PowerPoint Presentation · 7/10/2015 2 Form of advice 2015 • For accepted management...

7/10/2015

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ICES advice for herring stocks in 2016

Eskild Kirkegaard, ICES ACOM ChairPelagic AC, The Hague, July 8, 2015

Until 2009, ICES’ advice was based on the precautionary approach, extended by long-term considerations for maximising yield and considering ecosystem effects of the fishery.

In 2010, ICES started a formal implementation of the maximum sustainable yield-concept in its advice.

MSY – maximum sustainable yield

Basis for ICES Advice

Management Plan/StrategyConsistent with PA

Recognised by competent authorities

ICES MSY approach

No

No

All options in Outlook Table

ICES PA approach

Stock Categories1 Stocks with an accepted analytical assessment and forecast

for MSYMSY approach

2 Stocks with an analytical assessment and forecast accepted for trends only

MSY approach

3 Stocks with survey-based assessments indicating trends Precautionary approach.Developing MSY approach

4 Stocks with reliable time-series of catch data to approximate MSY

Precautionary approach.Developing MSY approach

5 Only catch or landings available Precautionary approach

6 Only landings available and largely discarded Precautionary approach

• Each category has several available methods dependent on stock status.

ICES MSY approach (Cat. 1 and 2)

Maximize long term average yield

Safeguard against low SSB

Stay within precautionary boundaries

MSY Btrigger

FMSY

SSB

more cautionneeded

F

ICES Cat. 3 approach

Advice mostly based on previous advice [or recent catch orlandings], modified according to index information (last 5-year index trend).

Advice: (previous advice) multiplied by index ratio:(average index last 2 years)/(average index previous 3 years)

also incorporating:1. Uncertainty cap (20% change limit, to dampen noise)2. Precautionary buffer (20% reduction if status in relation to

reference points unknown --- exceptions if significantincreases in stock size or reductions in exploitation)

o Advice does not change every year

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Form of advice 2015

• For accepted management plans/strategies advice on catch or TAC as specified in the plan

• For MSY advice catches equal to or less than catches that give F = FMSY

• For Cat 3-6 stocks precautionary catch is advised

• “Wanted catch” is used to describe fish that would have been landed in the absence of the EU landing obligation.

• The “unwanted catch” refers to the component that was previously discarded.

• These are not attempts to predict the future, they correspond to the proportions that have been observed in the past.

• Where possible catch advice is given, • For situations where discards are not quantifiable ‘wanted catch’ advice is

given.

• Not all situations are entirely standard and some decisions are marginal so some variation will occur.

New structure of advice

For each ecoregion

1. Ecosystem advice - to be developed 2016-2017

2. Fisheries advice developed during 2015-2016

3. Stock advice this year

8.3.10 Herring (Clupea harengus ) in Subdivis ion 30 (Bothnian Sea)

ICES stock advice

ICES advises that when the MSY approach is applied, catches in 2016 should be no more than 96 613 tonnes.

Stock development over time

The spawning-stock biomass (SSB) increased until the beginning of the 1990s; then the stock decreased, but showed an increase from the end of the 1990s and has been above MSY Btrigger since 1986. Fishing mortality has been below FMSY from the very beginning of the time-series, and just above since 2012. Recruitment is variable and increasing over time.

Figure 8.3.10.1 Herring in Subdivision 30. Summary of stock assessment (weights in thousand tonnes). Recruitment and SSB in 2015

are predicted. Recruitment, F, and SSB have confidence intervals (95%) in the plot.

Stock and exploitation status Table 8.3.10.1 Herring in Subdivision 30. State of the stock and fishery, relative to reference points .

Fishing pressure Stock size

2012 2013 2014 2013 2014 2015

Maximum Sustainable Yield

FMSY Above MSY

Btrigger Above trigger

Precautionary approach

Fpa, Flim

Undefined Bpa, Blim

Above potential

candidate

reference points

Management Plan FMGT - - - Not applicable SSBMGT - - - Not applicable

Advice

State of Stock

State and Exploitation

Catch options Table 8.3.10.2 Herring in Subdivision 30. The basis for the catch options. Weights in thousand tonnes. Recruitment in billions.

Variable Value Source Notes

F ages 3–5 (2015) 0.15 ICES (2015b) Fsq (2014)

SSB (2015) 669.461 ICES (2015b)

Rage1 (2016) 7.4 ICES (2015b) resampled from the distribution in 1988–2013



Total catch (2015) 111 ICES (2015b)

Commercial landings (2015) 111 ICES (2015b)

Discards (2015) 0 ICES (2015b) Discards are considered negligible

Table 8.3.10.3 Herring in Subdivision 30. The catch options. Weights in tonnes.

Rationale Catch (2016) Basis F (2016) SSB (2016) SSB (2017) %SSB change* % TAC change**

MSY approach 96 613 FMSY = 0.15 0.15 656 338 634 630 −3% −39%

FMSY ranges without

Advice Rule***

72 334 MSY Flower 0.11 660 605 661 929 0% −54%

96 613 MSY Fupper 0.15 656 338 634 630 −3% −39%

FMSY range with Advice

Rule included***

72 334 MSY Flower(AR) 0.11 660 605 661 929 0% −54%

114 231 MSY Fupper(AR) 0.18 653 044 615 327 −6% −28%

Zero catch 0 F2015 × 0 0 672 657 744 142 11% NA

Other options

99 643 F2015 0.15 655 785 631 075 −4% −37%

108 668 F2015 × 1.10 0.17 654 083 621 169 −5% −31%

117 711 F2015 × 1.20 0.19 652 385 611 805 −6% −25%

126 450 F2015 × 1.30 0.20 650 692 602 415 −7% −20%

*SSB in 2017 relative to SSB in 2016. **Catch in 2016 relative to TAC 2015.

*** According to ICES (2015c), FMSY ranges are specified with and without the ICES Advice Rule (AR). For ranges without the AR Flower

and Fupper are not modified by SSB in the catch advice year. For the ranges with the AR, SSB2015 > MSY Btrigger; therefore, Flower(AR) and

Fupper(AR) are not reduced. Basis of the advice

Table 8.3.10.4 Herring in Subdivision 30. The basis of the advice.

Advice basis MSY approach.

Management plan There is no management plan for herring in this area.

Quality of the assessment ICES has changed the basis for the assessment. The commercial tuning series used in previous assessments was no longer reliable, due to a steep decline in fishing effort to almost zero in two out of three locations contributing to the index. The last eight years of data which overlap with the new acoustic survey have been removed. The assessment results still show considerable uncertainties around the most l ikely estimates. It is anticipated that as the acoustic survey time-series is extended this will improve the quality of the assessment.

Catch options Intermediate year

Catch options TAC year

Basis of Advice

Quality of Assessment

Figure 8.3.10.2 Herring in Subdivision 30. Historical assessment results (final-year recruitment estimates included). The basis for the

assessment has changed this year which explains the difference between this year’s assessment and the assessment

undertaken in 2014 and earlier years.

Issues relevant for the advice New fishing reference points were defined in 2015 (ICES, 2015b) Stock boundaries for herring in Subdivisions 30 and 31 are still debated and will be discussed in a future benchmark of these stocks. Reference points Table 8.3.10.5 Herring in Subdivision 30. Reference points, values, and their technical basis.

Framework Reference

point Value Technical basis Source

MSY

approach

FMSY 0.15 ICES (2015b)

MSY Btrigger 316 000 t 2.5% percentile of BMSY distribution. ICES (2013)

Precautionary

approach

Blim Not defined.

Bpa Not defined.

Flim Not defined.

Fpa Not defined.

Management

plan

SSBMGT Not defined.

FMGT Not defined.

Basis of the assessment Table 8.3.10.6 Herring in Subdivision 30. The basis of the assessment.

ICES stock data

category

1 (ICES, 2015a).

Assessment type Age-based analytical assessment (SAM; ICES, 2015b) that uses catches in the model and in the forecast.

Input data Commercial catches (Finnish and Swedish landings, ages from catch sampling and survey, length

frequencies from catch sampling) from 1973 to 2014; two tuning fleets: one acoustic survey, 2007 to

2014 (3rd or 4th Q BIAS), and one commercial, 1990 to 2006 (trapnet). Annual maturity data from Finnish commercial trawl catches before spawning; natural mortalities (0.2 for all ages).

Discards and bycatch Not included, considered negligible.

Indicators None.

Other information Last benchmark in 2013 (IBPHer-30; ICES, 2013).

Issues relevant to Advice

Reference Points

Basis of Assessment

Quality od Assessment

North Sea, Eastern English Channel, Skagerrak and Kattegat Herring

North Sea Autumn Spawning Herring

Western Baltic Spring Spawners

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North Sea herring (IIIa, IV and VIId)

North Sea herring

North Sea herring North Sea herring

ICES stock data category 1 (ICES, 2015d)

Assessment type Age-based analytical assessment (SAM; ICES, 2015a) that uses catches in the model and in

the forecast.

Input data Commercial catches and four survey indices (IBTS Q1 1-ringer, IBTS0, SCAI, HERAS), annual

maturity data from HERAS survey, and natural mortalities from SMS North Sea multispecies

model.

Discards and bycatch Considered to be negligible.

Indicators None.

Other information The last benchmark for this stock occurred in 2012.

Working group Herring Assessment Working Group for the Area South of 62°N (HAWG)

North Sea herring

Area where NSAS are caught Fleet Fishery NSAS 2014 catches

North Sea fisheries A Directed herring fisheries 490 kt

B Bycatches of herring 14 kt

Division IIIa C Directed herring fisheries 10 kt

D Bycatches of herring 3 kt

North Sea herring


F ages (wr) 2-6 (2015) 0.21 ICES (2015a) Catch constraint

SSB (2015) 2 193 873 t ICES (2015a)

Rage(wr)0 (2015) 17 billion ICES (2015a)

Rage(wr)0 (2016) 33 billion ICES (2015a) Geometric mean over 2004–2014.

Total catch (2015) 492 073 t ICES (2015a)Agreed catch options with 46% transfer of C-fleet TAC

to the North Sea.

F

A-fleet

F

B-fleet

F

C-fleet

F

D-fleet

F ages (wr)

2-6

F ages (wr)

0-1

Catches

A-fleet*

Catches

B-fleet

Catche

s C-

fleet

Catche

s D-

fleet

SSB 2015

0.21 0.023 0.002 0.008 0.21 0.04 462 434 15 744 8 961 4 934 2 193 873

The basis for the catch options.

The intermediate year (2015) assumptions.

http://www.ices.dk/community/groups/Pages/HAWG.aspx

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North Sea herring

Basis

F values by fleet and total Catches by fleet Biomass*

A-fleet B-fleet C-fleet D-fleet F ages 2-6 F ages 0-1 A-fleet B-fleet C-fleet D-fleet SSB 2016SSB 2017**

%SSB change ***

%TAC change

A-fleet ****

1Management plan §

0.23 0.034 0.003 0.006 0.24 0.05 518 242 12 498 19 412 4 934 2 680 652 2 303 753 22 16

2 FMSY 0.26 0.034 0.004 0.006 0.27 0.05 589 360 12 498 19 968 4 934 2 632 220 2 167 987 20 32

3No fishing

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 039 767 3 060 322 39 −100

4No change in TAC

0.19 0.034 0.003 0.006 0.2 0.05 445 329 12 498 16 570 4 934 2 731 622 2 362 605 25 0

5TAC increase of 15%

0.22 0.034 0.003 0.006 0.23 0.05 512 128 12 498 19 055 4 934 2 685 034 2 269 797 22 15

6TAC reduction of 15%

0.16 0.034 0.002 0.006 0.17 0.05 378 530 12 498 14 084 4 934 2 777 841 2 457 599 27 −15

Herring in IIIa and Subdivisions 22 - 24

Herring IIIa, 22 - 24

ICES stock advice ICES advises that when the MSY approach is applied, catches in 2016 should be no more than 52 547 tonnes. This advice applies to the catch of western Baltic spring spawners (WBSS) in Divisions IVa east, IIIa, and Subdivisions 22–24.



ICES stock data category 1 (ICES, 2015e)

Assessment typeAge-based analytical assessment (SAM; ICES, 2015a) that uses catches in the model and in the

forecast.

Input data

Two acoustic, two trawl, and one larval survey indices (HERAS, GerAS (BIAS), IBTS Q1, IBTS Q3,

and N20). Catch statistics and corrections for historical area misreporting. Otolith

microstructure and morphometric methods to calculate the proportion of NSAS in the catches.

Discards and bycatch Discarding is considered to be negligible. The amount of slippage in Division IIIa is unknown.

Indicators None

Other information Last benchmarked in 2013 (ICES, 2013).

Working group Herring Assessment Working Group for the Area South of 62°N (HAWG)



F ages 3–6 (2015) 0.264 ICES (2015a) Catch constraint

SSB (2015) 129 845 t ICES (2015a)

Rage 0 (2015) 1 820 096 t ICES (2015a) Geometric mean 2009–2013



Total catch (2015) 41 483 t ICES (2015a) 46% transfer of C-fleet TAC to the North Sea

The basis for the catch options.

Option RationaleCatch

(2016)Basis

F catch

(2016)

SSB

(2016)*

SSB

(2017)*

% SSB

change**

% Advice

change***

1 FMSY 52 547 F = FMSY 0.32 141 251 144 710 +2.4 +18.2

2TAC-setting procedure

(ICES, 2015b)46 733 F = 0.28 0.280 141 803 150 136 +5.9 +5.2

3 Zero catch 0 F(2015) × 0 0 145 728 195 023 +33.8

4a FMSY ranges without

Advice Rule^

39 184 MSY Flower 0.23 142 496 157 236 +10.3 −11.8

5a 64 937 MSY Fupper 0.41 140 018 133 278 −4.8 +46.1

4bFMSY ranges with Advice

Rule included^

39 184F = MSY Flower(AR) × (SSB2016/

MSY Btrigger)0.23 142 496 157 236 +10.3 −11.8

5b 64 937F = MSY Fupper(AR) × (SSB2016/

MSY Btrigger)0.41 140 018 133 278 −4.8 +46.1

6 TAC roll-over − 15% 46 264 TAC(2015) × 0.85 0.277 141 847 150 528 +6.1 +4.1

7 TAC roll-over 53 907 TAC(2015) × 1 0.330 141 120 144 142 +2.1 +21.3

8 TAC roll-over + 15% 61 550 TAC(2015) × 1.15 0.385 140 363 137 782 −1.8 +38.5


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Long-Term Management Strategy for Herring in NS and IIIa

1. Every effort shall be made to maintain a minimum level of Spawning Stock Biomass (SSB) greater than 800,000 tonnes (Blim).

2. Where the SSB is estimated to be above 1.5 million tonnes the Parties agree to set quotas for the directed fishery and for by-catches in other fisheries, reflecting a fishing mortality rate of no more than 0.26 for 2 ringers and older and no more than 0.05 for 0 - 1 ringers.

3. Where the SSB is estimated to be below 1.5 million tonnes but above 800,000 tonnes, the Parties agree to set quotas for the direct fishery and for by-catches in other fisheries, reflecting a fishing mortality rate on 2 ringers and older equal to: 0.26-(0.16*(1,500,000-SSB)/700,000) for 2 ringers and older, and no more than 0.05 for 0 - 1 ringers

4. Where the SSB is estimated to be below 800,000 tonnes the Parties agree to set quotas for the directed fishery and for by-catches in other fisheries, reflecting a fishing mortality rate of less than 0.1 for 2 ringers and older and of less than 0.04 for 0-1 ringers.

5. Where the rules in paragraphs 2 and 3 would lead to a TAC which deviates by more than 15 % from the TAC of the preceding year the parties shall fix a TAC that is no more than 15 % greater or 15 % less than the TAC of the preceding year. However, if the resulting fishing mortality rate would be more than 10% higher or more than 10% lower than that indicated by the rules in paragraphs 2 and 3, the TAC shall be fixed at a level corresponding to a fishing mortality that is respectively 10% higher or 10% lower than that indicated by the rules of paragraphs 2 & 3.

6. Notwithstanding paragraph 5 the Parties may, where considered appropriate, reduce the TAC to a level that corresponds to a fishing mortality more than 10 % lower than that indicated by the rules of paragraphs 2 and 3.

7. By-catches of herring may only be landed in ports where adequate sampling schemes to effectively monitor the landings have been set up. All catches landed shall be deducted from the respective quotas set, and the fisheries shall be stopped immediately in the event that the quotas are exhausted.

8. The allocation of the TAC for the directed fishery for herring shall be 29% to Norway and 71% to the EU. The by-catch quota for herring shall be allocated to the EU.

9. A review of this arrangement shall take place no later than 31 December 2017


ICES considers that the proposed 2014 Long-Term Management Strategy (LTMS) for herring in the North Sea is precautionary. This LTMS includes the introduction of an interannual quota flexibility of ±10% and a 10% constraint on the deviation from the fishing mortality target, provided that SSB > Blim. ICES advises that any choice of Btrigger at or above 1.0 million tonnes in the proposed 2014 LTMS for herring in the North Sea is considered to be precautionary.

TAC setting procedure for herring in IIIa

2015 TAC setting procedure for herring in IIIa:

• 41% of the WBSS-MSY plus• 5.7% of the TAC for NSAS

• 50% of the TAC can be fished in the North Sea


ICES considers that the proposed Division IIIa TAC-setting procedure is precautionary provided it includes a requirement to transfer at least 10% of the TAC from Division IIIa to the North Sea. With transfers of less than 10%, ICES considers that the procedure is not precautionary.

ICES evaluated the TAC-setting procedure with F = 0.28. However, FMSY for WBSS was re-set to 0.32 and now this is used to provide the advice. The TAC-setting procedure has not been evaluated at F = 0.32. However, it appears highly likely that if the present transfer rate (50%) is maintained the rule will be precautionary for WBSS herring.

Fishing mortality TACs and catch by fleet

NSAS

F ages (wr)2-

6

NSAS

F ages (wr)0-

1

WBSS

F ages (wr)3-

6

Fleet A Fleet B Fleet C Fleet D Fleet F Total catch

Area All All All IV & VIId IV & VIId IIIa IIIa 22–24 NSAS WBSS

Area TAC (LTMP,

FMSY = 0.32)0.234 0.05 0.35 518 242 12 498 51 084 6 659 26 274 555 086 52 547

Stock

NSAS

F ages (wr)2-

6

NSAS

F ages (wr)0-

1

WBSS

F ages (wr)3-

6

NSAS WBSS NSAS NSAS WBSS NSAS WBSS WBSS NSAS WBSS

Predicted catch

0% transfer 0.234 0.05 0.35 518 242 2 953 12 498 19 412 31 672 4 934 1 725 26 274 555 086 62 624

Predicted catch

50% transfer0.244 0.05 0.27 543 784 2 953 12 498 9 706 15 836 4 934 1 725 26 274 570 922 46 788

Area TAC

(LTMP, F = 0.28)0.234 0.05 0.32 518 662 12 556 48 724 6 659 23 367 554 667 46 733

Stock

NSAS

F ages (wr)2-

6

NSAS

F ages (wr)0-

1

WBSS

F ages (wr)3-

6

NSAS WBSS NSAS NSAS WBSS NSAS WBSS WBSS NSAS WBSS

Predicted catch

0% transfer0.234 0.05 0.32 518 662 2 953 12 556 18 515 30 209 4 934 1 725 23 367 554 667 58 254

Predicted catch

50% transfer0.244 0.05 0.24 543 024 2 953 12 556 9 258 15 105 4 934 1 725 23 367 569 772 43 150

The advised catch and resulting catch options by fleet following the agreed EU Norway management rule. With North Sea LTMP and WBSS F = 0.28 and F = FMSY = 0.32, and with 0% and 50% TAC transfer flexibility. All weights are in thousand tonnes. Additional scenarios are available upon request.

Herring catches by area

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West of Scotland, Irish Sea and Celtic Sea herring

Herring in Divisions VIa and VIIb,c (West of Scotland, West of Ireland)

Herring west of Scotland and Ireland

A combined assessment of VIaN and of VIaS/VIIbc herring was benchmarked in 2015 (ICES,

2015a). The stocks are combined because it is not possible to segregate them in commercial

catches or surveys. ICES still considers that separate stocks exist.

The assessment estimates an average F for the combined stocks. The estimated F is not

indicative of F on either stock, and the smaller component stock may suffer a much higher F

than the larger stock. The estimations of SSB and R reflect the combined stocks.

Historic assessment results are not presented because this is the first time that advice is

presented for the combined stocks in recent past.


ICES stock advice

ICES advises that when the MSY approach is applied, there should be zero catch in 2016. ICES advises that a rebuilding plan be developed for this stock. ICES advises, under precautionary considerations, that activities that have a negative impact on the spawning habitat of

herring should not occur, unless the effects of these activities have been assessed and shown not to be detrimental.


Table 5.3.19.1 Herring in Divisions VIa and VIIb,c. State of the stock and fishery relative to reference points.


2012 2013 2014 2013 2014 2015


FMSY Appropriate MSY Btrigger Below trigger


Fpa, Flim

Below possible reference points

Bpa, Blim

Reduced reproductive capacity

Management Plan

FMGT - - - Not applicable SSBMGT - - - Not applicable


Advice basis MSY approach

Management planThere is no agreed management plan for the combined stocks. There was a management

plan for herring in VIa North; this plan is not appropriate for the combined stocks.

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F ages (wr) 3-6 (2015) 0.11 ICES (2015a; 2015b) Catch constraint, TAC VIaN

Total catch (2015) 22690 t ICES (2015a; 2015b) TAC, VIaN = 22,690 t; TAC VIaS = 0 t

Wanted catch (2015)* 22690 t ICES (2015a; 2015b) TAC, VIaN = 22,690 t; TAC VIaS = 0 t

Unwanted catch (2015)* - ICES (2015a; 2015b) Considered to be negligible

R age (wr) 1 (2015-2016) 623435 ICES (2015a; 2015b) Geometric mean 2012-2014

SSB (2015) 194194 t ICES (2015a; 2015b) SSB in advice year for an autumn spawning stock

Rationale Catch (2016) BasisF

(2016)

SSB (2016)

*

% SSB

change **

% TAC

change

***

MSY approach 0 Zero catch 0 166670 -14% -100%

12762 FMSY × SSB2015 / MSY Btrigger 0.08 159452 -18% -44%

Other options

17797 F2015 0.11 156570 -19% -22%

22690 TAC 2015 0.14 153750 -21% 0%

26049 FMSY 0.16 151803 -22% 15%

17018 TAC2015 - 25% 0.10 157017 -19% -25%

8509 F = 0.05 0.05 161870 -17% -62%

The basis for the catch options

The catch options


ICES stock data category 1 (ICES, 2015c)

Assessment typeAge-based analytical assessment (SAM; ICES, 2015b) that uses catches in the model and in

the forecast.

Input data

Commercial catches, (weights, ages and length frequencies from catch sampling); Malin

Shelf Herring Acoustic Survey data (MSHAS), west of Scotland herring acoustic survey

(MSHAS_N), Scottish west coast IBTS surveys (quarters 1 and 4).

Discards and by-catch Not included, considered negligible.

Indicators None

Other information

Benchmarked in WKWEST (ICES, 2015a), updated with corrected natural mortalities by ICES

(2015a). This is an autumn/winter spawning stock. Age is given in winter rings, so for

example: a 2-year-old fish is termed “1-winter ring”.

Working group Herring Assessment Working Group for the Area South of 62ºN (HAWG)

Herring (Clupea harengus) in VIIa South of 52° 30’ N and VIIg,h,j,k(Irish Sea, Celtic Sea and Southwest of Ireland)

Celtic Sea & South of Ireland

ICES stock advice ICES advises that when the MSY approach is applied, catches in 2016 should be no more than 23164 tonnes. ICES advises, under precautionary considerations, that activities that have a negative impact on the spawning habitat of

herring should not occur, unless the effects of these activities have been assessed and shown not to be detrimental.



2012 2013 2014 2013 2014 2015


FMSY Appropriate MSY



Fpa, Flim

Below possible

reference points Bpa, Blim

Full reproductive

capacity




Management plan

ICES evaluated the 2011 long-term management plan for Celtic Sea herring agreed by

the Pelagic AC in 2011 as precautionary (ICES, 2012; 2015a; Pelagic AC, 2011). ICES was

requested to provide advice based on the MSY approach and to include the

management plan as a catch option.

http://www.ices.dk/sites/pub/Publication Reports/Advice/2015/2015/General_context_of_ICES_advice_2015.pdf


http://www.pelagic-ac.org/media/pdf/LTMP Celtic Sea and South of Ireland herring.pdf

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RationaleCatch

(2016)Basis

F

(2016)

SSB

(2016)

% SSB

change

% TAC

change

MSY approach 23164 FMSY 0.26 92102 -16% +48%

Zero catch 0 Zero catch 0 111364 -5% -100%

Other options

20764 Fmgt in management plan agreed by Pelagic AC 0.23 99539 -15% +33%

20348Long-term management plan agreed by Pelagic

AC (30% TAC increase^)0.22 99787 -15% +30%

15652 TAC 2015 0.17 102250 -12% 0%

16633 F2015 0.18 101976 -13% +6%


F ages (wr) 2-5 (2015) 0.18 ICES (2015a) Catch constraint (TAC plus carryover) = 17 752 t

Total catch (2015) 18.4 kt ICES (2015a)

Wanted catch (2015)* 17.8 kt ICES (2015a) TAC 2015 plus carryover

Unwanted catch (2015)* 0.6 kt ICES (2015a) 2014 raised estimate (3.2%)

R age (wr) 1 (2015/2016) 541 million ICES (2015a)Stock-recruit relationship based on SSB2013 from the

assessment output (Figure 5.3.18.2)

SSB (2015) 117 kt ICES (2015a)


ICES stock data category 1 (ICES, 2015d)

Assessment typeAge-based analytical assessment (ASAP; ICES, 2015a) that uses catches in the model and in

the forecast.

Input data

Commercial catches (weights, ages and length frequencies from catch sampling); Acoustic

survey index (CSHAS); annual weights in the stock; fixed maturity ogive; natural mortality

assumed constant.

Discards and bycatch Included in the assessment (covering 4% of the Irish landings raised to total catch)

Indicators None

Other information

Benchmarked in WKWEST (ICES, 2015b), updated with corrected natural mortalities by ICES

(2015a). Assessed on a seasonal basis, 1 April–31 March, to allow for the inclusion of the

spawning cycle in the assessment period. This is an autumn/winter spawning stock. Age is

given in winter rings, so for example: a 2-year-old fish is termed “1-winter ring”.

Working group Herring Assessment Working Group for the Area South of 62ºN (HAWG)

The stock was benchmarked in 2015 and the assessment model was changed. The benchmark resulted in a change in the perception of the stock (ICES, 2015a; 2015b). The new assessment presents less retrospective bias compared to previous assessments. The assessment provides a quite precise estimate of stock biomass. Estimates of recruitment are more uncertain and this may be related to the lack of a fisheries independent recruitment estimator. The 2014 survey estimates were not used in the assessment, on the recommendation of ICES WGIPS (ICES, 2015c), because the survey did not cover the entire stock due to timing of the migration patterns in 2014, and the precision of the abundance estimate was very poor. This is expected to lead to a small decrease in the accuracy of the estimate in 2015.

Division VIIa North of 52º 30’ (Irish Sea)

Irish Sea

ICES stock advice ICES advises that when the MSY approach is applied, catches in 2016 should be no more than 4575 tonnes. ICES advises, under precautionary considerations, that activities that have a negative impact on the spawning habitat of herring should not occur, unless the effects of these activities have been assessed and shown not to be detrimental.

Irish Sea


2012 2013 2014 2013 2014 2015


FMSY Appropriate MSY



Fpa, Flim

Below possible

reference points Bpa, Blim

Full reproductive

capacity




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9

Irish Sea


Management planThere is no management plan for herring in this area. A management plan has been under

review by the Pelagic Advisory Committee for Division VIIa (North).

Irish Sea


Fages (wr) 4-6 (2015) 0.25 ICES (2015a) TAC constraint

SSB (2015)* 17634 ICES (2015a) SSB in advice year, for autumn spawning stock

Rage(wr) 1 (2015/2016) 160 million ICES (2015a) GM 1998-2012

Catch (2015) 4854 tonnes ICES (2015a) Human consumption landings; discards are negligible.

RationaleCatch

(2016)Basis

F

(2016)

SSB

(2016)*

%SSB

change**

%TAC

change***

MSY approach 4575 FMSY 0.26 16083 -9 -6

Zero catch 0 F = 0 0 19447 +10 -100

Other options

4126 TAC −15% (F2015 × 0.940) 0.2321 16413 -7 -15

4854 Stable TAC (F2015 × 1.13) 0.2776 15878 -10 0

5582 TAC +15% (F2015 × 1.32) 0.3247 15343 -13 +15

The basis for the catch options

The catch options.

Irish Sea

ICES stock data

category1 (ICES, 2015b)

Assessment typeAge-based analytical assessment (FLSAM; ICES, 2015a) that uses

catches in the model and in the forecast.

Input data

Two survey indices (Northern Ireland Acoustic Surveys: AC(VIIaN))

and larvae survey NINEL); commercial catch-at-age data and annual

maturity ogives, annual stock weights from AC(VIIaN).

Discards and bycatch Discards are considered to be negligible.

Indicators None

Other information Benchmarked in WKPELA (ICES, 2012)

Working groupHerring Assessment Working Group for the Area South of 62ºN

(HAWG)

Irish Sea

The assessment is performed on a mixed stock (including juveniles from the Celtic Sea), which affects the estimates of the younger ages.

No catch information was included for in the assessment for 2014 due to inaccurate age information. This reduced the quality of the assessment, but a sensitivity analysis of the assessment model was conducted and it was found that the resulting estimates of population parameters are robust to this change.

All advice available online at:

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Advice online

Thank you!

Comments/Questions ?


http://www.ices.dk/sites/pub/Publication Reports/Expert Group Report/acom/2012/WKPELA 2012/wkpela_2012.pdf


http://www.ices.dk/

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