Potential Future Regional Modeling Center Cumulative Analysis
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Transcript of Potential Future Regional Modeling Center Cumulative Analysis
WRAP Workshop July 29-30, 2008
Potential Future Regional Modeling Center
Cumulative Analysis
Ralph Morris
ENVIRON International Corporation
Novato, California
Workshop on Regional Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Studies
Western Regional Air Partnership
Denver, Colorado
July 29, 2008
WRAP Workshop July 29-30, 2008
Purpose• To discuss potential activities to be included in a 2009
Scope of Work (SoW) for the next generation of the WRAP Regional Modeling Center (RMC)
• One potential future RMC task could be to provide regional air quality modeling support to the air quality components of NEPA and PSD modeling activities:– Ensures consistent approaches– Uses latest inventories, meteorology and models– Transparent assessments in the open– Serves as a repository of databases– Accounts for cumulative assessment across all potential new
projects in western U.S.• This work would be broken into a Core Effort that
provides regional modeling support across western States and Optional Efforts to provide project-specific support as requested
WRAP Workshop July 29-30, 2008
Background• Oil and Gas (O&G) development in the western states has grown
substantially in recent years
• Under NEPA, new O&G development projects must disclose potential environment impacts due to the Project alone and Project plus all other new developments in the region (Cumulative Assessment)
• New sources also need to estimate their potential AQ and AQRV impacts under PSD permitting process
• NEPA and PSD not limited to O&G development projects
WRAP Workshop July 29-30, 2008
Example Evolution of O&G EIS in SWWY• Jonah Infill Drilling Project EIS completed 2006
(Sublette County in Southwest Wyoming)– AQ and AQRV analysis using AERMOD & CALPUFF
• Draft Supplemental EIS for Pinedale Anticline development project completed in 2007– AERMOD and CALPUFF used
• In 2005, elevated winter ozone measurements are recorded in Sublette County (repeated in 2006 and 2008) – Pinedale Anticline SEIS performs ozone modeling
assessment– Final Pinedale Anticline SEIS released June 2008
showed exceedances of the 8-hour ozone NAAQS (0.075 ppm)
WRAP Workshop July 29-30, 2008
Running 8-Hour Ozone at Jonah Monitoring Site February 2005
8-Hour Ozone Measured at the Jonah Monitor in Southwest Wyoming: February, 2005
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WRAP Workshop July 29-30, 2008
Example Evolution of O&G EIS in SWWY• BLM Hiawatha and Moxa Arch O&G development
projects in SWWY– Modeling Protocol proposes AERMOD and CALPUFF (NRG,
2006)– Need to address ozone due to high ozone measurements in
Feb/Mar 2005/2006• CAMx model applied for just ozone using 36/12/4 km grid• 4 km ozone impacts in SWWY
• Questions Regarding Adequacy of Emissions in SWWY– Current-year WRAP Phase II O&G emissions deficient in VOC
emissions (designed for regional haze modeling)– Future-year Reasonable Foreseeable Development (RFD)
scenarios from past EISs also deficient in VOCs• VOCs not reported in RFD inventories as ozone modeling wasn’t
performed
– Need to redo AERMOD, CALPUFF and CAMx ozone modeling w/ corrected inventories for Hiawatha and Moxa Arch O&G EISs
WRAP Workshop July 29-30, 2008
Oil and Gas Development in SWWY
WRAP Workshop July 29-30, 2008
Example Evolution of O&G EIS in SWWY
• 2007 BLM Continental Divide-Creston (CD-C) EIS in SWWY– Propose to use CMAQ or CAMx for all far-field AQ
and AQRV as well as for ozone (No CALPUFF)– Detailed emissions updates for 2005 and 2006 in
SWWY (O&G VOC emissions increase from 200 TPY from WRAP Phase II to >100,000 TPY)
– CMAQ/CAMx evaluation comparison and model selection
• Updated SWWY O&G emissions to be used in revised Hiawatha and Moxa Arch EIS modeling– Drop CALPUFF and use CAMx for ozone as well as
far-field AQ/AQRV
WRAP Workshop July 29-30, 2008
CD-C EIS 36/12/4 km Modeling Domains
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CAMx 36/12/4 Modeling Domain
36 km: 148 x 112 (-2736, -2088) to (2592, 1944)12 km: 89 x 68 (-1452, -84) to (-384, 732)04 km: 101 x 110 (-1084, 32) to (-680, 472)
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WRAP Workshop July 29-30, 2008
CD-C 12/4 km Modeling Domain
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CAMx 12/4 Modeling Domain
12 km: 89 x 68 (-1452, -84) to (-384, 732)04 km: 101 x 110 (-1084, 32) to (-680, 472)
C lass I A reasIM PR O VEC ASTN ETN ADPO ther PM m onitorsO zone m onitors
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CAMx 12/4 Modeling Domain
12 km: 89 x 68 (-1452, -84) to (-384, 732)04 km: 101 x 110 (-1084, 32) to (-680, 472)
C lass I A reasIM PR O VEC ASTN ETN ADPO ther PM m onitorsO zone m onitors
WRAP Workshop July 29-30, 2008
Relationship with other future RMC Activities
• Much of emissions, meteorological and air quality regional modeling to support EIS and PSD needs is also applicable to information needed for 8-hour ozone and PM2.5 SIPs/TIPs and 2012 regional haze SIP checks.
• Regional 36/12 km modeling can be used to provide BCs to states for focused 12/4 km modeling to address 8-hour ozone and PM2.5 SIP attainment demonstration, including regional control strategies
• New 36/12 km base year and 2013 and 2018 year modeling can be used in the 2012 regional haze SIP check analyses
• Rural/remote areas and Class I areas can be analyzed down to 12/4 km resolution for impacts and regional control strategies across state, tribal, and federal lines
• Science updates of the future RMC can be implemented in EIS modeling
• Documentation and delivery of results through WRAP TSS
WRAP Workshop July 29-30, 2008
RMC Support to EIS/PSD Modeling• Core Support for EIS/PSD and Other Regional Air Quality
Management– Periodic Updates of Base-Year and Future-Year Emissions
Inventories – meets key need for emissions data management• Update Project-Specific information as it becomes available• Repository for emissions data and modeling files
– Base-Year 36/12 km MM5/WRF Meteorological Modeling• Western US 12 km Domain
– SMOKE Emissions and CMAQ/CAMx AQ Modeling on 36/12 km domain for Base- and Future-Years
• Model Performance Evaluation• Visibility and AQ Projections• BCs for more local-scale 12/4 km domains
– Documentation & delivery of results through WRAP TSS
WRAP Workshop July 29-30, 2008
WRAP 36/12 km Modeling Domains
• RMC would periodically update 36/12 km modeling and provide BCs to local-scale 12/4 modeling studies– EIS
– PSD
– NAAQS
– Other?
WRAP Workshop July 29-30, 2008
RMC Support to EIS/PSD Modeling
• Optional Support to EIS/PSD Studies– Project-Specific Modeling Protocol– 4 km MM5/WRF Meteorological Modeling
• MM5/WRF Data Processing to Project-Specific 12/4 km Domain
– SMOKE Emissions Modeling 12/4 km– CMAQ/CAMx 12/4 km Base- and Future-Year Modeling
• Zero-Out or Source-Apportionment modeling to address project-specific and cumulative new source impacts
• Address Ambient Standards, PSD I and II, Visibility, Deposition, ANC, etc.
– Documentation of Results in Technical Support Documents (TSDs) and/or
– Documentation & delivery of results through WRAP TSS
WRAP Workshop July 29-30, 2008
RMC Support to EIS/PSD Modeling• Additional Optional RMC Support to EIS/PSD
– Processing of MM5/12/4 km data for CALMET– Processing of surface, upper-air and precipitation data
for CALMET– Processing of future-year project-specific and cumulative
emissions for CALPUFF– CALMET meteorological modeling or use of new MM5
translator to map MM5 data directly to CALPUFF inputs– CALPUFF modeling of project-specific and cumulative
sources• Post-processing for Ambient Standards, PSD Increments,
visibility, deposition and ANC– Documentation in a TSD and/or– Documentation & delivery of results through WRAP TSS
WRAP Workshop July 29-30, 2008
Relationship with Regional AQ Planning Efforts
• EIS and PSD Modeling Efforts– Continuous Support Needed
• New 35 µg/m3 24-h PM2.5 NAAQS (revised 2006)– New Area Designations:November 2009– New SIPs: April 2012– Attainment Deadline: April 2015
• New 0.075 ppm 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS (revised March 2008)– New Area Designations:2010 (2007-2009 data)– New SIPs: 2013– Attainment Deadline: 2016 (Moderate) to 2030 (Extreme)
• Regional Haze 2012 SIP Check analyses
WRAP Workshop July 29-30, 2008
• Potential 8-hour ozone nonattainment areas under the new 2008 0.075 (pink) NAAQS [and 0.070 ppm (pink+blue) NAAQS]
8-Hour Ozone NAAQS
Current nonattainment areas under 1997 0.08 ppm 8-hour ozone NAAQS
WRAP Workshop July 29-30, 2008
2006 PM2.5 NAAQS
PM2.5 NAAQS
1997 PM2.5 NAAQS
WRAP Workshop July 29-30, 2008
Next Generation of the WRAP Regional Modeling Center (RMC)
• Questions
• Comments
• Discussion