Post-2006 Republican Election Overview

November 24, 2006

GOP faced Major Hurdles

• 42% Bush job approval, 41% Right Track, 33% Congressional job approval

• Historical trends: 31 House, 6 Senate• GOP Senate races outspent by $12m in

Sept/Oct• 45 uncontested Dem seats vs. 10 GOP• War on Terror/Iraq• And…

…Scandals and Late Campaigns!

• 23 House seats and 3 Senate seats touched by scandal

• More than a dozen House seats “caught napping”

The 2006 Vote

• 76million ballots cast – or 40.4% of VAP– Democrats – 39,556,886 or 52%– GOP – 34,776,371 or 48%

Historic Election for Democrats

• Gain 29 House/6 Senate seats• Gain 322 State legislative seats,

including control of 3 states not controlled since 1966

• Largest number of GOP incumbent Senators defeated since 1986

Good News for GOP

• Ohio – Control all State Supreme Court seats and State Auditor

• Florida – 1st consecutive GOP governors since 1870

• Gained state office holders seats in Wisconsin, Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana

• Gained state legislative seats in 10 states

• Decreased registration advantage by 414k in states that register by party

What the Election was…and wasn’t

• Not a repudiation of conservative philosophy

• Not a validation of Democrat agenda

• But it was…a THUMPING– Voters punished Republican

candidates

Did GOP Lose Base Voter in 2006?

• GOP were 36% of voters– 37% in ’04; 40% in ’02; 35% in ’00

• Conservative were 32% of voters– 34% in ’04; 34% in ’02; 29% in ’00

• Candidates gained 91% of GOP vote– 93% in ’04; 92% in ’02; 91% in ’00

• Candidates gained 78% of Cons. Vote– 84% in ’04; 79% in ’02; 81% in 00

Republican National Committee Voter

Program

“Republican efforts made the contest for the Senate closer and likely enabled the Republicans to hold at least 10 seats in the House”James Carville and Stan Greenberg

GOP Ground Game Worked

• 23 House races won by less than 2%Or…

19 races won by less than 5000 votesAnd…

GOP won 13 of those races • A shift of 30,000 votes would mean 6

more GOP seats…out of 76million votes

Why Microtargeting?

In 2000…• 20.6m voters in solid GOP precincts

– 13% of all registered voters

• 26.1m voters in solid Democrat precincts– 16% of all registered voters

• Democrats had 5.5m voters advantage – 3% of all registered voters

What is Microtargeting

• Build National Party voter file– Party registration, vote history,

volunteer and community lists

• Cross with Commercial Marketing lists– Lifestyle traits, consumer behavior

• Overlay with Vote and Issue Survey

MicroTargeting Identifies

• More voters for TURNOUT• Voters on issues for PERSUASION• New voters for REGISTRATION• Target voters for ACTIVATION• And will focus RESOURCES

2008 – Win House with White House

61 Democrat seats won by Bush in 2004

194

214

201

182

134

61

41

38

46

21

8

18

28

40

89

171

162

168

167

191

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

GOP/ GOP GOP/ Dem Dem/ GOP Dem/ Dem