Real Growth Rate.

Source: BEA


A Long-Lived But Lackluster Recovery

(800,000)

(600,000)

(400,000)

(200,000)

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

1980 1990 2000 2010

Strong Growth in Payrolls

3-Month Average Breakeven Rate

Source: BLS

9/6/2017


High Hopes for 2017

90%

95%

100%

105%

110%

115%

Jan-2015 Jul-2015 Jan-2016 Jul-2016 Jan-2017

"Soft" Data "Hard" Data

Oct. 2016

Source: FRED


Growth Outlook & Recession Risk

-12%

-8%

-4%

0%

4%

8%

12%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

1990 1998 2006 2014

Growth Outlook: Looking Good

Leading Economic Index (ls) U.S. GDP (rs)

Source: BEA, Conference Board


69%

17%

17%

Domestic Spending - Q1 2017

Consumption Investment Government

Engines of Growth

Exports

Imports

Source: BEA

16%

13%

9/6/2017


Household Balance Sheets Look Healthier

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1959 1969 1979 1989 1999 2009

Mortgage Debt / Disposable income

Source: FRED


… But New Vulnerabilities Lurk

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2003 2007 2011 2015

Household Debt / Income

Total Mortgage (ls) Student Loan (rs)

Source: FRBNY


Lynchpin to the Outlook

(800,000)

(600,000)

(400,000)

(200,000)

-

200,000

400,000

2001 2005 2009 2013 2017

Nonfarm Payroll Growth

3-Month Average Breakeven Rate

Source: BLS

9/6/2017


100,000

110,000

120,000

130,000

140,000

150,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Strong Growth in Payrolls

Th

ou

san

ds

Another Look at Job Growth

203kmonthly

average

101kmonthly

average

160kmonthly

average

Source: BLS


Full Employment?

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Unemployment Rate Sustainable Rate

Source: BLS


Pool of Officially “Unemployed”

-

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2000 2005 2010 2015

Unemployed Worker / Vacancy

Source: BLS

9/6/2017


More Openings / Unemployed

-

4

8

12

16

20

- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Beveridge CurveUnemployment

(millions)

Openings (millions) Source: BLS

2015-17

2008-2010 2011-13

2000-08

2014


Wage Growth: Still Moderate

Source: BLS

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

2002 2007 2012 2017

Year-Over-Year Change

Average Hourly Earnings Employment Cost Index


50%

54%

58%

62%

66%

1948 1958 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008

Employment / Population Ratio

Empl./Pop. Avg 1980-2007Source: BLS

Demographics

9/6/2017


Demographics

Source: BLS

57%

59%

61%

63%

65%

67%

69%

1948 1958 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008

U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate

LFPR Avg. 1980-2007


Dwindling Slack

3%

5%

7%

9%

11%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

1994 1999 2004 2009 2014

Under-employment (ls) Unemployment (rs)

Source: BLS


The Changing Nature of Work


(2/3)

9/6/2017


Contingent Work & the Gig Economy

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Google Search Interest Relative to Peak

"gig economy" "sharing economy"

Source: Google Trends


Contingent Work: Temps

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Temp Work as % of Payrolls

Source: BLS


Contingent Work: New BLS Survey

• First survey by BLS since 2005.

• Conducted May 2017

• Results expected late 2017 or early 2018.

• How many questions do you think they have added?


9/6/2017


Contingent Work: Taxonomies


Preferred

Choice

Out of

Necessity

Primary Income Supplemental Income

Free agents

30% | 49 million

Reluctants

14% | 23 million

Casual earners

40% | 64 million

Financially strapped

16% | 26 million

Share of working-age population engaged in independent work

Source: 2016 McKinsey Global Institute survey of ~8,000 US and European respondents


Contingent Work: Taxonomies

Employers

Temp

Agencies

Contracting

Firms

Independent

Contractors

Mobile-Enabled

Solo Freelancers

Brokers

Marketplaces


©2017 iCIMS Inc. All Rights Reserved.©2017 iCIMS Inc. All Rights Reserved.©2017 iCIMS Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Flexibility vs. Unpredictability

Managing the unpredictability of contingent work

• Hybrid status: “dependent contractors”

• Portable benefits

• Encourage saving

• Better labeling: breadwinning vs. supplementary

9/6/2017


Other Shifts: Industry Composition

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

1939 1949 1959 1969 1979 1989 1999 2009

Proportions of Payrolls

Manufacturing Retail

Education & Healthcare Professional/Business ServicesSource: BLS


Shifting Industries

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Shrinking Footprints...

Retail Manufacturing

Pro

po

rtio

n o

f Payro

lls

Source: BLS


Shifting Industries

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Healthcare Professional/Business Services

Pro

po

rtio

n o

f Payro

lls

… and Growing Ones

Source: BLS

9/6/2017


Shifting Occupations


Shifting Occupations

60%23%

10%3% 3%

Production

Management & Administration

Maintenance & Repair

Protective Service

Transportation

Production occupations are more likely to be at risk

Source: BLS projections


3,500+ Customers

2.3 million

Jobs per Year32.2 million

Applicants per Year

Real-time & granular

Full life-cycle of applying and hiring

iCIMS Hiring Data

9/6/2017


BLS-like Data

Hires Openings

Talent Supply

and Demand

HR Metrics

Time-to-Fill

BLS = U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Industry

Manufacturing

Trade, Transport. &

Utilities

Retail Trade

Professional & Business

Services

Finance

Information

Healthcare & Ed.

Leisure/Hospitality

Other Services

Occupation Type

Engineers & Scientists

Food Preparation

Maintenance & Repair

Arts Occupations

Healthcare Workers

Educators

Legal

Sales

et al.

Details by:

iCIMS Data: Breaking It Down


iCIMS Data: Monthly Hiring Indicator

Nationwide

Growth

4% Hires

Details by Industry

-3% Healthcare & Social Assistance

9% Retail Trade

Details by Location

0.4% West Region

13% Chicago

6% Openings


iCIMS Data: Growth in Hires

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16

Growth in Hires

Full-Time Not Full-Time Part-TimeSource: iCIMS

Yo

Y o

f 3

-Mo

nth

Avera

ge

9/6/2017


Source: iCIMS

43%

20%

17%

6%

14%

Technical Healthcare

Healthcare Support


Community and Social Service

Other

62%14%

24%

Sales and Related Occupations


Other

Healthcare

& Social Services Retail Trade

iCIMS Data: Occupations


42%

10%

48%


Sales & Related

Other

Professional

& Business Services


22%

16%

20%

43%

Production Occupations

Sales & Related Occupations


Other

Manufacturing

Source: iCIMS


“Other” Occupations = 48%

Arts, Design, Entertainment,Sports, & Media

9%

Computers & Mathematics 9%

Business & Financial Operations 8%

Protective Services 4%

Production Occupations 3%

Architecture & Engineering 3%

Food Preparation & Serving Related

3%

Professional

& Business Services


“Other” Occupations = 43%

Computer & Mathematics 9%

Installation, Maintenance, & Repair

8%

Architecture & Engineering 7%

Business & Financial Operations 6%

Healthcare Support 5%

Manufacturing

9/6/2017


Skills Gaps?

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016

Job Openings & Hires

Openings Hires

Millio

ns

(3m

Avera

ge)

Source: BLS


The Economics of Talent Acquisition


(3/3)


The Technologization of TA

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2004 2008 2012 2016

Google Search Interest Relative to Peak

"HR Data" "HR Analytics"Source: Google Trends

9/6/2017


Technologization of TA vs. Other Industries

E-Commerce

Financial Markets

Short-Term Housing Online marketplaces• Efficiency

• Price transparency

• High-volume, often short-termHousehold Tasks

Crafts Ride sharing



• High-stakes, long-term decisions

• Highly complex valuation

Intuition: human element

remains irreplaceable

Online House Hunting

Online Dating

Technologization of TA vs. Other Industries


Labor: Supply + Demand ≠ Price

Source: BLS

$-

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%

Job Opening Rate vs. Earnings

Accommodation

& Food

Professional

& BusinessConstruction

Manufacturing

Retail

Health Care

Finance &

Information

9/6/2017


$-

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%

Job Turnover vs. Earnings

Labor: Supply + Demand ≠ Price

Source: BLS

Accommodation

& Food

Professional

& Business

ConstructionManufacturing

Retail

Trade

Finance &

Information

Arts &

Entertainment


Price Alone No Prices “Prices Plus”

Wheat & Oil Organ Donation Housing

Stocks & Bonds Public Schools Residency Match

Any Commodity Online Dating Jobs

Matching Markets

“Matching” means selection based on other criteria,

in addition to or instead of price.


Matching Markets

To be successful, markets must be:

Thick Uncongested Safe


9/6/2017


Matching Markets

You won’t go to the market if it

doesn’t offer a good selection of

products and vendors.

Thick


Matching Markets

You won’t stay at the market if you

can’t get served quickly enough.

Uncongested


Matching Markets

You won’t be honest about your true

preferences unless it is safe to do so.

Safe

9/6/2017


Matching & Matchmaking

Solution?

Set up the right intermediaries who can:

1) Attract enough buyers and sellers,

2) Give them enough confidence to share information,

3) Organize that information, and

4) Match buyers and sellers.



Artificial Intelligence is Hot…

160

253

364

493

658

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Global AI Financing

Disclosed Funding ($M) Deals

Source: CBInsights


… But Prediction is Hard

9/6/2017


Artificial Intelligence or Intelligent Artifice?


@JWrightStuff

www.icims.com/hiring-insights

Questions?


Thank you!

6

0

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