Powering Up The Engines

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Powering Up The Engines Investing in regional infrastructure to drive UK growth

Transcript of Powering Up The Engines

Page 1: Powering Up The Engines

Powering Up The EnginesInvesting in regional infrastructure

to drive UK growth

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The Channel Group www.thechannelgroup.org

The Channel Group is an independent think tankestablished to champion Free Trade

We collaborate with leading thinkers to promulgate a vision of international free trade, the breaking down of trade barriers and the ending of internal protectionist measures. Through rigorous independent research and insightful comment, The Channel Group informs debate and develops policy.

The Channel Group was founded in 2015 by three partners with experience in politics, law and finance. The partners came together to create a strong voice for international free trade.

The Channel Group will:

• Serve as an independent expert in international trade;

• Work with governments and regulators to remove barriers to trade;

• Champion business interests and support free trade;

• Educate the public on trade issues.

Toby IllingworthPartner

Daniel CampbellPartner

Thomas DempsterPartner

www.thechannelgroup.org

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Businesses have traditionally expanded more easily and efficiently when there has been a good level of investment in supporting infrastructure. From canals to airports, the methods by which goods and services are transported has been key to growing British trade and the economy.

Britain has a long history of being able to conduct business by using well maintained infrastructure, but in recent decades investment in infrastructure has slowed. The once pioneering rail network has not been updated since Victorian times.

This paper will explore the infrastructure investment decisions that have been made recently and the next projects that will bring the greatest benefit to businesses.

London has been the primary beneficiary of investments in traditional infrastructure projects. Large-scale projects such as Crossrail, extensions to the underground network and significant road improvements have created an unequal playing field for regional cities. The Channel Group would like to see a re-balancing of the British economy away from London. This decentralisation is not only beneficial to the regions, but also to businesses and consumers.

Large organisations have already moved many non-key services out of their London bases and this has been followed by head offices and front-line services.

Foreword

Later in 2016, the Government will decide whether Gatwick or Heathrow should be expanded. The Channel Group believes that the UK needs to move away from having a single hub airport, and that regional growth centres should be internationally connected themselves. Expansion at Gatwick is essential to ensure competition. It is the only option for expansion that does not undermine regional growth. Gatwick can meet the point-to-point demand and keep the London economy directly connected to international markets. To that end, we recommend expansion at Gatwick.

Regional infrastructure expansion is at the heart of stronger growth in the UK. The Channel Group believes that the future of infrastructure investment needs to move away from London as a business hub. Investment should be made in a series of regional growth centres, comprising of clusters of cities with excellent national and international transport links. This pattern of regional growth centres will distribute the economic benefits of trade more widely across the UK and will allow a greater proportion of UK businesses to enter the national and international markets.

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This paper identifies three main areas of focus for infrastructure spending to help boost its trade growth:

Executive SummaryContents

Chapter

Executive Summary

IntroductionInvesting in infrastructure pays off

Future GrowthGlobal trade patterns in 2050

Connected regionsSix key regions for regional growthLondon and BeyondThe UK as a mega regionRegional ConnectivityRoad & Rail

What regions needAirRailFreightMaritime

Conclusion

Key regions in focus

BirminghamLondon & the South EastEdinburghThe Northern PowerhouseNewcastleBristol & Cardiff

1

2

3

Make key UK city regions the engines of growth

Focusing investment in two or three key city regions - most notably the ‘Northern Powerhouse’ and the Greater London region - and treating them as coherent economic clusters should be a priority. Building better links between these regions matters too. This approach will drive faster overall growth and give a much better return than letting every UK city and town argue the case for funding its own particular and disjointed infrastructure wish lists.

A focus on global growth

To meet its potential the UK must connect to the global economy, which is set to grow dramatically in the coming decades. It must focus its attention on enabling more business with the areas of greatest growth, principally southeast Asia.

More and better global air links

Better and more flexible, international air links will boost the UK’s trade performance. Without frequent links to global mega-regions Britain's economy will not grow to its potential. We recommend the expansion plans begin at Gatwick immediately to avoid further delay and uncertainty.

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International trade is the lifeblood of the UK’s wealth and has been for centuries. Today its economy is vibrant and diverse thanks to it being an integral part of the global trading system.

Trade brings jobs, wealth, innovation and the taxes that fund a modern society. Infrastructure is a key enabler of deeper, more valuable trade ties. Therefore, the UK must spend wisely to increase its ability to trade with the world. This is a good news story. World trade is set to explode in the coming decades and the UK has a golden chance to benefit from this growth, but only if it creates the wherewithal to do so.

The UK is already a year into a five-year plan to invest £100 billion in infrastructure by 20201, much of it transport related. This is just a fraction of the total it will need to spend, however, if it is to realise its full trade potential. It is the view of the Channel Group that the UK must do much more and be far more ambitious. Infrastructure is clearly fundamental for UK growth yet its investment record is a poor one.

The UK needs to invest £400 billion to deliver all the infrastructure projects planned by the UK government to 2020 and much more beyond 2020. For example, London’s transport alone needs £973 billion by 2050 to keep up with its rising residential and working populations2.

Infrastructure is a huge topic, and defining it can include many different areas including health services, schools, utilities and energy. Important though these are, the focus of this study is to ask what infrastructure projects will directly boost deeper trade ties and offer UK businesses, of all sizes, the chance to grow their business with the rest of the world. The purpose of this paper is to ask and propose answers to this question: What infrastructure should the UK make sure it invests in beyond 2020 to realise the greatest and most rapid growth in trade levels in the subsequent 20 years?

Introduction

1HM Government, National Infrastructure Commission: terms of reference, (2015)

2Mayor of London, London Infrastructure Plan 2050, (2015).

Investing in infrastructure pays off

+5%How UK GDP would have grown on average annually from 2000-2010 if infrastructure had matched other global economies.6

The UK is spending less than it used to on infrastructure. In 1950 it spent £1 in every £8 on infrastructure. Today it spends just £1 in every £30.

UK businesses urgently need better transport infrastructure:3

• 91% want a new runway for the South East

• 81% see rail as crucial to their operations

• 96% are concerned about congestion on Britain’s roads

• 89% see investment in motorways and local roads as crucial or beneficial

28The UK’s ranking for overall quality of infrastructure, behind France, Japan, the United States, Canada, and Scandinavia.4

£300bnThe predicted annual cost of traffic jams in the UK by 2030 without adequate road investment.5

3CBI, Turning momentum

into delivery: CBI/AECOM infrastructure survey 2015,

(2015)

4Cebr/CECA, Securing

our economy: The case for infrastructure, (2013)

5INRIX/Centre for Economics

and Business Research, The Future Impact of Congestion in

the UK

6Association for Consultancy and Engineering, Investment

in smart infrastructure requires shift towards “disruptive” business

models, (2015)Sources: CBI, INTRIX, Cebr, Infrastructure Intelligence

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The global trade opportunity for the UK is huge. Research for HSBC by Oxford Economics forecasts a “third wave of globalisation” that will see total global goods exports reach US$68.5 trillion by 2050, nearly four times the value of global exports in 2015.1 The march of industrialisation will continue, while the costs of trade will drop sharply and new markets will open up thanks to changes in trade policy. Technology will also drive rapid change, creating new products and business models. Crucially for strongly service-centric economies like the UK, trade flows will increasingly relate to the movement of services rather than products.

Mature economies, such as the UK, which are faced with higher costs, will continue their move towards higher-value-added manufacturing. This is in response to the increasing global demand for higher-quality and more personalised products. Tariffs and other barriers to trade will continue to fall. In addition to the Trans-Pacific Partnership, further mega-regional trade agreements will be eventually concluded. These include TTIP, the proposed bilateral agreement between the European Union and USA. RCEP, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, is a key trade deal specifically for New Zealand, which will enable it to access the area's 3 billion inhabitants. The incorporation

of the existing ASEAN trade area into RCEP gives the entire region a great opportunity to grow trade.

Key to their success will be providing the supportive environment that will help businesses, including infrastructure upgrades and strong international transport links. One such environment that China is backing centres on cross-continental cooperation. China is planning to build a new Silk Road across a large part of the northern hemisphere. This monumental task has already received funding from the Chinese government and will run an estimated 9,000km through Russia and northern Europe. The thinking behind President Xi Jinping’s plan is that it takes nearly double the amount of time by sea to Europe than it does rail. Cutting the transit time will allow better access for Chinese businesses into European markets.

A growing middle class in international markets will create greater demand for goods and services across the world. The UK must be able to meet demand, wherever it should come from. The BRIC economies are leading a surge in infrastructure development and the UK must keep pace in order to remain competitive in an increasingly competitive world.

Future Growth

Global trade patterns will look very different by 20503

3bnNew members of the middle class by 2050, most in new markets.

The centre of gravity of global trade is shifting eastwards towards Asia

Small and medium firms will be play a bigger part in global trade:

• Businesses will be part of a global connection of agile, specialist micro-multinationals

• Physical borders will become less important and how we define trade will change

• Asia’s share of global exports is predicted to reach 46% in 2050

×4Total global exports will reach US$68.5 trillion by 2050, four times those of 2015.

3HSBC, Global Connections

November 2015

17The number of new runways in China by 2036. New airports will flourish in new economies.

1HSBC, Global Connections November 2015

2Mayor of London, London Infrastructure Plan 2050, (2015).

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Cities are the economic “growth machines of the 21st century”, powered by diverse and “self- reinforcing networks of knowledge, suppliers and support,” says economist Richard Florida2. The top 600 urban centres in the world contain just one fifth of global population but create around half of global GDP.3 The reasons for this include the fact that specialisation is greater, competition and economies of scale increase, and ideas and innovation spread faster in cities. City regions’ also foster face-to-face contact in high value, technology-intensive economies and help cultivate global production chains. City regions succeed because success does not just lie in innovative companies, it is also rooted in the clustering of their supply ‘ecosystems’. The UK must fully harness this link between the success of city regions and growth.

If UK firms are to remain or become leading innovators in technologically complex products and services the links within key city regions must be improved, including airports and new rail lines. Infrastructure development and a growing regional economy go hand in hand; the physical components of interrelated systems providing commodities and services are essential to enable, sustain, or enhance societal living conditions. Applying this principle to the regions of the UK, some of the major components that require improvement can be identified: better connectivity between regional growth centres, a decentralisation of the economy, and further investment in key infrastructure projects in each of the city regions.

Connected regions

London and beyond The City Growth Commission4 identifies six key ‘powerhouse’ super city regions:

• London & the South East• Greater Manchester, West

Yorkshire, South Yorkshire and Merseyside

• The Midlands and Leicester• Glasgow and Edinburgh• Tyne and Wear and Tees Valley• Bristol and Cardiff

London’s connectivity to other global mega-regions remains an important factor in the UK’s growth prospects thanks to an “accelerating dynamic” of ever growing links between global financial centres with London at its heart, says Florida. Agglomeration effects for industries outside the financial sector are crucial and so matter beyond London too.

“Sustainable UK growth will relyincreasingly on our major cities doingfor the North West, North East, WestYorkshire and Midlands what London does for the South East– driving investment” says the 2014 City Growth Commission report.5 Better infrastructure drives such agglomeration effects and supply-chain-driven productivity gains. Much of the knowledge economy thrives in cities, promoting new ideas and innovation and they rely on good transport links to connect businesses to each other.

The City Growth Commission notes that “Without effective, integrated transport connectivity, cities limit the size of their labour markets, risk the competitiveness of their businesses in connecting to trading partners, and undermine the ability of people to access public services and build social capital. The UK currently loses billions of pounds every year as a result

“In a modern, knowledge-based economy, city size matters like never before thanks to deep pools of human capital. There is a powerful correlation between the size of a city and the productivity of its inhabitants.”

Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rt Hon. George Osborne MP

Edinburgh

Newcastle

Manchester

Birmingham

Bristol

London & the South East

Six key cities for regional growth

1Chancellor of the Exchequer, Building a Northern Powerhouse, (2015)

2Richard Florida, The Rise of the Mega-Region, (2007)

3McKinsey & Company

4, 5The RSA City Growth Commission,

Unleashing Metro Growth, (2014)

2.3

6.6

2.5

6.8

1.1

7.9 Stansted7.9 Heathrow5.9 Gatwick

Catchment population (million)

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of congestion and poor connections between cities.”1 In the case of advanced manufacturing in particular, location affects how businesses pool skills, exchange ideas and innovate new products. This effect is felt when manufacturing firms are located close to their research and development, but also to suppliers and competitors.

This is partly because technical knowledge developed in the early phases of the research and development cycle is tacit in nature, says the City Growth Commission. “As a result, person-to- person interactions are critical to advancing and transferring such knowledge...the supply chain is the key unit of analysis for understanding these interdependencies.”2

Birmingham

Improving rail links will also benefit Birmingham. HS2 will not only benefit the cities of the north. Properly exploited, it will drive economic growth and prosperity across the Midlands, bringing or securing 104,000 jobs.6 HS2 could also release significant capacity on the existing mainline and regional rail networks offering options to improve and optimise rail and road accessibility across the Midlands.

The total cost to form the core of this Midlands Engine is estimated to be a relatively modest £3bn.6 To fully exploit HS2, a range of infrastructure investments to join the city’s metro area and the network of smaller Black Country towns and cities must be made:

• Extend the Birmingham metro

• Develop the interchange at UK Central with a well-connected and integrated HS2 interchange

• Include supporting local sustainable connectivity to the Interchange from other surrounding areas

The Midlands Engine

Birmingham has been identified as the perfect Midlands Engine. Birmingham has increased in size since 2004 estimated as growing by 100,000 in population by 2014.3

Birmingham Airport has been looking at ways to accommodate this growing demand. With plenty of capacity and with a significant catchment area, it is well placed to offer flights to both Europe and worldwide.

Large businesses are taking advantage of the benefits of the Midlands Engine; last year HSBC announced that it is to move its head office for its retail and business lending operation from London to Birmingham, moving 1,000 jobs to the Midlands.5 Deutsche Bank has also expanded its operations in Birmingham; it now has 1,500 people based there, in both front and back office capacities. Figures from 2013 put Birmingham on a par with Manchester in terms of Gross Value Added to the greater metropolitan area.4

1, 2The RSA City Growth

Commission

3Birmingham City Council

4Office for National Statistics,

Regional Gross Value Added

5HSBC, Global Connections

November 2015

6UK Government, The Midlands

Engine for Growth

including Solihull, Blyth Valley, Coventry and Warwickshire

• Transport links and accessibility improvements between HS2 and Birmingham Airport

• Secure direct international services from the Midlands to Paris, Brussels and beyond via a direct rail link between HS2 and the existing HS1 line to the Channel Tunnel and wider European High Speed Rail Network

• Bury some more congested parts of Birmingham’s road network, re-routing parts of the congested A38

This has particular resonance for the world class manufacturers in the North of England and the importance of the infrastructure can strengthen their clusters.

The UK as a ‘mega region’ Richard Florida proposes that the UK can be seen as one ‘mega-region’ encompassing the whole of England and South Wales, with Glasgow

and Edinburgh as a second, smaller separate mega region.7 Greater connectivity between the leading regions will enable the UK economy to thrive as a system of cities. As a 2014 study by economists Diane Coyle and Bridget Rosewell notes, “infrastructure investments should encourage...positive spill-overs between London and the other cities...rather than set them up in opposition to each other.”8

Birmingham

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

GVA

£bn

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Gross Value Added, Greater Birmingham 1997 - 2013

7Richard Florida, The Rise of the

Mega-Region, (2007)

8Diane Coyle and Bridget

Rosewell (UK Government Foresight Future of Cities

Project), Investing in city regions, (2014)

Source: ONS

1 KEY REGION IN FOCUS

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REGIONAL CONNECTIVITY

1hr 10

1hr

1hr 1

5

1hr 15

Edinburgh

Newcastle

Manchester

Birmingham

London & South EastBristol

1hr 1

0 1hr

1hr 1

5

1hr 05

Key

Air links

1hr15Flight time

Road linksMajor/Minor

Rail linksMajor/Minor

South EastBristol Birmingham Manchester NewcastleEdinburgh

Sout

h Ea

stBr

istol

Birm

ingh

amM

anch

este

rNe

wca

stle

Edin

burg

h

-2:102:154:005:057:15

2:10-

1:453:005:007:10

2:151:45

-1:403:305:00

4:003:001:40

-2:404:00

5:055:003:302:40

-2:15

7:157:105:004:002:15

-

Road travel times (hours:minutes)

South EastBristol Birmingham Manchester NewcastleEdinburgh

Sout

h Ea

stBr

istol

Birm

ingh

amM

anch

este

rNe

wca

stle

Edin

burg

h

-1:401:252:102:504:20

1:40-

1:253:005:006:40

1:251:25

-1:303:154:15

2:103:001:30

-2:273:20

2:505:003:152:30

-1:30

4:206:404:153:201:30

-

Rail travel times (hours:minutes)

Sources: Highways Agency, The AA, UK Airport route data, National Rail

Regional Connectivity

In addition to external connectivity, it is important that the UK regions are connected internally. Good road, rail and air links ensure that trade, investment, and labour can easily flow in the connected UK marketplace.

There are two forms of internal connectivity; that between the regional hubs and the surrounding areas, and that between the regional hubs themselves.

Connectivity within regionsThe increasing availability of international flights from UK regional airports, and the introduction of some long-haul links, means that it is no longer essential for the whole country to be connected to the London hub. Good links within each region to the regional hub are essential.

Travellers are no longer using smaller regional airports to connect to the London hub, instead they are using larger regional hubs and flying directly to their destination. Therefore, good road and rail links within the regions are of growing importance.1

An additional benefit for business and consumers of increased intra-regional connectivity is the effect of competition. Competition between airports in the South East has spread, with airports in the Midlands and Northern Powerhouse competing within their regions. This has exerted a downward pressure on fares and an increase in routes offered.

Research by the University of Ghent points to a strong link between regional economic growth and air connectivity.2

Connectivity betweenregionsCompetition is not limited to within regions. The roll-out of HS2 will see a greater degree of pressure on London airports from the Midlands and Northern Powerhouse competing with London & the South East.

Air travel remains the preferred mode of transport for journeys of over 3 hours within the UK. Therefore, The Channel Group would like to see regional links maintained and grown at UK airports. With increasing speed and efficiency, air travel is becoming a competitive option to road and rail for journeys between 2 and 3 hours.3 The Channel Group welcomes this healthy competition.

Road & RailFor journeys under 2 hours, road and rail retain their advantage over air travel. The National Connectivity Task Force takes the view that the UK's topography and morphology mean that offering a comprehensive and cost-effective surface transport network is not possible.4 Nevertheless, a good network of roads within and between regions is essential.

Better and more capacious east-west road connections are vital to growing the northern economy to complement the many north-south links. For example, the M62 interchange connecting Manchester and Sheffield comprises a small single carriageway road subject to the weather over the Pennines. A link road under them should be a priority and would complete the ‘triangle’ of major road links between Sheffield, Leeds and Manchester. At up to almost 20 miles it would be the world’s longest road tunnel but could deliver economic benefits of up to £421m a year.5

1, 4National Connectivity Task

Force, Air Connectivity Matters (2015)

2Ghent University, Aviation's

role in city and economic development (2015)

3National Connectivity Task

Force, Review of Regional Accessibility Measures (2015)

5 HM Government, Trans-Pennine

Tunnel Study Interim Report (2015)

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The Greater Birmingham Chambers of Commerce called the idea of a hub airport a myth.2 For the past 50 years the UK has operated a hub model, with Heathrow at the centre. Connections for both long-and short-haul flights were via London. In the last 20 years this has changed in the short-haul market. A greater number of point-to-point flights in Europe, and between the regions, have been driven by greater competition amongst airports, airlines and the growth of low-cost airlines.

These developments are now being seen in the long-haul market, due to the disruptive effects of new

technology and greater competition.

The break-up of BAA has allowed Gatwick, Stansted and Edinburgh to offer long-haul flights that had previously been monopolised by Heathrow.

This increase in competition has had a positive effect for consumers - there is now greater choice and better connectivity without the need for travelling via London. This has been seen most predominantly in the short-haul market, but is now having an effect on long-haul.

Greater competition between airports

What regions need

“Without efficient transport between and within metros, we hold back long-term, sustainable economic growth, connectivity between ... cities is a particular barrier to realising the agglomeration benefits of major urban areas just miles apart. Without a focus on fast, efficient connectivity between and within metros, we risk hindering long-term, sustainable economic growth.”

City Growth Commission1

1The RSA City Growth Commission,

Unleashing Metro Growth, (2014)

2Birmingham Post, Call for

Birmingham Airport expansion after London development plans hit by

delay, 09 Dec 2015.

AIR

UK AIRPORT CONNECTIVITY

Bristol103

2

101

Cardiff 46

2

44

Edinburgh175

8

167Glasgow 187

14

173

Birmingham 110

14

96

Liverpool 71

9

62

Heathrow180

82

98

London & South East

Gatwick 200

50

150

Stansted170

2

168

Luton 125

1

124

City47

1

46

Southampton 40

0

40

East Midlands82

4

78

Manchester222

45

177

Newcastle 74

2

72

Source: UK Airport route data

Regions Total destinations

London & South East 762

Scotland 362

Manchester & Liverpool 293

Midlands 192

South West 149

Airport Total

LH

SH Des

tinati

ons

LH -

Long

hau

lSH

- Sh

ort h

aulKey

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has also lowered the entry barrier into the airline industry. WestJet, Emirates and Norwegian airlines have been successful in offering both short- and long-haul flights from alternative UK airports.

Smaller, more efficient aircraft are opening up long-haul routes to new carriers, allowing the opening of new routes which were previously not financially viable. New aircraft have a longer-range, are smaller, and more fuel efficient. This has made long-haul routes financially viable even with a lower demand. With a new generation of aircraft coming into operation, this effect will only become more pronounced.

Heathrow is the UK’s busiest airport - for now. We are in the age of the consumer, where markets are fragmented as consumers are given more choice and a greater ability to make these decisions. The internet has given consumers far more information than was available even 10 years ago. For airlines, this means websites such as Skyscanner are helping travellers to opt for airports other than the obvious hub, for cost, convenience or both.

A pattern of regional airports will ensure that the UK has the air infrastructure not only required, but demanded by consumers today and in the future.

The Channel Group would like to see a pattern of regional growth centres that spread economic benefits throughout the country.5 With globally connected airports, these cities and regions can secure direct economic growth.

Expansion at Gatwick is essential to ensure competition. It is the only option for expansion that does not undermine regional growth. Gatwick can meet the point-to-point demand and keep the London economy directly connected to international markets.

The Channel Group would like provision to be made for a pattern of regional cities with associated transport infrastructure, but this growth also needs to be spread within the regions. In the South East & London, the growth has been concentrated in the west around Heathrow. Other global cities, such as New York, rely on a dispersed network of transport hubs. The Channel Group supports a new runway at Gatwick and either Birmingham or Stansted, offering greater competition and many benefits for consumers.

The upgrade of Gatwick is essential to ensure competition in the airport market and the continuation of the benefits seen by airlines and consumers over the past few years. A new runway at Heathrow will stifle competition in the long-haul market and will undo all the positive progress that has been made since the break-up of BAA. According to the OECD International transport Forum, if Heathrow were to expand, “the probability of new long-haul direct flights from UK regional airports will diminish”.¹

Keeping costs low for airlines is the only way to offer greater choice for consumers. Airlines make decisions about routes based on economic viability. Already levying the highest airport charges anywhere in the world, Heathrow could charge airlines up to £40 per passenger if expansion went ahead - over 2.5 times the maximum cost at Gatwick.² Only a decentralisation of airport capacity and increased competition will keep costs low for airlines and benefit passengers and businesses.

2016

Support 88%

Oppose 9%

Abstain 2%

Other 0.5%

Survey of Gatwick Diamond Business members' support for second runway at Gatwick Airport6

Gatwick is also more internally connected than Heathrow - serving 13 UK destinations to Heathrow’s 7, which could fall to 4 if the West London hub is expanded. The Channel group recognises that UK airports must be well connected internally as well as externally and challenges other UK airports to increase internal connectivity. Putting Heathrow to shame, Edinburgh Airport flies to 21 UK destinations.4

“Norwegian can contribute to putting 50 Dreamliners into Gatwick. I've looked into it, it's not something I've pulled out of a hat. Gatwick has the network to fly to every corner of Europe. Not all the airports have that”.

BJORN KROSS, CEO, NORWEGIAN AIRLINES³

HeathrowGatwick

Luton Stansted

City

Southampton

The South East & London2 KEY REGION IN FOCUS

1OECD International Transport

Forum, Forecasting Airport Demand: Review of UK Airports

Commission Forecastsand Scenarios , (2015)

2Airports Commission,

Final Report, (2015)

3London Evening Standard,

Norwegian pledges 50 long-haul Boeing 787 Dreamliners for

Gatwick if second runway is built, (2016)

4UK Airport route data

5Ghent University, Aviation's

role in city and economic development (2015)

6Gatwick Diamond Business

(2016)

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ConnectionsThe UK risks missing out on billions of pounds in trade unless it boosts direct flights to the fastest growing world economies. Traffic flows from the UK to international markets such as China and India will grow at a significant multiple to underlying GDP growth. Links with Europe’s ten economic ‘mega regions’ are important but are arguably already well served throughout the UK thanks to the many destinations low cost carriers have added in the last two decades at airports throughout the UK. It is new long-haul links that matter most. For every additional daily flight to each of the eight largest high-growth markets, the UK would increase trade by as much as £1 billion a year, with every increase in 1000 passengers generating up to £920,000 in new business.1

Let Britain Fly estimated that the UK does 20 times more trade with countries with which it has direct flight connections.2 The long-standing need for more airport capacity in the South East must be urgently addressed given that all London airports will be full by 2025.3 However, greater capacity must be built beyond it too. Birmingham Airport

is forecast to have reached capacity by 2040 and future improvements in cost efficiencies and technology will make new routes viable throughout the UK. New efficient aircraft, such as the Boeing 787 and Airbus A350, are delivering better route economics, creating new point-to-point route opportunities, and offering long-haul option that were previously not viable from UK regional airports.

Heathrow, London’s UK air hub, will remain vital to the UK’s global trade links but the arguments for a greater role for non-hub airports are strong and the evidence is that demand for non-hub routes is growing fast globally. Regional airport growth is already strong. The number of passengers using Manchester airport, Britain’s busiest outside London, has risen by more than one-fifth since 2010, to 23 million a year. It is forecast to rapidly grow its passenger numbers and currently carries over 60 per cent of air passengers in the north. Those regional airports carrying six million passengers a year or more, including Birmingham and Edinburgh, are also enjoying strong growth. But room must be made for expansion. Birmingham Airport will need a new runway by around 2030, enabling it to increase capacity to more than 70m passengers.4

Links to high-growth economies are essential

+362%UK trade growth in the eight largest high-growth economies from 1993-2011.

Every new route to international markets boosts trade dramatically.

Global non-hub demand is rising

2000+The number of new city pairs have been added to the aviation network in the last 15 years.

+266%Increase in direct flights to the eight largest high-growth economies from 1993-2011.

£128mAdditional trade per year for every daily flight to a high-growth market.

New air links add significant value

Getting to and from the airport Good surface access to UK airports must be improved if the full potential of better international trade links is to be realised. There is a paucity of ambition and of connected thinking in the UK with almost no concrete plans for better overland links to major airports post 2020.

A CBI survey of more than 50 per cent of passengers cited public transport links as the key determinant in their choice of airport, rising to 65 per cent outside London.5

Better rail links to existing airports are vital along with ensuring local regional links to airports such as Manchester are fast and will be able to cope with growing capacity. The Channel Group calls for an urgent response to the lack of solid proposals to improve overland airport links in the UK, and would like to see coherent plans to ensure the UK makes the most of the network benefits that HS2 can unlock for the nation, as recommended by the Transport Select Committee report in February 2016. The most pressing issue is Gatwick Airport’s rail links which have the highest rail mode share of any

1City Growth Commission,

Final Report, (2015)

2Let Britain Fly, Facts and

Figures

3The Telegraph,

Poor airport connections lose UK billions, (2015)

4Birmingham International

Airport, Towards 2030: Birmingham Airport Masterplan,

(2007)

5CBI, Trading Places: Unlocking

export opportunities through better air links to new markets,

(2013)

Source: CBI, Trading Places: Ulocking export opportunities through better air links to new markets, (2013)

Long-haul passengers from non-LHR UK airports

141210

86420

Source: CAA

Pass

enge

rs p

er y

ear

(mill

ion) 7.3

Regional London (exc. LHR)

5.8

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

5.7 5.9 6.4

5.2 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.3

11.0 10.7 10.8 11.412.6

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Much of the debate surrounding airport expansion has focused on the South of England’s major airports due to their proximity to London. In July 2011, the Edinburgh Air Masterplan was devised reflecting the principles of the 2003 white paper “the future of Air Transport” which laid down a responsible framework for the future of Scottish airports. Edinburgh is the 5th largest airport in Europe and saw the opening of a new £40 million departure lounge extension in 2010. The Masterplan recognises that if projected passenger numbers exceed those forecast beyond 2020, development will need to be accelerated to meet the demand. Up until 2020, the current projections see a steady increase in domestic passenger numbers, recognised in 2010 as 47%. However, in less than four years the number of international flights is expected to surpass this domestic travel. By 2040 passenger numbers are expected to grow to over 20 million based on an average growth of 2.7%.1

Beyond Edinburgh’s airport expansion, better access is required and in 2012 the Airport Surface Access Strategy was born. The Strategy makes clear that while improvement in public transport access is important, road capacity is of increasing long term significance, given the disparate nature of passenger demand and the limited capability of public transport to serve such a geographically-dispersed customer base. This programme goes further than trams, rail and buses and looks at the effect on employees at the airport. Improvements to the Ride 2 Work scheme and car sharing methods are key components. Initiatives such as “kiss and fly” will be grown whereby a passenger is dropped off at the airport from a vehicle which is then driven away, and picked up again on return.

Edinburgh

Edinburgh Airport²

47%Increase in passenger numbers by 2020

20 million +Passenger numbers by 2040

1, 2Edinburgh Airport Masterplan (2011)

UK airport. There is a clear need and demand from passengers and businesses using the Brighton mainline to Gatwick Airport with strong growth predicted to rise from 27,300 in 2011 to 47,600 by 2043. The airport is a major provider of jobs and business growth, and is projected to create more than 22,000 airport-related jobs by 2050, and contribute £1.73 billion per year to the local economy.1 Congestion travelling to the South East leads to lost time for individuals and businesses. Public transport to both airports also needs to be faster with more direct services from Sussex and Surrey towns. Improvements should include a major upgrade of the North Downs Line with station upgrades, rolling stock improvements and electrification, and close examination of more ambitious options including:

• Upgrading of Brighton mainline capacity between Gatwick and London and a look at the case for a BML2 via Uckfield, connecting with Crossrail and terminating at Stansted, which could free capacity on the original Brighton line for better Gatwick Express links into central London.

• A southern rail access to Heathrow Airport that could facilitate the extension of Crossrail services into Surrey possibly encompassing a new rail link broadly paralleling the M25 from Heathrow Airport into Surrey, potentially linking through to Gatwick Airport and beyond.

• Other regional airports should not be forgotten either. Of the 21 UK airports which saw more than one million passengers in 2014, only nine have direct rail connections.2

Edinburgh3 KEY REGION IN FOCUS

1Gatwick Obviously, A train

every 2.5 minutes from Gatwick to London, (2014)

2House of Commons Transport

Select Committee, Surface transport to airports: Planning surface access schemes, (2015)

Catchment population within 60 minutes of airport (million)

LondonCity 8.0Stansted 7.9Heathrow 7.9Luton 6.9Gatwick 6.8

Glasgow 2.7 Edinburgh 2.5

Newcastle 2.3

Manchester 6.6

Birmingham 6.8

Source: DfT, Glasgow Airport, The City of Edinburgh Council

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The focus for much of the transport spending post 2020 should focus on the creation a multi-modal, integrated transport system for both personal travel and freight in the north of England where “infrastructure is dated, poorly integrated, and lacking the large-scale investment it needs”. A February 2016 poll from Ipsos Mori North commissioned by the UK Northern Powerhouse International Conference and Exhibition revealed that 82% of people in the north of England believe 'transport infrastructure investment should be a priority'. The recently announced £600m investment in the Northern Hub, upgrading rail links in the region to cut journey times on trains between Manchester, Leeds, Bradford and Sheffield, should be just the start. HS2, will connect eight of the 10 largest cities in the UK, including Manchester, Leeds and Sheffield, improving travel time, yielding large economic benefits. It is a key transport investment but will only have real value if it forms part of a network that creates significant spill-over effects. To reap greater benefits from the HS2 rail link, the Higgins review of 2014 found the north needs much better internal connectivity. Part of the solution may lie in a High Speed 3 (HS3) east–west line. A One North proposition currently under development proposes investing £15 billion in northern transport across several modes.

Transport for the North (TfN) identifies new rail and road routes across the Pennines as a national priority, as urgent as Crossrail 2 in London, along with a new Liverpool-Manchester Airport-Manchester railway line, both of them linked to HS2. TfN is working on a plan for £15bn-£50bn of infrastructure spending over the next 10 to 15 years.

The Northern Powerhouse4 KEY REGION IN FOCUS

Liverpool Sheffield

Manchester

10 millionCombined Northern Powerhouse population, more than Tokyo, New York or London.

£56 billion Value to the Northern Powerhouse of 'rebalancing' the UK economy.

Why rail travel is becoming more important: • More people are now travelling

by train than at any time since the early 1920s¹

• Rail travel growth is happening much faster than predicted

• Trends suggest demand is set to grow much further still

• Under-30s and young women in particular are much less likely to drive and more likely to opt for public transport including rail travel²

• Annual growth on the West Coast mainline continues to exceed 5%³

• A future capacity crisis may be closer than thought

“Passenger journeys increased by 69.5 per cent between 2002 and 2014 but on a network that grew hardly at all. Cities that are growing also grow trips. This requires capacity, and the existing lines have run out of the ability to provide it.”

The Office of Rail and Road4

The National Infrastructure Commission intends to improve regional interconnectivity and is prioritising northern connectivity, particularly identifying priorities for future investment in the north’s strategic transport infrastructure. Regional infrastructure improvements will benefit businesses both in the north and south. London is increasingly becoming easily accessible from the big northern cities, yet from one northern city to another it is surprisingly difficult

“High density centres require high density people delivery systems, which car based systems cannot easily provide. While 80% of London’s workforce arrives by public transport, the reverse is true in other cities and this has constrained the ability to create high productivity centres.”

Diane Coyle and Bridget Rosewell

RAIL

Source: HM Government, The Northern Powerhouse: One Agenda, One Economy, One North, (2015)

1Railnews, Passenger figures break 90-year record, (2016)

2Railnews, Why rail passengers growth will continue and has nothing to do with privatisation, (2015)

3Railnews, Are big changes afoot for the rail industry?, (2015)

4ORR, Passenger Rail Usage 2014-15 Quarter 4 Statistical Release, (2015)

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for businesses to trade. Improving connectivity between cities will allow businesses to expand and make trading more efficient. Similarly in the southwest with the electrification of the Great Western Railway travelling to and from the region will become easier.

The Brighton mainline needs updating and the London & South Coast Study, ordered by the Chancellor George Osborne in 2015, promised to include BML2 and is due to be published in Autumn 2016. ¹

Providing a better rail link to the underused Stansted airport would enable Gatwick and Stansted to work together like a hub airport to increase international visitors. It will also enable better cross-London connections for those living in Kent and Sussex. Liberal Democrat East Sussex County Council Councillor Rosalyn St Pierre, who opposes BML2, acknowledged that “People in Sussex are forced to live with one of the worst performing railway networks in the country”.2

In Cambridgeshire, the small town of Wisbech hasn’t seen a railway line in many years, but it has become a thriving town in recent times. The process of re-opening railway lines can take years of consultation and this line, like the Uckfield to Lewes line in East Sussex, is no different. The problem is that Britain has seen a third of its line capacity, roughly 17,000 miles, shut down and the process of re-opening is something Whitehall is reluctant to consider, not least because it may be cheaper to add rail capacity through pharaonic projects such as HS2.

In Scotland, the Edinburgh Glasgow Improvement Plan (EGIP) is underway. Scottish Transport Minister Derek Mackay argued that the Edinburgh Gateway station will offer “new journey opportunities to the airport,

places of work and the surrounding business development area”. A total of £742 million out of a proposed £5bn for rail improvement in Scotland has already been put forward by the Scottish government. The funding is being ploughed into an array of projects, from Edinburgh's Gateway station and Glasgow’s Queen Street station, to the line improvements between Stirling and Dunblane. The plan is for 150 km of electrified line in Scotland and a 30% increase in capacity by 2020, providing faster, more reliable trains. The programme faced criticism early on in the process, with the original estimate being sliced by £300m and a capacity reduction cut by 20%. Nevertheless, the programme is on schedule and will deliver real change to the aged Scottish network.³ The effect of this regional infrastructure improvement will rebalance the scales, shifting the economic hub away from London and allow the UK to compete as a whole on the world stage. Many historic London-centric businesses, such as accountancy and law firms, now have offices in Leeds, Bristol and Manchester. Cheaper rental space has taken them there, and the lower cost to their customers has kept them there. Employees not living in London benefit from the lower cost of living. London cannot be entirely ignored. It is constantly growing, with the population expected to reach 10 million by the early 2030s and nearly 11.5 million by 2050.4, 5 Transport infrastructure in London is already the most advanced in the country; it boasts the underground, regular buses, trains from a multitude of stations, as well as air travel. All of these modes of transport are fundamental to daily life, and the demands placed on them are vast and varied; from personal travel to the transportation of goods: the international to the local. Due to

Newcastle is one of the key government regional growth areas and the vision is to have "a transport system that is an engine for economic growth”.6 In 2013 the Gateshead and Newcastle Delivery Plan stretched to 2030 and aimed to promote and improve sustainable travel and ensure effective maintenance of the existing works. Of key importance is expansion of the A1, a vital link to Edinburgh and the South, which faces continual congestion.7

The National Infrastructure Delivery plan 2016 - 2021 released in March 2016 contains a £1billion package of improvement and maintenance works. Specifically it features the completion of projects to create a motorway link from the North East to the rest of

England and start of construction on both the dualling of the section north of Newcastle between Morpeth and Ellingham, and a widening scheme on the A1 Newcastle-Gateshead Western Bypass.8

The Port of Tyne has also received the go ahead for development at a cost of £350 million which will aim to provide full time employment to 300 people. The project is located on a 54 hectare brownfield site of which 38.8 hectares is a designated enterprise zone. Conveniently located only 5 minutes from the metro station with connectivity to Newcastle airport and London, the project offers the port huge support to continue the region's strong tradition in heavy engineering.9

Newcastle5 KEY REGION IN FOCUS

£350mInvestment in development of the Port of Tyne.

£1 billionValue of improvement and maintenance works outlined in the National Infrastructure Delivery Plan 2016.

the sheer volume of people using the transport systems in London, they are often under pressure or operating in excess of maximum capacity at peak times. In order to improve, there must be modernisation and new lines built. London Bridge station is undergoing a multi-billion pound overhaul like Kings-Cross-St Pancras before it. London Underground is investing millions of pounds upgrading its network and purchasing new rolling stock. See 'The job isn't done in London' overleaf for a detailed analysis.

“[Poor road and rail infrastructure]is estimated at costing the Sussex economy around £2 billion a year.I am supporting the Brighton Mainline 2 (BML2) campaign which will see the reopening of the Lewes to Uckfield Rail line.”

Maria Caulfield, Member of Parliament for LewesSpeaking to The Channel Group

1HM Government, Terms of

Reference – London and South Coast Rail Corridor Study, (2016)

2Sussex Express, Tories and Lib

Dems clash over progress towards reinstating Lewes-Uckfield

services, (2016)

3Network Rail, Edinburgh

Glasgow Improvement Programme, (2016)

4Mayor of London, London

Infrastructure Plan 2050, (2013)

5HM Government, National Infrastructure Delivery Plan

2016–2021, (2016)

6, 7Gateshead Council, Gateshead

and Newcastle Infrastructure Delivery Plan, (2013)

8HM Government Infrastructure

and Projects Authority, National Infrastructure Delivery

Plan 2016–2021, (2016)

9HM Government Regeneration

Investment Organisation, Regeneration Project: Port of Tyne – Newcastle / Tyne and

Wear, (2015)

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Journey times on UK roads are slowing, clogging the nation’s roads due to congestion. The roads are essential for trade and this is holding back expansion and growth. The perceived rate of deterioration in reliability on the road network due to congestion increased to pre-recession levels according to a 2015 FTA report, and average speeds across the network are falling.1

According to the 2014 CBI/URS Infrastructure Survey, 99% of firms surveyed said that the quality or cost of infrastructure has a significant impact on their investment decisions.2

The urgency of addressing the main freight route into Europe is especially pressing given the chaos caused in 2015 by the congestion arising from Operation Stack, which closed the M20 for weeks at a time.

There is scope to move at least some of this freight to rail. European Commission forecasts predict a doubling of Channel Tunnel rail freight in the next five years, as Eurotunnel announced it would reduce the current level of track access charges imposed on rail freight operators by up to 50%. According to the FTA, rail freight should also benefit from new national planning guidelines that should encourage private investment in strategic rail freight interchanges.3

There is the potential for freight to double on the West Coast mainline and Felixstowe to London line, to grow by 75% on the East Coast mainline, and by a third on the line from Southampton to the Midlands.4

FREIGHTThe end of bulk coal rail freight in the coming decade, as the UK’s coal-fired power stations close for good, may further create capacity, and create opportunities to increase the transport of goods via rail beyond 2026. Government and Network Rail must make their commitment to rail freight development clear to spur investment decisions from operators if this potential is to be realised. Wider gauge capacities at key points for wider use of containers will be needed in key parts of the network.

The job isn't done in LondonLondon and peripheral locations within the South East of England are clear beneficiaries of the agglomeration effect that produces faster trend growth.London has been a beneficiary of much of the UK’s transport infrastructure spending in recent years, some would say disproportionately so.

Yet London’s importance to UK growth, and the projections for the growth in both its resident and working populations, means the UK should invest much more in order to handle these greater numbers.

Future London projects The constraints imposed by the existing infrastructure and network require ambitious planning to meet growing capacity demands.

Construction innovations have allowed increasingly ambitious projects such as Crossrail’s 26 miles of new rail tunnels under London.

Applying innovative thinking to other problems could yield solutions including these proposals: • Replacing the disjointed roads

which make up London’s current inner ring road with an orbital tunnel estimated to cost £15-25 billion.

• A £6bn bored tunnel crossing the Thames between East Tilbury and Gravesham.

• Crossrail 2 costing an estimated £27-32 billion and potentially set for delivery around 2030 would help connect more of London’s outer reaches, speeding travel times. This should be funded but even greater ambition is needed.

• Hardly yet on the drawing board, Crossrail 3, including a 4-kilometre section of tunnels connecting Euston and Waterloo, would connect the West Coast mainline corridor with services to the south - further boosting the network effects of the national rail system.

70%Transport capacity growth required by 2050.

£500 billion Spending needed on transport infrastructure.

£1.5 trillion Extended economic benefits.

Source: Mayor of London, London Infrastructure Plan 2050, (2013)

1FTA, Logistics Report 2015, (2015)

2CBI, Infrastructure survey: Political uncertainty holding back transformational progress on infrastructure, (2014)

2European Commission, European Commission welcomes Eurotunnel's plan to reduce charges by up to 50%, (2014)

3Freight Trabnsport Association, Rail freight infrastructure funding, (2007)

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Bristol & Cardiff6 KEY REGION IN FOCUS

Bristol itself has seen a different take on funding for an “enterprise zone”, instead of building a business park, the council located it next to the main train station to avoid people travelling out of town. Developments at Bristol airport have also begun, with planning permission in place for a development of facilities to accommodate 10 million passengers a year. The airport's masterplan extends to 2030 and sees the expansion of its existing terminal whilst planning to support 5,686 jobs by 2030 and have a total regional

employment impact of 8,606 by 2030.

The Channel Group is disappointed that the electrification of the Great Western Railway has fallen behind schedule. Electrification across the Great Western network would be key to the development of Cardiff and Bristol as a key economic engines in the southwest. Not only would trains be more efficient with reduced running costs, but journey times would be shorter.

10 millionPassenger capacity after improvement works at Bristol airport.

8500 +Additional jobs created by increased capacity.

BristolCardiffSevern crossings

About 95% of UK imports and exports by volume go by sea, and volumes are forecast to grow in the long-term. There is a compelling need for substantial additional port capacity over the next 20-30 years, including the creation of the ‘Atlantic Gateway’.¹ The UK ports sector comprises a variety of company, trust and municipal ports, all operating on commercial principles, independent of government and very largely without public subsidy. The private sector operates 15 of the largest 20 ports by tonnage and around two-thirds of the UK’s ports traffic.2 Supporting this growth with internal links is vital. Port-centric warehousing and the increasing proportion of all freight traffic arriving in the expanding northern ports means that the centre of gravity of the UK’s freight and logistics industry is in the north, according to Transport for the North. Current capacity will not meet future demand for effective freight movement. The trend towards lean inventory models, which demand fast, reliable deliveries, adds a further imperative here. UK freight operators who use UK seaports overwhelmingly indicate that congestion is worsening, especially along access roads to ports. The government allows judgements about when and where new developments might be proposed, to be made, based on commercial factors. However, the government has worked with the ports industry to establish a partnership that seeks to provide a cohesive platform for future development in the ports industry.

Increased port capacity is in the 'Top 40' priority infrastructure investments. The Government is investigating ways to extend capacity over the next 20-30 years.3

Southampton The UK’s second largest port is the infrastructure gateway of Southampton Port recognised as one of the very few UK international gateways whose commercial growth is critical to regional and national economic success. The Port developed a regional development plan that runs to 2030, and seeks to estimate long-term future demand.4 In 2007, the Port handled 44m tonnes of cargo,5 an increase of 33% since 1998. By 2030 it is predicted that over 62 million tonnes will pass through the Port.6

The Channel Group recommends that the ports in the UK are integrated more strategically with the regional infrastructure network. Better road and rail links can provide a more efficient operation of the ports. These improvements are essential to support the now commonplace Just In Time model of supply chain management.7 As discussed previously, increased rail capacity may come after 2026 with the reduction in coal transport.

MARITIME

1HM Government, Policy on

Maritime Sector 2010-2015, (2010)

2, 3HM Government,

Infrastructure Pitchbook

4ABP, Port of Southampton

Master Plan 2009-2030, (2009)

5DfT, Maritime Statistics 2007,

(2007)

6ABP, Forecast demand analysis for the Port of Southampton to

2030, (2009)

7DfT, The container freight

end-to-end journey An analysis of the end-to-end journey of

containerised freight through UK international gateways, (2008)

8National Connectivity Task

Force, Air Connectivity Matters (2016)

Northern IrelandThis paper has not explored the infrastructure investments required in Northern Ireland. This is due in part to the geographic isolation of Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK, but also to the relatively porous land border with the Republic of Ireland.

The two airports in Belfast offer a mix of long- and short-haul flights. Historically, Northern Ireland has been dependent on London as a hub, but advances in aviation technology

have reduced this. In addition, surface transport improvements to the Republic of Ireland, where the aviation tax regime is markedly different, mean that business travellers can access cheaper and more numerous routes with increasing ease.8 Despite the economic consequences of leakage to the Republic of Ireland, The Channel Group believes that competition between the nations is providing value to businesses and consumers at present.

Source: Bristol Airport, Masterplan, (2006)

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• Regional cities are key for UK economic growth.

• There has been a substantial move away from London-centric infrastructure projects. However, more can be done to prevent London becoming the UK’s sole business destination.

• Better connectivity between and within the regions is essential.

• Regional growth centres can only be effective if their infrastructure needs are met by international connectivity.

• New airport capacity in the South East is paramount to create and maintain London’s position as a leading global business destination. Gatwick is the only option for expansion that does not undermine regional growth. It can meet the point-to-point demand and keep the London economy directly connected to international markets.

Infrastructure is fundamental for UK growth, yet investment has deteriorated over recent decades. The UK needs to invest £400 billion to deliver all the infrastructure projects planned by the UK government to 2020, and much more beyond.

The Channel Group advocates that support is given to developing a pattern of regional growth centres that

spread economic benefits throughout the country. With globally connected airports, these cities and regions can secure direct economic growth.

Growth also needs to be spread within the regions. In the south the growth has been concentrated around Heathrow. Other global cities, such as New York, rely on a dispersed network of transport. The Channel Group supports a new runway at Gatwick which is essential to ensure competition in London by delivering more point-to-point capacity. A new runway at Heathrow will stifle competition in the long-haul market and will undo all the positive progress made since the break up of BAA. Further expansion is required at either Birmingham or Stansted, to offer greater competition and more benefits for consumers. The Channel Group urges decisiveness when discussing improvements to overland airport links in the UK and calls for comprehensive plans to ensure the UK makes the most of the network effects that HS2 can unlock.

The Channel Group recommends that the ports in the UK are integrated more strategically with the regional infrastructure network, with better road and rail links making accessibility more efficient.

Increased rail freight capacity may come after 2026, with the reduction in coal transport. This will provide the opportunity for freight to be moved

Conclusion

from road to rail, increasing efficiency and reducing the burden on the UK’s road network.

To meet its potential the UK must make itself available to the global economy, which is set to grow dramatically in the coming decades. It must develop connections with the areas of greatest growth, principally southeast Asia. This can be supported by internationally connected regional airports.

Focusing investment in six key city regions, treating them as inseparable economic clusters and building better links between these regions should be a priority. Without substantial infrastructure investment, the UK economy will be unfit to compete in the globalised market.

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Registered company no. OC401170.