Port Demand Forecast in Korea and the ESCAP regionSession 2) KMI_Port de… · Time series analysis...
Transcript of Port Demand Forecast in Korea and the ESCAP regionSession 2) KMI_Port de… · Time series analysis...
Port Demand Forecast in Korea and the ESCAP region
Port Demand Analysis Center of Korea Maritime Institute
Establish national action plan for shipping and port sectorsDevelop policies for the development of industriesrelated to shipping and portInternational logistics and cooperation in shipping and port sectorRun International Logistics Investment Analysis Center
and Port Demand Analysis CenterAnalyze trend and policies related to shipping, port and logistics
Shipping/Port Policies
Establish national action plan on marine policyPolicy related to the development and use of marine resourcesPolicy and management of marine territory including Dokdo island and Ieoh IslandPolicy related to preservation and management of marinespace and marine ecosystemIntegrated management of exclusive economic zone (EEZ)
Marine Policy/Marine Environment
Establish national policy for fisheries and fishing community sectorsDevelop fisheries related policies and improve institutionUse and develop coastal area efficientlyStrategy to respond to fisheries negotiation under FTA and WTO/DDAEnter overseas fisheries market and handleinternational cooperation on fisheries
Fisheries Industry/Fishing Community
Korea Maritime Institute
Port Demand Analysis Center(PDAC)
Container
Oil
Coal
Steel
Iron Ore
Car
Other Ores
Sand
Cement
Chemical ProductsGeneral Goods
Grains
Wood
Scrap Metal
Confirm port traffic
volume forecast
Reflect the forecast in
port master
plan
Forecast on Item-Specific Traffic Volume
Forecast atItem Level
Comparewith berth
development plan
Total traffic volume
forecast at each port
(30 trade ports+
Other ports)
Compare with the previous
forecast
* Source: Port Demand Analysis Center(KMI)
Oil28%
Steel/Iron Ore12%
Coal9%
Car5%
Others46%
Total Cargo in Korea
’000 ton
* Source: Port Demand Analysis Center(KMI)
CAGR: 3.4%
Incheon: 2,377
Busan: 19,469
Gwangyang: 2,327
Pyeongtaek Dangjin: 566
Ulsan: 385
Nationwide: 25,681
It is forecast that container traffic volume will be 31 million TEU in Korea and 23.5 million TEU in Busan port by 2020.
Container Throughput in Korea
’000 teu
* Source: Port Demand Analysis Center(KMI)
Gwangyang: 2,327Gwangyang
CAGR: 5.4%
Export/Import Full Container
Port-specific forecast on total container traffic volume
Forecast on Port Traffic Volume
Economic Indicators(GDP, amount of seaborne)
Difference between full container import and export,
actual empty container
Forecast on total
export/import container traffic
volume
By area by sea route by port
GDP of major trading partners
Weighted moving average
Port specific forecast on export/import container
volume
Port-specific forecast on transshipment container
Port-specific forecast on costal container
Analyze the share of each port
Transshipment container for each
port
Coastal container for each port
Container
Export/Import Empty Container
* Source: Port Demand Analysis Center(KMI)
For generation
Import of bituminous coal/Plant capacity
For steel making
Bituminous coal import volume/Crude steel production capacity
cement production Time series analysis
Survey and reflect bituminous coal use plan of each plant
Anthracite consumption amount/Crude steel production capacity
Import
Coastal Time series analysis
Export Excluded from forecast
Port-specific forecast on coal volume
Account for 0.04%
It is forecast that coal traffic volume in Korea will reach 18.4 million tons by 2020.
CoalForecast on Port Traffic Volume
* Source: Port Demand Analysis Center(KMI)
Dangjin Thermal Power
Seocheon Thermal Power
Hadong Thermal Power
Taean Thermal Power
Seocheon
Boryeong Thermal Power
Yeongheung Thermal Power
Yeongdong Thermal Power
Donghae Thermal Power
Samcheonpo Thermal Power
Honam Yeosoo Thermal Power
Coal
’000 ton
CAGR:6.6%
* Source: Port Demand Analysis Center(KMI)
Oil, 39.5%
Coal, 12.9%
Steel, 8.8%
Iron ore, 7.7%Car, 6.6%
Others, 24.4%
Steel
* Source: WSA(World Steel Association)
PyeongtaekDangjin Port
Gwangyang Port
Okpo Port
Pohang Port
Korea has the 5th
largest steel production capacity as a major steel producer
in the world
steel export cargo is predicted by utilizing crude steel production capacity of steel making companies located near ports
Steel
Steel cargo volume in Korea will be 94.6 million tons by 2020, growing 0.7%on annual average reflecting recent downturn in the steel industry
CAGR:0.7%
’000 ton
* Source: Port Demand Analysis Center(KMI)
Forecast on Port Traffic Volume Automobiles
Import Regression analysis
Recent statistics
Regression analysis(New cars)
Analysis on the ratio of transshipment export/Import
traffic volume in export/Import traffic volume
Location of PDI businesses
in surrounding areas
Major ports for automobile
transshipment
Unit load approach, weighted moving average,
log trend, demand momentum
Port-specific forecast
on Automo
biles volume
Location of car production
facilitiesin surrounding
areas
Import
Ports for new car ferries
Coastal
Others(Export/import,
transhipment, coastal
Log trend analysis(Used cars)
Export
Export
Automobile Production volume forecast
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
South Asia
South America
North America
Middle East/Africa
Japan/Korea
Greater China
Europe
* Source: IHS Automotive
Global automobile production volume forecast (IHS Automotive) and domestic automobile production volume and forecast are used for prediction
(’000s)
CAGR:1.4%
* Source: Port Demand Analysis Center(KMI)
’000 ton
Automobiles cargo volume in Korea will be 73.4 million tons by 2020, growing 1.4%on annual average
Forecast on Port Traffic Volume
PetroleumGas
Petro-chemical industry’s
value-added
LNG production facility per port/
Import traffic volume
Refinement capacity per port/Import traffic volume
Forecast on oil importtraffic
volumeper portCrude
oil/pertrol-eum
RefinedPertrol-
eum
Distributionper port
Ratio of crude oil import in oil export
Sophistication ratio of petroleum refinement facilities
Forecast on oil export traffic volume per port
Regression analysis(oil export traffic volume)
Distribution per port (Sorted by Production/consumption places)
Forecast on oil coastal traffic volume per port
Oil
Oil
OilApply bottom-up method targeting ports located near oil refining facilities
Gwangyang Port
Ulsan Port
Import: Item-specific forecast including crude
oil, petroleum products, and petroleum gas
Export: Forecast on all oil related products
Coastal: Forecast on all oil related products
Incheon Port
Daesan Port
Petroleum ProductsForecast based on added value of petrochemical industry using naphtha, a major ingredient of petroleum products, as a variable
Petroleum GasForecast by dividing ports into ones which are located near LNG production facilities and ones which are located near power generation plant.
Korea has the 6th
largest refining capacity as a major petroleum products
producer in the world
’000 ton
CAGR:5.4%
* Source: Port Demand Analysis Center(KMI)
Oil cargo volume in Korea will be 532 million tons by 2020, growing 5.4%on annual average reflecting oil hub, which is underway
’000 teu’000 teu
* Source: IHS Global Insight(WTS)
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Traffic volume increase rate is different from country to country. and except for China, Container throughput in Indonesia, India and Viet Nam is significantly higher.
(3.8%) (5.9%) (4.9%) (0.07%) (1.8%) (11.0%)(2.3%) (3.4%)
China Hong Kong, China India Indonesia Japan Malaysia Republic of Korea Thailand Viet Nam
’000 ton’000 ton
* Source: IHS Global Insight(WTS)
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The non-container traffic increase rate was high in the China, India and Viet Nam
(7.1%) (3.4%) (2.1%) (-0.09%) (2.4%) (3.8%)(2.4%) (1.6%)
0
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China Hong Kong, China India Indonesia Japan Malaysia Republic of Korea Thailand Viet Nam
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* Source: IHS Global Insight(WTS)
USDmillion
We tried to utilize the same method used in Korea, but due to lack of relevant data,GDP and time series methods were used.
* Source: IHS Global Insight(WTS)* Source: IHS Global Insight(WTS)
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’000 teu ’000 teu‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16e ’17e ’18e ’19e ’20e
The annual growth rate is expected to be 2 to 3% on average. However, it is predicted that Viet nam maintain growth rate higher than annual average by 2020.
,Port Demand Analysis Center(KMI)
(2.5%) (2.4%) (2.3%) (1.6%) (2.2%) (3.5%)(1.9%) (2.1%)
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China Hong Kong, China India Indonesia Japan Malaysia Republic of Korea Thailand Viet Nam
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* Source: IHS Global Insight(WTS) , Port Demand Analysis Center(KMI)
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The annual growth rate is expected to be 0.2 to 2.4% on average. Some countries such as the Philippines(4.3%) and China maintain growth rate higher than annual average by 2020.
(3.0%) (2.4%) (1.7%) (1.7%) (2.3%) (2.2%)(1.8%) (1.8%)
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