PowerPoint Presentation 3 PPT.pdf · Polling ›On December 3, 2015 the Public Policy Institute of...
Transcript of PowerPoint Presentation 3 PPT.pdf · Polling ›On December 3, 2015 the Public Policy Institute of...
Kindergarten Through Community College Public Education Facilities Bond Act of 2016
Fresno COE Successful Projects Workshop Series
David WalrathFebruary 10, 2016
Where We Are Now
› Qualified!
› We are committed to passing the State School Bond which includes: – New Construction ($3 billion)
– Modernization ($3 billion)
– Career Technical Education Program ($500 million),
– Charter School Facilities Program ($500 million)
– Community Colleges ($2 billion)
Polling
› On December 3, 2015 the Public Policy
Institute of California (PPIC) released its
most recent survey of California political
issues and elected officials.
› The PPIC survey was very positive with a
majority of California likely voters in support
of the State School Bond.
Campaign
› C.A.S.H. will need to raise $2.5 million, with its partner matching funds
› The campaign is expected to total approximately $10 million
› We are growing the coalition for more funding partners, expanding our outreach and furthering our grass roots efforts
› To contribute, please visit cashissuesstateschoolbond.com
› We look forward to your continued support!
School Board Resolutions
› In addition to the State School Bond, there will be multiple initiatives on the November 8, 2016 Statewide General Election Ballot. We will need to rise above the fray! We need every school district and county office to pass a resolution in support of the 2016 State School Bond.
› A sample resolution can be found on the C.A.S.H. website, cashnet.org and a sample copy is also available in your packet
› For additional information and to view the school board resolutions received to date, visit cashissuesstateschoolbond.com
Your Endorsement is Needed!
› We need the support of Associate members and
Individuals
› Please complete a State School Bond
Endorsement/Support Form today!
Endorsements to Date
› ORGANIZATIONS
• California Business Roundtable
• California Chamber of Commerce
• Small School Districts’ Association
• State Building and Construction Trades Council of
California
Endorsements to Date› S TAT E W I D E L E A D E R S | E L E C T E D O F F I C I A L S
• Tom Torlakson, California State Superintendent of Public
Instruction
• Delaine Eastin, Former California State Superintendent of
Public Instruction
• Jack O’Connell, Former California State Superintendent of
Public Instruction
• The Honorable John Burton
• Joan Buchanan, Former State Assembly Education Chair
• Bob Huff, Former California Senate Republican Leader
• Kristen Olsen, Former California Assembly Republican Leader
• Chad Mayes, California Assembly Republican Leader
Endorsements to Date› S TAT E W I D E L E A D E R S | E L E C T E D O F F I C I A L S
• Luis Alejo, Chair, California Latino Legislative Caucus
• Ian Calderon, California State Assembly
• Anthony Cannella, California State Senate
• Jim Cooper, California State Assembly
• Bill Dodd, California State Assembly
• Mike Gatto, California State Assembly
• Lorena Gonzalez, California State Assembly
Fundraising Events
› February 10, 2016 | 6 :00 p.m.
– Erickson-Hall Construction
– 502 Corporate Drive, Escondido
› February 17, 2016 | 5:00 p.m.
– Murdoch, Walrath & Holmes
– 921 11th Street, Sacramento
› March 14, 2016 | 5:00 p.m.
– Location TBD, Fresno
› April 12, 2016 | 5:00 p.m.
– Andrei’s in Irvine
– 2607 Main Street, Irvine
Thank You!
› We will win in November 2016!
› We need your support for our campaign to
make this promise a reality
Thank You Contributors!Triple Diamond
($50,000 and Greater)
Architects
DLR Group
HMC Architects
PJHM Architects
Ruhnau Ruhnau Clarke
WLC Architects
Construction Managers
Balfour Beatty Construction
Harris Construction
Neff Construction
Consultants and Planners
California Financial Services
Murdoch, Walrath & Holmes
School Facility Consultants
Financial Institutions
Stifel, Nicolaus & Company
Double Diamond
($40,000 - $49,999)
Construction Managers
Tilden Coil Constructors, Inc.
Furniture and Equipment Suppliers
Virco Manufacturing Corporation
Contact Information
David Walrath
916-448-8577
Coalition for Adequate School Housing
1303 J Street, Suite 520
Sacramento, CA 95814
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Presentation Overview
I. Polling in 2016
II. California’s 2016 Election
III. Mood of the California Electorate
IV. School Finance Measure Research: The Basics
V. Local Case Study: Fresno USD Measure Q
24
Challenges on the Rise, but it is:
Still the Preeminent Strategic Campaign Tool
Still the Best Window Into Voter Attitudes and Behavior
Still the Best and Most Efficient Means to Affect Key Resource Decisions
25
The Basic Precept Still Holds: Give voters in
a particular universe an equal chance of
being interviewed.
The actual turnout must be correctly estimated based on both past voter history and current vote intention. What is past is not necessarily prologue. 2014 turnout was lower in California than anyone projected; 2008 turnout was higher nationally than anyone projected; 2016 turnout could yet prove very surprising;
Samples must include the proper mix of cell phones and landlines, with every trend increasing the importance of cell phones with each passing month;
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Continued…
Different modes of interviewing—on-line, smartphone/tablet, Qualboards—must supplement the former core of telephone surveys and focus groups;
Polling samples are pulled from California’s highly-detailed voter file database, which lists all registered voters and includes information such as party preference, home address, and which past elections they have participated in.
27
Specific Questions for California:
Will the 2014 decline in turnout—evident everywhere, but most evident among Millennials and Latinos—be completely reversed, particularly among Millennials and Latinos, the two ascendant parts of the population?
Will the Top Two Primary finally produce a major statewide showdown (such as the U.S. Senate race) between two Democrats and will that alter turnout and strategies?
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The Millennials:
Now America’s largest generation: Ages 18-34
Traditionally low-turnout voters, but came out for Obama
What will their turnout look like?
What party will they break for?
They will be a crucial wild card
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Millennials Are:
Disproportionally Latino, Asian-American and African-American
Nearly half (44.2%) of millennials are racial or ethnic minorities
BUT – white millennials, who supported Obama in 2008, voted for Romney in 2012 and are now trending more Republican - they remain a competitive demographic
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Demographics of the anticipated 2016
California Electorate - Differences from 2014
Nov. 2014 Nov. 2016
Democrats: 44% 45%
Republicans: 34% 31%
Independents: 22% 24%
Ages 18-49: 30% 44%
Ages 50+: 70% 56%
Latinos: 15% 20%
African-Americans: 3% 4%
Asians/Pacific Islanders: 5% 6%
Whites: 77% 70%
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November 2016 Will Almost
Certainly See Numerous Well-Funded
Statewide Ballot Measures:
(Education measures in blue)
Prop. 30 Extension(s)
Marijuana Legalization
Tobacco Tax
Minimum Wage
Plastic Bag Referendum
Gun Control
Cortopassi Revenue Bonds Initiative
Drug Prices
Statewide School Bond Measure
Child Poverty Initiative
Political Reform
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Districts considering a general obligation bond should prepare for the 2016 election cycle. The presence of
one or more statewide education measures on the ballot will benefit local efforts.
35
Views on the direction of the state
have vastly improved since 2010.
Would you say that things in the State of California are generally headed in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?
36
Impact of Current Events & the International Situation on the
California Electorate
Recent events in national politics and international affairs may be creating a greater willingness, even among voters who are usually fiscally conservative, to invest in their local government infrastructure and services.
Recent research has suggested that the present sense of pessimism many voters feel about the ability of the state and federal governments to adequately address issues they perceive to be problems has increased the pressure for proactive local government to fill the void created by inaction at the state and federal level.
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Voters’ State of Mind Toward Local School & Community College Bond Measures
Despite a healthier state budget and the passage of Prop. 30in 2012, voters continue to think that schools and communitycolleges have major funding needs – both generally(statewide) and locally (specific to their own districts).
Voters recognize that basic repairs must be made toclassrooms and that many school and community collegebuildings are outdated, deteriorating, and do not meetcurrent health and safety standards.
Voters also prioritize access to quality careereducation/vocational training programs, science labs andclassroom technology to help prepare students for collegeand the workforce and (in the case of CCs) to help returningveterans transition to civilian life.
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Voters’ State of Mind toward Local School & Community College Bond Measures –
Continued
Local school and community college bonds help provide localeconomic opportunities to residents, many of whom may nothave school-age children, by strengthening local propertyvalues and promoting investments that benefit local smallbusinesses.
Local school and community college bond measures acrossthe state are polling unprecedentedly well in 2016, wellabove the necessary 55% level of support.
Statewide education measures (e.g. statewide school bond)help local school and community college bonds bystrengthening the message of investing in colleges andeducation.
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Voters’ State of Mind Toward Local School & Community College Bond Measures –
Continued
Districts considering a G.O. bond measure should take steps to prepare for placing a measure on the ballot as soon as possible as the 2016 election cycle provides the best opportunity for passage over the next several years.
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Compared to the past several years, the number of voters who think schools
have a “great” need for funding has increased.
Great/Some Need
75%
75%
79%
78%
71%
71%
78%
76%
72%
72%
California’s K-12 grade
public schools
California’s community
colleges
Your local public schools
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Total
Agr.
Total
Disagr.
73% 19%
70% 25%
68% 25%
68% 29%
62% 36%
61% 36%
The higher perception of need is reflected in a
significant increase in the number who “strongly”
agree that many schools need repairs and upgrades.
Many schools and community
colleges throughout California are
old, outdated and need upgrades
to meet current health and safety
standards, including retrofitting for
earthquake safety and the
removal of lead paint, asbestos
and other hazardous materials
Repairing and upgrading
neighborhood schools and
community colleges is a top
priority that must be funded
despite the state’s fiscal problems
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Total
Yes
63%
55%
Total
No
33%
Support for the statewide school bond held steady above 60 percent throughout 2015 – more
research is planned for this year.
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CONSULTANT WORKING DRAFT. NOT FOR PUBLICATION. CA GOVT CODE 6254.
Total
Agree
67%
57%
54%
Q9 a/f/i. Here is a list of statements about your local schools. Please tell me if you agree or disagree. ^Not Part of Split Sample
Twin Rivers USD voters view neighborhood schools as in need of repairs, updated technology, and quality teachers.
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CONSULTANT WORKING DRAFT. NOT FOR PUBLICATION. CA GOVT CODE 6254.
Q2.
Great/
Some
Need
72%
Generally speaking, would you say that Long Beach public schools have a great
need for more money, some need, a little need, or no real need for more money?
A Little/
No Real
Need
16%
More than seven in ten voters think LBUSD has a significant need for additional funding.
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CONSULTANT WORKING DRAFT. NOT FOR PUBLICATION. CA GOVT CODE 6254.
Great/
Some Need
76%
74%
Q5.
Twin Rivers USD voters also see a great need for more funding for local schools.
Generally speaking, would you say that ______ has a great need for additional
funding, some need, a little need or no real need for additional funding?
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CONSULTANT WORKING DRAFT
Little/
No Real
Need
13%
Great/
Some
Need
69%
Q3.
Generally speaking, would you say that the Sanger Unified School District has a great need
for additional funding, some need, a little need or no real need for additional funding?
Almost three-quarters (74%) of Sanger USD voters agree there is a need for additional funding.
Great need
Some need
Little need
No real need
DK/NA
June 2012 October 2015
Little/
No Real
Need
12%
Great/
Some
Need
74%
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Total
Yes
76%
Total
No
20%
Q3. If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of it or no to oppose this school bond measure?
Long Beach USD is currently polling above 75% for a $1.5 billion bond measure.
71%
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Total
Yes
73%
Total
No
19%
Q6.
Twin Rivers USD is also above 70% for a very large bond measure.
If the vote on this measure were held today, would
you vote yes in favor, or no to oppose it?
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CONSULTANT WORKING DRAFT
Total
No
17%
Total
Yes
71%
A strong majority of voters would vote in favor of the Sanger USD measure on the initial reading.
Q4.
If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of it
or no to oppose this bond measure?
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Key Elements of School Finance Measure
Opinion Research
Who do you interview? Likely voters: If you are trying to model potential election results – as is the
case with most polls on school finance measures – focus on voters who,
based on past elections, are likely to vote.
How many voters should you interview? Generally speaking, most school finance polls use samples of between 400
(+/- 4.9% error margin) and 1,000 (+/- 3.0% error margin). The larger and more
diverse the electorate, the larger sample size you will need.
How long should the survey take for the average respondent? A 15-20 minute baseline/benchmark survey allows enough time to test the
range of issues needed to assess voter attitudes and support for a local
school finance measure.
What type of research should be conducted? Quantitative (survey) research with a random sample of several hundred
respondents, usually by telephone, provides statistically valid results to
assess opinions, preferences and attitudes. Focus groups are very useful in
understanding public opinion, but do not have statistical validity. On a
limited budget, a poll is more important.
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• Gauging the likelihood of a potential ballot measure’s success
• Assessing public perceptions of needs and priorities in their
community
• Testing alternative structures for a ballot measure, including a
bond (55%) or a two-thirds (66.7%) parcel tax measure
• Determining voters’ tax tolerance – how support changes at
different bond amounts and tax rates
• Determining which components of a ballot measure –
particularly potential uses of revenue – voters view most
favorably
• Assessing demographic patterns of support for a ballot
measure: base supporters, base opponents, and swing voters
Benefits of Feasibility Research for School
Finance Measures
53
• Gauging reactions to various pro and con arguments and
their impact on the vote
• Testing whether variations in language and emphasis lead
to different reactions
• Identifying credible messengers
• Determining which election date will give a ballot measure
the greatest chance of success
• Overall goal: to identify numerous ways of tailoring the
structure and presentation of the measure to maximize
public support
Benefits of Feasibility Research for School
Finance Measures (cont.)
56
The ballot label revisions were based on the specific projects and
uses of bond funds that received the highest level of support from voters.
(Ranked by Total Extremely/Very Important)
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(Ranked by Much More Likely)
The research also identified the accountability provisions that made voters
most likely to support the bond.
5. I am going to read a list of provisions that may be included in THE QUALITY NEIGHBORHOOD SCHOOLS, CLASSROOM REPAIR, STUDENT SAFETY AND EDUCATION IMPROVEMENT MEASURE. Please tell me whether you would be more likely or less likely to support the ballot measure if that feature were included. Split Sample
583, 4, 11, 13. If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of it or no to oppose this bond measure?
FM3’s polling showed support for the measure at 73% after voters heard educational messages about the bond.
Measure Q won with 75%.
For more information, contact:
12100 Wilshire Blvd, Suite 350
Los Angeles, CA 90025
Phone (310) 828-1183
Fax (310) 453-6562
PREPARING FOR A SUCCESSFUL BOND ELECTION
Successful Projects WorkshopFresno County of Education
February 10, 2016
Key Members of the Bond Measure Team
› Financial Advisor
› Bond Underwriter
› Bond Counsel
› Enrollment Projection Specialist
› Facility Master Plan Consultant/Architect
› Voter Opinion/Polling Consultant
› State Facility Eligibility Consultant
› Political Strategist (prior to calling for election)
Role of the Financial Advisor
› Develop bond measure scenarios
› Incorporate existing bond tax rates with future bond tax rates
› Ensure fair market tax rates when bonds are issued (assumes passage of bond measure)
› Assist is obtaining credit rating
›Work with County Treasurer in establishing annual bonded indebtedness tax rate
Role of the Bond Counsel
› Integral member of the bond measure team
› Provide input on bond election process
› Develop bond measure resolution including 75 word statement
› Ensure bond measure conforms with Proposition 39
›Works with the voter opinion consultant in drafting the 75 word statement
›Writes all legal opinions when bond are issued and ensures the tax exempt status of bonds
Role of Bond Underwriter
› Integral member of the bond measure team
› Analyses tax rate, interest and other financing issues
› Provides input on bond measure process
› Responsible for pre-marketing, marketing and sale of bonds
› Purchases the bonds and sells bonds to investors at lowest interest rates
Role of the Enrollment Projection Specialists
› Used to assist in development of grade level configuration and school site enrollment capacity
› Develops enrollment projects (7 to 10 years)
› Assists in determining new facility needs based on enrollment projections
Role of Facility Master Plan Consultant/Architect
› Used to establish the need for facility funding
› Used to establish estimated cost of projects
› Used to identify the priorities of projects to be funded
› Used to communicate with stakeholders (voters)
› Used to establish educational standards
› Used to establish facility standards
› Incorporates all aspects of a district’s facility program (enrollment projections, existing facility assessment, new school needs, financing options, etc.)
Role of Voter Opinion/Polling Consultant
› Assists in the development of survey document
› Conduct the voter opinion survey using acceptable research standards
› Analyses results of the survey
› Assists in determining the potential success of a bond measure election
› Assists in identify projects that resonate with voters
› Develops presentation to the Board on the results of the survey
State Facility Eligibility Consultant› Integral member of master plan and bond planning team
› Works with district staff to determine eligibility for State school facility funds
› Information becomes part of the master plan financing component
› Consider utilizing a firm knowledgeable in all aspects of facility funding (State bonds, local bonds, developer fees, LCFF, Proposition 39 energy funds, financial hardship, etc.)
› Post bond approval, assists districts in submitting application to State and maximizing construction funding
Political Strategist (prior to calling for election)› This type of service has not typically been used by Central Valley districts prior to the approval of bond measure resolution.
› Popular in other parts of the State, especially in districts where negative and political issues have surfaced in the past
› Serves as communication consultant by providing input for powerpoint presentations, district-wide communication, community meetings, arranging for meetings with influential individuals in the community.
› Cost of this consultant is a district expense up until the placement of a bond measure on the ballot.
› Typically hired as the political consultant by the campaign committee to work with committee in developing and implementing campaign—not an eligible district expense.
Local Bond Measure Planning & Priority ProjectsDistrict Case Study: Kerman Unified School District
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Capital Facilities Program
Facilities Future Need Analysis/Planning
(FMP)
Finance
Analysis/Planning
Design/ Construction
75
Kerman Capital Facilities Program
FMP
Bond Ballot
Phase I
Build
Phase II
Build
Phase III Build
• Eight Year Build out Cycle
• Five - Six Year FMP Update Cycle
• Six Year Financing Cycle
2014-15
2018-20 2015-18
2015-16
2019-22
First Series2017
Second Series2019
Third Series2021
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Kerman USD 2016 Bond Timeline
Bond Authorization
StudyFeasibility Study
Build Consensus & Build a Strong
Measure
Advocacy Campaign
• Poll• Election Timing• Tax Rate• Political Landscape• Competing Issues• Potential Controversy
• Write Resolution• Ballot Question• Non-Advocacy
Communication• Board Vote
• Private Fundraising• Direct Mail• Website• Endorsements• Phone Banks• Lawn Signs• GOTV
• Identification of FA and Bond Council
• Debit Capacity• Tax Rates• Series Timing• AV Growth
Jul – Nov2015
Jan – Mar2016
Mar – Jun2016
Jun – Nov2016
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Bond Authorization Study• Debt Capacity
• Tax Rates
• Series Timing
• AV Growth
• Assumptions: Current Interest Bonds Only
Interest Rates:- Series A: 4.277%- Series B: 4.549%- Series C: 4.610%
Financing Term:- Series A: 30 years- Series B: 30 years- Series C: 28 years
4% Annual AV Growth Rates
$-
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
Estimated Tax Rate (Series A) Estimated Tax Rate (Series B)
Estimated Tax Rate (Series C) Maximum Tax Rate
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Feasibility Study• Poll
• Construct polling question to community
• Election Timing
• Which election June/November
• Tax Rate
• $30/$100,000 AV (Elementary District)
• $60/$100,000 AV (Unified District)
• Political Landscape
• Competing Issues & Controversy
• Identified and action plan developed to eliminate/mitigate impact
• Red Light/Green Light79
Build ConsensusBuild A Strong Measure
• Write Resolution
• Board resolution to place GO bond on ballot with parameters established through consensus stage of: Tax rate, ballot language, and Prop 39 project list
• Ballot Question
• Non-Advocacy Communication
• District engages community and stake holders
• Board Vote
• Calls for election must be 88 days before election
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Advocacy Campaign
• Private Fundraising
• Set up fundraising activities
• Direct Mail
• Contact with voting audience
• Website
• Endorsements
• Influential members/organizations of the community
• Phone Banks
• Lawn Signs
• GOTV 81
Foundational Work
Previous bond programs
High school priority athletic projects
District-wide facilities master plan
High school site master plans
Community engagement
Programmatic alignment
SUCCESSFUL BOND STRATEGIES
Facilities Master Plan
Community advisory committee
Educational program vision
Enrollment trends
Facility standards and assessment
Commitment to high quality facilities
Priority projects
Funding needs
SUCCESSFUL BOND STRATEGIES
Developing the Bond
Financial Advisor and Bond Counsel
Scenarios and timing
Amount and tax rate impact
Community survey
Project descriptions
The 75-word ballot question
SUCCESSFUL BOND STRATEGIES
Community Engagement
Community advisory committee
School district community
Labor partners
External community
Focus on high school communities
Neighborhood/regional groups
SUCCESSFUL BOND STRATEGIES
Governing Board
Communication throughout the process
Appointment of advisory committee
Multiple opportunities for input
Required adoption of bond resolution
SUCCESSFUL BOND STRATEGIES
Implementation Impacts
Local conditions/commitments
State legislation
Change in state funding programs
SUCCESSFUL BOND STRATEGIES
Current Planning
Exploring opportunity for Nov. 2016 bond
Community survey underway
Future recommendations to Board
SUCCESSFUL BOND STRATEGIES