Post-Covid19 Urban and Regional

Development: Strategic Tasks and Trends

Arturo G. Corpuz

PIEP

7 November 2020

Post-Covid19 Urban and Regional Development:

Strategic Tasks and Trends

• Towards and soon after the end of the pandemic,

starting with cities.

• Extended post-Covid19 view.

https://www.lindahall.org/joseph-bazalgette/ https://i.pinimg.com/originals/b3/dd/5d/b3dd5d1108e9ba7b667dd89972c43472.jpg

Thames embankment (London)Response to cholera epidemic, provided

sewers, subway, flood protection,

pedestrian walkways

• Cities have always been shaped

or influenced by pandemics and

disasters.

Subsidized public

housing (NY):Built to prevent

epidemics in

crowded, substandard

tenements in 1930s. (Nevius 2020)

Creation of Hyderabad in 1591:To avoid epidemics and lack of water

supply. (Nanisetti 2020)

Coastal Plan

Inland Plan

1

5

715

16

Hispanic Urban Plans

According to the Ordinances of

1573 (Reed 1978)

1 Plaza Major

2 Plaza

3 Street with arcade

4 Cathedral

5 Hospital: non-contagious diseases

6 Monastery or convent

7 Hospital: contagious diseases

8 Custom house

9 Arsenal

10 Cabildo (tribunal)

11 Commons

12 Pasture land

13 Irrigated land

14 Cultivated land

15 Slaughterhouses

16 Tanneries

17 Fisheries

18 Parish church and convent

1

5

7

15 16

Prevailing

Wind

Epidemics in colonial

Philippines caused/related to:

• Improvements in transport

• Emergence of a sex trade

• Crop specialization

• Extensive changes in land

management (De Bevoise 1995)

Pandemics are here to stay.

https://www.pinterest.ph/pin/414331234463083073/https://www.google.com/search?q=epidemics+in+the+philippines&rlz=1C1CHBF_enPH862PH862&sxsrf=ALeKk03UMLtXZVIPYUmZGBwEkCf1UcdVkA:1604665446077&source

=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwj27pXP9O3sAhWIyIsBHXovAw8Q_AUoAXoECAYQAw&biw=1536&bih=754&dpr=1.25#imgrc=KbMDMLSAwiBdIM&imgdii=qXqtilqs-qel-M

• How should we approach the planning and building of

cities, anticipating future pandemics, post-Covid19?

1 Potential economic losses resulting from pandemics justify large

investments to prevent or mitigate them.

1H 2020 impact of Covid-19 on:

▪ GDP = P1.6T

▪ Loss sales = P5.2T (NEDA Oct 2020)

2 Its not just about making cities pandemic-resistant but, more

broadly, how they can thrive in the competitive global

environment and contribute to national/regional development.

• How should we approach the planning and

building of cities, anticipating

future pandemics, post-Covid19?

3 The essence of cities is density.▪ Positive: scale and agglomeration economies (e.g.

15% premium as city population doubles)

▪ Negative: crime, pollution, disease, pandemics, etc.

▪ Successful cities maximize positive and minimize

negative.

4 Objective: derive the economic benefits of

density while reducing threats of pandemics

arising from density.

https://www.visitphilippines.org/discover-it/cebu-city/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Davao_City#/media/File:DavaoSkyline.jpghttps://www.robertharding.com/preview/1113-92761/skyline-makati-city-manila-philippines-asia/

Global Health Security Index

Ranking, Top rank, ASEAN

6, 2019 (100=highest)

Rank Country Score

1 USA 83.5

6 Thailand 73.2

18 Malaysia 62.2

24 Singapore 58.7

30 Indonesia 56.6

50 Vietnam 49.1

53 Philippines 47.6

Source: GHS Index 2019

• We have learned (from distant and recent past

experiences) to focus on the following:

1 Build up and reform the

healthcare system.

▪ Ability to prevent, detect,

isolate, treat, recovery

▪ Hard and soft

infrastructure

Key sectors

▪ Public transport and logistics

▪ Digital connectivity

▪ Building/facility design

▪ Affordable housing

▪ Accessible parks, open spaces

▪ Urban sanitation/utilities

▪ Food security

▪ Renewable energy

2 Safely eliminate/reduce the

need for physical distancing

(density).

▪ By managing minimum

requirements

▪ By compensating through

interventions (e.g. PPEs)

▪ By overcoming distance

(through digital technology)3 Rebuild and reform

(Never waste a crisis.)

• We have learned (from distant and recent past

experiences) to focus on the following:

Rebuild and Reform• Extends well beyond the pandemic

• Can be complex and multisectoral

Example: Affordable housing (to replace squatter/slum housing)

• Ultimately a problem of low income and not of

housing

• Pre-Covid issue, e.g.:

Apple’s Shifting Supply Chain Creates Boomtowns in Rural Vietnam Bloomberg Technology 2020

Affordable land

Land conversion

Infrastructure, service support, etc.

Employment opportunities

Investments (manufacturing)

FDI competitiveness

▪ Public transport and logistics• Single most important element of a productive city; with or

without a pandemic, cities are not feasible without mass

transit.

• Still a long way to go.

▪ Digital connectivity• E-commerce, e-education, work from home, etc.

• Indispensable; especially critical during pandemics.

• Promising recent developments although still a lot to do.

▪ Building/facility design• Incorporate anti-pandemic measures, e.g. natural vent,

disinfection, no-contact activities, WFH provisions, flexibility of

use.

• Regulatory and market-driven.

https://www.ns-businesshub.com/technology/5g-rural-internet/https://wheels.com.ph/centro-launches-anti-covid-19-dividers-for-uv/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/06/03/world-restaurants-coronavirus-adaptation/

▪ Accessible and quality parks and public spaces

https://explora.ph/note/234/la-mesa-ecopark-attractions

*Author’s estimate, 2020.; publicly accessible parks, open spaces, courtyards, sports and recreation spaces

(uncovered, min 500sqm)

Parks

(hectares)

Hectares/

1000 pop

Metro Manila 1,290* 0.10

HLURB reqmt 7,082 0.55

HK Urban (2018) 2,800 0.22

HK (2018) 81,700 6.34

Singapore (2011) 84,990 6.60

In Metro Manila, we need

57+ sqkm of new parks/

open spaces to comply

with HLURB standard:

• Recover, improve and

maintain public easements

and ROWs.

• Improve access and quality of

existing parks.

• Encourage development of

publicly accessible private

parks.

• We have a good idea of what we need to do; a lot of it is

catching up on things we should have done in the past.

• Overall, we have a long way to go.

http://www.eurocontrol.int/sites/default/files/illustration/airports-homepage.jpghttp://progressbangladesh.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Power-transmission-line.jpghttps://businessmirror.com.ph/2018/03/18/when-can-commuters-find-light-at-the-end-of-the-mrt-3-tunnel/ https://healthysd.gov/screens-not-for-babies/

https://www.123rf.com/photo_122111699_stock-illustration-philippines-5g-network-industrial-illustration-big-cellular-tower-or-mast-on-modern-background-with-.htmlhttp://www.dmcihomesresidences.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/original-20161018141240.jpg

• What can we expect in the next decades?

• What are some fundamental trends that are likely to

drive or significantly influence our plans and

developments?

▪ Urbanization will continue and stabilize (~70%) towards end of 21st

century.By 2045/2050:

• Urban pop could increase by 70% to

87M (60% of total pop).

• Land area occupied by urban pop

could double or even triple. (Author’s

estimate.)

• More land conversion is inevitable.

• Consider density vs conversion

tradeoffs (including pandemic

threats).

▪ Growth of core cities of metros will

decline, but functionally (i.e. labor

market), the metros will continue to

expand. E.g.:

• Angeles-Metro Manila-Batangas City

• Carcar-Cebu City-Danao

• Digos-Davao City-Tagum

• Laguindingan-Cag de Oro-Villanueva

• Sibulan-Dumaguete-Bacong

More complex (inter- and intra-LGU)

planning and institutional implications

(affecting pandemic and DRR measures.)

▪ Large regional centers will continue to grow faster

than Metro Manila and other cities.

▪ Increasing number of metro areas, containing an

increasing proportion of the total population (42%

as of 2015).

Metro Manila

Regional Centers

Top 15 Metro/Urban Areas

Annual Pop Growth Rate,

2010-2015 (%)Source: Derived from PSA Census 2015

1 Metro Manila 1.67

2 M Dasmarinas 3.51

3 M Cebu 2.22

4 M Calamba 3.53

5 M Antipolo 2.20

6 M Davao 2.37

7 M Malolos 2.13

8 M Angeles 2.73

9 Zamboanga City 1.32

10 M Cagayan de Oro 2.44

11 M Bacolod 1.61

12 M Lipa 4.00

13 M Iloilo 1.54

14 M San Mateo 5.04

15 General Santos 2.01

Improving the quality

of density will become

even more important

(especially vs

pandemics and other

disasters).

▪ There will be winners and losers as

technology, markets and geopolitics interact.

https://www.kearney.com/strategy-and-top-line-transformation/article?/a/a-question-of-talent-how-

human-capital-will-determine-the-next-global-leaders

Large cities with the richest

exchanges of ideas among highly

educated workers enjoy the highest

returns. (Hendrickson and Muro 2020)

Top Rank and Asian Cities in Top 40 Global Startup Ecosystems 1 Silicon Valley 4 Beijing 8 Shanghai 15 Tokyo 17 Singapore 20 Seoul 22 Shenzhen 26 Bangalore 28 Hangzhou 29 Hong Kong 36-40 Delhi Source: The Global Startup Ecosystem Report 2020

Top Asian Cities in 100 Emerging Global Startup Ecosystems 1 Mumbai 2 Jakarta 5 Guangzhou 11 Kuala Lumpur 16 Istanbul 21-30 Chengdu Taipei Wuxi 31-40 Manila

Nanjing Xiamen

51-60 Bangkok Chennai

Wuhan 71-80 Hyderabad Ho Chi Minh City Pune 91-100 Osaka

Attract talent and spur innovation through

cities with good quality density:

Convergence + Collision = Innovation (Woo 2020)

The internet is reinforcing concentration instead of dispersion.

“Winner takes most.”

(Even during the pandemic.)

▪ Regional planning will be more technically

relevant . . .

• Pandemics and other disasters

• Connectivity and markets

• Shared services and infrastructure

• Protection of prime agricultural and environmentally

critical lands

• Climate change

. . . But corresponding institutional structures have

to be put in place.

▪ Urban/regional planning needs to be

more influential in decision-making.

Lessons from the pandemic:

1. Location matters.

UP Center for Environmental Informatics

▪ Urban/regional planning needs to be

more influential in decision-making.

Lessons from the pandemic:

1. Location matters.

2. Use of science (evidence-based) and

economics (tradeoffs) increases

credibility and greater involvement in

decision-making that matters.

StD = Standard

Distances

Covid-19 Infections

• 14April-06May infections evenly distributed relative to centroid.

• Suggests lockdown “froze” the distribution (not the infections).

▪ Urban/regional planning needs to be

more influential in decision-making.

Lessons from the pandemic:

1. Location matters.

2. Use of science (evidence-based) and

economics (tradeoffs) increases credibility

and greater involvement in decision-making

that matters.

3. Communication is critical (with decision-

makers and the public).

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/05/19/trump-coronavirus-rally-open-up-lock-down-hydroxychloroquine-266476 http://thephilippinepost.com/pres-duterte-urges-covid-19-survivors-to-donate-blood/

▪ Urban/regional planning needs to be

more influential in decision-making.

Lessons from the pandemic:

1. Location matters.

2. Use of science (evidence-based) and

economics (tradeoffs) increases credibility

and greater involvement in decision-making

that matters.

3. Communication is critical.

4. You can’t do it all by yourself. Tap and

recognize the experts.

https://www.rappler.com/nation/magalong-says-contact-tracing-champion-every-lgu-urgently-needed

Lead from behind(Being non-political is a political choice)

▪ Urban/regional planning needs to be

more influential in decision-making.

Lessons from the pandemic:

1. Location matters.

2. Use of science (evidence-based) and

economics (tradeoffs) increases credibility

and greater involvement in decision-making

that matters.

3. Communication is critical.

4. You can’t do it all by yourself. Tap and

recognize the experts.

Thank you