PotashCorp - Morgan Stanley Global Chemicals Conference - November 15, 2012

27
PotashCorp.com Morgan Stanley Global Chemicals Conference November 15, 2012 Bill Doyle President and CEO

Transcript of PotashCorp - Morgan Stanley Global Chemicals Conference - November 15, 2012

Page 1: PotashCorp - Morgan Stanley Global Chemicals Conference - November 15, 2012

PotashCorp.com

Morgan Stanley Global Chemicals Conference

November 15, 2012

Bill Doyle

President and CEO

Page 2: PotashCorp - Morgan Stanley Global Chemicals Conference - November 15, 2012

This presentation contains forward-looking statements or forward-looking information (forward-looking statements). These statements can be identified by expressions of belief, expectation or intention, as well as those statements that are not historical fact. These statements are based on certain factors and assumptions including with respect to: foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities, and effective tax rates. While the company considers these factors and assumptions to be reasonable based on information currently available, they may prove to be incorrect. Several factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to: variations from our assumptions with respect to foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities, and effective tax rates; fluctuations in supply and demand in the fertilizer, sulfur, transportation and petrochemical markets; costs and availability of transportation and distribution for our raw materials and products, including railcars and ocean freight; changes in competitive pressures, including pricing pressures; adverse or uncertain economic conditions and changes in credit and financial markets; the results of sales contract negotiations with major markets; economic and political uncertainty around the world, including the European sovereign debt crisis; timing and impact of capital expenditures; risks associated with natural gas and other hedging activities; changes in capital markets and corresponding effects on the company’s investments; unexpected or adverse weather conditions; changes in currency and exchange rates; unexpected geological or environmental conditions, including water inflows; imprecision in reserve estimates; adverse developments in new and pending legal proceedings or government investigations; acquisitions we may undertake; strikes or other forms of work stoppage or slowdowns; changes in, and the effects of, government policies and regulations; security risks related to our information technology systems; and earnings, exchange rates and the decisions of taxing authorities, all of which could affect our effective tax rates. Additional risks and uncertainties can be found in our Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2011 under the captions “Forward-Looking Statements” and “Item 1A – Risk Factors” and in our other filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the Canadian provincial securities commissions. Forward-looking statements are given only as at the date of this release and the company disclaims any obligation to update or revise the forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.

Forward-looking Statements

Page 3: PotashCorp - Morgan Stanley Global Chemicals Conference - November 15, 2012

Key Takeaways

• Ongoing pressure on global grain inventories expected to keep agricultural fundamentals strong in coming years

• Continuing strength in potash “spot” markets – Brazil, North America and Other Asia (excluding China and India)

• Potash “contract” markets – China and India – expected to rebound in 2013

• Well positioned in N, P and K to leverage growing demand

• Major capex program winding down; strong track record in deploying free cash

Page 4: PotashCorp - Morgan Stanley Global Chemicals Conference - November 15, 2012

SQM

ICL

APC

Nitrogen

Phosphate

(Mining/Processing)

Potash

Investments

Sinofert

Source: Fertecon; CRU; Blue, Johnson & Associates; PotashCorp

A Global Crop Nutrient Company

PotashCorp Profile

Potash Phosphate Nitrogen

% of Global Capacity 20% 5% 2%

Global Position #1 #3 #3

% of Gross Margin (2011) 64% 15% 21%

Page 5: PotashCorp - Morgan Stanley Global Chemicals Conference - November 15, 2012

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

2012F*0

1

2

3

4

5

6Potash GM Phosphate GM Nitrogen GM

* 2012F as at October 25, 2012

Percent – Sept 2012 YTDUS$ Billions

Unique Potash Position Drives Earnings Growth

PotashCorp Profile

Source: PotashCorp

Potash Phosphate Nitrogen0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Gross Margin by Segment Gross Margin Percentage of Net Sales

Page 6: PotashCorp - Morgan Stanley Global Chemicals Conference - November 15, 2012

Agriculture Update

Page 7: PotashCorp - Morgan Stanley Global Chemicals Conference - November 15, 2012

Source: USDA

World Grain ProfileRecent Stagnated Production Has Tightened Grain Inventories

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012F

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

Billion Tonnes

Based on crop year data. For example, 12F refers to the 2012/13 crop year.

86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12F10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Percent

25-year average

Global Stocks-to-Use RatioWorld Grain Production

Page 8: PotashCorp - Morgan Stanley Global Chemicals Conference - November 15, 2012

Global Crop Prices and Return on FertilizerStrong Crop Prices Have Supported Fertilizer Affordability

Source: IPNI, DTN, Safras and Mercado, Malaysian Palm Oil Board, Brilliant Pioneer Consultants, Bloomberg, Industry Publications

Brazil Soybean

Malaysia Oil Palm

India Wheat

US Corn China Rice

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2012E Return per US$

10

12YTD 10

12YTD 10

12YTD 10

12YTD 10

12YTD 10

12YTD 10

12YTD0

50

100

150

200

250 Corn WheatSoybean Palm Oil

10-year average = 100

Index to 10-year Average by Crop Return per Dollar Spent by Crop

As of October 30, 2012

Page 9: PotashCorp - Morgan Stanley Global Chemicals Conference - November 15, 2012

Potash Market Update

Page 10: PotashCorp - Morgan Stanley Global Chemicals Conference - November 15, 2012

Source: IPNI, USDA, PotashCorp

2013 Return Over Variable Costs Scenarios

Favorable Crop Economics Driving Strong Demand

North American Potash Market Update

US$/Acre

$4 $5 $6 $70

200

400

600

800

1,0002013F 10-Year Average

Corn Price Scenarios (US$/bu)

Shipments to North American Market*

2002/03

2004/05

2006/07

2008/09

2010/11

2012/13

F

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0Jul-Dec Jan-Jun

Million Tonnes KCl

First-half Average

Full-year Average**

* Includes shipments from domestic producers and offshore imports

** Based on Olympic average

Page 11: PotashCorp - Morgan Stanley Global Chemicals Conference - November 15, 2012

Source: Safras and Mercado, ANDA, PotashCorp

Strong Returns and Agronomic Need Are Driving Record Nutrient Consumption

Brazil Potash Market Update

Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Percent

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul AugSept Oct Nov Dec0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20 2011 2012

Million Tonnes KCl

Brazil Soybean Gross Margin Percentage Brazil Potash Imports

Page 12: PotashCorp - Morgan Stanley Global Chemicals Conference - November 15, 2012

China Market UpdateConsumption Levels Increasing But Significant Agronomic Need Remains

Source: Fertecon, IFA, USDA, PotashCorp

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012F

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Chart TitleMillion Tonnes K20

US China0

50

100

150

200

250N P2O5 K2O

Pounds/acre

Potash Fertilizer Consumption Fertilizer Application Rates for Corn

Page 13: PotashCorp - Morgan Stanley Global Chemicals Conference - November 15, 2012

Source: Fertecon, CRU, FAI, PotashCorp

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

2012F0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0 Potash Fertilizer Consumption N:K Ratio

Million Tonnes of K20

Existing Subsidy System Affecting Demand, Inventories and Application Imbalance

India Fertilizer Market Situation

N:K Ratio

2011 2012F0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

Millions Tonnes of KCL

Potash Consumption and Fertility Imbalance Estimated Year-end Inventory

Page 14: PotashCorp - Morgan Stanley Global Chemicals Conference - November 15, 2012

Other Asia Market UpdateStrong Consumption Expected to Pull Year-end Inventories Lower

Source: Fertecon, FMB

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012F

0

1

2

3

4

5

Chart TitleMillion Tonnes K20

2011 2012F0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Millions Tonnes of KCL

Potash Consumption Estimated Year-end Inventory

Page 15: PotashCorp - Morgan Stanley Global Chemicals Conference - November 15, 2012

Our Opportunity and Potential

Page 16: PotashCorp - Morgan Stanley Global Chemicals Conference - November 15, 2012

Source: Fertecon, PotashCorp

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012F

2014F

2016F

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Million Tonnes KCl

World Potash ShipmentsLong-term Trend Supports Rising Demand

Future growth scenarios based on long-term trend of approximately three percent CAGR

Page 17: PotashCorp - Morgan Stanley Global Chemicals Conference - November 15, 2012

Source: Fertecon, CRU, Public Filings, PotashCorp

2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F0

1

2

3

4

5

6 POT Other NA Other

Million Tonnes KCl

PotashCorp Represents Majority of New Capability Coming Online

Global Potash Operational Capability Changes*

* Estimated annual achievable production level from existing operations; announced probable and possible projects; assuming typical ramp-up periods for new capacity. Probable and possible projects based on PotashCorp’s view of project probabilities.

** Global operational capability for 2012 is estimated at approximately 62-63mmt

Page 18: PotashCorp - Morgan Stanley Global Chemicals Conference - November 15, 2012

Source: IPNI, DTN, USDA, Bloomberg, PotashCorp, Company Filings

Q1-09

Q2-09

Q3-09

Q4-09

Q1-10

Q2-10

Q3-10

Q4-10

Q1-11

Q2-11

Q3-11

Q4-11

Q1-12

Q2-12

Q3-12

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800Fertilizer Feed & Industrial

PotashCorp Average Realized Sales Price

Exposure to Industrial and Feed Products Providing Greater Stability

Phosphate Product Pricing and Product Mix

PotashCorp Mosaic*0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Industrial & Feed Fertilizer

2012 YTD Product Mix

US$/tonne

As of October 30, 2012 * Mosaic’s percentage based on last three fiscal quarter’s feed sales volume relative to total phosphate sales volume.

Page 19: PotashCorp - Morgan Stanley Global Chemicals Conference - November 15, 2012

Source: PotashCorp

2011 2012F 2013F0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5 Trinidad Augusta Lima Geismar

Million Tonnes

Increasing Capacity in 2012 and 2013 Will Add Gross Margin Potential

PotashCorp Annual Ammonia Capacity

As of October 30, 2012

Page 20: PotashCorp - Morgan Stanley Global Chemicals Conference - November 15, 2012

Source: IPNI, DTN, USDA, Bloomberg, PotashCorp

Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-120

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800Urea (FOB NOLA) Ammonia (CFR Tampa)

Spot Price

PotashCorp Benefiting From Current Ammonia Pricing

Nitrogen Product Pricing and Product Mix

40%

23%

37%

Ammonia Urea Solutions/NA/AN

2012 YTD Nitrogen Product Mix

US$/tonne

As of October 30, 2012

Page 21: PotashCorp - Morgan Stanley Global Chemicals Conference - November 15, 2012

Cash Flow Opportunity

Page 22: PotashCorp - Morgan Stanley Global Chemicals Conference - November 15, 2012

Generating Strong Operating Cash Flow Despite Lower Potash Sales

Cash Flow From Operating Activities* (Q3 YTD)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

US$ Millions

Source: PotashCorp

As of October 30, 2012

* See selected Non-IFRS Financial Measures and Reconciliations in our 10-Q at www.potashcorp.com

Page 23: PotashCorp - Morgan Stanley Global Chemicals Conference - November 15, 2012

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

US$ Millions

Major Potash Expansion Program Over 80 Percent Complete

PotashCorp Capital Spending

Source: PotashCorp

* Excluding capitalized interest and major repairs and maintenance

Page 24: PotashCorp - Morgan Stanley Global Chemicals Conference - November 15, 2012

Source: PotashCorp

Focused on Using Free Cash Flow to Drive Long-Term Shareholder Value

Future Cash Flow Priorities

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Potential: Dividend Increases / Share Buybacks / M&A

Potash Projects (announced brownfields)

Nitrogen Projects (announced brownfields)

Page 25: PotashCorp - Morgan Stanley Global Chemicals Conference - November 15, 2012

Dividend More Than Six-Times That of January 2011 Level

PotashCorp Dividend Per Share*

Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012$0.00

$0.05

$0.10

$0.15

$0.20

$0.25

$0.03

$0.07 $0.07 $0.07 $0.07

$0.14 $0.14

$0.21

US$ Per Share

* Dividends declared each quarter

Source: Bloomberg

As of October 30, 2012

Page 26: PotashCorp - Morgan Stanley Global Chemicals Conference - November 15, 2012

Source: PotashCorp

Focused on Using Free Cash Flow to Drive Long-Term Shareholder Value

Historical Cash Flow Deployment

Opportunity Capital

$7.6 Billion since 2003

5-Year Average CFR1 = 24.3%

Equity Investments

$2.0 Billion since 1998

Current Market Value2 = $8.9 billionContributions from Investments3 = $2.2 billion

Share Repurchases

$6.3 Billion since 1999

Average purchase price = $26/shareCurrent share price2 = $39/share

Dividend Payments

$1.2 Billion since 2002

Now 6x higher than January 2011 dividend

1 CFR = Cash Flow Return (see selected Non-IFRS Financial Measures and Reconciliations in our Annual Report available at www.potashcorp.com)2 As at November 12, 20123 Proceeds from investments include dividends and share of equity earnings from original purchase date to Sept 30, 2012

Page 27: PotashCorp - Morgan Stanley Global Chemicals Conference - November 15, 2012

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