FireWorks curriculum featuring ponderosa, lodgepole, and ...
Potential Change in Lodgepole Pine Site Index and Distribution under Climate Change in Alberta...
-
Upload
candice-goodkin -
Category
Documents
-
view
215 -
download
2
Transcript of Potential Change in Lodgepole Pine Site Index and Distribution under Climate Change in Alberta...
Potential Change in Lodgepole Pine Site Index and Distribution
under Climate Change in Alberta
Robert A. MonserudPacific Northwest Research Station,
Portland, Oregon, USA
Yuqing Yang & Shongming Huang Ministry of Sustainable Resource Development,
Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
Nadja TchebakovaSukachev Forest Institute, Krasnoyarsk, Russia
Western Mensurationists 2007
Objectives
• Examine variation in both LPP site productivity and species range under future climate change scenarios across Alberta
Lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta)
• Alberta’s most important & common forest tree
• 20% of mature stems, 40% of annual harvest
• Wide ecological amplitude– Best on moist rich sites with long warm
growing season– Also grows on dry, nutrient poor sites with
short growing season– Can tolerate frost pockets and cold air
drainage
Steps
1. Map LPP site productivity (SI) across Alberta
2. Map climate across Alberta
3. Connect SI and climate (GDD5)
4. Connect species range and climate (DI)
5. Interpolate climate change scenarios onto Alberta Climate Map
6. Calculate potential SI and species range under climate change scenarios
Productivity Data:
1145 Stem analysis plots
•Mean SI = 14.4 m•Range = 4.3 to 26.5 m
Step 1
•ANUSPLIN map of site index across the natural distribution of lodgepole pine
•Residual Mean = 0•Residual S.Dev.=1.24 m
Step 1b: Map SI
Step 2: Alberta Climate Model
• Basis: network of 1260-1433 weather stations
• Period: 1961-1990 (30-yr climate normals)
• Buffer: 2o around Alberta
• Mapping tools: ANUSPLIN & ArcInfo– Thin-plate 4-D smoothing splines– Uses Latitude, Longitude, Elevation to predict 4th variable– (Hutchinson, Australian Nat’l Univ)
•Growing degree days >5oC (GDD5)
5
365
1
5 )( GDDdtTT
Step 2: Map Climate
Step 3
• Connect Alberta Climate Model to the network of 1145 Site Index plots for LPP across Alberta
• Variables in common:
Latitude, Longitude, Elevation
Step 3 Results: SI=f(GDD5)
• Strongest correlations with Site Index: Measures of Heat– Julian date when GDD5 reaches
100 (D100)– Growing degree days >5oC
(GDD5)– Mean temperature of July, the
warmest month• Explains 26% of variation• All 3 are highly
intercorrelated (r=0.98)
Step 4: Connect species range and climate
• Connect species range and climate using Dryness Index (DI)
• DI is the ratio of GDD5 to annual precipitation
• 99% DI limits on natural range of LPP are 0.9-2.6 oC mm-1
Step 5: Climate Change Scenarios• Used 3 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from IPCC
– Hamburg– Hadley– Canadian
• Used new SRES A2 emissions scenarios – (“Business-as-usual”)
• Used all three 30-yr time periods:– 2020s (2011-2040) – 2050s (2041-2070) – 2080s (2071-2100)
• Scenarios are monthly anomalies (differences) in temperature and precipitation from current climate
• Anomalies must be added to Alberta current climate map
Step 5: Interpolate Anomalies
• Interpolate climate change scenarios onto Alberta Climate Map (2 km x 2 km)
• GCMs are very coarse resolution: 2.5o to 3.75o
• Weighted average of 5 closest anomalies for each of 166,000 pixels (weight = inverse distance squared)
• Add weighted anomalies to current climate map
Current climate vs. 2080 GDD5
Step 6: Potential SI
• Calculate potential SI and species range under climate change scenarios
• SI = 2.4 + 0.012 GDD5
• Species range: Dryness Index 0.9 to 2.6oC mm-1
CCM Predicted SI: Current & 2020
CCM Predicted SI: 2050 & 2080
Current Climate SI
Hadley: 2020, 2050, 2080 SI
Current Climate SI
Hamburg: 2020, 2050, 2080 SI
Results• Similar results across all 3 GCM scenarios:• Increasing warming but no increase in
precipitation (hotter and drier)• Potential productivity (SI) increasing steadily
1 m/decade• Potential range expands in 2020s (40-70%),
but shrinks greatly in 2050s & 2080s (40-70% reduction in potential area)
Discussion• Increased risk of forest fire• Increased risk of mountain pine beetle outbreaks
(warmer winters)– Potential for MPB to bridge east to the Atlantic
• Reforestation (planting) should consider populations adapted to future climates
• Northern populations might already be adapted to future warm climates (Rehfeldt’s BC work on LPP)
That’s all, folks
• Thanks