Powering Progress Together – Providing Energy Storage ...€¦ · (Supercapacitors, Flow...

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Powering Progress Together – Providing Energy Storage Solutions for a Changing World

Joep Huijsmans, Sr-Technology Advisor Long Range Research & New Energy Technologies 6th Heat & Storage Symposium, Swiss Competence Center for Energy Research, October 25, 2017, Martigny, Switzerland

November 2016 Long Range Research

Copyright of Shell International

Definitions & Cautionary note

2017 2

Reserves: Our use of the term “reserves” in this presentation means SEC proved oil and gas reserves. Resources: Our use of the term “resources” in this presenta tion includes quantities of oil and gas not yet classified as SEC proved oil and gas reserves. Resources a re consistent with the Society of Petroleum Engineers 2P and 2C definitions. Organic: Our use of the term Organic includes SEC proved oil and gas reserves excluding changes resulting from acquisitions, divestments and year-average pricing impact. Sha les: Our use of the term ‘sha les’ refers to tight, sha le and coa l bed methane oil and gas acreage. The companies in which Roya l Dutch Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments a re separa te lega l entities. In this presenta tion “Shell”, “Shell group” and “Royal Dutch Shell” a re sometimes used for convenience where references a re made to Roya l Dutch Shell plc and its subsidia ries in genera l. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” a re a lso used to refer to subsidia ries in genera l or to those who work for them. These expressions a re a lso used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particula r company or companies. ‘‘Subsidia ries’’, “Shell subsidia ries” and “Shell companies” as used in this presenta tion refer to companies over which Roya l Dutch Shell plc either directly or indirectly has control. Entities and unincorpora ted a rrangements over which Shell has joint control a re genera lly referred to “joint ventures” and “joint opera tions” respectively. Entities over which Shell has significant influence but neither control nor joint control a re referred to as “associa tes”. The term “Shell interest” is used for convenience to indica te the direct and/ or indirect ownership interest held by Shell in a venture, pa rtnership or company, a fter exclusion of a ll third-party interest. This presenta tion conta ins forward-looking sta tements concerning the financia l condition, results of opera tions and businesses of Roya l Dutch Shell. All sta tements other than sta tements of historica l fact a re, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking sta tements. Forward-looking sta tements a re sta tements of future expecta tions tha t a re based on management’s current expecta tions and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncerta inties tha t could cause actua l results, performance or events to differ materia lly from those expressed or implied in these sta tements. Forward-looking sta tements include, among other things, sta tements concerning the potentia l exposure of Roya l Dutch Shell to market risks and sta tements expressing management’s expecta tions, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking sta tements a re identified by their use of terms and phrases such as ‘‘anticipa te’’, ‘‘believe’’, ‘‘could’’, ‘‘estimate’’, ‘‘expect’’, ‘‘goa ls’’, ‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’, ‘‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘‘risks’’, “schedule”, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘should’’, ‘‘ta rget’’, ‘‘will’’ and simila r terms and phrases. There a re a number of factors tha t could a ffect the future opera tions of Roya l Dutch Shell and could cause those results to differ materia lly from those expressed in the forward-looking sta tements included in this presenta tion, including (without limita tion): (a ) price fluctua tions in crude oil and na tura l gas; (b) changes in demand for Shell’s products; (c) currency fluctua tions; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) environmenta l and physica l risks; (h) risks associa ted with the identifica tion of suitable potentia l acquisition properties and ta rgets, and successful negotia tion and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to interna tiona l sanctions; (j) legisla tive, fisca l and regula tory developments including regula tory measures addressing climate change; (k) economic and financia l market conditions in various countries and regions; (l) politica l risks, including the risks of expropria tion and renegotia tion of the terms of contracts with governmenta l entities, delays or advancements in the approva l of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; and (m) changes in trading conditions. All forward-looking sta tements conta ined in this presenta tion a re expressly qua lified in their entirety by the cautionary sta tements conta ined or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking sta tements. Additiona l risk factors tha t may a ffect future results a re conta ined in Roya l Dutch Shell’s 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2015 (ava ilable a t www.shell.com/ investor and www.sec.gov ). These risk factors a lso expressly qua lify a ll forward looking sta tements conta ined in this presenta tion and should be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking sta tement speaks only as of the da te of this presenta tion, 19 September 2017. Neither Roya l Dutch Shell plc nor any of its subsidia ries undertake any obliga tion to publicly upda te or revise any forward-looking sta tement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materia lly from those sta ted, implied or inferred from the forward-looking sta tements conta ined in this presenta tion. We may have used certa in terms, such as resources, in this presenta tion tha t United Sta tes Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) strictly prohibits us from including in our filings with the SEC. U.S. Investors a re urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No 1-32575, ava ilable on the SEC website www.sec.gov.


The world needs more and cleaner energy

3

“ Energy is the golden thread that connects

economic growth, social equity, and

environmental sustainability” Ban Ki-Moon

Former UN Secretary General, April 2012

“ The ability to question rather than cling to

old beliefs is vital for tackling the energy

challenge” Ben van Beurden

CEO Royal Dutch Shell, June 2016


Shell's role in the transition to a low -carbon world

4

Developing our gas business Biofuels business

Advocate CO2 pricing Scenarios thought leadership Coalitions & government advisory

New Energies business

Advancing CCS R&D in low carbon technologies Shell Technology Ventures


World class research and development Combined with local know-how

5

Market/regional services

Global innovation

USA

Netherlands Germany

India

China

Qatar Oman

Brazil

Houston Amsterdam Bangalore


A look at energy and emissions today (estimated 2015)

6

Total emissions: 52 GTCO2e

Residential, services and others

Transport

Industry

Livestock, agriculture and land use

Electricity and heat production

2015

Greenhouse gas emission sources

Sources: Shell, drawing on IPCC 4th Assessment Report / 5th Assessment Report, IEA, BP Sta tistica l Review of World Energy, Global Methane Initia tive

Gas

Oil

Coal

Bioenergy

Nuclear

Solar

Wind

Other

Energy source:

2 0 1 5

Primary energy sources

Oil and gas make up a round ha lf the world’s primary energy supply


Energy for a changing world

There is more demand for energy globally as the world’s population and living standards increase

Rising demand Global energy demand will likely be almost 60% higher in 2060 than today, with 2 billion vehicles on the road (800 million today).

Ongoing supply Renewable energy could triple by 2050, but we will still need large amounts of oil and gas to provide the full range of energy products that the world needs.

Mitigating climate change Net-zero emissions is a potentially achievable societal ambition.

Growing population Global population is expected to increase from around 7.4 billion today to nearly 10 billion by 2050, with 67% living in cities.

7

Source: UN Population Fund; UN World population Prospects (2015 revision); World Urbanisation Prospects (2014 revision); IEA, Energy Technology Perspectives 2015; Shell New Lens Scenarios


The Pace of Energy Decarbonization will vary by Industry Sector

8


Launched a New Energies Business to Explore new Opportunities

New fuels Cleaner

transporta tion

Biofuels +

hydrogen

In te g ra te d e n e r g y so lu tio n s NL + USA wind

Solar for

enhanced oil

Co n n e cte d cu s to m e r Connected

mobility

Connected

energy


Global Perspective

Policy coordination vs technology A journey to net-zero emissions

10 Long Range Research

Source: Shell FET ana lysis

Compact cities

CCS

H2

100 EJ bioenergy

Sola r fuels Advanced ba tteries

electrifica tion intermittent renewables (PV, wind), storage buildings codes & standards

efficiency

Large sca le CO 2 offset mechanisms

Pro

gre

ss t

hro

ug

h c

oo

rdin

ati

on

an

d

reg

ula

tory

dri

ve

P ro g re s s b y te ch n o lo g ica l b re a k th ro u g h s w ith s tro n g co m m e rcia l d r ive


Long Range Research (LRR) – Back to Basics and Fundamental R&D

New Energy Develop a radica lly better energy carrier using low

cost sola r energy combined with novel technologies for energy storage and conversion

Chemicals Find new pa thways to convert methane to products

Enabling sciences Electrochemistry Materia ls science Structured ca ta lysts & interfacia l phenomena Transport phenomena Computa tiona l materia l science & chemistry Biosciences

Emphasis on scientific areas where: (i) we want to build capability; (ii) there is significan innovation headrooom; (iii) it has impact across multiple applications


The Long Range Research Technology Platform

DENSE ENERGY CARRIERS (DEC)

ADVANCED ENERGY STORAGE (AES)

METHANE TO PRODUCTS (M2P) PROGRAMS

Ultra Low Cost High Efficiency Solar PV

Conversion of Photons to H2

Computational Material Science & Chemistry

CO2 Direct Air Capture

Novel Routes to Syngas and HC Fuel Synthesis

Artificial Photosynthesis

Intercalation-based Battery Systems

Novel Approaches

(Supercapacitors, Flow Batteries)

Integrated System Analysis and Product Choice

Chemistry & Catalysis (a) Fundamentals (b) Oxidative Pathways (c) Pyrolytic/Thermal Pathway

Separations

Conversion-based Battery Systems

Electrolytes THEMES

Discovering the Unknown

ENABLING CAPABILITIES

Bio-Sciences & Bio-Engineering

Exploratory Experimentation 12


PV Auction Database: PPA prices decline

13

Source: Official government publications, World Bank, IFC, BNEF, various news sources Latest 3 bids <30$/MWh


Solar Energy: Pathway to Dense Energy Carriers

14

Photons

Electrons

Hydrogen

Hydrocarbons (Diesel, Methane )

Highest product utility Lowest handling costs Most compact use

Ammonia

Methanol

CO2

Heating Lighting

Power Cooking Heating/ Cooling Persona l mobility Rail

Persona l mobility Heavy transport Industria l hea t Power Rail Cooking Heating/ Cooling

TO END-USER

TO END-USER

TO END-USER

Util

ity (e

.g. d

ensit

y)

Cos

t

Highest energy utiliza tion Lowest production costs Smallest production footprint

Electricity is moving from being one of the most expensive energy carriers to tha t with the lowest cost,

with sola r genera tion offering the highest energy utiliza tion and the smallest footprint.


Electrolysis the backbone for Dense(r) Energy Carriers

15

H2

HC Fuel

MeOH

NH3

Electrons

10-20 $/ MWh Water

electrolysis

Haber Bosch

Atmospheric N2

Atmospheric CO2

Ease

of u

se

(tran

spor

t, sto

rage

)

Cost of synthesis • Technology & molecula r

building block for the other energy carriers

• First deployments: “Molecule” va lue of hydrogen significantly above fuel va lue. Large existing market in refining and fertilisers

• What does systems infrastructure look like?

Water

Economic & Society optimum unknown

Fischer Tropsch

Synthesis

“Cost” of “Feed” September 2017 Energy Transition Summit - Bangalore


Dense Energy Carriers – Direct routes

16

H2

HC Fuel

MeOH

NH3

Electrons

10-20 $/ MWh Atmospheric

N2 Atmospheric

CO2

Ease

of u

se

(tran

spor

t, sto

rage

)

Cost of synthesis Direct routes

• Would a ll be electrochemica l • Technology and sca le-up

cha llenges simila r to water electrolysis

• How does required unit opera tions effect molecule choice?

Water

Economic & Society optimum unknown

Cost of “Feed”

?

?

?

September 2017 Energy Transition Summit - Bangalore


The Long Range Research Technology Platform

DENSE ENERGY CARRIERS (DEC)

ADVANCED ENERGY STORAGE (AES)

METHANE TO PRODUCTS (M2P) PROGRAMS

Ultra Low Cost High Efficiency Solar PV

Conversion of Photons to H2

Computational Material Science & Chemistry

CO2 Direct Air Capture

Novel Routes to Syngas and HC Fuel Synthesis

Artificial Photosynthesis

Intercalation-based Battery Systems

Novel Approaches

(Supercapacitors, Flow Batteries)

Integrated System Analysis and Product Choice

Chemistry & Catalysis (a) Fundamentals (b) Oxidative Pathways (c) Pyrolytic/Thermal Pathway

Separations

Conversion-based Battery Systems

Electrolytes THEMES

Discovering the Unknown

ENABLING CAPABILITIES

Bio-Sciences & Bio-Engineering

Exploratory Experimentation 17


Energy Storage: Falling costs & significant expansions of lithium -ion batteries

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Similar trends for Solar PV & Li-ion EV packs (~20% cost reductions for every doubling of production)

2010

2015

Solar PV

Li-ion EV packs

1976

1988

1998

18

September 2017 Energy Transition Summit - Bangalore


Why Electrochemical Energy Storage?

Highly efficient; enables broader use of high-quality energy as electricity

It’s the most flexible with the grea test opportunity space, due to its range of sizes, and applicability across sectors to provide energy services (sta tionary power, mobility, consumer products)

For rechargeable ba tteries, the infrastructure is already in place or can be readily expanded with known technology for “fueling”

Storage options set aga inst incumbents (fossil fuels). The green a rea is indica tive of “utility-sca le” storage; decentra lized H2 represents use of excess renewable electricity. Thermal storage is most efficient when used as hea t.

kWh MWh GWh TWh

second

minute

hour

day

month

yea r

Flywheels

Butane lighter

Petrol tank

H2 Pumped hydro

Ba tteries Utility sca le

Oil, LNG tank

CAES

Decentra lized H2

Thermal

Range of energy storage technologies

Recent performance improvements & price declines have opened new applica tions & markets

Still significant opportunities for technology improvement to enable widespread deployment

Copyright of Shell International 20

Long Range Research: Key External Technical Collaborations

West Coast Berkeley Stanford

UK Hub Imperia l, Cambridge, Oxford Manchester / Exeter

NL Hub: TU Delft, Utrecht TU Eindhoven DIFFER, ECN

China CAS-SARI and a ffilia tes India

IISc, NCL Brazil Hub

Sao Paulo/ FAPESP

MIT Texas Rice, UT Austin, Texas A&M

Powering Progress Together – Providing Energy Storage ...€¦ · (Supercapacitors, Flow...

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