PotashCorp - Morgan Stanley Global Chemicals Conference - November 15, 2012
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Transcript of PotashCorp - Morgan Stanley Global Chemicals Conference - November 15, 2012
PotashCorp.com
Morgan Stanley Global Chemicals Conference
November 15, 2012
Bill Doyle
President and CEO
This presentation contains forward-looking statements or forward-looking information (forward-looking statements). These statements can be identified by expressions of belief, expectation or intention, as well as those statements that are not historical fact. These statements are based on certain factors and assumptions including with respect to: foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities, and effective tax rates. While the company considers these factors and assumptions to be reasonable based on information currently available, they may prove to be incorrect. Several factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to: variations from our assumptions with respect to foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities, and effective tax rates; fluctuations in supply and demand in the fertilizer, sulfur, transportation and petrochemical markets; costs and availability of transportation and distribution for our raw materials and products, including railcars and ocean freight; changes in competitive pressures, including pricing pressures; adverse or uncertain economic conditions and changes in credit and financial markets; the results of sales contract negotiations with major markets; economic and political uncertainty around the world, including the European sovereign debt crisis; timing and impact of capital expenditures; risks associated with natural gas and other hedging activities; changes in capital markets and corresponding effects on the company’s investments; unexpected or adverse weather conditions; changes in currency and exchange rates; unexpected geological or environmental conditions, including water inflows; imprecision in reserve estimates; adverse developments in new and pending legal proceedings or government investigations; acquisitions we may undertake; strikes or other forms of work stoppage or slowdowns; changes in, and the effects of, government policies and regulations; security risks related to our information technology systems; and earnings, exchange rates and the decisions of taxing authorities, all of which could affect our effective tax rates. Additional risks and uncertainties can be found in our Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2011 under the captions “Forward-Looking Statements” and “Item 1A – Risk Factors” and in our other filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the Canadian provincial securities commissions. Forward-looking statements are given only as at the date of this release and the company disclaims any obligation to update or revise the forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.
Forward-looking Statements
Key Takeaways
• Ongoing pressure on global grain inventories expected to keep agricultural fundamentals strong in coming years
• Continuing strength in potash “spot” markets – Brazil, North America and Other Asia (excluding China and India)
• Potash “contract” markets – China and India – expected to rebound in 2013
• Well positioned in N, P and K to leverage growing demand
• Major capex program winding down; strong track record in deploying free cash
SQM
ICL
APC
Nitrogen
Phosphate
(Mining/Processing)
Potash
Investments
Sinofert
Source: Fertecon; CRU; Blue, Johnson & Associates; PotashCorp
A Global Crop Nutrient Company
PotashCorp Profile
Potash Phosphate Nitrogen
% of Global Capacity 20% 5% 2%
Global Position #1 #3 #3
% of Gross Margin (2011) 64% 15% 21%
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
2012F*0
1
2
3
4
5
6Potash GM Phosphate GM Nitrogen GM
* 2012F as at October 25, 2012
Percent – Sept 2012 YTDUS$ Billions
Unique Potash Position Drives Earnings Growth
PotashCorp Profile
Source: PotashCorp
Potash Phosphate Nitrogen0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Gross Margin by Segment Gross Margin Percentage of Net Sales
Agriculture Update
Source: USDA
World Grain ProfileRecent Stagnated Production Has Tightened Grain Inventories
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012F
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
Billion Tonnes
Based on crop year data. For example, 12F refers to the 2012/13 crop year.
86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12F10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Percent
25-year average
Global Stocks-to-Use RatioWorld Grain Production
Global Crop Prices and Return on FertilizerStrong Crop Prices Have Supported Fertilizer Affordability
Source: IPNI, DTN, Safras and Mercado, Malaysian Palm Oil Board, Brilliant Pioneer Consultants, Bloomberg, Industry Publications
Brazil Soybean
Malaysia Oil Palm
India Wheat
US Corn China Rice
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2012E Return per US$
10
12YTD 10
12YTD 10
12YTD 10
12YTD 10
12YTD 10
12YTD 10
12YTD0
50
100
150
200
250 Corn WheatSoybean Palm Oil
10-year average = 100
Index to 10-year Average by Crop Return per Dollar Spent by Crop
As of October 30, 2012
Potash Market Update
Source: IPNI, USDA, PotashCorp
2013 Return Over Variable Costs Scenarios
Favorable Crop Economics Driving Strong Demand
North American Potash Market Update
US$/Acre
$4 $5 $6 $70
200
400
600
800
1,0002013F 10-Year Average
Corn Price Scenarios (US$/bu)
Shipments to North American Market*
2002/03
2004/05
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
2012/13
F
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0Jul-Dec Jan-Jun
Million Tonnes KCl
First-half Average
Full-year Average**
* Includes shipments from domestic producers and offshore imports
** Based on Olympic average
Source: Safras and Mercado, ANDA, PotashCorp
Strong Returns and Agronomic Need Are Driving Record Nutrient Consumption
Brazil Potash Market Update
Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Percent
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul AugSept Oct Nov Dec0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20 2011 2012
Million Tonnes KCl
Brazil Soybean Gross Margin Percentage Brazil Potash Imports
China Market UpdateConsumption Levels Increasing But Significant Agronomic Need Remains
Source: Fertecon, IFA, USDA, PotashCorp
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012F
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Chart TitleMillion Tonnes K20
US China0
50
100
150
200
250N P2O5 K2O
Pounds/acre
Potash Fertilizer Consumption Fertilizer Application Rates for Corn
Source: Fertecon, CRU, FAI, PotashCorp
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
2012F0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0 Potash Fertilizer Consumption N:K Ratio
Million Tonnes of K20
Existing Subsidy System Affecting Demand, Inventories and Application Imbalance
India Fertilizer Market Situation
N:K Ratio
2011 2012F0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
Millions Tonnes of KCL
Potash Consumption and Fertility Imbalance Estimated Year-end Inventory
Other Asia Market UpdateStrong Consumption Expected to Pull Year-end Inventories Lower
Source: Fertecon, FMB
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012F
0
1
2
3
4
5
Chart TitleMillion Tonnes K20
2011 2012F0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
Millions Tonnes of KCL
Potash Consumption Estimated Year-end Inventory
Our Opportunity and Potential
Source: Fertecon, PotashCorp
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012F
2014F
2016F
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Million Tonnes KCl
World Potash ShipmentsLong-term Trend Supports Rising Demand
Future growth scenarios based on long-term trend of approximately three percent CAGR
Source: Fertecon, CRU, Public Filings, PotashCorp
2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F0
1
2
3
4
5
6 POT Other NA Other
Million Tonnes KCl
PotashCorp Represents Majority of New Capability Coming Online
Global Potash Operational Capability Changes*
* Estimated annual achievable production level from existing operations; announced probable and possible projects; assuming typical ramp-up periods for new capacity. Probable and possible projects based on PotashCorp’s view of project probabilities.
** Global operational capability for 2012 is estimated at approximately 62-63mmt
Source: IPNI, DTN, USDA, Bloomberg, PotashCorp, Company Filings
Q1-09
Q2-09
Q3-09
Q4-09
Q1-10
Q2-10
Q3-10
Q4-10
Q1-11
Q2-11
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800Fertilizer Feed & Industrial
PotashCorp Average Realized Sales Price
Exposure to Industrial and Feed Products Providing Greater Stability
Phosphate Product Pricing and Product Mix
PotashCorp Mosaic*0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Industrial & Feed Fertilizer
2012 YTD Product Mix
US$/tonne
As of October 30, 2012 * Mosaic’s percentage based on last three fiscal quarter’s feed sales volume relative to total phosphate sales volume.
Source: PotashCorp
2011 2012F 2013F0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5 Trinidad Augusta Lima Geismar
Million Tonnes
Increasing Capacity in 2012 and 2013 Will Add Gross Margin Potential
PotashCorp Annual Ammonia Capacity
As of October 30, 2012
Source: IPNI, DTN, USDA, Bloomberg, PotashCorp
Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-120
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800Urea (FOB NOLA) Ammonia (CFR Tampa)
Spot Price
PotashCorp Benefiting From Current Ammonia Pricing
Nitrogen Product Pricing and Product Mix
40%
23%
37%
Ammonia Urea Solutions/NA/AN
2012 YTD Nitrogen Product Mix
US$/tonne
As of October 30, 2012
Cash Flow Opportunity
Generating Strong Operating Cash Flow Despite Lower Potash Sales
Cash Flow From Operating Activities* (Q3 YTD)
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
US$ Millions
Source: PotashCorp
As of October 30, 2012
* See selected Non-IFRS Financial Measures and Reconciliations in our 10-Q at www.potashcorp.com
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
US$ Millions
Major Potash Expansion Program Over 80 Percent Complete
PotashCorp Capital Spending
Source: PotashCorp
* Excluding capitalized interest and major repairs and maintenance
Source: PotashCorp
Focused on Using Free Cash Flow to Drive Long-Term Shareholder Value
Future Cash Flow Priorities
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Potential: Dividend Increases / Share Buybacks / M&A
Potash Projects (announced brownfields)
Nitrogen Projects (announced brownfields)
Dividend More Than Six-Times That of January 2011 Level
PotashCorp Dividend Per Share*
Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012$0.00
$0.05
$0.10
$0.15
$0.20
$0.25
$0.03
$0.07 $0.07 $0.07 $0.07
$0.14 $0.14
$0.21
US$ Per Share
* Dividends declared each quarter
Source: Bloomberg
As of October 30, 2012
Source: PotashCorp
Focused on Using Free Cash Flow to Drive Long-Term Shareholder Value
Historical Cash Flow Deployment
Opportunity Capital
$7.6 Billion since 2003
5-Year Average CFR1 = 24.3%
Equity Investments
$2.0 Billion since 1998
Current Market Value2 = $8.9 billionContributions from Investments3 = $2.2 billion
Share Repurchases
$6.3 Billion since 1999
Average purchase price = $26/shareCurrent share price2 = $39/share
Dividend Payments
$1.2 Billion since 2002
Now 6x higher than January 2011 dividend
1 CFR = Cash Flow Return (see selected Non-IFRS Financial Measures and Reconciliations in our Annual Report available at www.potashcorp.com)2 As at November 12, 20123 Proceeds from investments include dividends and share of equity earnings from original purchase date to Sept 30, 2012
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