Power Supply Planning CAWCD Board of Director’s …...2014/06/24 · 2011 Integrated Strategic...
Transcript of Power Supply Planning CAWCD Board of Director’s …...2014/06/24 · 2011 Integrated Strategic...
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June 24, 2014 9:00 a.m. – 4:00 p.m.
Power Supply Planning CAWCD Board of Director’s Workshop
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Agenda 9:00 Introduction and objectives – Pam Pickard/Carol Zimmerman 9:15 Review agenda – Ed Means 9:20 Introduction to scenario planning – Ed Means 9:40 Social responsibility concept exercise 10:15 Break 10:30 Introduction of scenarios 10:45 Scenario A: “Timing Energy Diversification” 11:30 Scenario B: “Continuity Reigns” 12:15 Lunch 12:45 Scenario C: “Balancing Act” 1:30 Scenario D: “Managing Expectations” 2:15 Break 2:30 Identification and discussion of common elements 3:30 Group discussion of next steps – H. Macre/G. Carpenter 4:00 Adjourn
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Agenda 9:00 Introduction and objectives – Pam Pickard/Carol Zimmerman 9:15 Review agenda – Ed Means 9:20 Introduction to scenario planning – Ed Means 9:40 Social responsibility concept exercise 10:15 Break 10:30 Introduction of scenarios 10:45 Scenario A: “Timing Energy Diversification” 11:30 Scenario B: “Continuity Reigns” 12:15 Lunch 12:45 Scenario C: “Balancing Act” 1:30 Scenario D: “Managing Expectations” 2:15 Break 2:30 Identification and discussion of common elements 3:30 Group discussion of next steps – H. Macre/G. Carpenter 4:00 Adjourn
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Agenda 9:00 Introduction and objectives – President Pam Pickard
Welcome
Participants
Context – Carol Zimmerman
Facilitator introduction
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Context
2010 Strategic Plan: Power Generation
2011 Integrated Strategic Plan
Top 5 Issues from Power Retreat
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2010 Strategic Plan: Power Generation Objectives & Action Plans
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P10: Develop a long-term energy strategy and integrated resource plan that includes a diversified and sustainable supply portfolio. Coordinate with the water IRP.
2011 CAP Integrated Strategic Plan
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Top 5 Issues from Power Retreat
1) CO2 Regulations & Climate Change
2) Partnership alternatives & opportunities
3) Social responsibility
4) Diversification
5) Ongoing evaluation & education
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Workshop Objectives
Conduct scenario planning to address three key
policy questions:
1. When do we diversify (fuels & geographically)?
2. What kind of partnering is required/desirable?
3. What kind of process do we need to continue to be
informed?
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Facilitator Ed Means
34 years of experience working in water utilities
18 yrs with MWD - Chief of Ops/Acting General Manager
Consulting for last 15 yrs
Over 125 publications in professional journals
Scenario Planning for over a dozen organizations
California Energy Commission/WRF Energy/Water Research Needs Plan
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Agenda 9:00 Introduction and objectives – Pam Pickard/Carol Zimmerman 9:15 Review agenda – Ed Means 9:20 Introduction to scenario planning – Ed Means 9:40 Social responsibility concept exercise 10:15 Break 10:30 Introduction of scenarios 10:45 Scenario A: “Timing Energy Diversification” 11:30 Scenario B: “Continuity Reigns” 12:15 Lunch 12:45 Scenario C: “Balancing Act” 1:30 Scenario D: “Managing Expectations” 2:15 Break 2:30 Identification and discussion of common elements 3:30 Group discussion of next steps – H. Macre/G. Carpenter 4:00 Adjourn
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Agenda 9:00 Introduction and objectives – Pam Pickard/Carol Zimmerman 9:15 Review agenda – Ed Means 9:20 Introduction to scenario planning – Ed Means 9:40 Corporate responsibility concept exercise 10:15 Break 10:30 Introduction of scenarios 10:45 Scenario A: “Timing Energy Diversification” 11:30 Scenario B: “Continuity Reigns” 12:15 Lunch 12:45 Scenario C: “Balancing Act” 1:30 Scenario D: “Managing Expectations” 2:15 Break 2:30 Identification and discussion of common elements 3:30 Group discussion of next steps – H. Macre/G. Carpenter 4:00 Adjourn
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Introduction to Scenario Planning
“ It is a disciplined way of describing and anticipating future outcomes and making
choices today with an understanding of how things might turn out.”
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Scenario Planning
Objective - Make decisions that would be most
beneficial no matter how the future unfolds.
Adaptation of classic military intelligence methods.
Military analysts generate simulation games for policy makers. The games combine known facts about the future, w/ plausible alternative social, technical, economic & political trends which are key driving forces.
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Cone of Relative Certainty
Present Future Horizon
Potential Scenarios
Increasing Uncertainty
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Cone of Relative Certainty
Present Future Horizon
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Benefits of Scenario Planning
Helps us understand the uncertainties that lie before us, and what they might mean
It helps us “rehearse” our responses to those possible futures
And it helps us spot them as they begin to unfold
Creates alignment around a strategic plan
Allows key managers to respond quickly
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Scenario Planning Process
1
Frame the Question(s)
4 Map Paths
To Each Scenario
2 Discuss
Driving Forces & Critical
Uncertainties
5 ID Common
Elements
3
Develop Scenarios
6 Develop
Signposts & Triggers
/Implement
Our Focus Today
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Driving Forces/Critical Uncertainties for CAP
1. Regulatory activity – Coal & NGS availability 2. Washington DC politics 3. Cost/ Public willingness to pay 4. Consumer environmental attitudes 5. Economy 6. Population growth 7. Energy demand growth 8. Climate change 9. Drought 10. Litigation 11. Energy variability
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Why We Might Diversify
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NGS Repayment Issues
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Key Uncertainties for CAP?
1. NGS or No NGS 2. Cost / Public willingness to pay 3. Social responsibility
2 Discuss
Driving Forces & Critical
Uncertainties
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Workshop Objectives
Conduct scenario planning to address three key
policy questions:
1. When do we diversify (fuels & geographically)?
2. What kind of partnering is required/desirable?
3. What kind of process do we need to continue to be
informed?
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Agenda 9:00 Introduction and objectives – Pam Pickard/Carol Zimmerman 9:15 Review agenda – Ed Means 9:20 Introduction to scenario planning – Ed Means 9:40 Social responsibility concept exercise 10:15 Break 10:30 Introduction of scenarios 10:45 Scenario A: “Timing Energy Diversification” 11:30 Scenario B: “Continuity Reigns” 12:15 Lunch 12:45 Scenario C: “Balancing Act” 1:30 Scenario D: “Managing Expectations” 2:15 Break 2:30 Identification and discussion of common elements 3:30 Group discussion of next steps – H. Macre/G. Carpenter 4:00 Adjourn
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Social Responsibility
Exercise: What Does Social Responsibility Mean
to You?
Use sticky notes to capture and post your perspective
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Social Responsibility
For Purposes of Today’s Workshop Social
Responsibility is:
“Consideration of power generation
alternatives different than the least-cost
alternatives (status quo)”
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Agenda 9:00 Introduction and objectives – Pam Pickard/Carol Zimmerman 9:15 Review agenda – Ed Means 9:20 Introduction to scenario planning – Ed Means 9:40 Social responsibility concept exercise 10:15 Break 10:30 Introduction of scenarios 10:45 Scenario A: “Timing Energy Diversification” 11:30 Scenario B: “Continuity Reigns” 12:15 Lunch 12:45 Scenario C: “Balancing Act” 1:30 Scenario D: “Managing Expectations” 2:15 Break 2:30 Identification and discussion of common elements 3:30 Group discussion of next steps – H. Macre/G. Carpenter 4:00 Adjourn
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Agenda 9:00 Introduction and objectives – Pam Pickard/Carol Zimmerman 9:15 Review agenda – Ed Means 9:20 Introduction to scenario planning – Ed Means 9:40 Social responsibility concept exercise 10:15 Break 10:30 Introduction of scenarios 10:45 Scenario A: “Timing Energy Diversification” 11:30 Scenario B: “Continuity Reigns” 12:15 Lunch 12:45 Scenario C: “Balancing Act” 1:30 Scenario D: “Managing Expectations” 2:15 Break 2:30 Identification and discussion of common elements 3:30 Group discussion of next steps – H. Macre/G. Carpenter 4:00 Adjourn
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Scenario Planning Discussion Guidelines
Not trying to identify every scenario
We are not trying to debate content of scenarios
Not making decisions
Think long term - >10 yrs or the tendency is to extrapolate from where we are now
Think about CAP as a whole
Open discussion / Keep an open mind
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Four Possible Scenarios
Available
Yes
High
Low Available
No
Unavailable
Yes
High
Low Unavailable
No
NGS Willingness
to Pay CSR Scenario
Timing Energy Diversification
Continuity Reigns
Balancing Act
Managing Expectations
or
or
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Will
ingn
ess t
o pa
y
Availability of NGS
No
Yes
Available Unavailable
Timing Energy Diversification
Continuity Reigns
Balancing Act
Managing Expectations
Scenarios
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Agenda 9:00 Introduction and objectives – Pam Pickard/Carol Zimmerman 9:15 Review agenda – Ed Means 9:20 Introduction to scenario planning – Ed Means 9:40 Social responsibility concept exercise 10:15 Break 10:30 Introduction of scenarios 10:45 Scenario A: “Timing Energy Diversification” 11:30 Scenario B: “Continuity Reigns” 12:15 Lunch 12:45 Scenario C: “Balancing Act” 1:30 Scenario D: “Managing Expectations” 2:15 Break 2:30 Identification and discussion of common elements 3:30 Group discussion of next steps – H. Macre/G. Carpenter 4:00 Adjourn
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Scenario A: Timing Energy Diversification
Scenario Description The Navajo Generating Station remains available Economy is good Public increasingly views investments in sustainable
energy as a positive
Implications Signposts
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Agenda 9:00 Introduction and objectives – Pam Pickard/Carol Zimmerman 9:15 Review agenda – Ed Means 9:20 Introduction to scenario planning – Ed Means 9:40 Social responsibility concept exercise 10:15 Break 10:30 Introduction of scenarios 10:45 Scenario A: “Timing Energy Diversification” 11:30 Scenario B: “Continuity Reigns” 12:15 Lunch 12:45 Scenario C: “Balancing Act” 1:30 Scenario D: “Managing Expectations” 2:15 Break 2:30 Identification and discussion of common elements 3:30 Group discussion of next steps – H. Macre/G. Carpenter 4:00 Adjourn
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Scenario B: Continuity Reigns
Scenario Description The Navajo Generating Station is available Economy remains sluggish Population growth remains essentially flat Public trust in government remains near historic lows The public supports environmental sustainability but,
given the economy, is not willing to pay to diversify away from the Navajo Generating Station
Implications Signposts
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Agenda 9:00 Introduction and objectives – Pam Pickard/Carol Zimmerman 9:15 Review agenda – Ed Means 9:20 Introduction to scenario planning – Ed Means 9:40 Social responsibility concept exercise 10:15 Break 10:30 Introduction of scenarios 10:45 Scenario A: “Timing Energy Diversification” 11:30 Scenario B: “Continuity Reigns” 12:15 Lunch 12:45 Scenario C: “Balancing Act” 1:30 Scenario D: “Managing Expectations” 2:15 Break 2:30 Identification and discussion of common elements 3:30 Group discussion of next steps – H. Macre/G. Carpenter 4:00 Adjourn
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Agenda 9:00 Introduction and objectives – Pam Pickard/Carol Zimmerman 9:15 Review agenda – Ed Means 9:20 Introduction to scenario planning – Ed Means 9:40 Social responsibility concept exercise 10:15 Break 10:30 Introduction of scenarios 10:45 Scenario A: “Timing Energy Diversification” 11:30 Scenario B: “Continuity Reigns” 12:15 Lunch 12:45 Scenario C: “Balancing Act” 1:30 Scenario D: “Managing Expectations” 2:15 Break 2:30 Identification and discussion of common elements 3:30 Group discussion of next steps – H. Macre/G. Carpenter 4:00 Adjourn
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Scenario C: Balancing Act
Scenario Description The Navajo Generating Station is unavailable Economy is good Public trust in government is rising Quality of life issues in the CAP service area have
received a lot of attention in the media (traffic, air quality, climate change, water reliability, etc.)
The public is willing to pay to diversify away from the Navajo Generating Station
Implications Signposts
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Agenda 9:00 Introduction and objectives – Pam Pickard/Carol Zimmerman 9:15 Review agenda – Ed Means 9:20 Introduction to scenario planning – Ed Means 9:40 Social responsibility concept exercise 10:15 Break 10:30 Introduction of scenarios 10:45 Scenario A: “Timing Energy Diversification” 11:30 Scenario B: “Continuity Reigns” 12:15 Lunch 12:45 Scenario C: “Balancing Act” 1:30 Scenario D: “Managing Expectations” 2:15 Break 2:30 Identification and discussion of common elements 3:30 Group discussion of next steps – H. Macre/G. Carpenter 4:00 Adjourn
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Scenario D: Managing Expectations
Scenario Description The Navajo Generating Station is unavailable due to
regulatory action Population growth remains relatively flat Energy usage in the CAP service area is rising as
climate change drives higher cooling costs Economy remains sluggish The public is NOT willing to pay to diversify away from
the Navajo Generating Station Implications
Signposts
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Agenda 9:00 Introduction and objectives – Pam Pickard/Carol Zimmerman 9:15 Review agenda – Ed Means 9:20 Introduction to scenario planning – Ed Means 9:40 Social responsibility concept exercise 10:15 Break 10:30 Introduction of scenarios 10:45 Scenario A: “Timing Energy Diversification” 11:30 Scenario B: “Continuity Reigns” 12:15 Lunch 12:45 Scenario C: “Balancing Act” 1:30 Scenario D: “Managing Expectations” 2:15 Break 2:30 Identification and discussion of common elements 3:30 Group discussion of next steps – H. Macre/G. Carpenter 4:00 Adjourn
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Agenda 9:00 Introduction and objectives – Pam Pickard/Carol Zimmerman 9:15 Review agenda – Ed Means 9:20 Introduction to scenario planning – Ed Means 9:40 Social responsibility concept exercise 10:15 Break 10:30 Introduction of scenarios 10:45 Scenario A: “Timing Energy Diversification” 11:30 Scenario B: “Continuity Reigns” 12:15 Lunch 12:45 Scenario C: “Balancing Act” 1:30 Scenario D: “Managing Expectations” 2:15 Break 2:30 Identification and discussion of common elements 3:30 Group discussion of next steps – H. Macre/G. Carpenter 4:00 Adjourn
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Agenda 9:00 Introduction and objectives – Pam Pickard/Carol Zimmerman 9:15 Review agenda – Ed Means 9:20 Introduction to scenario planning – Ed Means 9:40 Social responsibility concept exercise 10:15 Break 10:30 Introduction of scenarios 10:45 Scenario A: “Timing Energy Diversification” 11:30 Scenario B: “Continuity Reigns” 12:15 Lunch 12:45 Scenario C: “Balancing Act” 1:30 Scenario D: “Managing Expectations” 2:15 Break 2:30 Identification and discussion of common elements 3:30 Group discussion of next steps – H. Macre/G. Carpenter 4:00 Adjourn
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Example Next Steps
Document results of the workshop (common elements, signposts, etc.)
Develop plan to address key findings? Generate periodic update on costs of different
generation options? Social responsibility policy development? Periodic review of where we are with respect to
signposts?
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Adjourn