Post 2015: The Bellagio Summit - Mukesh Kapila initiative... · 2013. 3. 14. · • The Bellagio...
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Post 2015: The Bellagio Summit How we got here and where we are heading Professor Mukesh Kapila
Transcript of Post 2015: The Bellagio Summit - Mukesh Kapila initiative... · 2013. 3. 14. · • The Bellagio...
Post 2015: The Bellagio Summit
How we got here and where we are heading
Professor Mukesh Kapila
Consortium Partners • Center for International Governance Innovation
(Canada) • Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil)• International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent
Societies (Geneva/Global) • International Poverty Reduction Center (China) • Korea Development Institute (Republic of Korea)• Manchester University (United Kingdom)• Tata Institute of Social Sciences (India)• University of Pretoria (South Africa)
With thanks also to Rockefeller Foundation
Founding co-directors of Bellagio Initiative
•Mukesh Kapila: formerly in senior positions at UK DFID, UN, WHO, IFRC, and now professor at Manchester University. Involved in the original framing of current MDGs •Barry Carin: former Deputy Assistant Minister in Canadian Government, Ambassador, G7/G8 sous Sherpa; now adjunct professor University of Victoria, and senior fellow at the Center for International Governance Innovation
The spirit behind our process
• Set up as a “global good”• “Open source” : share and use freely what you
put in and take out • Institutional partners represent key diverse
perspectives from around the world• Individuals invited for their personal knowledge
and expertise • Informal space for all – UN, academics,
governments, activists, civil society to talk as equals
Storyline (mid 2009 – Feb 2013
• In the beginning…• MDGs: strengths and weaknesses • Post 2015 development paradigm • The Bellagio proposal: post-2015 goals • Measurement challenges• Insights from Geneva, Paris, Beijing, Seoul, Pretoria,
Mumbai, Rio consultations (Focus in/around BRICS)
Revised One World Goals: final report and presentation to UN in New York and IFIs in Washington DC Nov 2012Final stocktake Bellagio Feb 2013
In the beginning…• Assess original MDGs’ strengths and
weaknesses • Integrate the voices of the poor into the
post-2015 development paradigm• Expert meetings to produce framework• Use e-platform, technology, and consult
national civil society (incl. IFRC National Societies)
• Deliver findings to decision-makers
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Our premise is that if development is to be sustainable, the voices of the poor must be fully integrated in the post 2015 development paradigm. The associated vision that guides this development must be an inclusive reflection of opinions around the world, which may be very diverse. Policies and practices informed by community perspectives will then have a better chance of being universally owned and advanced. The general objective is to ensure that future development policy is designed and owned at the community level. The voices of the poor, who have the largest stake in development, must be given particular weight to ensure the agenda is both realistic and relevant.
Current MDGs: Strengths
• Raised priority of development• Accelerated global poverty reduction • Generated popular support, political buy-in • Increased investments and progress in
specific development area• “Social focus”; health and education• Improved data on poverty
Current MDGs: weaknesses• Lack equity considerations – rising inequality• One size fits all• Left out growth, infrastructure, failed states good
governance, job creation, security…• Restricted vision of fundamental values (definitions
of “development” and “poverty”• Lack of accountability• Too few outcome targets and indicators• No local ownership• Ignored inter-linkages between goals
Development beyond 2015
•Shift outlook from just “development” to whole “world”
•Requires a new paradigm while reaffirming the vision in the Millennium Declaration
•Tactical reasons to be as aspirational as possible (“raise our sights”)
The sustainable “one world” paradigm
“enabling everyone to take responsibility to lead productive lives with dignity, and to realise their fundamental human rights while fulfilling their obligations to relate fairly and respectfully to others and sharing planetary resources responsibly without compromising the needs of future generations”
Post 2015 framework
• Global Goals• For each goal, Global Targets expressing
overall impact, contributed to by countries selecting their own National Targets
• With overall progress assessed by a package of Global Indicators and national progress by National Indicators selected from within globally approved list
Clarifying the terms
Goals are where we aspire to eventually end up i.e. the final impact.Targets are the level of ambition the world and individual countries set themselves i.e. specific results to achieve over a defined time-scale Indicators are the measures by which progress towards targets is measured
Goal –setting: a fine balance
AspirationalComprehensiveness
ComplexityUniversality
Ends
MeasurableConciseness
SimplicityCountry-specificity
Means
Selection of Goals
• May reflect already made agreements, and for which
• Norms may already exist• Or there are agreed standards • Or there are general accepted principles • Span “individual” and “collective”
Expressed in POSITIVE language and OUTCOME oriented
The importance of measurement• “Not everything that counts can be counted.. Not
everything that can be counted counts”
• “Tell me what you’re going to measure; and I’ll tell you how I’m going to behave.”
• “… without solid information we cannot measure where we are and what needs to be done…. If the world cannot get the right numbers, it cannot come out with the right solutions”.
• Potential post 2015 goals needs a consensus on “smart” indicators to measure progress.
• Refine options for “best” indicators for the goals that are finally agreed
Challenges re Indicators• Be accessible to lay reader• Measure outputs, not inputs• Comprehensive - reflecting whole sector
outcomes• Sensitive to potential behaviour response• Direct measures, not indices• Avoid perception-based measures• Beware of process indicators• Info on disaggregation & distribution
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Cost considerations; data timeliness; data reliability; multi sources
Disaggregation BY
Gender
Economic group (Income bands)
Urban/rural
Subnational admin units
Minority or other specific vulnerable groups
Presenter
Presentation Notes
There should be a minimum for everyone- perhaps the poverty line, which differs in each country. One suggestion is to select a target percentage of people to reach half the median income in each country. Measure four dimensions: opportunity, substantive nature, equality and social protection.
And thus emerged 12 candidate One World Goals (OWG)
Individual endowments essential for achieving full human potential
Protecting and promoting collective human capital
Effective provision of global public goods
Presenter
Presentation Notes
See the accompanying paper setting out the goal statements. Each will have an expanded description of scope i.e. what it includes and excludes.
ONE WORLD GOALS
Presenter
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A debate on the optimal number of goals the world will decision makers will be able to digest.
From MDG to OWGMDG OWGMDG 1 OWG 1, 2MDG 2 OWG 3MDG 3 OWG 6MDG 4,5,6 OWG 4MDG 7 OWG 10MDG 8 OWG (8), 11, 12
plusOWG 5 (security)OWG 7 (disasters)OWG 8 (connectivity)OWG 9 (civil and political rights)
Presenter
Presentation Notes
So building strongly on the MDGs
Proposed Timescale
• Span a generation i.e. 25 years:2015 - 2040
• Reviews at 5 yearly intervals when indicators and targets can be adjusted
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Pros and cons – short and long-term thinking
Our consultations
What we heard and learnt…
Background Paper after Geneva and Bellagio
• Express many dimensions of wellbeing, but limit # of targets
• Targets should combine:-Comprehensiveness with conciseness-Complexity with simplicity-Principles with measurability-Universality with country-specificity-Ends with means-Ambition and achievability
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Global and national targets Ends with means – specify destination yet spell out journey for getting there.
Paris Insights
• Refined thinking & indicator menu• Input to large debate on post-2015 -
Beyond 2015 and UN conducting consultations
• Focus on: targets, indicators, and measurement issues
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Since the initial Geneva meeting, we have maintained our focus on goals, targets, and indicators so as to avoid over-politicization and make substantive progress. Our premise is that aspirational statements are useless without metrics, that one cannot have any sensible discussion on targets if we are unable to measure progress in agreed areas. We must be clear on practical ways to measure progress in agreed areas. we decided to switch focus to targets, indicators, metrics - EVERYONE else is working on context etc. and we wanted to add value. We are “ technocratic”. - we know there is another debate going on... ���The April 9-11, 2012 Paris meeting was tasked with assessing the potential effectiveness of indicators to underpin targets for each of twelve goals that had emerged from our previous work. Over the past eighteen months, the Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI) and the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) examined the current literature assessing the Millennium Development Goals, and hosted two meetings with experts and civil society representatives. Our discussions included an overview of the MDGs’ progress to date, their strengths and weaknesses as a framework, the changing context of poverty, and the criteria for a post-2015 framework. In this process, we surveyed the research to date and familiarized ourselves with others’ work (see previous meeting reports from Bellagio and Geneva).
Beijing Insights• Defining Poverty (debates on $ per day levels).• Develop specific targets/indicators for different
countries and regions - current universal approach inappropriate
• Given concerns on inequality, prefer measures of “poverty gap” reduction rather than share of poorest quintile.
• Indicators for social protection (e.g. pension rate)• Disaggregate by gender, economic group,
urban/rural, subnational admin units, and minority or specific vulnerable groups
Presenter
Presentation Notes
There should be a minimum for everyone- perhaps the poverty line, which differs in each country. One suggestion is to select a target percentage of people to reach half the median income in each country. Measure four dimensions: opportunity, substantive nature, equality and social protection.
Seoul Insights
• Must address risk that “Global goals deemphasize focus on the poorest countries”
• Other candidate goals: secondary & tertiary education; global financial system; human rights; urbanization; skill development; anti- corruption; tax evasion; land mine clearance.
• Must address equitable access
Pretoria Insights
• Significant concerns re diverting attention from current MDGs
• Don’t be captive to existing data sources• Wealth of potential indicators for Health• Paucity of potential indicators for equitable
economic rules, civil rights and global governance
• Emphasize climate change as the environmental sustainability goal
Mumbai insights
• Context is vital; the view from developing countries needs stronger emphasis; South South cooperation
• Capture the multi-dimensions of poverty• Tackling inequalities even more urgent • Quality dimensions of development crucial• Sustainability seen from different sides • Accountability and system reform critical
Rio insights
Awaited:Consultation on 6 Sept 2012
Basic Structure proposed by UN Report
Matching Bellagio One World Goals…
Human RightsEquality
SustainabilityPeace & Security
Violence and Vulnerability (Goal 5)Political & Civil Rights (Goal 9)Global Governance (Goal 12)
Disaster Reduction (Goal 7)Environmental Sustainability (Goal 10)
Environmental Sustainability
Poverty Reduction (Goal 1)Universal Connectivity (Goal 8)Equitable Economic Rules (Goal 11)
Inclusive Economic Development
Food & Water (Goal 2)Universal Literacy (Goal 3)Healthier Lives (Goal 4)Gender Equality (Goal 6)
Inclusive Social Development
Matching Bellagio One World Goals…
Peace & Security
Violence and Vulnerability (Goal 5)Political & Civil Rights (Goal 9)Global Governance (Goal 12)
Disaster Reduction (Goal 7)Environmental Sustainability (Goal 10)
Environmental Sustainability
Poverty Reduction (Goal 1)Universal Connectivity (Goal 8)Equitable Economic Rules (Goal 11)
Inclusive Economic Development
Food & Water (Goal 2)Universal Literacy (Goal 3)Healthier Lives (Goal 4)Gender Equality (Goal 6)
Inclusive Social Development
Education (Goal)Migration (?)
Some issues still under consideration
Need a a stronger focus on growth
Also deal with •Sanitation •Migration•Urbanisation•Shelter•Infrastructure
Will consider if and how to address in next version
Revised One World Goals
Will be available in September
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Worldmapper.org
