Post-Kyoto: Copenhagen

• Copenhagen Accord– Leading up to the meeting – developing country

arguments:• Developed countries must “take the lead”• NAMAs must be non-binding

– U.S. argument:• No China/India, no U.S.

Post-Kyoto: Copenhagen Accord

• Agreements– Stabilize concentrations at a level that will prevent

dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system• Increase should be below 2 degrees Celsius

– Agree that the countries need deep cuts in global emissions – and that emissions must peak as soon as possible • i.e., emissions must stop increasing

Post-Kyoto: Copenhagen Accord

• Agree to increased action on adaptation, especially in least developed countries, small islands, and Africa

Post-Kyoto: Copenhagen Accord

• Emissions limitations– Annex-I Parties: economy wide targets by 2020 – to

be submitted later– Non-Annex I Parties: NAMAs – to be submitted later

• REDD • More money - $30 billion 2010-2012/ $100 billion

per year by 2020• Technology mechanism• Assess Accord by 2015

Post-Kyoto: Copenhagen Accord

• Examples of Annex I commitments– Australia – reduce emissions by up to 25% below

2000 baseline if reach agreement/ 5% if not– EU – 20% if no post-KP; 30% if post-KP agreement– Japan – 25% if all major economies participate– U.S. – 17% below 2005 baseline

Post-Kyoto: Copenhagen Accord

• Examples of non-Annex I commitments– Brazil – reduced deforestation; increase biofuels,

increase alternative energy– China – lower emissions per GDP (carbon

intensity) by 40-45%– India – reduce intensity by 20-25%– S. Africa – 34% reduction based on business as

usual

Intensity Targets

Headroom Targets

Post-Kyoto: After Copenhagen

• Meetings in Cancun, Mexico, and Durban, South Africa– Still unclear what will happen– Seems like the Kyoto Protocol will be “extended,”

but it is unclear how or what the targets and timetables will look like

Post-Kyoto: After Copenhagen – What about the U.S. and China?

Post-Kyoto: After Copenhagen – What about the U.S. and China?

Sectoral and Domestic Efforts

• Sectoral approach– Electricity– Transportation– Agriculture– Residential– Waste management

Energy Efficiency

Methane Capture

Transportation

Renewable energy

Renewable energy + transportation

Even in the United States . . .

• Fuel economy standards• New regulatory requirements for coal plants

and other facilities• Investments in renewable energy

What do you think?

• Should parties continue to focus on an international regime?

• Is it a good idea to have each Party set its own emissions reductions requirements?

• Should people interested in climate change mitigation focus on domestic or even local actions?

• How much would you be willing to pay for emissions reductions?