PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION USING THE MARKOWITZ MODEL: CASE STUDY OF SELECTED COMPANIES IN GHANA by...
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Transcript of PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION USING THE MARKOWITZ MODEL: CASE STUDY OF SELECTED COMPANIES IN GHANA by...
PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION USING THE MARKOWITZ MODEL:
CASE STUDY OF SELECTED COMPANIES IN GHANA
by
ALBERT K.M. COFIE
BSC (HONS) COMPUTER SCIENCE AND PHYSICS
FACULTY INTERN, ASHESI UNIVERSITY COLLEGE
OUTLINE
IntroductionReview of Available LiteratureProblem StatementObjectivesMethodResultsConclusionRecommendations
INTRODUCTION
•Investments play a vital role in any economy and can vary from small scale to large scale.
•Typically, an investor would have a collection of different assets (investments) in one place.
•This collection is often referred to as a “Portfolio”.
•An asset in a portfolio can represent a company’s stock (shares) that is traded on stock markets, government bonds, company bonds, Treasury bills, etc.
INTRODUCTION•Every asset is attributed with an expected return and an element of risk
•The expected return and the risk (variance or standard deviation) form an elementary aspect of a portfolio and are used as basis for selecting assets into a portfolio.
•The fundamental problem often faced by investors, which is known as the “Portfolio Selection problem”, is “how” to distribute an investment amount across a number of potential assets (investments).
REVIEW OF AVAILABLE LITERATURE
• 1952 – Markowitz, Harry: Portfolio Selection, • 1959 – Wolfe: Simplex method• 1984 – Perold• 1988 – Tayi and Leonard• 1990 – Dueck and Scheuer – Threshold Accepting
Algorithm• 1991 – Lai• 1992 – Dueck and Winker• 1993 – Speranza • 1995 – Kono & Suzuki• 1996 – Speranza
REVIEW OF AVAILABLE LITERATURE
• 1997 – Chunchachinda• 1997 – Borchers and Mitchel• 1999 – Kono and Wijanayake• 2000 – Winker• 2001 – Gilli and Kellezi• 2001 – Jobst et al• 2003 – Gaspero and Schaerf• 2005 – Konno and Yamamoto• 2007 – Bonami and Lejeune- probabilistic constraints
PROBLEM STATEMENT•Information regarding the risk level of companies and what proportions to invest in portfolios in order to spread the risks for some expected returns are not readily available to the public or prospective investors.
•Lack of knowledge of the risk levels may lead to ill-informed investments which may result in financial losses
OBJECTIVES
The main objectives are• To estimate the sensitivities(risk level) of six
selected companies trading on the Ghana Stock Exchange
• Formulate and solve the Markowitz Model by applying it to the Ghana Stock Exchange for these selected companies
METHOD
• A preliminary analysis was done by regression runs of the return of the companies against the market index
• Markowitz Model was formulated and solved using a quadratic programming add-in in MS Excel and the MS Excel Solver
METHOD
• Source of Data : Bank of Ghana• Type of Data:• 5 year historical, month by month data from
1998 to 2002 of six companies trading on the Ghana Stock Exchange
Contents of Data:• GSE All Share Index
METHOD
• Monthly beginning and closing stock prices of the six companies
• 91-day Treasury bill(also known as the Risk Free Rate
The six companies fall under four sectors of the economy and are:
Banking Sector• Ghana Commercial Bank-(GCB)• SG-SSB Bank-(SG-SSB)• Standard Chartered Bank-(SCB)
METHOD
Insurance Sector• Enterprise Insurance Company Limited
Real Estate• Home Finance Company
Oil and Gas• Total Ghana Limited
METHODInformation gleaned from data• Market Return
• Security Return
• Risk Free Rate
*100
m
Final Index Beginning IndexR
Beginning Index
Pr Pr
Pri
Final ice Beginning ice DividendsR
Beginning ice
100*12f
Annual RateR
METHOD
• FORMULATION OF MARKOWITZ MODEL• Consider a coordinate system of expected
return and standard deviation.• Slope subject to the constraint• • Stating expected return and std dev in general
form
P F
P
R R
1
1N
ii
X
1 1
1N N
F F i F i Fi i
R R X R X R
1
12
2 2
1 1 11
N
i i Fi
N N N
i i i j iji i i
j
X R R
X X X
METHOD
• Find partial derivatives and equate to zero• etc.
• Rewrite in the form• Differentiate using Chain and Product rule•
1
2
1 0
2. 0
d
dX
d
dX
12
2 2
1 1 1 1
(N N N N
i i F i i j iji i i j
j i
X R R X X X
32
2 2 2
1 1 1 1 11
1( 2 2
2
N N N N N
i i F i i i j ij k k j kji i i j ik
j j k
dX R R X X X X X
dX
METHOD
• Simplifying and re-arranging gives
• But is the Lagrange multiplier •
• This yields
21
2 2 1
1 1 1
( )0
N
i i F Ni
k k j kj k FN N Nij ki i i j ij
i i jj i
X R RX X R R
X X X
1
2 2
1 1 11
( )N
i i Fi
N N N
i i i j iji i j
j
X R R
X X X
2
1
0N
k k j kj k Fij k
X X R R
METHOD
• Multiplying ,• By extension
• Let • This gives or
2
1
0N
k k j kj k Fij k
X X R R
21 1 2 2 1 1... ... 0i i i i N N i N Ni i F
i
dX X X X X R R
dX
k kZ X2
1 1 2 2 1 1... ...i F i i i i N N i N NiR R Z Z Z Z Z
1
N
i F N Nii
R R Z
RESULTS
AVERAGE RETURNS AND STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF SELECTED COMPANIES
Invstmts 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Name All-Share GCB SG-SSB SCB HFC EIC TOTAL
Return -1.98 -3.89 -2.18 -2.70 -2.76 -3.52 -2.29
Std Dev 8.1734 18.6741 13.2915 11.4043 10.3051 16.9908 14.2372
RESULTS
COVARIANCE MATRIX
All-Share GCB SG-SSB SCB HFC EIC TOTAL
All-Share 66.81 112.62 66.62 67.21 53.09 59.54 95.61
GCB 112.62 348.72 90.85 76.75 72.41 54.76 182.88
SG-SSB 66.62 90.85 176.66 50.62 40.47 231.63 82.77
SCB 67.21 76.75 50.62 130.06 67.97 63.82 89.54
HFC 53.09 72.41 40.47 67.97 106.20 59.51 91.54
EIC 59.54 54.76 231.63 63.82 59.51 288.69 55.43
TOTAL 95.61 182.88 82.77 89.54 91.54 55.43 202.70
RESULTS
• Preliminary Analysis: Regression Runs
=component of stock return that is independent of the market’s performance
The rate of return on the market index
A constant that measures the expected change in
given a change in
i i i mr a r
ir return on stock i
ia
mr i ir
mr
RESULTS
SUMMARY OF RESULTS OF REGRESSION RUNS
STOCK BETA
GCB 1.69 0.5154 0.48
SG-SSB -99.81 0.3831 0.62
HFC -80.85 0.4112 0.59
SCB -102.32 0.5377 0.46
EIC -90.64 0.1901 0.81
TOTAL -145.53 0.6901 0.31
2R 21 R
RESULTS
Setting up inputs to the Markowitz Model
Decision Variables
Fraction of portfolio to invest in industry
ir return on company imax (1)k imum risk factor
cov cov company ij ariance between i and j
( . company)N Portfolio size no of
jx
RESULTS
Objective
Markowitz Total Returns:
Constraints
Budget Constraint:
Maximum allowable risk:
1
*i ii
r x
1
1ii
x
1
*cov *j ji ii j J
kx x
N
RESULTS
SOLUTION TO THE MARKOWITZ MODEL
GCB SG-SSB SCB HFC EIC TOTAL GHA
0.01964 0.0893 0.1786 0.1071 0.0536 0.375
CONCLUSION
• A well diversified portfolio is one’s best bet for the growth of their investments
• GCB’s stock: very aggressive and sensitive and good for risk-loving investors
• Total Ghana Stock less risky hence Markowitz invested more in this stock, followed by GCB and the rest.
CONCLUSION
• The Markowitz Model could be solved for a series of expected returns, which could be plotted against standard deviation of returns to produce what is called an efficient frontier
RECOMMENDATIONS• Make continuous historical data accessible• Future research could extend the historical
period to ten or fifteen years• Increase the number of companies to involve
major sectors like oil and gas , agric, banking and finance and services sector
• Provide regular information on the efficient frontier of companies
This will provide periodic and relevant information to prospective local investors
RECOMMENDATION
• Government and policy-makers should include the study of finance and investment in the lower levels of the educational sector e.g. courses run by GSE should be extended to schools
• Companies must not be allowed to charge for data obtained for research and academic purposes
• “Don’t put all your eggs in one basket". Diversify.
THANK YOU!