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Transcript of Power and Values in a Changing Asia: Debating Australia's Strategic Future
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Democratic asia anD the West PaPer series 2011
PoWer anD Values in a changing asiaDb a s F
anDreW shearer
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2011 Te German Marshall Fund o the United States. All rights reserved.
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Marshall Fund o the United States. Te views expressed here are those o the author and do not necessarily represent the
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Cover photo: Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao (L) and Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard walk past a guard o honor
during a welcoming ceremony held at the Great Hall o the People in Beijing, 26 April 2011.Photo Diego Azubel/epa/Corbis.
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Power and Values in a Changing Asia:Debating Australias Strategic Future
Democratic Asia and The West Paper Series
September 2011
A S
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Power and Values in a Changing Asia: Debating Australias Strategic Future 1
This Pax Americana
created the conditifor the Asian econo
miracle, seeing off
external threat pos
by the Soviet Union
tamping down regio
rivalries, managing
the reintegration of
Japan, and freeing
the countries of Ea
Asia to allocate the
national resources development rathe
than to costly spen
on defense. The res
were spectacular.
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Asias Shifting Strategic Landscape
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States2
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For the first time in
our history, we face
the situation where
our largest trading
partner is neither a
developed nation, nor
a democracy, nor partf the Western alliance.
Increasingly our
trategic commentators
are seeing our alliance
obligations clashing
with, or at a minimum
diverging from, our
longer-term economic
interests.
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Power and Values in a Changing Asia: Debating Australias Strategic Future 3
Since 2008, the
proportion of
respondents who
believe that Chinas
aim is to dominate
has risen from 60 t
percent. Even stark
is the finding that 4
percent of Australia
believe that China
leading trading par
is likely or very lik
to pose a military th
to Australia in the n
two decades.
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The alliance could play
a similar enabling role
in the development of
a successful Australianrelationship with
China in the first half
of the 21st century
to the pivotal one it
played with respect to
our highly successful
ngagement with Japan
during the second half
of the 20th century.
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Power and Values in a Changing Asia: Debating Australias Strategic Future 5
Australia and other
countries should w
as hard as possible
to avoid China-U.S.
competition escala
out of control. But t
idea that we could
somehow stand as
from such a conflic
fanciful.
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States6
s Chinas power grows,
the most effective way
for Western nations to
influence its behavior
will be to work together.
Chinas behavior for
decades to come could
be shaped by how we
deal with it and what
e let it get away with
in the next few years.
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Power and Values in a Changing Asia: Debating Australias Strategic Future 7
What we are seeing
is an increasing lev
of de facto integrat
of Australias defen
capabilities with th
of the United States
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States8
As Asias strategicndscape changes, the
United States is looking
to diversify its regional
military footprint, with
ess emphasis on large
bases in Northeast
sia and more on other
orms of access further
south and west. This is
bringing Australia into
he frame as a possibleocation for supporting
U.S. forces.
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Power and Values in a Changing Asia: Debating Australias Strategic Future 9
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Endnotes M Ck, R H, Ry M, AS, Power and choice: Asian security futures. Syy, LyI I Py, J , . 8.
Defending Australia in the Asia Pacific century: Force 2030.C, A D D, 9.
3 F H,Australia and the world: public opinion andforeign policy. Syy, Ly I I Py,, . .
4 I. . 3.
5 I. . 4.
6 H,Australia and the world: public opinion and foreignpolicy, . 4.
7 I. . 5.
8 I. . 7.9 I. . .
I. . 4.
H W, P : A W- Bj. Quarterly Essay 39 , . 8.
A S, Sweet and sour: Australian public attitudestowards China. Syy, Ly I I Py,A , . .
3 Ck, H, M S, Power and choice:Asian security futures, . 7.
4 S x S S, A C -. Taipei Times 3 Jy , . 8; Dv H,C . Sydney Morning Herald9 Jy; H W. U.S.-C: N y . The Inter-
preter, 7 Jy : ://.y.///7/7/US-C-N-y--.x.
5 P G R C, China seen overtaking US asglobal superpower: 23-Nation Pew Global Attitudes Survey, 3Jy , C. 4.
6 J H, Lazarus rising. Syy, HC, ,. 57.
7 J G, G v k C .Sydney Morning Herald A , . .
8 M G, T T C G: y A y. Security Challenges () 5, . -4.
9 G S, The partnership: the inside story of the U.S.-Australian alliance under Howard and Bush. Syy, UNSWP, 6, . 3.
AUSMIN 2010 Joint Communiqu. M, 8 Nv, . -3.
T Y, Resident power: the case for an enhanced U.S.military presence in Australia. S S. Syy, LyI I Py, Jy , . .
S, x, C D ExA , C, Jy 9[5], D 6 H, J A (.), Documents on Australian
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States10
foreign policy: the ANZUS Treaty 1951 , . .
3 T D Sy G NATO. Wall Street Journal J : ://.j.///6//---y-----/.
4 H,Australia and the world: public opinion and foreignpolicy, . .
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