Power and Values in a Changing Asia: Debating Australia's Strategic Future

download Power and Values in a Changing Asia: Debating Australia's Strategic Future

of 14

Transcript of Power and Values in a Changing Asia: Debating Australia's Strategic Future

  • 8/4/2019 Power and Values in a Changing Asia: Debating Australia's Strategic Future

    1/14

    Democratic asia anD the West PaPer series 2011

    PoWer anD Values in a changing asiaDb a s F

    anDreW shearer

  • 8/4/2019 Power and Values in a Changing Asia: Debating Australia's Strategic Future

    2/14

    2011 Te German Marshall Fund o the United States. All rights reserved.

    No part o this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any orm or by any means without permission in writing

    rom the German Marshall Fund o the United States (GMF). Please direct inquiries to:

    Te German Marshall Fund o the United States

    1744 R Street, NW

    Washington, DC 20009

    1 202 683 2650

    F 1 202 265 1662

    E [email protected]

    Tis publication can be downloaded or ree at www.gmus.org/publications/index.cm. Limited print

    copies are also available. o request a copy, send an e-mail to [email protected].

    gmF Pp s

    Te GMF Paper Series presents research on a variety o transatlantic topics by sta, ellows, and partners o the German

    Marshall Fund o the United States. Te views expressed here are those o the author and do not necessarily represent the

    views o GMF. Comments rom readers are welcome; reply to the mailing address above or by e-mail to [email protected].

    ab gmFTe German Marshall Fund o the United States (GMF) is a non-partisan American public policy and grantmaking institu-

    tion dedicated to promoting better understanding and cooperation between North America and Europe on transatlantic

    and global issues.

    GMF does this by supporting individuals and institutions working in the transatlantic sphere, by convening leaders and

    members o the policy and business communities, by contributing research and analysis on transatlantic topics, and by

    providing exchange opportunities to oster renewed commitment to the transatlantic relationship. In addition, GMF

    supports a number o initiatives to strengthen democracies.

    Founded in 1972 through a gi rom Germany as a permanent memorial to Marshall Plan assistance, GMF maintains a

    strong presence on both sides o the Atlantic. In addition to its headquarters in Washington, DC, GMF has seven oces

    in Europe: Berlin, Paris, Brussels, Belgrade, Ankara, Bucharest, and Warsaw. GMF also has smaller representations in

    Bratislava, urin, and Stockholm.

    gmF a PGMFs Asia Program addresses the implications o Asias rise or the West - in particular, how Asias resurgence will impact

    the oreign policy, economic, and domestic challenges and choices acing the transatlantic allies - through a combination

    o convening, writing, strategic grants, study tours, ellowships, partnerships with other GMF programs, and partnerships

    with other institutions. Led by Senior Fellow or Asia Daniel wining and ransatlantic Fellow Andrew Small, the Programs

    initiatives include the Stockholm China Forum and India Forum, seminars and other activities in Japan, Asia-related panels

    at GMFs fagship events at Brussels and Haliax, and paper series on transatlantic approaches to wider Asia and on deep-

    ening cooperation between democratic Asia and the West.

    ab l i

    Te Legatum Institute (LI) is an independent non-partisan public policy group based in London. LIs research, publications,

    and programmes advance ideas and policies in support o ree and prosperous societies around the world. Te Legatum

    Institute publishes Te Legatum Prosperity Index, the worlds only global assessment o wealth and wellbeing.

    Cover photo: Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao (L) and Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard walk past a guard o honor

    during a welcoming ceremony held at the Great Hall o the People in Beijing, 26 April 2011.Photo Diego Azubel/epa/Corbis.

  • 8/4/2019 Power and Values in a Changing Asia: Debating Australia's Strategic Future

    3/14

    Power and Values in a Changing Asia:Debating Australias Strategic Future

    Democratic Asia and The West Paper Series

    September 2011

    A S

    A S Ly I I Py Syy,A. H vy v y v P M J H; y v D M R H; A Ey W, DC. H - v A D F A T, D P M C, O N A.

    A v y Ly I. S A S, U W: T U.S. A- A N E S Uy, Ly I I Py, Syy, A .

  • 8/4/2019 Power and Values in a Changing Asia: Debating Australia's Strategic Future

    4/14

    Power and Values in a Changing Asia: Debating Australias Strategic Future 1

    This Pax Americana

    created the conditifor the Asian econo

    miracle, seeing off

    external threat pos

    by the Soviet Union

    tamping down regio

    rivalries, managing

    the reintegration of

    Japan, and freeing

    the countries of Ea

    Asia to allocate the

    national resources development rathe

    than to costly spen

    on defense. The res

    were spectacular.

    A ff f v W m

    m

    U S, ,

    m C, . T y

    f f A-U.S.

    f fm f C yz

    m pm f A

    , v, p . I

    xm A xmp m

    pm, m, y

    ym y

    W m y k f v--v pp

    v- .

    Sixty Years of Alliance and Accomplishment

    A, N Z, U S

    ANZUS Ty 60 y . T y

    v A m-

    m. A

    Jp, f 1945,

    fm jpz

    p A A y. T C

    W , N K, ky C Sv U, j v

    S K.

    Ty A f

    . T

    v m mk py

    m q. I mpv A,

    U S, p

    y f

    v f y p p m

    k f A-Pf y k. T

    f ppy p fv fy A f.

    A jy v f v

    y, p y Am

    p. S B f My 1942,

    U.S. Nvy jy f

    W Pf. R f ff-py U.S. my f, ,

    , Pax Americana

    f A m m,

    ff x p y Sv U,

    mp v, m

    f Jp, f

    f E A

    vpm y p

    f.

    T p: y

    p; f m f pp f

    f pvy f mv A

    m ; -

    vm; f m

    , Jp, S K,

    T, I.

    F p- A, py

    . A F Uvy Mm Ck

    p , f S W

    W , v A p

    f

    fm my f- 1957

    Cmm Am Jp. T pv

    y f m pp my

    y m A my

    p m A. F fm

    y A, m

    ky f A p

    y Jp, S K

    , py, I I .

    Asias Shifting Strategic Landscape

    N, v f f m v f

    y U S

    m pmy A . T

    m U S ,

    C f my k

    m v . P ,

    , -p

    ympm f C

  • 8/4/2019 Power and Values in a Changing Asia: Debating Australia's Strategic Future

    5/14

    The German Marshall Fund of the United States2

    . A y U.S.

    x C . N,

    q C I

    q.

    C y q

    U.S.

    A , y

    y -

    x, , .

    T

    . W A

    9 D W P (

    F 3 v

    q, y

    ). T vy -

    y

    v v

    A y . P

    v , y k

    C y

    A y

    .

    Mv, y,

    v , y,

    W . Iy

    ,

    v , -

    .

    Australian Public Opinion: A Study in Sensibility

    T v A

    . P

    y v v,

    y. A

    y. B Ly I

    , 7

    A v vy y,

    A , , y

    . I v y

    A

    , k

    .

    T y Ly P A k

    q

    U.S. C y

    v . T v. T

    A U S,

    6 7 7 .3 B

    P Bk O y

    y

    U.S. 9. N

    O ,

    .

    T ky v

    A U

    S vy A y.

    T y 36

    7 59 . M

    8 A y

    vy y A y.4

    A v x

    . Ny 8

    A x

    v

    v

    .5 T y

    A

    A .

    A y k v

    A,

    For the first time in

    our history, we face

    the situation where

    our largest trading

    partner is neither a

    developed nation, nor

    a democracy, nor partf the Western alliance.

    Increasingly our

    trategic commentators

    are seeing our alliance

    obligations clashing

    with, or at a minimum

    diverging from, our

    longer-term economic

    interests.

  • 8/4/2019 Power and Values in a Changing Asia: Debating Australia's Strategic Future

    6/14

    Power and Values in a Changing Asia: Debating Australias Strategic Future 3

    Since 2008, the

    proportion of

    respondents who

    believe that Chinas

    aim is to dominate

    has risen from 60 t

    percent. Even stark

    is the finding that 4

    percent of Australia

    believe that China

    leading trading par

    is likely or very lik

    to pose a military th

    to Australia in the n

    two decades.

    v yA k y.

    A ,

    k - A .

    T-q A

    , A v

    .6

    W v A

    ? T Ly I

    v v

    A y

    v, v x v C.

    A

    U.S. v

    v y k

    C - . S 8,

    v

    C A 6

    65 . Ev k 44

    A v C

    ky vy ky

    y A x .7 T

    A-P

    C y

    v.

    T A

    U.S. q, v.

    I y vy

    k. I y

    v

    v y

    A v Iq y

    A. N ,

    v A k

    y U.S.-

    S K k N.8

    Ny -q A z

    k ky A

    A y

    A . A

    C ky vy ky y

    A, 87

    C U S ky

    A

    .9

    T C W, jy A k

    A . Ty 55

    U.S. y

    A (43 )

    y vv A.

    Implications for Policy

    W vy

    A

    y y

    v

    y y

    . A

    C ,

    y C

    y - y

    v y Bj

    v, -

    , y

    .

    A C ,

    v y C - ,

    C y

    v y

    - v. H

  • 8/4/2019 Power and Values in a Changing Asia: Debating Australia's Strategic Future

    7/14

    The German Marshall Fund of the United States4

    p A gwg ccpc cy vw w cb

    bvc, , w cy

    cy by U.S. c

    cc gg gy. Accg p,

    y 60 pc A bv c

    k A ck p

    C.

    I w p , c 21

    cy, c c c g gv

    gc cc g y

    cc w g A pw w

    w, v , w v

    c . I w, c c

    py bg vp

    cc A p w C

    21 cy pv

    py w pc gy cc

    gg w Jp g c

    20 cy.

    N A cg cg. T

    gy c E A,

    w c kg bc

    cc pc C w p

    gv pc cy pc

    Bjg. I cc Jp, S

    K, I, I, v V

    c w C g

    c-g g p kg

    g cy w U

    S.13 Wy w A k c

    Wg k q

    p bw U S C w

    p g p g

    pcy pp?

    Australia: Friends with Both the United States

    and China, but Ally of Only One

    O c pg

    c gy w b p. I A

    g gy, cc

    gc w gy c g c w y ppg

    cy y g v

    vy w 100 y.

    B S-Ac cp gw

    cy w A pcy

    gg b .

    S c p A c

    g cc bw c w

    U S cc w C,

    gz b g g c

    bw w.14

    I g. W v y c. W c

    1951, w c U S. A D

    Rc, Scy Dp Fg

    A T, y, w w

    b U S C b y y

    . T pg c bv k y

    c A pbc cvy

    c v c, p k

    c. T cg A pcy

    x c xp , yg,

    A vg closer U S b

    kg py C y. T w

    q k by, pcy gc

    cp bw C U S

    . B cvb.

    N w j cc bw

    C U S. C A

    pw z j w A w b

    cy pv, w p

    y g g ppy by

    v p 60 y. A c

    U S w

    bk cky w w C. B U.S. pc pbc kg

    cc. T v U.S. v

    gy cc b, pc C

    pc, U.S. pbc p cby

    w C A

    The alliance could play

    a similar enabling role

    in the development of

    a successful Australianrelationship with

    China in the first half

    of the 21st century

    to the pivotal one it

    played with respect to

    our highly successful

    ngagement with Japan

    during the second half

    of the 20th century.

  • 8/4/2019 Power and Values in a Changing Asia: Debating Australia's Strategic Future

    8/14

    Power and Values in a Changing Asia: Debating Australias Strategic Future 5

    Australia and other

    countries should w

    as hard as possible

    to avoid China-U.S.

    competition escala

    out of control. But t

    idea that we could

    somehow stand as

    from such a conflic

    fanciful.

    ( U.S.-C q ).5

    T ;

    A k

    v C-U.S.

    . B

    . A y

    v y

    vv.

    A , J H

    A U S C,

    y v U.S. C

    A v

    y. Y H y

    U S

    y

    v, , y. I

    , H A

    k vy v

    C A, I y k ,

    C U

    S, A U

    S.6

    R A

    y S-A ,

    q

    A

    . S 7, L

    Py y v P M

    Kv R y M

    H

    C, J, I. N R

    P M J G v U.S.

    A k. T R

    v 9 D W P

    C y

    z q C y

    z. G Bj v J

    y

    y

    C A

    A y.7

    A y v C y qk

    y v v

    U S . B A

    A . I

    v A

    y k y .

    Ay x y -

    . P M G v

    D L.

    S v v

    U S y C

    , y

    vk C.

    B y , C

    ,

    q y v ? W xy

    C v ? A

    y, y, y

    v y

    Bj . I y

    k- k

    x ,

    A k.

    A y , A

    y .

    A, U S

    , A v

    . W A,

    J, I j U S

    y y y

  • 8/4/2019 Power and Values in a Changing Asia: Debating Australia's Strategic Future

    9/14

    The German Marshall Fund of the United States6

    s Chinas power grows,

    the most effective way

    for Western nations to

    influence its behavior

    will be to work together.

    Chinas behavior for

    decades to come could

    be shaped by how we

    deal with it and what

    e let it get away with

    in the next few years.

    4 , U.S. A y

    J qk

    .8 S- y y

    x.

    N C y j k-

    j k

    C

    , v,

    y. A C ,

    v y W

    v k . C

    v y

    y

    x y.

    T y , not

    W C

    W y y x

    Sv U, y y,

    vy k . F :

    U.S. A y C

    y

    G. W C

    Sv U: Bj

    v

    , M (

    , yy).

    A , v, C

    k

    , x ,

    A. T

    Bj x ,

    C k x .

    T ky C y

    k k

    . D y y

    v y k C

    , C y -

    . W

    , ,

    C.

    Cy . W

    x , k

    W Bj v

    y

    . Py C k .

    T j x y

    v y .

    Kv R x , x.

    F

    C x v

    v, Bj

    C. T , v, y

    y - v C,

    Bj x. B A

    y

    .

    W z v C

    y

    v x. B

    v

    vy Bj

    v. T U.S.

    .

    A New Alliance for a New Century

    F A A v x

    A-U.S. y v,

    y 9/. A

    97,

    y v

  • 8/4/2019 Power and Values in a Changing Asia: Debating Australia's Strategic Future

    10/14

    Power and Values in a Changing Asia: Debating Australias Strategic Future 7

    What we are seeing

    is an increasing lev

    of de facto integrat

    of Australias defen

    capabilities with th

    of the United States

    y C W A-

    P , v y

    y v,

    y y

    . Ov ,

    v k,

    -v y x

    y, -

    .

    B y, ,

    v v.9

    A U.S. y

    v k v

    . A v

    y U.S. A

    Iq. A

    U.S.

    Iq. T A D F (ADF)

    y

    ; A

    y v

    . A

    P Sy Iv

    x.

    F v , k j

    q , A v

    y

    U.S. y. A y A-U S

    M (AUSMIN) k, A U.S.

    y y . A

    , y

    z

    .

    A y B jy - U.S.

    , x U.S. N

    D Py, U.S.

    y, y W

    U.S. y. T

    ADF jy ,

    U.S. C C

    jy y P C

    H v k

    S C

    ( y) JF C. I ,

    v A

    U S.

    Evy ADF ,

    v

    v y y U S. T

    v y

    y

    - y

    y v

    .

    U.S. Partnership will Grow More Important to

    Australia, Even as it Asks More of Australia

    Ov x ,

    , , A. I

    A, .

    I v y

    , C. I v

    , :

    y k

    , v. T

    y

    v

    A .

    T , C,

    k

  • 8/4/2019 Power and Values in a Changing Asia: Debating Australia's Strategic Future

    11/14

    The German Marshall Fund of the United States8

    As Asias strategicndscape changes, the

    United States is looking

    to diversify its regional

    military footprint, with

    ess emphasis on large

    bases in Northeast

    sia and more on other

    orms of access further

    south and west. This is

    bringing Australia into

    he frame as a possibleocation for supporting

    U.S. forces.

    A, v

    A. A

    I O W P

    y

    C ; C

    I v j ;

    y y ;

    , y,

    .

    T U.S. x

    A ky

    , U.S.

    .

    A v

    y y

    k y . D

    k , U.S. D

    Sy R G v

    q E

    .3 T B v, v

    ,

    y 8 ,

    y xy .

    T B y x y

    . T O k

    U.S. y $4 ;

    - , y

    $9

    .

    F A, q

    v U.S. y

    v k k k x y k

    . A

    ky

    . T A D F

    y y U.S. ky,

    y v A y. Y y

    y x xv

    . A A z

    y .

    G x A

    x

    9 D W

    P y y

    I v ,

    x y.

    T j

    , y

    y y. O

    y y

    v v

    y y

    U.S.- .

    Y

    v

    ADF. T ,

    , y A

    v v

    , - ,

    , v,

    y. W v

    y y k y

    . Mv, v

    v y

    y y U.S.

    J, S K, y I

    .

    A A , US k vy y

    ,

    N A

    . T

    A

  • 8/4/2019 Power and Values in a Changing Asia: Debating Australia's Strategic Future

    12/14

    Power and Values in a Changing Asia: Debating Australias Strategic Future 9

    U.S. . Ex A

    x y x y U.S.

    v v, , ,

    vy q. T

    k

    y . T

    Ly P jy A

    ;4 v A

    . T

    vy A .

    ConclusionT U S v y y

    --k

    y A. Ty W vy

    v k

    k- v

    y y

    v

    y . A

    y y v

    .

    A y , , - 95. W

    : , .

    S

    y, ,

    v A

    A-U.S.

    . T A

    , y

    , W

    : y A,

    v v. B

    y.

    Endnotes M Ck, R H, Ry M, AS, Power and choice: Asian security futures. Syy, LyI I Py, J , . 8.

    Defending Australia in the Asia Pacific century: Force 2030.C, A D D, 9.

    3 F H,Australia and the world: public opinion andforeign policy. Syy, Ly I I Py,, . .

    4 I. . 3.

    5 I. . 4.

    6 H,Australia and the world: public opinion and foreignpolicy, . 4.

    7 I. . 5.

    8 I. . 7.9 I. . .

    I. . 4.

    H W, P : A W- Bj. Quarterly Essay 39 , . 8.

    A S, Sweet and sour: Australian public attitudestowards China. Syy, Ly I I Py,A , . .

    3 Ck, H, M S, Power and choice:Asian security futures, . 7.

    4 S x S S, A C -. Taipei Times 3 Jy , . 8; Dv H,C . Sydney Morning Herald9 Jy; H W. U.S.-C: N y . The Inter-

    preter, 7 Jy : ://.y.///7/7/US-C-N-y--.x.

    5 P G R C, China seen overtaking US asglobal superpower: 23-Nation Pew Global Attitudes Survey, 3Jy , C. 4.

    6 J H, Lazarus rising. Syy, HC, ,. 57.

    7 J G, G v k C .Sydney Morning Herald A , . .

    8 M G, T T C G: y A y. Security Challenges () 5, . -4.

    9 G S, The partnership: the inside story of the U.S.-Australian alliance under Howard and Bush. Syy, UNSWP, 6, . 3.

    AUSMIN 2010 Joint Communiqu. M, 8 Nv, . -3.

    T Y, Resident power: the case for an enhanced U.S.military presence in Australia. S S. Syy, LyI I Py, Jy , . .

    S, x, C D ExA , C, Jy 9[5], D 6 H, J A (.), Documents on Australian

  • 8/4/2019 Power and Values in a Changing Asia: Debating Australia's Strategic Future

    13/14

    The German Marshall Fund of the United States10

    foreign policy: the ANZUS Treaty 1951 , . .

    3 T D Sy G NATO. Wall Street Journal J : ://.j.///6//---y-----/.

    4 H,Australia and the world: public opinion and foreignpolicy, . .

  • 8/4/2019 Power and Values in a Changing Asia: Debating Australia's Strategic Future

    14/14

    Off i c e s

    Washington Berlin Paris BrusselsBelgrade Ankara Bucharest Warsaw

    www.gmu.org

    11 Charles Street Mayfair

    London W1J 5DW UK

    www.l.om