Power Sector Report

Ed 1 2016

Capex and Markets $ Infrastructure and Utilities

A Complete Map of the Power Sector

Power Sector GTD Vol 4. Generation and T&D

Infrastructure

Vol 4. GTD provides information and analysis of the Infrastructure of the Genera-

tion and T&D sectors, with historical data and forecasts.

Installed generating capacity by energy source/technology

Transmission networks and lines

Distribution networks and lines

Demand for generating capacity and T&D lines

Voltage analysis

Special chapters of technical and infrastructure analysis

The Power Sector Reports encompass the entire spectrum of power generation,

transmission and distribution; utilities, merchant generators, industry, small captive

and domestic generators, and the growing segment of “hidden power” not included

in national statistics.

The Power Sector series consists of 9 volumes, providing modules of information,

so that you can access exactly what you want, no more no less.

Analysis of utilities

PS4 POWER SECTOR REPORT GTD - INFRASTRUCTURE

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

THE POWER SECTOR REPORT

THE STRUCTURE OF THIS REPORT

How this volume fits into the Power Sector Report series.

1. INTRODUCTION TO THE POWER SECTOR

The scale of the power sector is outlined as an introduction, in capacity and $ with commentary on

its composition by the constituent sectors - generation, transmission and distribution.

2. THE ELEMENTS OF AN ELECTRICAL NETWORK

The transmission and distribution networks transport and deliver electricity from generators to

consumers. To accomplish this they transform it up and down to different voltage levels, with

step-up and step-down transformers. In the T&D industry, power and distribution transformers

are probably the major single component of equipment, except for the cables through which

electricity is transmitted and distributed, and they are the most costly single item. Transformers

are needed at all stages in an electrical supply system when the voltage level changes.

3. UTILITY SECTORS

The 135,000 electricity, gas and water & waste utilities are shown regionally on a global map and

the 11,000 electrical utilities are analysed by region and major country, with a breakdown of

public/private ownership. A table summarises the electrical utility sector in every country.

4. OTHER UTILITY SECTORS, AS GENERATORS AND CONSUMERS

The other utilities are identified - oil, gas, water & waste, telecoms, railways – they are large

generators and consumers of electricity, and some have transmission and distribution networks.

5. INDUSTRIAL AND CAPTIVE GENERATION

Industry is a significant generator of power and an even larger consumer, drawing from the grid

more than it supplies in most but not all countries. Industry is an important owner of transmission

and distribution assets such as transformers. “Hidden power “, mostly private generators under 1

MW, is a segment attracting increasing attention. It has been poorly documented and has been

underestimated in the past but its scale is now being recognised.

6. DISTRIBUTED POWER

The status of distributed power is outlined together with captive power, cogeneration and “hidden

power”, together with analysis of the impact on the retail cost of electricity.

7. THE USE OF ELECTRICITY BY SECTOR

Use by end-sector, with further analysis by type of industrial use and purpose of use.

8. THE HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE POWER SECTOR

A brief history of the development of the electricity power systems from their earliest start to the

present day.

9. THE DEVELOPMENT OF INSTALLED GENERATING CAPACITY IN THE POWER SECTOR

The development of generating capacity is charted from 1900 to the present day and forecast to

2050. It is tabulated at six ten year intervals from 1980 to 2030 in the PDF report, with annual

figures from 1980 to 2020 provided in the Excel database. This analysis is provided globally,

regionally and for 184 countries.

10. INSTALLED GENERATING CAPACITY BY ENERGY SOURCE, 1990 to 2020

Installed capacity is analysed by energy source; coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro, wind, solar PV, solar

thermal, biomass, MSW & waste, geothermal and ocean/marine. It is tabulated globally and for 8

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regional totals at four 10 year intervals in the PDF - 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2020 – and in the Excel

database annually from 1990 to 2020.

11. ANNUAL DEMAND FOR GENERATING CAPACITY IN THE POWER SECTOR, ADDITIONS AND REPLACEMENT

Global installed capacity and annual demand is charted annually from 1900 to 2015 and forecast

to 2050. Demand is analysed by new and replacement installations globally, by regions and for 184

countries, in five year segments from 2016-2020 to 2031-2035. Demand is also shown with

replacement as a % of total demand to 2050.

12. TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION LINE LENGTHS BY COUNTRY

Growth of the transmission and distribution networks is charted globally from 1900 to 2015.

Installed transmission and distribution line lengths are tabulated at 10 year intervals from 1980 to

2030 in the PDF report and annually in the Excel database. This analysis is provided globally,

regionally and for 216 countries.

13. ANNUAL DEMAND FOR T&D LINES, ADDITIONS AND REPLACEMENT

Global installed line lengths and annual demand for T&D lines is charted annually from 1900 to

2015 and forecast to 2050. Demand is analysed by new and replacement installations globally, by

regions and for 216 countries, in five year segments from 2016-2020 to 2031-2035. Demand is also

shown with replacement as a % of total demand to 2050.

14. NETWORK VOLTAGES

The global network base for transmission is analysed by region in four voltage groups – 35-89 kV,

90-199 kV, 200-329 kV, ≥300 kV, and subsea. Distribution is analysed by region and four groups –

MV OH, MV UG, LV OH, LV UG and subsea. Transmission and distribution are not defined by

voltage but by function and there are considerable variations around the world as to the point of

hand-over. A table demonstrates the substantial differences in Europe. This chapter contains 141

tables analysing voltage levels for as many countries.

15. THE VALUE CHAIN – FROM MATERIALS TO CAPEX

The cost of any product can be measured at various stages, from being a piece of unworked metal,

to its installation in working order and finally as a share of capital expenditure. Different price

levels apply through the supply chain, and the point of interest in the chain depends on the

business to which the value is being applied. The report analyses the value chain at 6 levels, from

BOM (bill of materials) to capex, with all mark-ups included. In using the market information in this

and other reports it is essential to specify which point in the value chain is being used. Capex can

be 2½ times the factory gate price, over 3 times manufacturing cost and 5 times materials cost.

16. PRICE TRENDS AND FACTORS DRIVING PRICES

In recent years the prices of electrotechnical products have been volatile due to variations in many

factors which affect them. Price trends are reviewed with commentary on PPI - Producer Price

Index, industry trends, production capacity, and the manufacturing input cost composition.

17. LAND-BASED UNDERGROUND CABLES – HV, MV & LV

Insulated underground land cables are not the most profitable segment of the power cable market

nor the one with the highest long term growth prospects but together with bare conductors it has

the most stable demand. EHV is the most profitable segment reflecting increased profitability with

more advanced technology. There is steady and increasing demand for insulated MV and LV cable

in the utility sector, driven by growing utility transmission expansion, undergrounding due to

urbanisation. All voltage levels are used in the industrial sector, from HV in heavy industry such as

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steel manufacture and milling, down to a myriad of LV applications in the residential, commercial

and automotive sectors. This chapter contains charts of the incidence of underground insulated

cable use by voltage in major countries and examines drivers, high costs and the impact of

urbanisation.

18. THE SUBMARINE CABLE MARKET- OFFSHORE WIND POWER, OIL & GAS

Submarine cable is a premium growth market. The technical barriers to entry are relatively high

and order backlogs are solid. These cables also achieve margins of 15-20% EBITDA which are

significantly higher than the average for the cable industry. Over the last five years a number of

developments have created demand for submarine cable. The technology and market issues are

explored in this chapter.

19. ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY, SUPERCONDUCTORS

Superconductors are materials that have no resistance to the flow of electricity; they are one of

the last great frontiers of scientific discovery. Some materials, cooled below a material-specific

temperature called “critical temperature” (Tc) undergo a phase transition into the

superconducting state. Markets for superconducting wire are in many ways similar to early

descriptions of the market for transistors. Today, transistors are ubiquitous, and are used in

virtually every application that harnesses electricity. In a similar fashion, superconducting wire has

market applications that are virtually limitless. The fundamental value proposition of

superconducting wire is the elimination of electrical loss, along with its accompanying heat,

resulting in the efficient transmission of vast amounts of electricity using materials and equipment

that are a fraction of the size and weight required for conventional copper wire electrical cables

and equipment. The technology, development and market status are explored in this chapter.

20. N-1 STANDARD, N-2, 2N, REDUNDANCY AND REPLACEMENT

Redundancy is a crucial consideration in infrastructure design and has major implications for

market size calculations. The following factors are reviewed; the impact of network failure,

transformer failure, industrial reliability, network reliability, N-1 and the networks, contingency

planning for network failure and electricity distribution.

21. THE ENVIRONMENTAL EQUATION

Environmental emissions will be reduced with a combination of measures and policies instituted

by the power generation industry and industry in general. Renewables can deliver a saving in

carbon of 21%, CCS (carbon capture and storage) in both industry and the generating sector can

deliver one fifth (19%) of GHG reductions by 2050. The other reductions will be attributed to,

efficiency in end-use (12%), fuel efficiency (24%), switching of fuel for end-use (11%), power

generation efficiency and fuel saving (7%), and nuclear power (6%).

22. AQCS – AIR QUALITY CONTROL SYSTEMS

Emissions consist of two categories, GHGs or greenhouse gases, and air pollutants. This chapter

outlines the sources of emissions, supply side measures to reduce them, and end-of-pipe control

measures for the principal air pollutants SO2, NOx and PM, particulate matter. The development

and penetration of AQCS (air quality control systems) technologies for SO2, NOx and PM are

tabulated - FGD, SCR, LNB, ESP, fabric filters, HED - for the major emitting countries.

PS4 POWER SECTOR REPORT GTD - INFRASTRUCTURE

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23. CCS – CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE

The carbon cycle, climate change and greenhouse gases are outlined. The current status of carbon

capture and storage (CCS) and enhanced oil recovery (EOR) is outlined with an assessment of

progress in industry and the generating sector.

24. ELECTRIFICATION

The impact of increased electrification on future markets is described with its advantages in terms

of electrical goods and aspirations, which vary according to the sophistification of the electrical

market in a country. Factors driving the increase in numbers of electrical connections are assessed

with tables of electrification levels for every country, from 1950 to 2050.

25. CURRENTS, CIRCUITS AND PHASES

Currents - AC and DC, circuits, and an overview of infrastructure

METHODOLOGY

5

PS4 POWER SECTOR REPORT - GTD - INFRASTRUCTURE

TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................. 13

THE POWER SECTOR REPORT ...................................................................................................................... 31

THE STRUCTURE OF THIS REPORT ............................................................................................................... 32

1. INTRODUCTION TO THE POWER SECTOR ............................................................................................ 33

The scale of the power sector ............................................................................................................. 33

The participants in the Power Sector .................................................................................................. 34

2. THE ELEMENTS OF AN ELECTRICAL NETWORK .................................................................................... 36

3. UTILITY SECTORS ................................................................................................................................. 38

4. OTHER UTILITY SECTORS, AS GENERATORS AND CONSUMERS .......................................................... 48

5. INDUSTRIAL AND CAPTIVE GENERATION ............................................................................................ 49

6. DISTRIBUTED POWER .......................................................................................................................... 52

7. THE USE OF ELECTRICITY BY SECTOR ................................................................................................... 56

8. THE HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE POWER SECTOR ................................................................. 60

9. THE DEVELOPMENT OF INSTALLED GENERATING CAPACITY IN THE POWER SECTOR ....................... 67

10. INSTALLED GENERATING CAPACITY BY ENERGY SOURCE, 1990 to 2020 ............................................ 74

11. ANNUAL DEMAND FOR GENERATING CAPACITY, ADDITIONS AND REPLACEMENT .......................... 78

12. TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION LINE LENGTHS BY COUNTRY ..................................................... 92

13. ANNUAL DEMAND FOR T&D LINES, ADDITIONS AND REPLACEMENT ............................................. 105

14. NETWORK VOLTAGES ....................................................................................................................... 131

GLOBAL TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION VOLTAGES ................................................................. 131

EUROPE ............................................................................................................................................. 133

CIS ..................................................................................................................................................... 145

MIDDLE EAST .................................................................................................................................... 149

NORTH AFRICA .................................................................................................................................. 152

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA ...................................................................................................................... 154

ASIA PACIFIC ...................................................................................................................................... 162

NORTH AMERICA .............................................................................................................................. 168

LATIN AMERICA ................................................................................................................................. 169

15. THE VALUE CHAIN – FROM MATERIALS TO CAPEX ........................................................................... 174

The value chain at 6 levels ................................................................................................................. 174

16. PRICE TRENDS AND FACTORS DRIVING PRICES ................................................................................. 180

Price Trends ....................................................................................................................................... 180

PPI - Producer Price Index ................................................................................................................. 180

Industry.............................................................................................................................................. 181

Production capacity ........................................................................................................................... 181

Manufacturing input cost composition ............................................................................................. 182

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17. LAND-BASED UNDERGROUND CABLES – HV, MV & LV ..................................................................... 186

18. THE SUBMARINE CABLE MARKET- OFFSHORE WIND POWER, OIL & GAS ........................................ 191

19. ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY, SUPERCONDUCTORS .............................................................................. 199

20. N-1 STANDARD, N-2, 2N, REDUNDANCY AND REPLACEMENT .......................................................... 205

Network failure .................................................................................................................................. 205

Transformer failure ........................................................................................................................... 205

Industrial reliability ............................................................................................................................ 207

Network reliability ............................................................................................................................. 208

N-1 and the networks ........................................................................................................................ 208

Contingency planning for network failure ......................................................................................... 209

21. THE ENVIRONMENTAL EQUATION ................................................................................................... 213

22. AQCS – AIR QUALITY CONTROL SYSTEMS ......................................................................................... 215

GHGs, Greenhouse gases .................................................................................................................. 216

Air pollutants ..................................................................................................................................... 216

Sources of emissions ......................................................................................................................... 217

Air pollutants ..................................................................................................................................... 218

Supply side measures to reduce man made emisssions ................................................................... 218

Emission types and end-of-pipe control measures ........................................................................... 219

Particulate Matter ............................................................................................................................. 222

Heavy metals – lead, mercury, cadmium .......................................................................................... 222

The development and penetration of aqcs technology .................................................................... 222

23. CCS – CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE .......................................................................................... 227

The carbon cycle, climate change and greenhouse gases ................................................................. 227

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) – current status .......................................................................... 229

EOR, Enhanced oil recovery. ............................................................................................................. 231

24. ELECTRIFICATION ............................................................................................................................. 235

The impact of increased electrification on future markets ............................................................... 235

Electrical goods and aspirations: The household electrification wheel ............................................ 236

Factors driving the increase in numbers of electrical connections ................................................... 237

25. CURRENTS, CIRCUITS AND PHASES ................................................................................................... 248

Currents - AC and DC ......................................................................................................................... 248

Circuits ............................................................................................................................................... 249

Overview of infrastructure ................................................................................................................ 250

METHODOLOGY ......................................................................................................................................... 252

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FIGURES

Figure 1: The UK Electrical Power Transmission and Distribution System ................................................................... 37

Figure 2: The global utility landscape ........................................................................................................................... 38

Figure 3: Composition of the retail cost of electricity .................................................................................................. 54

Figure 4: Industry uses of different energy sources in the US ..................................................................................... 56

Figure 5: Energy use by type of industry in the US (All types of energy) ..................................................................... 57

Figure 6: % of total machine drive electricity used in manufacturing in the US .......................................................... 58

Figure 7: Machine drive electricity use as a percentage of total delivered energy use by each industry in the US .... 58

Figure 8: World generation capacity MW, transmission and distribution lines in circuit km, from 1900 to 2015 ...... 61

Figure 9: World transmission and distribution lines in circuit km, development from 1900 to 2015 ......................... 62

Figure 10: World generating capacity in GW, development from 1900 to 2050 ......................................................... 67

Figure 11: World generating capacity in GW, development by region from 1980 to 2030 ......................................... 68

Figure 12: Installed capacity by fuel in GW, 1990 to 2020 ........................................................................................... 74

Figure 13: Installed capacity and annual demand for generating capacity in GW, 1900 to 2050 ............................... 78

Figure 14: Cumulative new and replacement demand for generating capacity in GW, 1900 to 2050 ........................ 79

Figure 15: New and replacement demand for generating capacity in GW unstacked, 1900 to 2050 ......................... 80

Figure 16: Replacement capacity as a % of total annual demand 5 year totals, 2016-2050 ....................................... 81

Figure 17: Transmission line lengths for major countries, 1900 to 2015 ..................................................................... 92

Figure 18: Distribution line lengths for major countries, 1900 to 2015 ....................................................................... 92

Figure 19: Installed transmission lines and annual additions ‘000 km, 1900 to 2050 ............................................... 105

Figure 20: Installed distribution lines and annual additions ‘000 km, 1900 to 2050 ................................................. 105

Figure 21: Annual demand, new and replacement demand for transmission lines in ‘000 km, 1900 to 2050 ......... 107

Figure 22: New and replacement demand for distribution lines in ‘000 km, 1900 to 2050 ...................................... 107

Figure 15: Global transmission lines by voltage, km, 2014 ........................................................................................ 131

Figure 16: Global distribution lines by voltage, km, 2014 .......................................................................................... 132

Figure 17: Distribution voltages in Europe (EU 27) .................................................................................................... 133

Figure 24: Prices of copper and aluminium 1960-2014 ............................................................................................. 178

Figure 25: Commodity price Index 1996 to 2016 ....................................................................................................... 182

Figure 26: Industrial metals prices 2007 to 2016 ....................................................................................................... 183

Figure 27: Labour compensation cost, including direct pay, social insurance expenditures, and labour taxes . ...... 184

Figure 28: Labour costs including wages and salaries, social insurance and labour-related taxes ............................ 184

Figure 29: Minimum wages in China in yuan per month 1995 to 2012 ..................................................................... 185

Figure 30: Underground cable as a percent of the total network in European countries ......................................... 187

Figure 31: Underground cable as a percent of the total network in CIS countries .................................................... 188

Figure 32: Underground cable as a percent of the total network in MENA countries............................................... 188

Figure 33: Underground cable as a percent of the total network in Asia Pacific countries ....................................... 188

Figure 34: Underground cable as a percent of the total network in Pacific countries .............................................. 189

Figure 35: Percent of population in urban areas, 1960-2010 by region .................................................................... 190

Figure 36: Market shares of different offshore segments ......................................................................................... 192

Figure 37: Undersea communications cables linking the world ................................................................................ 197

Figure 38: A high voltage substation with four transformers, three active and one redundant ............................... 209

Figure 39: Possible reductions in GHG emissions by 2050 ......................................................................................... 213

Figure 40: Beijing after rain and on a day with smog ................................................................................................. 215

Figure 41: Sources of emissions ................................................................................................................................. 217

Figure 42: Countries responsible for emissions ......................................................................................................... 218

Figure 43: The carbon cycle and storage ................................................................................................................... 227

Figure 44: % of carbon emissions from heat and power generation, 2014 ............................................................... 228

Figure 45: % of carbon emission from the world coal-fired fleet, 2014..................................................................... 228

Figure 46: Actual and expected operation dates for large-scale CCS projects, by region and lifecycle stage. .......... 230

Figure 47: Technological learning rates of selected energy related technologies ..................................................... 232

Figure 48: Additions of electrified households between 2015 and 2050 by region .................................................. 235

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Figure 49: Countries with greatest population declines by 2050............................................................................... 236

Figure 50: The Household Electrification Wheel ........................................................................................................ 237

Figure 51: Population growth % in each decade by region ........................................................................................ 238

Figure 52: Average household size, World, 1900 to 2050 ......................................................................................... 238

Figure 53: World electrification - % of households with electricity, 1900-2050 ........................................................ 239

Figure 54: World electrification – Number of households with and without electricity, 1900-2050 ........................ 240

Figure 55: Share of people without electricity access for developing countries, 2008 ............................................. 240

Figure 56: Regional totals of electrified households 2010 to 2050 ............................................................................ 241

Figure 57: Selected major countries - % of households with electricity, 1900-2050 ................................................. 241

Figure 58: Single phase power ................................................................................................................................... 249

Figure 59: Three phase power ................................................................................................................................... 249

Figure 60: The composition of annual demand for capacity, new plus replacement ................................................ 253

Tables

Table 1: Ownership of assets in the power sector by owner type ............................................................................... 35

Table 2: The world’s electrical utility landscape .......................................................................................................... 43

Table 3: Infrastructure of utilities ................................................................................................................................ 48

Table 4: Indian utilities’ generating capacity 1947 -2015 by fuel ................................................................................. 49

Table 5: Indian captive power plant generating capacity 1947 -2015 by fuel ............................................................. 50

Table 6: Sale of diesel gensets in India by international manufacturers > 1 MW from 1990 to 2004 ......................... 50

Table 7: Installed generating capacity in MW, 1980 to 2030, Europe ......................................................................... 69

Table 8: Installed generating capacity in MW, 1980 to 2030, CIS ................................................................................ 70

Table 9: Installed generating capacity in MW, 1980 to 2030, MENA ........................................................................... 70

Table 10: Installed generating capacity in MW, 1980 to 2030, Sub-Saharan Africa .................................................... 71

Table 11: Installed generating capacity in MW, 1980 to 2030, Asia Pacific ................................................................. 72

Table 12: Installed generating capacity in MW, 1980 to 2030, the Americas .............................................................. 73

Table 13: Installed generating capacity MW by fuel type 1990 to 2020, World .......................................................... 75

Table 14: Installed generating capacity MW by fuel type 1990 to 2020, Europe ........................................................ 75

Table 15: Installed generating capacity MW by fuel type 1990 to 2020, CIS ............................................................... 75

Table 16: Installed generating capacity MW by fuel type 1990 to 2020, Middle East ................................................. 76

Table 17: Installed generating capacity MW by fuel type 1990 to 2020, North Africa ................................................ 76

Table 18: Installed generating capacity MW by fuel type 1990 to 2020, Sub-Saharan Africa ..................................... 76

Table 19: Installed generating capacity MW by fuel type 1990 to 2020, Asia Pacific .................................................. 77

Table 20: Installed generating capacity MW by fuel type 1990 to 2020, LAC .............................................................. 77

Table 21: Installed generating capacityMW by fuel type 1990 to 2020, North America ............................................ 77

Table 22: New and replacement demand for generating capacity, MW, 2016 to 2035 .............................................. 79

Table 23: Total demand for generating capacity, MW, 2016 to 2050 ......................................................................... 79

Table 24: New and replacement demand by country in MW, 2015-2030, Europe ..................................................... 82

Table 25: Total new and replacement demand in GW and % of replacement, 2015 to 2050, Europe ....................... 83

Table 26: New and replacement demand by country in MW, 2015-2030, CIS ............................................................ 84

Table 27: Total new and replacement demand in GW and % of replacement, 2015 to 2050, CIS .............................. 84

Table 28: New and replacement demand by country in MW, 2015-2030, MENA ....................................................... 85

Table 29: Total new and replacement demand in GW and % of replacement, 2015 to 2050, MENA ......................... 85

Table 30: New and replacement demand by country in MW, 2015-2030, Sub-Saharan Africa .................................. 86

Table 31: Total new and replacement demand in GW and % of replacement, 2015- 2050, Sub-Saharan Africa ........ 87

Table 32: New and replacement demand by country in MW, 2015-2030, Asia Pacific ............................................... 88

Table 33: Total new and replacement demand in GW and % of replacement, 2015- 2050, Asia Pacific .................... 89

Table 34: New and replacement demand by country in MW, 2015-2030, Americas .................................................. 90

Table 35: Total new and replacement demand in GW and % of replacement, 2015-2050, Americas ........................ 91

Table 36: Transmission line lengths in Ckm, 1980-2030, Europe ................................................................................. 93

Table 37: Distribution line lengths in Ckm, 1980-2030, Europe ................................................................................... 94

9

Table 38: Transmission line lengths in Ckm, 1980-2030, CIS ....................................................................................... 95

Table 39: Distribution line lengths in Ckm, 1980-2030, CIS ......................................................................................... 95

Table 40: Transmission line lengths in Ckm, 1980-2030, MENA .................................................................................. 96

Table 41: Distribution line lengths in Ckm, 1980-2030, MENA .................................................................................... 96

Table 42: Transmission line lengths in Ckm, 1980-2030, Sub-Saharan Africa .............................................................. 97

Table 43: Distribution line lengths in Ckm, 1980-2030, Sub-Saharan Africa ................................................................ 98

Table 44: Transmission line lengths in Ckm, 1980-2030, Asia...................................................................................... 99

Table 45: Distribution line lengths in Ckm, 1980-2030, Asia...................................................................................... 100

Table 46: Transmission line lengths in Ckm, 1980-2030, Pacific ................................................................................ 101

Table 47: Distribution line lengths in Ckm, 1980-2030, Pacific .................................................................................. 101

Table 48: Transmission line lengths in Ckm, 1980-2030, North America................................................................... 102

Table 49: Distribution line lengths in Ckm, 1980-2030, North America ..................................................................... 102

Table 50: Transmission line lengths in Ckm, 1980-2030, Latin America .................................................................... 103

Table 51: Distribution line lengths in Ckm, 1980-2030, Latin America ...................................................................... 104

Table 52: New and replacement demand for transmission lines in Ckm, 2016 to 2035, World ................................ 106

Table 53: Demand for transmission lines in Ckm, 2016 to 2050, World .................................................................... 106

Table 54: New and replacement demand for distribution lines in Ckm, 2016 to 2035, World ................................. 106

Table 55: Demand for distribution lines in Ckm, 2016 to 2050, World ...................................................................... 106

Table 56: New and replacement demand for transmission lines by country in km, 2015-30, Europe ...................... 108

Table 57: New and replacement demand for transmission lines by country in km and % of rep, 2015-50, Europe . 109

Table 58: New and replacement demand for distribution lines by country in km, 2015-30, Europe ........................ 110

Table 59: New and replacement demand for distribution lines by country in km and % of rep, 2015-50, Europe ... 111

Table 60: New and replacement demand for transmission lines by country in km, 2015-2030, CIS ......................... 112

Table 61: New and replacement demand for transmission lines by country in km and % of rep, 2015-50, CIS ....... 112

Table 62: New and replacement demand for distribution lines by country in km, 2015-2030, CIS .......................... 113

Table 63: New and replacement demand for distribution lines by country in km and % of rep, 2015-50, CIS ......... 113

Table 64: New and replacement demand for transmission lines by country in km, 2015-30, MENA ....................... 114

Table 65: New and replacement demand for transmission lines by country in km and % of rep, 2015-50, MENA .. 114

Table 66: New and replacement demand for distribution lines by country in km, 2015-30, MENA ......................... 115

Table 67: New and replacement demand for distribution lines by country in km and % of rep, 2015-50, MENA .... 115

Table 68: New and replacement demand for transmission lines by country in km, 2015-30, S-S Africa .................. 116

Table 69: New and replacement demand for transmission lines by country in km and % rep, 2015-50, S-S Africa . 117

Table 70: New and replacement demand for distribution lines by country in km, 2015-30, S-S Africa .................... 118

Table 71: New and replacement demand for distribution lines by country in km and % rep, 2015-50, S-S Africa ... 119

Table 72: New and replacement demand for transmission lines by country in km, 2015-2030, Asia ....................... 120

Table 73: New and replacement demand for transmission lines by country in km and % of rep, 2015-50, Asia ...... 121

Table 74: New and replacement demand for distribution lines by country in km, 2015-2030, Asia ......................... 122

Table 75: New and replacement demand for distribution lines by country in km and % of rep, 2015-50, Asia ....... 123

Table 76: New and replacement demand for transmission lines by country in km, 2015-30, Pacific ....................... 124

Table 77: New and replacement demand for transmission lines by country in km and % of rep, 2015-50, Pacific .. 124

Table 78: New and replacement demand for distribution lines by country in km, 2015-30, Pacific ......................... 125

Table 79: New and replacement demand for distribution lines by country in km and % of rep, 2015-50, Pacific .... 125

Table 80: New and replacement demand for transmission lines by country in km, 2015-30, North America .......... 126

Table 81: New and replacement demand for transmission lines by country in km and % of rep, 2015-50, NAM .... 126

Table 82: New and replacement demand for distribution lines by country in km, 2015-30, NAM ........................... 126

Table 83: New and replacement demand for distribution lines by country in km and % of rep, 2015-50, NAM ...... 126

Table 84: New and replacement demand for transmission lines by country in km, 2015-30, LAC............................ 127

Table 85: New and replacement demand for transmission lines by country in km and % of rep, 2015-50, LAC ...... 128

Table 86: New and replacement demand for distribution lines by country in km, 2015-30, Americas..................... 129

Table 87: New and replacement demand for distribution lines by country in km and % of rep, 2015-50, Americas 130

Table 88: Global transmission lines by voltage, km, 2014 ......................................................................................... 131

Table 89: Global distribution lines by voltage, km, 2014 ........................................................................................... 132

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Table 90: Albania transmission and distribution ........................................................................................................134

Table 91: Austria transmission and distribution .........................................................................................................134

Table 92: Baltics transmission and distribution ..........................................................................................................135

Table 93: Belgium transmission and distribution .......................................................................................................135

Table 94: Bosnia & Herzegovina transmission and distribution .................................................................................135

Table 95: Bulgaria transmission and distribution .......................................................................................................136

Table 96: Croatia transmission and distribution.........................................................................................................136

Table 97: Cyprus transmission and distribution .........................................................................................................136

Table 98: Czech Republic transmission and distribution ............................................................................................137

Table 99: Denmark transmission and distribution .....................................................................................................137

Table 100: Finland transmission and distribution ......................................................................................................137

Table 101: France transmission and distribution .......................................................................................................138

Table 102: Germany transmission and distribution ...................................................................................................138

Table 103: Greece transmission and distribution .......................................................................................................138

Table 104: Hungary transmission and distribution .....................................................................................................138

Table 105: Iceland transmission and distribution.......................................................................................................139

Table 106: Ireland transmission and distribution .......................................................................................................139

Table 107: Italy transmission and distribution ...........................................................................................................139

Table 108: Luxembourg transmission and distribution ..............................................................................................140

Table 109: Macedonia transmission and distribution ................................................................................................140

Table 110: Malta transmission and distribution .........................................................................................................140

Table 111: Netherlands transmission and distribution ..............................................................................................141

Table 112: Norway transmission and distribution ......................................................................................................141

Table 113: Poland transmission and distribution .......................................................................................................141

Table 114: Portugal transmission and distribution.....................................................................................................142

Table 115: Romania transmission and distribution ....................................................................................................142

Table 116: Serbia transmission and distribution ........................................................................................................142

Table 117: Slovakia transmission and distribution .....................................................................................................143

Table 118: Slovenia transmission and distribution .....................................................................................................143

Table 119: Spain transmission and distribution .........................................................................................................143

Table 120: Sweden transmission and distribution .....................................................................................................143

Table 121: Switzerland transmission and distribution ...............................................................................................144

Table 122: Turkey transmission and distribution .......................................................................................................144

Table 123: United Kingdom transmission and distribution ........................................................................................144

Table 124: Armenia transmission and distribution ....................................................................................................145

Table 125: Azerbaijan transmission and distribution .................................................................................................145

Table 126: Belarus transmission and distribution ......................................................................................................145

Table 127: Georgia transmission and distribution......................................................................................................145

Table 128: Kazakhstan transmission and distribution ................................................................................................146

Table 129: Kyrgyzstan transmission and distribution .................................................................................................146

Table 130: Moldova transmission and distribution ....................................................................................................146

Table 131: Russia transmission and distribution ........................................................................................................147

Table 132: Tajikistan transmission and distribution ...................................................................................................147

Table 133: Turkmenistan transmission and distribution ............................................................................................147

Table 134: Ukraine transmission and distribution ......................................................................................................148

Table 135: Uzbekistan transmission and distribution ................................................................................................148

Table 136: Bahrain transmission and distribution ......................................................................................................149

Table 137: Iran transmission and distribution ............................................................................................................149

Table 138: Iraq transmission ......................................................................................................................................149

Table 139: Israel transmission and distribution .........................................................................................................149

Table 140: Jordan transmission and distribution .......................................................................................................150

Table 141: Kuwait transmission and distribution .......................................................................................................150

11

Table 142: Lebanon transmission ...............................................................................................................................150

Table 143: Oman: transmission ..................................................................................................................................150

Table 144: Qatar transmission ....................................................................................................................................151

Table 145: Saudi Arabia transmission and distribution ..............................................................................................151

Table 146: Syria transmission and distribution ..........................................................................................................151

Table 147: United Arab Republic transmission ..........................................................................................................151

Table 148: Yemen transmission and distribution .......................................................................................................151

Table 149: Algeria transmission and distribution .......................................................................................................152

Table 150: Egypt transmission and distribution .........................................................................................................152

Table 151: Libya transmission and distribution ..........................................................................................................152

Table 152: Morocco transmission and distribution ....................................................................................................152

Table 153: Sudan transmission and distribution ........................................................................................................153

Table 154: Tunisia transmission and distribution .......................................................................................................153

Table 155: Angola transmission ..................................................................................................................................154

Table 156: Benin transmission and distribution .........................................................................................................154

Table 157: Burkina Faso transmission and distribution ..............................................................................................154

Table 158: Cameroon transmission and distribution .................................................................................................154

Table 159: Central African Republic transmission and distribution ...........................................................................155

Table 160: Cote d’Ivoire transmission and distribution..............................................................................................155

Table 161: Djibouti transmission and distribution .....................................................................................................155

Table 162Table 163: Ethiopia transmission and distribution .....................................................................................155

Table 164: The Gambia transmission and distribution ...............................................................................................155

Table 165: Ghana transmission and distribution ........................................................................................................156

Table 166: Guinea Bissau transmission and distribution ............................................................................................156

Table 167: Guinea Equatorial transmission ................................................................................................................156

Table 168: Kenya transmission and distribution ........................................................................................................156

Table 169: Lesotho transmission and distribution .....................................................................................................157

Table 170: Liberia transmission and distribution .......................................................................................................157

Table 171: Madagascar transmission and distribution ...............................................................................................157

Table 172: Malawi transmission .................................................................................................................................157

Table 173: Mauritius transmission and distribution ...................................................................................................157

Table 174: Mozambique transmission and distribution .............................................................................................158

Table 175Table 176: Namibia transmission and distribution .....................................................................................158

Table 177: Nigeria transmission and distribution .......................................................................................................158

Table 178: Rwanda transmission ................................................................................................................................158

Table 179: Senegal transmission and distribution ......................................................................................................159

Table 180: Seychelles transmission ............................................................................................................................159

Table 181: South Africa transmission and distribution ..............................................................................................159

Table 182: Tanzania transmission ..............................................................................................................................160

Table 183: Togo distribution.......................................................................................................................................160

Table 184: Uganda transmission and distribution ......................................................................................................160

Table 185: Zambia transmission and distribution ......................................................................................................160

Table 186: Zimbabwe transmission and distribution .................................................................................................161

Table 187: Afghanistan transmission and distribution ...............................................................................................162

Table 188: Bangladesh transmission and distribution ................................................................................................162

Table 189: Bhutan transmission and distribution.......................................................................................................162

Table 190: Cambodia transmission and distribution ..................................................................................................162

Table 191: China transmission and distribution .........................................................................................................163

Table 192: India transmission and distribution ..........................................................................................................163

Table 193: Indonesia transmission and distribution ..................................................................................................163

Table 194: Japan transmission and distribution .........................................................................................................164

Table 195: South Korea transmission and distribution ..............................................................................................164

12

Table 196: Laos transmission and distribution ........................................................................................................... 164

Table 197: Malaysia transmission and distribution .................................................................................................... 165

Table 198: Maldives transmission and distribution ................................................................................................... 165

Table 199: Myanmar transmission and distribution .................................................................................................. 165

Table 200: Nepal Transmission................................................................................................................................... 165

Table 201: Pakistan transmission and distribution .................................................................................................... 166

Table 202: Philippines transmission and distribution ................................................................................................ 166

Table 203: Sri Lanka transmission and distribution .................................................................................................... 166

Table 204: Singapore transmission and distribution .................................................................................................. 166

Table 205: Taiwan transmission and distribution ...................................................................................................... 167

Table 206: Thailand transmission and distribution .................................................................................................... 167

Table 207: Vietnam transmission and distribution .................................................................................................... 167

Table 208: United States transmission and distribution ............................................................................................ 168

Table 209: Canada transmission................................................................................................................................. 168

Table 210: Mexico transmission and distribution ...................................................................................................... 168

Table 211: Antigua transmission and distribution...................................................................................................... 169

Table 212:Argentina transmission and distribution ................................................................................................... 169

Table 213: Bahamas transmission and distribution ................................................................................................... 169

Table 214: Bolivia transmission .................................................................................................................................. 169

Table 215: Brazil transmission and distribution ......................................................................................................... 170

Table 216: Cayman Islands distribution ..................................................................................................................... 170

Table 217: Chile transmission ..................................................................................................................................... 170

Table 218: Columbia transmission ............................................................................................................................. 170

Table 219: Costa Rica transmission and distribution ................................................................................................. 171

Table 220: Dominican Republic transmission ............................................................................................................ 171

Table 221: Ecuador transmission ............................................................................................................................... 171

Table 222: El Salvador transmission and distribution ................................................................................................ 171

Table 223: Guatemala transmission ........................................................................................................................... 171

Table 224: Jamaica transmission and distribution ..................................................................................................... 172

Table 225: Nicaragua transmission and distribution .................................................................................................. 172

Table 226: Panama transmission and distribution ..................................................................................................... 172

Table 227: Paraguay transmission and distribution ................................................................................................... 172

Table 228: Peru transmission ..................................................................................................................................... 173

Table 229: Puerto Rico transmission and distribution ............................................................................................... 173

Table 230: Uruguay transmission ............................................................................................................................... 173

Table 231: Venezuela transmission ............................................................................................................................ 173

Table 232: Costs and mark-up from Bill of Materials to Capex .................................................................................. 175

Table 233: Manufacturers of subsea power cable and communications cable ......................................................... 196

Table 234: Installed superconductors ........................................................................................................................ 202

Table 235: Superconductor manufacturers ............................................................................................................... 204

Table 236: Reductions in emissions by the main AQCS technologies ........................................................................ 220

Table 237: Penetration of end-of-pipe AQCS measures............................................................................................. 226

Table 238: The global coal-fired generating fleet 2015 .............................................................................................. 233

Table 239: Levelised Cost of Electricity for New-Build Power Plants with and without CCS ..................................... 234

Table 240: Electrification in North America - % of households with access to electricity, 1950 to 2050 .................. 242

Table 241: Electrification in Europe - % of households with access to electricity, 1950 to 2050 .............................. 242

Table 242: Electrification in the CIS - % of households with access to electricity, 1950 to 2050 ............................... 243

Table 243: Electrification in MENA - % of households with access to electricity, 1950 to 2050 ................................ 243

Table 244: Electrification in S-S Africa - % of households with access to electricity, 1950 to 2050 ........................... 244

Table 245: Electrification in Asia - % of households with access to electricity, 1950 to 2050 ................................... 245

Table 246: Electrification in the Pacific - % of households with access to electricity, 1950 to 2050 ......................... 246

Table 247: Electrification in Latin America - % of households with access to electricity, 1950 to 2050 .................... 247

13

Table 248: Products and technologies used in generating plants ............................................................................. 254

Table 249: Products and technologies used in transmission ..................................................................................... 255

Table 250: Products and technologies used in distribution ....................................................................................... 255

14

PS 4 - SAMPLE PAGES

Table 1: Installed generating capacity in MW, 1980 to 2030, Asia Pacific

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Afghanistan

Australia

Bangladesh

Bhutan

Brunei

Cambodia

Table 2: New and replacement demand for generating capacity, MW, 2016 to 2035

New Replacement

2016-20 2021-25 2026-30 2031-35 2016-20 2021-25 2026-30 2031-35

World

Table 3: Total demand for generating capacity, MW, 2016 to 2050

Total demand % replacement

2016-20 2021-25 2026-30 2031-35 2036-40 2041-45 2046-50 2016-20 2021-25 2026-30 2031-35 2036-40 2041-45 2046-50

World

Table 4: Installed generating capacity MW by fuel type 1990 to 2020, World

World 1990 2000 2010 2020 1990 2000 2010 2020

Coal

Oil

Gas

Multi-fuel

Hydro

Nuclear

Wind

Solar Thermal

Solar PV

Biomass

MSW & other waste

Geothermal

Ocean/tidal

Other

Total

There are just over XXX electricity, gas and water & waste utilities in the world; XXX electricity, XXX gas

and XXX water & waste. With numbers like these the range in size is huge, especially for water. The XXX

electrical utilities are the core of the power sector, the XXX gas and water & waste utilities consume a lot

of energy and except for smallest water distributors they mostly generate it themselves. The XXX electrical

15

utilities are the primary constituents of the power sector, the XXX gas and water & waste utilities are

secondary. The utilities have developed in diverse ways in the regions of the world.

The patterns of ownership vary for the three segments of the industry. Generation is almost evenly split

between state and private ownership, with 47% of utilities in state-ownership and 44% private, but all

non-utility participants being private owners. Transmission and to a lesser degree distribution are more

likely to be state-controlled, 75% for transmission and 59% for distribution. Private ownership of these

segments is predominant in North America and Japan, about evenly split in Europe for transmission and

about two thirds private and distribution. The dominance of state-ownership is because transmission and

distribution are natural monopolies………………..

Hidden power < 1 MW

This has so far has been referring to the captive plants above 1 MW. Information about captive plants

below 1 MW is not so readily available in India, sometime described as ‘hidden’ capacity. One such source

is the information gathered from the manufacturers of small captive plants. However, such an estimate

based on data provided by the manufacturers is expected to have a downward bias as it neither takes into

account the contribution by local manufacturers nor does it account for the market for used capacities.

The total cumulative capacity of such plants was about 24 GW in 2004, around 16% of India’s generating

capacity, and most of these small plants were liquid fuel based. 85% of the total captive capacity additions

is expected to be coal-based. In 2015 a total of 554,000 diesel engines of all sizes was produced in India. A

recent estimate was published in the press in India in 2016 that annual sales of diesel gensets < 1 MW total

5,000 to 8,000 MW. If this figure is accurate ……………………………

16

……………………………………..Distribution has followed a similar path, with one difference that Europe has

declined less than North America, because of its higher population. The shares in 2015 were for Europe

18% and North America 16%, CIS 7%, while Asia Pacific had risen to 44%.

Figure 1: Transmission line lengths for major countries, 1900 to 2015

The following series of tables plot the progress of every country from 1980 to the present day and give

pr

17

Table 5: New and replacement demand for transmission lines in 5 year segments by country in km,

2015 to 2030, CIS

18

1. THE VALUE CHAIN – FROM MATERIALS TO CAPEX

The cost of any product such as cable, transformers or circuit breakers can be measured in a number of

ways, from being a piece of unworked metal, to its final installation in working order and finally as a

constituent of capital expenditure. Different price levels are important in this supply chain, and the point

of interest in the chain depends on the business to which the value is being applied. The value chain starts

with the input of raw materials, such as cold rolled steel, GOES, copper, aluminium etc. These inputs

typically constitute from 60-80% of the manufacturing cost of a finished product.

The value chain at 6 levels

1. BOM, bill of materials - Metal producers and refiners are concerned about the prices they can get for

their output in its basic form, ingots, rods, plates etc. For the equipment manufacturers this price

translates into the BOM (bill of materials) as a cost of production.

2. Manufactured cost - Adding the cost of fabricating the materials into finished products produces the

manufactured cost.

3. Factory gate price (MSP) - The addition of non-manufacturing costs such as sales and finance costs

brings it up to the factory gate price or manufacturer’s selling price. This does not include any transport

cost. (Note: factory gate price is sometimes quoted with manufacturer’s profit and sometimes not.)

4. Buyer’s price (equivalent to RSP) - Products such as electrical equipment is almost always sold with a

multi-channel strategy. Power and distribution transformers are a good example; there are usually

two sales channels. Power and large distribution transformers are bespoke items, each one

manufactured to a unique design for a unique purpose. They are ordered direct from manufacturers

and the buyer’s price is the factory gate price. Smaller distribution transformers are commodity items

and are stocked by distributors, who purchase them from the manufacturers, so the end-user’s

purchase price includes the distributor’s mark-up and profit, typically 30-35% of MSP. This stage may

also include an electrical contractor’s mark-up. Some utilities and industries keep these costs in-house

but the aging of skilled work forces is increasing leading to outsourcing as much as possible.

5. Installed equipment cost - The final stage in the value chain of the product takes in the cost of

transport and installation, currently around 25%-30%. It is the cost to the end-user of having an item

of equipment installed in working order.

6. Capex – However, the end-user has further costs which are not directly related to the equipment being

installed although the equipment cannot function without these activities;

Civil and structural costs – site preparation, drainage, construction of buildings on the site etc;

Project indirect costs – engineering, distribution labour and materials, scaffolding, costruction

management etc;

Owner’s cost - these included planning, feasibility and engineering studies, legal feees, permits,

insurance costs, property taxes etc:

The BOM affects each stage in the value chain, because everything starts with it but there are additions in

the value chain which are not dependent on the cost of materials. The manufacturing process is

independent of the cost of the materials, but the next sage in the value chain, the manufactured cost is

highly dependent on the cost of materials. In Stage 3, the manufacturer’s selling price, the non-

manufacturing costs such as sales and administration costs are not dependent on the cost of materials. In

stage 4, where a distributor adds a mark-up it is customarily as a % of the manufacturer’s selling price,

although not all of the costs of distribution will escalate with the price of the product. Finance,

warehousing and insurance costs will rise as the cost of the product increases but other distributor’s costs

19

The development and penetration of AQCS technology

Europe and the United States

FGD technology originated in the UK and Germany but the USA and Japan became the main developer sin

the 1970s. The air emission limits have over the years been tightened both in Europe and in North

America and in Japan. In the last decade China has enacted some of the most rigorous regulations in the

world. The US and Japan were the main markets for which the FGD technology was deployed and where

it reached a degree of maturity. The first experimental FGD units on a power plant were set up in the UK

in 1929-1933 in London, and the first full-scale unit commenced operation in 1933 at Battersea “A” power

station. The technology used was based on scrubbing with river water from the Thames, with added chalk

or alkaline waste sludge from water- softening process. A few small-scale FGD units were built in the US

before the 1960s, including an ammonia process as early as 1934. In the 1960s, concerns about the health

effects of sulphur emissions from power plants and other industrial processes……………………..

Table 6: Penetration of end-of-pipe AQCS measures

USA Germany China Japan Korea

FGD

% of coal plants

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

Nox

SCR/SNCR

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

LNB (Nox)

2005

2010

2015

2020

LNB + SCR

2005

2010

2015

2020

% of pulverised coal plants

ESP

2005

2010

2015

2020

Fabric filters/Baghouse

2005

2010

2015

20

14. LAND-BASED UNDERGROUND CABLES – HV, MV & LV

Overview

Insulated underground land cables are not the most profitable segment of the power cable market nor

the one with the highest long term growth prospects but together with bare conductors it has the most

stable demand. EHV is the most profitable segment reflecting increased profitability with more advanced

technology. There is steady and increasing demand for insulated MV and LV cable in the utility sector,

driven by growing utility transmission expansion, undergrounding due to urbanisation, which is a global

phenomenon, and an increasing desire to protect the countryside visually. All voltage levels are used in

the industrial sector, from HV in heavy industry such as steel manufacture and milling, down to a myriad

of LV applications in the residential, commercial and automotive sectors.

Undergound cabling in the utility sector

Bare conductor is the most widely used conductor in the transmission and distribution infrastructure but

there is growing use of insulated cable. In the utility sector almost all HV and MV insulated cable is for

underground transmission and sub-transmission. Insulated cable is more widely used in the LV segment in

urban environments. In the LV segment, while most overhead wires are bare overhead conductors, there

is increased use of “ABC” aerial bundled insulated overhead cables in distribution networks, especially in

…………………………

orested areas.

21