PowerPoint Presentation
description
Transcript of PowerPoint Presentation
![Page 1: PowerPoint Presentation](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051609/547c4cc4b4af9f945b8b461d/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Neural Computation Underlying Individual and Social Decision-Making
Ming HsuHaas School of Business
University of California, Berkeley
![Page 2: PowerPoint Presentation](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051609/547c4cc4b4af9f945b8b461d/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Neesweek, 09.August 2004Forbes, 01.September 2002
![Page 3: PowerPoint Presentation](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051609/547c4cc4b4af9f945b8b461d/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
The Big Picture
Human Behavior
Economics: formal, axiomatic, global
Psychology: intuitive, empirical, local
Neuroscience:biological, computational evolutionary
![Page 4: PowerPoint Presentation](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051609/547c4cc4b4af9f945b8b461d/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
The Big Picture
Human Behavior
Economics: formal, axiomatic, global.
Psychology: intuitive, empirical, local.
Neuroscience:biological, circuitry, evolutionary.
Neuroeconomics
“A mechanistic, behavioral, and
mathematical explanation of choice that transcends [each field separately].”
- Glimcher and Rustichini. Science (2004)
![Page 5: PowerPoint Presentation](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051609/547c4cc4b4af9f945b8b461d/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
The Big Picture
Human Behavior
Economics: formal, axiomatic, global.
Psychology: intuitive, empirical, local.
Neuroscience:biological, circuitry, evolutionary.
Neuroeconomics
Studies how the brain encodes and computes
values that guide behavior.
Allows us to improve models, design markets/AI, create new diagnostic tools
![Page 6: PowerPoint Presentation](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051609/547c4cc4b4af9f945b8b461d/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Tools That We Used
Special Populations Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI)
![Page 7: PowerPoint Presentation](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051609/547c4cc4b4af9f945b8b461d/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
7
fMRI Scanner
![Page 8: PowerPoint Presentation](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051609/547c4cc4b4af9f945b8b461d/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
fMRI: Changes in Magnetization
Basal State
Activated State
![Page 9: PowerPoint Presentation](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051609/547c4cc4b4af9f945b8b461d/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Agenda
• Individual Decision-Making– Ambiguity aversion– fMRI and brain lesion
• Sociopaths– Social preferences– Special population
• Take-aways
![Page 10: PowerPoint Presentation](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051609/547c4cc4b4af9f945b8b461d/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Simple Decisions: Blackjack
![Page 11: PowerPoint Presentation](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051609/547c4cc4b4af9f945b8b461d/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Simple Decisions: Blackjack
![Page 12: PowerPoint Presentation](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051609/547c4cc4b4af9f945b8b461d/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Stock?Bond?
Domestic?Foreign?
Stock?Bond?
Domestic?Foreign?
DiversifyThink long-term
More Complicated: Investing
![Page 13: PowerPoint Presentation](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051609/547c4cc4b4af9f945b8b461d/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Whether?Who?When?Where?
37% Rule (Mosteller, 1987)
“Dozen” Rule (Todd, 1997)
Complicated: Love/Marriage
![Page 14: PowerPoint Presentation](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051609/547c4cc4b4af9f945b8b461d/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Little knowledge of probabilities
Simple Complex
Most of life’s decisions
Precise knowledge of probabilities
![Page 15: PowerPoint Presentation](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051609/547c4cc4b4af9f945b8b461d/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Uncertainty about uncertainty?
![Page 16: PowerPoint Presentation](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051609/547c4cc4b4af9f945b8b461d/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Ellsberg Paradox
1961
![Page 17: PowerPoint Presentation](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051609/547c4cc4b4af9f945b8b461d/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Urn I: Risk
Most people indifferent between betting on red versus blue
5 Red5 Blue
![Page 18: PowerPoint Presentation](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051609/547c4cc4b4af9f945b8b461d/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
?
Urn II: Ambiguity
Most people indifferent between betting on red versus blue
? ? ? ??? ???
10 - x Redx Blue
![Page 19: PowerPoint Presentation](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051609/547c4cc4b4af9f945b8b461d/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Choose Between Urns
Many people prefer betting on Urn I over Urn II.
? ? ? ? ??? ???
Urn II(Ambiguous)
Urn I(Risk)
![Page 20: PowerPoint Presentation](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051609/547c4cc4b4af9f945b8b461d/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Where Is The Paradox?
P(RedII)=P(BlueII)
P(RedII) < 0.5
P(BlueII) < 0.5? ? ? ? ??? ???
P(RedI) = P(BlueI)
P(RedI) = 0.5
P(BlueI) = 0.5
P(RedI) + P(BlueI) = 1
P(RedII) + P(BlueII) = 1
Urn II(Ambiguous)
Urn I(Risk)
![Page 21: PowerPoint Presentation](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051609/547c4cc4b4af9f945b8b461d/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Simple Complex
Verizonor
Deutsche Telekom
Jenniferor
Angelina
Not ambiguityaverse
![Page 22: PowerPoint Presentation](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051609/547c4cc4b4af9f945b8b461d/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Portfolio Weights: U.S., Japan, and U.K. Investors
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
U.S. Japan U.K.
Proportion of portfolio
CanadaGermanyFranceU.K.JapanU.S.
Verizon or Deutsche Telecom?
French & Poterba, American Economic Review (1991).
![Page 23: PowerPoint Presentation](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051609/547c4cc4b4af9f945b8b461d/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
fMRI Experiment
Hsu, Bhatt, Adolphs, Tranel, and Camerer. Science. (2005)
![Page 24: PowerPoint Presentation](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051609/547c4cc4b4af9f945b8b461d/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
fMRI Experiment
Hsu, Bhatt, Adolphs, Tranel, and Camerer. Science. (2005)
![Page 25: PowerPoint Presentation](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051609/547c4cc4b4af9f945b8b461d/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Expected Reward Region
€
y i, jt,v = α + β amb A(i, j, t) + β riskR(i, j, t)
+δE(i, j, t) + πW (i, j, t,v) + ε i, jt,v
y - Brain response A(.) - Ambiguity trialsR(.) - Risk trialsE(.) - Expected value of choicesW(.) - Nuisance parameters
![Page 26: PowerPoint Presentation](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051609/547c4cc4b4af9f945b8b461d/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Lower Activity under Ambiguity%
Sig
na
l Ch
an
ge
![Page 27: PowerPoint Presentation](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051609/547c4cc4b4af9f945b8b461d/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Region Reacting to Uncertainty
€
β amb > β risk
N.B. This region does not correlate with expected reward.
Orbitofrontal Cortex
€
y i, jt,v = α + β amb A(i, j, t) + β riskR(i, j, t)
+δE(i, j, t) + πW (i, j, t,v) + ε i, jt,v
y - Brain response A(.) - Ambiguity trialsR(.) - Risk trialsE(.) - Expected value of choicesW(.) - Nuisance parameters
![Page 28: PowerPoint Presentation](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051609/547c4cc4b4af9f945b8b461d/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Brain Imaging Data
Behavioral Choice Data Stochastic Choice Model
Link Between Brain and Behavior
![Page 29: PowerPoint Presentation](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051609/547c4cc4b4af9f945b8b461d/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Early
Late?
A Signal for Uncertainty?
![Page 30: PowerPoint Presentation](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051609/547c4cc4b4af9f945b8b461d/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Lesion Subjects
Orbitofrontal Control
![Page 31: PowerPoint Presentation](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051609/547c4cc4b4af9f945b8b461d/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Lesion Experiment
100 Cards
50 Red50 Black
100 Cards
x Red100-x Black
Choose between gamble worth 100 points OR
Sure payoffs of 15, 25, 30, 40 and 60 points.
![Page 32: PowerPoint Presentation](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051609/547c4cc4b4af9f945b8b461d/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Estimated Risk and Ambiguity Attitudes
Orbitofrontal Lesion
Control Lesion
Orbitofrontal lesion patients more rational!
![Page 33: PowerPoint Presentation](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051609/547c4cc4b4af9f945b8b461d/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Linking Neural, Behavioral, and Lesion Data
Brain Imaging Data
Behavioral Choice Data Stochastic Choice Model
Imputed value
OFC lesion estimate = 0.82
![Page 34: PowerPoint Presentation](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051609/547c4cc4b4af9f945b8b461d/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Agenda
• Individual Decision-Making– Ambiguity aversion– fMRI and brain lesion
• Sociopaths– Social preferences– Special population
How neurosciencecan help economics
How economics can help neuroscience
![Page 35: PowerPoint Presentation](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051609/547c4cc4b4af9f945b8b461d/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Norman BatesPsycho, 1960
![Page 36: PowerPoint Presentation](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051609/547c4cc4b4af9f945b8b461d/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Criminality
• Estimated psychopathy rates among prisoners (various times after 1990)– North American: 20.5% (2003 PCL-R
manual)– Canada: 15 – 25% (federal prison)– Iran: 23%– UK: 26%
• Younger beginnings (14 y.o. vs. 28 y.o. )• “Instrumental” homicides
![Page 37: PowerPoint Presentation](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051609/547c4cc4b4af9f945b8b461d/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Measuring Psychopathy
• Psychopathy Checklist-Revised, Screening version (PCL-R SV)– 24 point scale: 12 traits scored 0, 1, 2
• Two factors– Interpersonal-affective factor (6 traits)– Impulsivity-social deviance (6 traits)
• Impulsivity-social deviance (Factor 2) is less important for us– Except for safety concerns, of course!
![Page 38: PowerPoint Presentation](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051609/547c4cc4b4af9f945b8b461d/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Interpersonal-affective factor
• Callous and unemotional• Superficial charm• Grandiosity• Lack of empathy and shallow affect• Deception and manipulativeness• Lack of remorse• Not accepting responsibility
![Page 39: PowerPoint Presentation](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051609/547c4cc4b4af9f945b8b461d/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Characterizing Psychopathy using Economic Games
• What we’re doing– Characterize behavior in these individuals– Provide a quantitative measure of (social)
behavior
• Where we want to go– Use this measure to search for neural and genetic
correlates of psychopathy– And other psychiatric and neurological diseases
![Page 40: PowerPoint Presentation](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051609/547c4cc4b4af9f945b8b461d/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
Responder Game
Your payoff
Other’s payoff
Your payoff
Other’s payoff
![Page 41: PowerPoint Presentation](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051609/547c4cc4b4af9f945b8b461d/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
B: Costless punishment
Generous
Selfish
![Page 42: PowerPoint Presentation](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051609/547c4cc4b4af9f945b8b461d/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
B: Costly Reward
Generous
Selfish
![Page 43: PowerPoint Presentation](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051609/547c4cc4b4af9f945b8b461d/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
Responder Game: Intentions Matter
![Page 44: PowerPoint Presentation](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051609/547c4cc4b4af9f945b8b461d/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
Responder Game: Intentions Matter
![Page 45: PowerPoint Presentation](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051609/547c4cc4b4af9f945b8b461d/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
Power matters?SPs (only): Refuse to let Player B choose
![Page 46: PowerPoint Presentation](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051609/547c4cc4b4af9f945b8b461d/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
Responder Game: Intentions Matter
Power matters
I would not give control over to another person, even for more money.
![Page 47: PowerPoint Presentation](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051609/547c4cc4b4af9f945b8b461d/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
Responder Game: Intentions Matter
Power matters?
I would not give control over to another person, even for more money.
Seems like A1 is the more “dominant.”
![Page 48: PowerPoint Presentation](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051609/547c4cc4b4af9f945b8b461d/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
Take-aways
• Neuroeconomics is possible– Studying neural mechanisms of economic decision-making– Nascent field, only about 10 years old– Much progress during that time
• Many open questions, opportunities– Moral decision-making– Strategic thinking– Financial bubbles– http://neuroecon.berkeley.edu
![Page 49: PowerPoint Presentation](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051609/547c4cc4b4af9f945b8b461d/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
Eric Set
Edelyn Verona
Colin Camerer
Ralph Adolphs
Daniel Tranel
Steve Quartz
Peter Bossaerts
Meghana Bhatt
Cédric Anen
Shreesh Mysore
Acknowledgements