Positive revenue revisions required for a re-rate Freelancer.com … · Freelancer Limited Software...

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Freelancer Limited Software and Services Canaccord Genuity is the global capital markets group of Canaccord Genuity Group Inc. (CF : TSX) The recommendations and opinions expressed in this research report accurately reflect the research analyst's personal, independent and objective views about any and all the companies and securities that are the subject of this report discussed herein. Australian Equity Research 31 January 2017 BUY unchanged PRICE TARGET A$1.40from A$1.85 Price (1-Feb) Ticker A$1.06 FLN-ASX 52-Week Range (A$): 0.99 - 1.83 Market Cap (A$M): 482 Dividend /Shr (AUc): 0.0 Dividend Yield (%) : 0.0 Enterprise Value (A$M): 447 Cash (A$M): 35.1 Long-Term Debt (A$M): 0.0 FYE Dec 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E Sales (A$M) 25.9 38.4 52.765.6Previous - - 54.0 70.9 Gross Profit (A$M) 22.5 33.3 45.5 56.8 EBITDA (A$M) (2.0) (2.0) 0.71.1Previous - - (0.2) 2.4 Net Income Adj (A$M) (1.2) (1.5) 0.20.6Previous - - 0.0 2.2 EPS Adj&Dil (AUc) (0.28) (0.33) 0.050.1Previous - - 0.01 0.5 Net Debt (Cash) (A$M) (20.2) (32.2) (34.8)(42.7)Previous - - (37.0) (45.8) 2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 FLN Source: FactSet Priced intraday 1 February 2017 Owen Humphries | Analyst | Canaccord Genuity (Australia) Ltd. | [email protected] | +61.2.9263.2702 Lowering Target Price Positive revenue revisions required for a re-rate FLN released its 4Q16 quarterly statement with FY16 cash receipts increasing +35% during the period to A$51.8m (FY15: $38.4m FY14 $26.1m, FY13 $18.8m). We suspect FLN FY16 revenues will closely marry its cash receipts figure (CGAu est. $52.7m, prev fcst. $54m) which is broadly in line with our estimates. The group reported FY16 OCF of $4.5m due mainly to the negative working capital nature of the business and not reflective of EBITDA (CGAu est. $0.7m). While not disclosed, we estimate the core Freelancer.com marketplace grew +25% organically during the period. While below historical trend growth, FY16 was impacted by a weak 3Q16 (SEO/infrastructure issues) with the 4Q16 appearing revert to more normal levels (figure 4). The company continues to invest in various funnel optimisation initiatives, new collaboration workflow tools, streamlined membership plans and improvements to its mobile offering (payments, video and group chat etc). When coupled with various other value added initiatives (Robin, etc.), we expect an improvement project conversion rates, average project size and repeat customers to the website. However, as >90% of FLN revenues are sourced offshore (largely USD) a stronger AUD continues to hamper its revenue performance. We estimate the recently acquired non-core Escrow.com business (acq. A$10m) contributed ~A$7m to the FY16 result and just A$2.7m in 2H16. The implementation issues with escrow.com were well flagged last year following various change management issues, restructure of core technology stack and a material reduction in transactions of premium domain names by Chinese buyers. Investment is still required, in our view, with a relaunch of its API and new partnership agreements to swing the division to growth in 2H17. The company reports ~500 FTE's (Jun-16 469, Dec-15 440) with a increasing proportion allocated to product development/growth initiatives. We estimate ~50% of FLN's opex is allocated to growth initiatives ($23m) driving a marginal ROI of >40% (∆gross profit/growth opex t,t-1 ). Notably, a more efficient operating performance was evident in 4Q16 with the group modifying its marketing spend to just ~16% of group revenues (lowest since 2Q15). We expected this to maintain at current levels which aid profitability. However, as the major driver of FLN's revenue growth is projects posted (partially acquired through marketing initiatives) and the subsequent long tail of repeat purchases (>5x), we believe this marketing budget remains low by global standards. We have slightly revised down our FY17E revenue estimates (-7%) following a) deferral of growth for FLN's Escrow.com business into 2H17E (-$1.5m, -2.1%), and b) a number of lower projects posted and higher AUD in FLN's core marketplace (-$2.5m, -5%). We expect the core marketplace to grow at ~28% in FY17E with the primary driver being projects posted and improving conversion rates. Following various modelling adjustments and reduction to our growth forecasts in the medium term, we reduce our price target to A$1.40ps (previously A$1.85ps). Our price target is derived using a DCF methodology (12% disc. rate, 5% TGR). For a stock with negligible earnings in a market where investors are increasingly seeking value stocks, we believe a return to positive revenue revisions is required for the stock to re-rate. For important information, please see the Important Disclosures beginning on page 7 of this document.

Transcript of Positive revenue revisions required for a re-rate Freelancer.com … · Freelancer Limited Software...

Page 1: Positive revenue revisions required for a re-rate Freelancer.com … · Freelancer Limited Software and Services ... normal levels (figure 4). •The company continues to invest in

Freelancer Limited

Software and Services   

Canaccord Genuity is the global capital markets group of Canaccord Genuity Group Inc. (CF : TSX)The recommendations and opinions expressed in this research report accurately reflect the research analyst's personal, independent and objective views about any and allthe companies and securities that are the subject of this report discussed herein.

Australian Equity Research31 January 2017

BUYunchangedPRICE TARGET A$1.40↓from A$1.85Price (1-Feb)Ticker

A$1.06FLN-ASX

52-Week Range (A$): 0.99 - 1.83Market Cap  (A$M): 482Dividend /Shr  (AUc): 0.0Dividend Yield (%)  : 0.0Enterprise Value  (A$M): 447Cash  (A$M): 35.1Long-Term Debt  (A$M): 0.0

FYE Dec 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017ESales  (A$M) 25.9 38.4 52.7↓ 65.6↓

Previous - - 54.0 70.9Gross Profit (A$M) 22.5 33.3 45.5 56.8

EBITDA  (A$M) (2.0) (2.0) 0.7↑ 1.1↓

Previous - - (0.2) 2.4Net Income  Adj (A$M) (1.2) (1.5) 0.2↑ 0.6↓

Previous - - 0.0 2.2EPS  Adj&Dil (AUc) (0.28) (0.33) 0.05↑ 0.1↓

Previous - - 0.01 0.5Net Debt (Cash)  (A$M) (20.2) (32.2) (34.8)↑ (42.7)↑

Previous - - (37.0) (45.8)

2

1.8

1.6

1.4

1.2

1

0.8

Feb-16

Mar-16

Apr-16

May-16

Jun-16

Jul-16

Aug-16

Sep-16

Oct-16

Nov-16

Dec-16

Jan-17

FLN

Source:�FactSet

Priced intraday 1 February 2017 

Owen Humphries | Analyst |  Canaccord Genuity (Australia) Ltd. |  [email protected] | +61.2.9263.2702

Lowering Target Price

Positive revenue revisions required for a re-rate• FLN released its 4Q16 quarterly statement with FY16 cash receipts increasing +35%

during the period to A$51.8m (FY15: $38.4m FY14 $26.1m, FY13 $18.8m). Wesuspect FLN FY16 revenues will closely marry its cash receipts figure (CGAu est.$52.7m, prev fcst. $54m) which is broadly in line with our estimates. The groupreported FY16 OCF of $4.5m due mainly to the negative working capital nature of thebusiness and not reflective of EBITDA (CGAu est. $0.7m).

• While not disclosed, we estimate the core Freelancer.com marketplace grew +25%organically during the period. While below historical trend growth, FY16 was impactedby a weak 3Q16 (SEO/infrastructure issues) with the 4Q16 appearing revert to morenormal levels (figure 4).

• The company continues to invest in various funnel optimisation initiatives, newcollaboration workflow tools, streamlined membership plans and improvements to itsmobile offering (payments, video and group chat etc). When coupled with various othervalue added initiatives (Robin, etc.), we expect an improvement project conversionrates, average project size and repeat customers to the website. However, as >90% ofFLN revenues are sourced offshore (largely USD) a stronger AUD continues to hamperits revenue performance.

• We estimate the recently acquired non-core Escrow.com business (acq. A$10m)contributed ~A$7m to the FY16 result and just A$2.7m in 2H16. The implementationissues with escrow.com were well flagged last year following various changemanagement issues, restructure of core technology stack and a material reductionin transactions of premium domain names by Chinese buyers. Investment is stillrequired, in our view, with a relaunch of its API and new partnership agreements toswing the division to growth in 2H17.

• The company reports ~500 FTE's (Jun-16 469, Dec-15 440) with a increasingproportion allocated to product development/growth initiatives. We estimate ~50%of FLN's opex is allocated to growth initiatives ($23m) driving a marginal ROI of >40%(∆gross profit/growth opext,t-1). Notably, a more efficient operating performance wasevident in 4Q16 with the group modifying its marketing spend to just ~16% of grouprevenues (lowest since 2Q15). We expected this to maintain at current levels which aidprofitability. However, as the major driver of FLN's revenue growth is projects posted(partially acquired through marketing initiatives) and the subsequent long tail of repeatpurchases (>5x), we believe this marketing budget remains low by global standards.

• We have slightly revised down our FY17E revenue estimates (-7%) following a)deferral of growth for FLN's Escrow.com business into 2H17E (-$1.5m, -2.1%), and b)a number of lower projects posted and higher AUD in FLN's core marketplace (-$2.5m,-5%). We expect the core marketplace to grow at ~28% in FY17E with the primarydriver being projects posted and improving conversion rates.

• Following various modelling adjustments and reduction to our growth forecasts in themedium term, we reduce our price target to A$1.40ps (previously A$1.85ps). Our pricetarget is derived using a DCF methodology (12% disc. rate, 5% TGR). For a stock withnegligible earnings in a market where investors are increasingly seeking value stocks,we believe a return to positive revenue revisions is required for the stock to re-rate.

For important information, please see the Important Disclosures beginning on page 7 of this document.

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Figure 1: Forecasts for Freelancer.com

Source: Company Reports, Canaccord Genuity estimates

Profit & Loss ($m) - Dec YE 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F Valuation ratios 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F

Payments 0.0 91.1 440.4 440.4 506.5 EPS (cps) -0.3 -0.3 0.1 0.1 0.7

Marketplace 103.7 138.2 169.3 217.0 279.8 EPS Growth (%) nmf nmf nmf 156% 389%

Gross Payment Volume 103.7 229.3 609.7 657.5 786.3

EV/Gross Profit 20.5 13.5 9.8 7.7 5.9

Sales Revenue 25.9 38.4 52.7 65.6 83.7 P/E (x) -380.3 -316.9 1975.9 771.2 157.9

Gross Profi t 22.5 33.3 45.5 56.8 72.6 P/E (x) - Sustainable 63.7 44.3 32.4 23.7 17.1

EBITDA - Sustainable 10.3 14.9 20.1 27.5 38.3 EV / Sustainable EBITDA (x) 20.5 13.5 9.8 7.7 5.9

Growth opex 12.3 16.9 19.4 26.4 34.0

EBITDA - Statutory -2.0 -2.0 0.7 1.1 4.3 Enterprise Value ($m) 462.2 450.2 447.6 439.7 429.7

D & A -0.3 -0.5 -0.8 -0.5 -0.5 EV/GPV 4.5 2.0 0.7 0.7 0.5

EBIT -2.4 -2.6 -0.1 0.6 3.8 EV/Revenue 17.8 11.7 8.5 6.7 5.1

Net Interest Expense 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 EV / Statutory EBITDA (x) -227.8 -220.6 654.3 385.4 99.0

NPBT -2.2 -2.4 0.1 0.8 4.1 EV / EBIT (x) -195.3 -176.4 -3861.2 686.2 111.9

Tax expense 1.0 0.9 0.2 -0.2 -1.0 DPS (cps) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NPAT (Normalised) -1.2 -1.5 0.2 0.6 3.1

Non-recurring -0.6 -1.3 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 Balance Sheet ratios 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F

NPAT (Reported) -1.8 -2.8 -0.8 -0.4 2.1 Net Debt (cash) -20.2 -32.2 -34.8 -42.7 -52.7

NTA per share ($) 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03

Gross Profit Margin (%) 87.0% 86.7% 86.3% 86.6% 86.8% Price / NTA (x) 120.0 43.3 44.5 46.1 38.5

Underlying Margin (%) 39.6% 38.7% 38.1% 41.9% 45.8% EFPOWA (m) 436.9 451.4 455.1 455.1 455.1

EBIT Margin (%) -9.1% -6.6% -0.2% 1.0% 4.6%

NPAT Margin (%) -4.7% -3.9% 0.5% 1.0% 3.7% Interim Analysis 1H15A 2H15A 1H16A 2H16E 1H17E

**December year end Revenues 16.7 21.7 26.1 26.6 30.2

Cash Flow ($m) - Dec YE 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F Gross Profi t 14.6 18.7 22.7 22.8 26.1

Operating EBITDA -2.0 -2.0 0.7 1.1 4.3 EBIT -1.0 -1.6 0.1 -0.3 -0.3

- Interest & Tax Pa id -0.9 -2.6 1.1 -1.0 -1.8 EBIT margin (%) -5.7% -7.3% 0.6% -1.0% -0.9%

+/- change in Work. Cap. 2.9 6.1 2.7 8.3 8.0 DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

- other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Operating Cashflow -0.1 1.5 4.5 8.4 10.5 Assumptions 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F

- Capex (PPE) -0.9 -1.0 -2.3 -0.5 -0.5 GPV Growth (marketplace) 23% 33% 22% 28% 29%

- Capex (Intangibles ) -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 GPV Growth (payments) na na na 0% 15%

- Aquis i tions/divestments -3.7 -10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 GP Margins 87% 87% 86% 87% 87%

Free Cashflow -5.1 -9.8 2.2 7.9 10.0 Operating Expenses growth 65% 44% 27% 24% 23%

- Ord Dividends 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Take-rate 25.0% 26.5% 27.0% 27.0% 27.0%

- Equity /other 0.0 19.5 0.4 0.0 0.0

Net Cashflow -5.1 9.8 2.6 7.9 10.0 Segment forecasts ($m) 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F

Cash at beginning of period 24.4 20.2 32.2 34.8 42.7 Payments 0.0 1.8 7.0 7.0 8.1

+/- borrowings / other 0.9 2.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 FLN Marketplace 25.9 36.6 45.7 58.6 75.6

Cash at end of period 20.2 32.2 34.8 42.7 52.7 Revenue 25.9 38.4 52.7 65.6 83.7

Balance Sheet - Dec YE 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F Payments 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.6

Cash 20.2 32.2 34.8 42.7 52.7 FLN Marketplace -2.0 -1.9 0.9 1.3 3.8

Debtors 2.8 3.4 3.7 4.9 6.2 EBITDA -2.0 -2.0 0.7 1.1 4.3

PPE 1.1 1.7 2.1 2.1 2.1

Intangibles 13.0 23.9 24.9 24.9 24.9 Board of Directors / Substantial Shareholders

Other assets 3.2 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6 Board of Directors Shareholding %

Total Assets 40.2 65.6 70.1 79.2 90.5 Matt Barrie - CEO & Chairman 191.4 42.1%

Borrowings 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Simon Clausen - Non Executive di rector 156.1 34.3%

Trade Creditors 21.8 28.4 31.5 41.0 50.3 Darren Wi l l iams - CTO 11.1 2.4%

Other Liabi l i ties 1.6 2.3 2.9 2.9 2.9

Total Liabilities 23.4 30.7 34.3 43.9 53.1

NET ASSETS 16.8 34.9 35.7 35.4 37.4

Description

Freelancer i s the world’s largest freelancing, outsourced services and crowdsourcing marketplace. Freelancer connects smal l bus iness , consumers , s tartups and entrepreneurs who

need things done with a global workforce of ski l led onl ine freelancers who are looking for jobs . Founded in 2009 i t now was over 16m users from over 180 countries .

Freelancer LimitedLowering Target Price

Buy unchanged Target Price A$1.40 from A$1.85 | 31 January 2017 Software and Services 2

Page 3: Positive revenue revisions required for a re-rate Freelancer.com … · Freelancer Limited Software and Services ... normal levels (figure 4). •The company continues to invest in

Figure 2: Breakdown of FLN by half years

Source: Company Reports, Canaccord Genuity estimates

P&L Breakdown FY14 1H15 2H15 FY15 1H16 2H16 FY16 1H17 2H17 FY17 1H18 2H18 FY18

Payments GPV (Escrow.com) 0 0 91.1 91.1 274.0 166.4 440.4 202.6 237.8 440.4 248.2 258.3 506.5

Marketplace GPV 103.7 64.1 74.1 138.2 80.9 88.4 169.3 99.8 117.2 217.0 128.7 151.1 279.8

Total GPV $m 103.7 64.1 165.2 229.3 354.9 254.8 609.7 302.4 355.0 657.5 376.9 409.4 786.3

Growth % 23% 29.5% 205% 121% 166% 8% 20%

Payments take-rate % 2.0% 2.0% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6%

Marketplace take-rate % 25.0% 26.2% 26.9% 26.5% 26.9% 27.0% 27.0% 27.0% 27.0% 27.0% 27.0% 27.0% 27.0%

Payments Revenue 1.8 1.8 4.3 2.7 7.0 3.2 3.8 7.0 4.0 4.1 8.1

Marketplace revenue 25.9 16.7 19.9 36.6 21.8 23.9 45.7 27.0 31.6 58.6 34.8 40.8 75.6

Revenues $m 25.9 16.7 21.7 38.4 26.1 26.6 52.7 30.2 35.4 65.6 38.7 44.9 83.7

Growth % 38% 42% 54% 48% 56% 23% 37% 16% 33% 24% 28% 27% 27%

Payments Gross Profit $m 1.5 1.5 3.5 2.3 5.8 2.7 3.2 5.8 3.4 3.5 6.9

Marketplace Gross Profit $m 22.5 14.6 17.2 31.9 19.2 20.6 39.8 23.4 27.5 51.0 30.2 35.5 65.7

Gross Profit $m 22.5 14.6 18.7 33.3 22.7 22.8 45.5 26.1 30.7 56.8 33.6 39.0 72.6

GP Margin 87% 88% 86% 86.7% 87% 86% 86% 87% 87% 87% 87% 87% 87%

Operating Expenses $m -24.6 -15.4 -20.0 -35.4 -22.2 -22.7 -44.9 -26.2 -29.5 -55.7 -32.1 -36.2 -68.3

Growth % 65% 44% 27% 24% 23%

EBITDA (normal) $m -2.0 -0.8 -1.3 -2.0 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.0 1.2 1.1 1.5 2.8 4.3

D&A $m -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.8 -0.25 -0.25 -0.5 -0.25 -0.25 -0.5

EBIT $m -2.4 -1.0 -1.6 -2.6 0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.3 0.9 0.6 1.3 2.6 3.8

Interest $m 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2

NPBT $m -2.2 -0.9 -1.5 -2.4 0.2 -0.2 0.1 -0.2 1.0 0.8 1.4 2.7 4.1

Tax (@25%) $m 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.7 -1.0

NPAT (normalised) $m -1.2 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 0.4 -0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.8 0.6 1.0 2.0 3.1

Non-recurring $m -0.6 -0.8 -0.5 -1.3 -1.2 0.153 -1 -0.5 -0.5 -1 -0.5 -0.5 -1

NPAT (reported) $m -1.8 -1.3 -1.5 -2.8 -0.8 0.0 -0.8 -0.6 0.3 -0.4 0.5 1.5 2.1

Valuation 2014 1H15 2H15 2015 1H16 2H16 2016 1H17 2H17 2017 1H18 2H18 2018

EFPOWA m 437 447 451 451 455 455 455 455 455 455 455 455 455

EPS cps -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7

Mkt cap/GPV x 4.5 3.5 1.4 2.0 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5

EV/Revenue x 17.8 13.5 10.4 11.7 8.6 8.4 8.5 7.4 6.2 6.7 5.6 4.8 5.1

EV/Gross Profit x 20.5 15.4 12.0 13.5 9.9 9.8 9.8 8.5 7.2 7.7 6.5 5.5 5.9

EV/EBITDA x -227.8 -299.252 -174.9 -220.6 447 1216 654 -6913.2 187.4 385.4 143.4 76.2 99.0

Freelancer LimitedLowering Target Price

Buy unchanged Target Price A$1.40 from A$1.85 | 31 January 2017 Software and Services 3

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Figure 3: Key drivers of earnings forecasts (breaking the P&L into growth/fixed opex)

Source: Company Reports, Canaccord Genuity estimates

P & L Breakdown FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22

Freelancer Payments (escrow.com)

Gross Payment Volume A$m 91.1 440.4 440.4 506.5 607.8 729.4 838.8 922.6

Take rate % 2.0% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6%

Payments Revenue A$m 1.8 7.0 7.0 8.1 9.7 11.7 13.4 14.8

Revenue growth % -13% 0% 15% 20% 20% 15% 10%

Gross Profit Margin 81% 82% 83% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85%

Gross Profit 1.5 5.8 5.8 6.9 8.3 9.9 11.4 12.5

Opex 1.6 6.0 6.0 6.3 6.6 6.9 7.3 7.7

Opex Growth 0% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%

Payments EBITDA A$m -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.6 1.7 3.0 4.1 4.9

EBITDA margin % -6% -3% -2% 7% 17% 25% 31% 33%

Freelancer Marketplace (Freelancer.com)Gross Payment Volume A$m 84.4 103.7 138.2 169.3 217.0 279.8 355.2 452.1 548.8 647.3

Effective Take rate % 22.3% 25.0% 26.5% 27.0% 27.0% 27.0% 27.0% 27.0% 27.0% 27.0%

Marketplace Revenue A$m 18.8 25.9 36.6 45.7 58.6 75.6 95.9 122.1 148.2 174.8

37.8% 41.3% 24.8% 28.2% 28.9% 27.0% 27.3% 21.4% 18.0%

Gross Profit Margin % 87% 87% 87% 87% 87% 87% 87% 87% 87% 87%

Gross Profit A$m (1) 16.4 22.5 31.9 39.8 51.0 65.7 83.4 106.2 128.9 152.1

Maintenance opex A$m (2) 8.8 12.3 16.9 19.4 23.3 28.0 30.8 33.9 37.2 41.0

Growth % 39% 38% 15% 20% 20% 10% 10% 10% 10%

EBITDA (ex growth opex) A$m (1)-(2) 7.6 10.3 15.0 20.3 27.7 37.7 52.7 72.3 91.7 111.1

Sustainable EBITDA margins % 40.5% 39.6% 40.9% 44.5% 47.2% 50.0% 54.9% 59.3% 61.9% 63.6%

Growth Opex A$m (3) 8.8 12.3 16.9 19.4 26.4 34.0 43.2 61.0 74.1 87.4

Proportion opex - growth % 50% 50% 50% 50% 53% 55% 58% 64% 67% 68%

Proportion of rev. reinvested % 47% 47% 46% 43% 45% 45% 45% 50% 50% 50%

Reinvestment ROI % 53% 59% 40% 45% 45% 42% 40% 30% 25%

Organic Gross Profit growth % 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%

Reinvestment Gross Profit growth A$m 5.6 8.6 7.3 10.3 13.6 16.2 20.8 20.3 20.2

Organic Gross Profit growth A$m 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.4 3.0

Total Gross Profit uplift A$m 6.1 9.3 7.9 11.2 14.8 17.7 22.8 22.7 23.1

Marketplace EBITDA A$m (1)-(2)-(3) -1.2 -2.0 -1.9 0.9 1.3 3.8 9.5 11.3 17.6 23.7

EBITDA margin % -5% 2% 2% 5% 10% 9% 12% 14%

Multiple analysis FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22

EV (pro-forma) A$m 450.2 447.6 439.7 429.7 415.0 391.8 366.3 335.0

EV/EBIT: Sustainable x 31.4 22.7 16.2 11.4 7.7 5.2 3.8 2.9

EV/EBIT - Statutory x 220.6- 654.3 385.4 99.0 37.2 27.4 16.9 11.7

PER: Sustainable x (@ 25% tax rate) 44.3 32.4 23.7 17.1 11.9 8.6 6.7 5.6

Freelancer LimitedLowering Target Price

Buy unchanged Target Price A$1.40 from A$1.85 | 31 January 2017 Software and Services 4

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Figure 4: Quarterly cash receipts chart

Source: Company Reports, Canaccord Genuity estimates

5.25.6

6.3

6.87.4

8.0

8.8

9.7

11.9

10.611.2 11.2

11.5

4.0

5.0

6.0

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10.0

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4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16

A$mQuarterly Cash Receipts

CGAu est. Escrow.com contribution

10.2

12.813.3

12.713.0

Freelancer LimitedLowering Target Price

Buy unchanged Target Price A$1.40 from A$1.85 | 31 January 2017 Software and Services 5

Page 6: Positive revenue revisions required for a re-rate Freelancer.com … · Freelancer Limited Software and Services ... normal levels (figure 4). •The company continues to invest in

Figure 5: Peer analysis

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Freelancer LimitedLowering Target Price

Buy unchanged Target Price A$1.40 from A$1.85 | 31 January 2017 Software and Services 6

Page 7: Positive revenue revisions required for a re-rate Freelancer.com … · Freelancer Limited Software and Services ... normal levels (figure 4). •The company continues to invest in

Appendix: Important DisclosuresAnalyst CertificationEach authoring analyst of Canaccord Genuity whose name appears on the front page of this research hereby certifies that (i) therecommendations and opinions expressed in this research accurately reflect the authoring analyst’s personal, independent andobjective views about any and all of the designated investments or relevant issuers discussed herein that are within such authoringanalyst’s coverage universe and (ii) no part of the authoring analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to thespecific recommendations or views expressed by the authoring analyst in the research.Analysts employed outside the US are not registered as research analysts with FINRA. These analysts may not be associated persons ofCanaccord Genuity Inc. and therefore may not be subject to the FINRA Rule 2241 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communicationswith a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.Sector CoverageIndividuals identified as “Sector Coverage” cover a subject company’s industry in the identified jurisdiction, but are not authoringanalysts of the report.

Investment RecommendationDate and time of first dissemination: January 31, 2017, 17:38 ETDate and time of production: January 31, 2017, 17:38 ETTarget Price / Valuation Methodology:Freelancer Limited - FLNWe value FLN using a 2-stage DCF methodology using a 12% discount rate and 5% terminal growth rate.Risks to achieving Target Price / Valuation:Freelancer Limited - FLNThe key investment risks for Freelancer include: User base risk -- Scale and market domination is the key. We expect management willcontinue to invest heavily in maintaining its market leadership position, however how much cash it plans to burn is unknown. Acquisitionand integration risk -- Freelancer is a serial acquirer and integrator of internet websites, therefore the risk is that management buyswebsites that provide no synergistic benefits to its shareholders or its current operations. Board of Directors -- The company currently hasno independent directors on the board. Technology risk -- As with all internet based companies, there is a risk the company's technologycould become redundant and replaced by new market entrants.

Distribution of Ratings:Global Stock Ratings (as of 01/31/17)Rating Coverage Universe IB Clients

# % %Buy 590 61.72% 36.10%Hold 272 28.45% 15.81%Sell 31 3.24% 19.35%Speculative Buy 63 6.59% 71.43%

956* 100.0%*Total includes stocks that are Under Review

Canaccord Genuity Ratings SystemBUY: The stock is expected to generate risk-adjusted returns of over 10% during the next 12 months.

HOLD: The stock is expected to generate risk-adjusted returns of 0-10% during the next 12 months.

SELL: The stock is expected to generate negative risk-adjusted returns during the next 12 months.

NOT RATED: Canaccord Genuity does not provide research coverage of the relevant issuer.“Risk-adjusted return” refers to the expected return in relation to the amount of risk associated with the designated investment or therelevant issuer.Risk QualifierSPECULATIVE: Stocks bear significantly higher risk that typically cannot be valued by normal fundamental criteria. Investments in thestock may result in material loss.

Freelancer LimitedLowering Target Price

Buy unchanged Target Price A$1.40 from A$1.85 | 31 January 2017 Software and Services 7

Page 8: Positive revenue revisions required for a re-rate Freelancer.com … · Freelancer Limited Software and Services ... normal levels (figure 4). •The company continues to invest in

12-Month Recommendation History (as of date same as the Global Stock Ratings table)A list of all the recommendations on any issuer under coverage that was disseminated during the preceding 12-month periodmay be obtained at the following website (provided as a hyperlink if this report is being read electronically) http://disclosures-mar.canaccordgenuity.com/EN/Pages/default.aspx

Required Company-Specific Disclosures (as of date of this publication)Canaccord Genuity or one or more of its affiliated companies intend to seek or expect to receive compensation for Investment Bankingservices from Freelancer Limited in the next three months.

Apr 2014 Jul 2014 Oct 2014 Jan 2015 Apr 2015 Jul 2015 Oct 2015 Jan 2016 Apr 2016 Jul 2016 Oct 2016 Jan 2017

2.50

2.00

1.50

1.00

0.50

Freelancer Limited Rating History as of 01/29/2017

Closing Price Target Price

Buy (B); Speculative Buy (SB); Sell (S); Hold (H); Suspended (SU); Under Review (UR); Restricted (RE); Not Rated (NR)

B:AUD1.6002/28/14

B:AUD1.4408/10/14

B:AUD1.4402/12/15

B:AUD1.3802/16/15

B:AUD1.4603/16/15

B:AUD1.4604/27/15

B:AUD1.4607/27/15

B:AUD1.7507/30/15

B:AUD1.7509/08/15

B:AUD2.1711/02/15

B:AUD2.2102/23/16

B:AUD2.1308/02/16

B:AUD1.8510/24/16

Online DisclosuresUp-to-date disclosures may be obtained at the following website (provided as a hyperlink if this report is being read electronically)http://disclosures.canaccordgenuity.com/EN/Pages/default.aspx; or by sending a request to Canaccord Genuity Corp. Research, Attn:Disclosures, P.O. Box 10337 Pacific Centre, 2200-609 Granville Street, Vancouver, BC, Canada V7Y 1H2; or by sending a requestby email to [email protected]. The reader may also obtain a copy of Canaccord Genuity’s policies and proceduresregarding the dissemination of research by following the steps outlined above.General DisclaimersSee “Required Company-Specific Disclosures” above for any of the following disclosures required as to companies referred to in thisreport: manager or co-manager roles; 1% or other ownership; compensation for certain services; types of client relationships; researchanalyst conflicts; managed/co-managed public offerings in prior periods; directorships; market making in equity securities and relatedderivatives. For reports identified above as compendium reports, the foregoing required company-specific disclosures can be found ina hyperlink located in the section labeled, “Compendium Reports.” “Canaccord Genuity” is the business name used by certain whollyowned subsidiaries of Canaccord Genuity Group Inc., including Canaccord Genuity Inc., Canaccord Genuity Limited, Canaccord GenuityCorp., and Canaccord Genuity (Australia) Limited, an affiliated company that is 50%-owned by Canaccord Genuity Group Inc.The authoring analysts who are responsible for the preparation of this research are employed by Canaccord Genuity Corp. a Canadianbroker-dealer with principal offices located in Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto, Montreal, or Canaccord Genuity Inc., a US broker-dealerwith principal offices located in New York, Boston, San Francisco and Houston, or Canaccord Genuity Limited., a UK broker-dealer withprincipal offices located in London (UK) and Dublin (Ireland), or Canaccord Genuity (Australia) Limited, an Australian broker-dealer withprincipal offices located in Sydney and Melbourne.The authoring analysts who are responsible for the preparation of this research have received (or will receive) compensation based upon(among other factors) the Investment Banking revenues and general profits of Canaccord Genuity. However, such authoring analystshave not received, and will not receive, compensation that is directly based upon or linked to one or more specific Investment Bankingactivities, or to recommendations contained in the research.Some regulators require that a firm must establish, implement and make available a policy for managing conflicts of interest arising asa result of publication or distribution of research. This research has been prepared in accordance with Canaccord Genuity’s policy onmanaging conflicts of interest, and information barriers or firewalls have been used where appropriate. Canaccord Genuity’s policy isavailable upon request.The information contained in this research has been compiled by Canaccord Genuity from sources believed to be reliable, but (with theexception of the information about Canaccord Genuity) no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by Canaccord Genuity,its affiliated companies or any other person as to its fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness. Canaccord Genuity has notindependently verified the facts, assumptions, and estimates contained herein. All estimates, opinions and other information contained

Freelancer LimitedLowering Target Price

Buy unchanged Target Price A$1.40 from A$1.85 | 31 January 2017 Software and Services 8

Page 9: Positive revenue revisions required for a re-rate Freelancer.com … · Freelancer Limited Software and Services ... normal levels (figure 4). •The company continues to invest in

in this research constitute Canaccord Genuity’s judgement as of the date of this research, are subject to change without notice and areprovided in good faith but without legal responsibility or liability.From time to time, Canaccord Genuity salespeople, traders, and other professionals provide oral or written market commentary ortrading strategies to our clients and our principal trading desk that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed in thisresearch. Canaccord Genuity’s affiliates, principal trading desk, and investing businesses also from time to time make investmentdecisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations or views expressed in this research.This research is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any designatedinvestments discussed herein in any jurisdiction where such offer or solicitation would be prohibited. 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Short-term trade ideas are not ratings, nor are they part of any ratings system, and the firm does not intend, and does notundertake any obligation, to maintain or update short-term trade ideas. Short-term trade ideas are not suitable for all investors and arenot tailored to individual investor circumstances and objectives, and investors should make their own independent decisions regardingany securities or strategies discussed herein. Please contact your salesperson for more information regarding Canaccord Genuity’sresearch.For Canadian Residents:This research has been approved by Canaccord Genuity Corp., which accepts sole responsibility for this research and its disseminationin Canada. Canaccord Genuity Corp. is registered and regulated by the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC)and is a Member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund. Canadian clients wishing to effect transactions in any designated investmentdiscussed should do so through a qualified salesperson of Canaccord Genuity Corp. in their particular province or territory.For United States Persons:Canaccord Genuity Inc., a US registered broker-dealer, accepts responsibility for this research and its dissemination in the United States.This research is intended for distribution in the United States only to certain US institutional investors. US clients wishing to effecttransactions in any designated investment discussed should do so through a qualified salesperson of Canaccord Genuity Inc. Analystsemployed outside the US, as specifically indicated elsewhere in this report, are not registered as research analysts with FINRA. Theseanalysts may not be associated persons of Canaccord Genuity Inc. and therefore may not be subject to the FINRA Rule 2241 and NYSERule 472 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analystaccount.For United Kingdom and European Residents:This research is distributed in the United Kingdom and elsewhere Europe, as third party research by Canaccord Genuity Limited,which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. This research is for distribution only to persons who are EligibleCounterparties or Professional Clients only and is exempt from the general restrictions in section 21 of the Financial Services andMarkets Act 2000 on the communication of invitations or inducements to engage in investment activity on the grounds that it is beingdistributed in the United Kingdom only to persons of a kind described in Article 19(5) (Investment Professionals) and 49(2) (High Net

Freelancer LimitedLowering Target Price

Buy unchanged Target Price A$1.40 from A$1.85 | 31 January 2017 Software and Services 9

Page 10: Positive revenue revisions required for a re-rate Freelancer.com … · Freelancer Limited Software and Services ... normal levels (figure 4). •The company continues to invest in

Worth companies, unincorporated associations etc) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005(as amended). It is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons. This material is not fordistribution in the United Kingdom or elsewhere in Europe to retail clients, as defined under the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority.For Jersey, Guernsey and Isle of Man Residents:This research is sent to you by Canaccord Genuity Wealth (International) Limited (CGWI) for information purposes and is not to beconstrued as a solicitation or an offer to purchase or sell investments or related financial instruments. This research has been producedby an affiliate of CGWI for circulation to its institutional clients and also CGWI. Its contents have been approved by CGWI and we areproviding it to you on the basis that we believe it to be of interest to you. This statement should be read in conjunction with your clientagreement, CGWI's current terms of business and the other disclosures and disclaimers contained within this research. If you are in anydoubt, you should consult your financial adviser.CGWI is licensed and regulated by the Guernsey Financial Services Commission, the Jersey Financial Services Commission and the Isleof Man Financial Supervision Commission. CGWI is registered in Guernsey and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Canaccord Genuity GroupInc.For Australian Residents:This research is distributed in Australia by Canaccord Genuity (Australia) Limited ABN 19 075 071 466 holder of AFS Licence No234666. To the extent that this research contains any advice, this is limited to general advice only. Recipients should take into accounttheir own personal circumstances before making an investment decision. Clients wishing to effect any transactions in any financialproducts discussed in the research should do so through a qualified representative of Canaccord Genuity (Australia) Limited. CanaccordGenuity Wealth Management is a division of Canaccord Genuity (Australia) Limited.For Hong Kong Residents:This research is distributed in Hong Kong by Canaccord Genuity (Hong Kong) Limited which is licensed by the Securities and FuturesCommission. This research is only intended for persons who fall within the definition of professional investor as defined in the Securitiesand Futures Ordinance. It is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons. Recipients ofthis report can contact Canaccord Genuity (Hong Kong) Limited. (Contact Tel: +852 3919 2561) in respect of any matters arising from, orin connection with, this research.Additional information is available on request.Copyright © Canaccord Genuity Corp. 2017 – Member IIROC/Canadian Investor Protection Fund

Copyright © Canaccord Genuity Limited. 2017 – Member LSE, authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

Copyright © Canaccord Genuity Inc. 2017 – Member FINRA/SIPC

Copyright © Canaccord Genuity (Australia) Limited. 2017 – Participant of ASX Group, Chi-x Australia and of the NSX. Authorized andregulated by ASIC.

All rights reserved. All material presented in this document, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright to CanaccordGenuity Corp., Canaccord Genuity Limited, Canaccord Genuity Inc or Canaccord Genuity Group Inc. None of the material, nor its content,nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, or transmitted to or distributed to any other party, without the prior express writtenpermission of the entities listed above.None of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, reproduced, or distributed to any other partyincluding by way of any form of social media, without the prior express written permission of the entities listed above.

Freelancer LimitedLowering Target Price

Buy unchanged Target Price A$1.40 from A$1.85 | 31 January 2017 Software and Services 10