POSTPONEMENT OF FIRST CHILD –NEW REALITY FOR RUSSIA

Sergei V. ZakharovInstitute of Demography

State University ‘Higher School of Economics’Research Leader of Russian GGS

szakharov@hse.ru

First Birth by Partnership Status in Russia

Distribution of Women by Maternal Status by age 30, birth cohorts, %

1930-1934 1950-1954 1970-1974

No birth 8 4 10

Have at least 1 child

92 96 90

100 100 100

First Births by Formal Marital Status of Mother having a child by age 30, birth cohorts, %

1930-1934 1950-1954 1970-1974

Marital 77 82 73

Non-marital 23 18 27

All 100 100 100

First Births by Partnership Status of Mothers having a child by age 30, birth cohorts, %

1930-1934 1950-1954 1970-1974

Before the 1st partnership 4 4 4

Within the 1st partnership 85 90 88

Within the 2nd+ partnerships 0 2 3

Out of partnership(not including before the 1st partnership)

11 4 5

All 100 100 100

First Births: Out of Any Partnership (left panel), and Out of Marriage (right panel) as per cent of Total First Births Given by age 25 and age 30, female birth cohorts

First births out of any partnership

02468

101214161820

- 192

9

1930

-193

4

1935

-193

9

1940

-194

4

1945

-194

9

1950

-195

4

1955

-195

9

1960

-196

4

1965

-196

9

1970

-197

4

1975

-197

9

Birth cohort

Per c

ent

by 25

by 30

Non-marital First Births

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

- 192

9

1930

-193

4

1935

-193

9

1940

-194

4

1945

-194

9

1950

-195

4

1955

-195

9

1960

-196

4

1965

-196

9

1970

-197

4

1975

-197

9

Birth cohort

Per c

ent

by 25

by 30

CHANGE IN PROTOGENETIC INTERVAL: AGE OF MOTHER, BIRTH COHORT

AND FIRST PARTNERSHIP COHORT

Mean Protogenetic Interval for Mothers Who Had the First Birth by Age 25 and 30, female birth cohorts (truncated for 0-60 months since beginning of the 1st partnership)

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

1930-1934

1935-1939

1940-1944

1945-1949

1950-1954

1955-1959

1960-1964

1965-1969

1970-1974

1975-1979

Birth cohort

Mean

pro

tog

en

eti

c in

terv

al, m

on

ths

by 25

by 30

Cumulative Percentage of Partnerships which Gave a First Birth by the Time since the Start of the First Partnership, first partnership cohorts.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1949-1953

1954-1958

1959-1963

1964-1968

1969-1973

1974-1978

1979-1983

1984-1988

1989-1993

1994-1998

1st partnership cohorts

Per

cen

t

by 1st year

by 1.5th year

by 2nd year

by 3rd year

by 5th year

Cumulative Percentage of Partnerships which Gave a First Birth by the Time Relative to the Start of the First Partnership: 1954-1958, 1974-1978, 1994-1998 first partnership cohorts.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

-6 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60

Months since 1st partnership

Per

cen

t

1954-1958 1974-1978 1994-1998

Cumulative Percentage of Partnerships which Gave a First Birth by the 7th month since the Start of the First Partnership, first partnership cohorts.First birth by 7th month since partnership

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

-1949 1949-1953

1954-1958

1959-1963

1964-1968

1969-1973

1974-1978

1979-1983

1984-1988

1989-1993

1994-1998

First partnership cohorts

Per

cen

t

Pre-Partnership Conceptions realized in the First Birth Before and Within 7 months since the Start of the First Partnership, female birth cohorts, by age

25 and 30. By age 25

0

5

10

15

20

25

-192

9

1930

-193

4

1935

-193

9

1940

-194

4

1945

-194

9

1950

-195

4

1955

-195

9

1960

-196

4

1965

-196

9

1970

-197

4

1975

-197

9

Birth cohorts

Per

cen

t 0-7mPAR1

beforePAR1

by age 30

0

5

10

15

20

25

-192

9

1930

-193

4

1935

-193

9

1940

-194

4

1945

-194

9

1950

-195

4

1955

-195

9

1960

-196

4

1965

-196

9

1970

-197

4

Birth cohort

Per

cen

t

0-7mPAR1

beforePAR1

Percentage of Conceptions realized in the First Birth by time of Conception Occurrence, partnership cohorts.

Direct marriages

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

-1949 1949-1953

1954-1958

1959-1963

1964-1968

1969-1973

1974-1978

1979-1983

1984-1988

1989-1993

1994-1998

Partnership cohort

before Parthership Immediately at start With some delay

All partnerships

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

-1949 1949-1953

1954-1958

1959-1963

1964-1968

1969-1973

1974-1978

1979-1983

1984-1988

1989-1993

1994-1998

Partnership cohort

before Parthership Immediately at start With some delay

First Births by Time Relative to the Start of the First Partnership, partnership cohorts (truncated

to 5 years since start of the 1st PAR) 1954-58 1964-68 1974-78 1984-88 1994-98

Before partnership

4 5 4 6 7

0-7 months

7 11 15 16 19

8-12 months

42 34 36 36 19

13-36 months

39 43 38 38 43

37-59 months

8 7 7 4 12

Total 100 100 100 100 100

PROTOGENETIC INTERVAL BY TYPE OF SETTLEMENT

Percentage of Women Who Have First Births by age 30, and within 8-12 months since the Start of the First Partnership, birth cohorts (first births within 5 years of partnership=100)

Within 8-12 months of the 1st Partnership, By age 30

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1945-1949

1950-1954

1955-1959

1960-1964

1965-1969

1970-1974

Birth cohort

Per

cen

t

Moscow+SPb

Oblast Centers

Other cities

PGT+villages

Percentage of Women Who Have First Births by age 30, and within 13-59 months since the Start of the First Partnership, birth cohorts (first births within 5 years of partnership=100)

Within 13-59 months of the 1st Partnership, By age 30

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1945-1949

1950-1954

1955-1959

1960-1964

1965-1969

1970-1974

Birth cohort

Per

cen

t

Moscow+SPb

Oblast Centers

Other cities

PGT+villages

Percentage of Women Who Have First Births by age 25, and within 0-7 months since the Start of the First Partnership, birth cohorts (first births within 5 years of partnership=100)

Within 0-7 months of the 1st Partnership, By age 25

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1945-1949

1950-1954

1955-1959

1960-1964

1965-1969

1970-1974

1975-1979

Birth cohort

Per

cen

t

Moscow+SPb

Oblast Centers

Other cities

PGT+villages

PROTOGENETIC INTERVAL BY EDUCATIONAL LEVEL

Percentage of Women Who Have the First Birth by Age 25 by the Time Relative to the Start of the First Partnership: Low Education (left panel), and High Education (right panel), birth cohorts (total First Births by age 25 = 100) 1st birth by 25, educ=low

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1945-1949

1950-1954

1955-1959

1960-1964

1965-1969

1970-1974

1975-1979

%

before PAR1

0-7m PAR1

8-12m PAR1

13-59m PAR1

1st birth by 25, educ=high

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1945-1949

1950-1954

1955-1959

1960-1964

1965-1969

1970-1974

1975-1979

%

before PAR1

0-7m PAR1

8-12m PAR1

13-59m PAR1

Percentage of Women Who Have the First Birth by Age 30, and by the Time Relative to the Start of the First Partnership: Low Education (left panel), and High Education (right panel), birth cohorts (total First Births by age 30 = 100)1st birth by 30, educ=low

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1945-1949

1950-1954

1955-1959

1960-1964

1965-1969

1970-1974

%

before PAR1

0-7m PAR1

8-12m PAR1

13-59m PAR1

1st birth by 30, educ=high

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1945-1949

1950-1954

1955-1959

1960-1964

1965-1969

1970-1974

%

before PAR1

0-7m PAR1

8-12m PAR1

13-59m PAR1

CONLUSIONS AND DISCUSSION (1) In Russia, the likelihood of first birth continues to be

high. Almost 90% of first births occur in the first union. The share of first births that occur out of any

partnership (to single mothers) was for a long time decreasing, while it has somewhat risen most recently.

A fast growth of non-marital fertility can be mostly attributed to the fact that an increasing number of partners decide not to register their union officially.

CONLUSIONS AND DISCUSSION (2) After a long period of downward tendency, the

average protogenetic interval shows a strong upward trend.

The growth of the average protogenetic interval could have been even greater provided that the number of births occurring during the first 6 months since the beginning of the partnership had not continued growing (i.e. births as outcomes of pregnancies that had taken place before partners began to live together).

CONLUSIONS AND DISCUSSION (3) Delay of first births is occurring more

intensively in the vanguard social strata. In Russia, the current situation is dual:

on the one hand, pregnancy, increasingly frequently, leads partners to start living together;

on the other hand, partners living together tend to increase control over fertility during the first years of their union.

CONLUSIONS AND DISCUSSION (4) The key conclusion: beginning a

partnership, and getting married in particular, starts a procreation cycle increasingly less frequently.

Russia apparently remains a heterogeneous population as regards the usage of modern methods of contraception and family planning strategies in general.