Celinda Lake, Lake Research PartnersWashington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY| Richmond, VAwww.lakeresearch.com202.776.9066

Populist Anger and the Midterm Elections

A presentation for Campaign for America’s Future

October 13, 2010

2

Key Findings: Political Climate• Voters are highly pessimistic about the direction of the country, dissatisfied with both Parties

in Congress, and angry about the lack of palpable results, especially when it comes to jobs and the economy.

• Republicans hold a significant advantage in voter enthusiasm—especially among young voters, although both Republicans and Democrats in Congress receive low approval ratings.

• Democrats and Republicans are ranked equally on the economy. Voters blame Bush and Wall Street more than Obama, but the election is still being framed as a referendum on the President rather than a choice between the two Parties.

• The economy dominates the issue agenda. This is a jobs recession for men and a pocketbook recession for women, making voters both debt- and tax-sensitive.

• Voters, primarily Republican men, are worried about the deficit and spending. Broader concern stems from people believing a lot of money has been spent with few results.

• Given the economy’s dominance of the issue landscape, progressives can use successful economic frames to set the contrast. We need to offer a credible strategy for re-building the economy, but the emphasis of our message at this point in the cycle must be a clear contrast on the GOP’s record and agenda when it comes to the future direction for the economic well-being of the country and individual American families.

– Key issue contrasts revolve around Social Security, trickle-down economics, and outsourcing of American jobs.

3

More than half of Americans are pessimistic about the direction of the country.

Direction of the Country

Right direction, 36%

Wrong direction, 57%

Don't know, 9%

Source: NBC-Wall Street Journal. September 22-26, 2010. 1000 adults nationwide.

Nationally, voters are mixed on the job President Obama is doing, but they are starting to tilt negative. They are far more unified, however, in their contempt for Congress—two thirds of Americans disapprove of the job Congress is doing with very high intense disapproval.

-3866

46

28

51

59

45

16

35Barack Obama

United StatesCongress

Disapprove Approve

-5

*Politico/GWU Battleground: 1,000 likely voters nationwide – September 22, 2010 (Lake Research/Tarrance Group).

Darker colors = intensity4

Americans have equally unfavorable attitudes toward the two major parties – intensity is key as about four in ten strongly disapprove of the job done by both parties. This dissatisfaction with Washington is the undercurrent of the anti-incumbent mood of the electorate.

57

59

34

2638

43

8

15Democrats inCongress

Republicans inCongress

Disapprove ApproveNot Sure

9

16

*Politico/GWU Battleground: 1,000 likely voters nationwide – September 10, 2010 (Lake Research/Tarrance Group).

Darker colors = intensity5

Contributing to Congress’s low favorability is the fact that over three-fourths of voters believe there is more bickering in Congress than attempts to work together to address important issues facing our nation.

Pew Research/National Journal Poll, 9/30/10-10/3/10

Partisan Bickering in Congress

77%

8%15%

Working together more Same Bickering more

This year, have Republicans and Democrats in Washington been working together more to solve problems OR have

they been bickering and opposing one another more than usual? 6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

8/5-

8/10

2/1-

3/10

8/6-

9/09

2/9-

12/0

9

8/7-

10/0

8

2/11

-14/

08

9/14

-16/

07

3/11

-14/

07

10/2

0-22

/06

6/1-

4/06

12/5

-8/0

5

6/6-

8/05

12/5

-8/0

4

6/3-

6/04

12/1

1-14

/03

6/12

-15/

03

12/5

-8/0

2

7/9-

11/0

2

1/7-

9/02

8/3-

5/01

2/1-

4/01

1/7-

10/0

0

1/15

-17/

99

9/11

-12/

98

12/1

8-21

/97

2/24

-26/

97

11/2

-4/9

3

Disapprove %

Voters’ ratings of the job Congress is doing are at historic lows.

Source: Gallup Poll. Aug. 5-8, 2010. N=1,013 adults nationwide. MoE ± 4.

7

In a generic ballot, the Republican candidate has a slight lead over the Democratic candidate.

45

52

Democratic candidate Republican candidate

Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation. October 5-7, 2010. N=1,008 adults nationwide

8

-7 Democratic candidateAmong blue-collar voters

-20% support the Democratic candidate

-71% who support the Republican candidate

Among white-collar voters

-47% support the Democratic candidate

-50% who support the Republican candidate

The contempt toward Congress is leading to a strong anti-incumbent climate. A solid majority of voters feel it is time to give someone new a chance, and half would vote to replace every single member of Congress.

Defeat and replace every member of Congress, including your own representative?

48 49

Yes No

Congress Re-Elect

11

56

31

Not sure

Give newperson achance

Deserves tobe reelected

NBC News/Wall St. Journal – August 30, 2010

9

Building off the anti-incumbent sentiment, four-in-ten registered voters believe a switch in control of Congress would be a good thing. However, fewer voters believe a change would be a good thing than when Republicans controlled Congress before the 2006 midterm elections.

Would a Switch in Control of Congress Be Good or Bad?

40%

47%

28%23%

October 2010 October 2006

Good Bad

Washington Post/ABC News Poll, 10/3/2010, registered voters.

If control of the Congress switched from the Democrats to the Republicans [Republicans to the Democrats in 2006] after November’s election, do you think that would be a good thing, a bad thing, or wouldn’t it make any difference? 10

-12 -24

11

Another major issue facing progressives this cycle is the shift toward a more conservative electorate as a majority of voters (54%) identify themselves as conservatives. Since 2006, the percentage of voters identifying as conservative has increased while the percentage of voters identifying as moderate or liberal has decreased (by 10 and 3 points, respectively).

Ideology of Likely Voters - 2010

Liberal, 18%Moderate, 27%

Conservative 54%

Source: Gallup. September 23-October 3, 2010. 1,882 likely voters nationwide.

Ideology of Likely Voters - 2006

Liberal, 21%

Moderate, 37%

Conservative 42%

Moreover, Democrats face an enthusiasm gap going into the 2010 midterm elections. Half the battle this cycle will be getting progressives to the polls.

Percent saying they are extremely likely vote in the 2010 midterm elections

69%

56%

70%

Republicans Democrats Independents12

-13

Source: GWU/Politico Battleground Poll. September 19-22, 2010. N=1,000 likely voters nationwide. (Lake Research/Tarrance Group).

13

Contributing to the enthusiasm gap, young voters who turned out in record numbers in 2008 show much less interest in the coming midterm elections.

Pew Research Center Aug 25-Sept 6, 2010, N=2,816 registered voters

Percent giving a lot of thought to the elections53%

50%

42%45%46%

31%

39%

30%29%33%

1994 1998 2002 2006 2010

Over 30 30 and Under

In 2008

Overall: 81% giving a lot of thought to the elections

-Over 30: 83%

-Under 30: 72%

14

This decrease in youth engagement is even more pronounced among young Democrats.

Pew Research Center Aug 25-Sept 6, 2010, N=2,816 registered voters

Democrat/Lean Democratic

43%

53%

43%43%40%

27%

47%

35%31%

25%

1994 1998 2002 2006 2010

Over 30 30 and Under

Percent giving a lot of thought to the elections

Democrat/Lean Democratic

43%

53%

43%43%40%

27%

47%

35%31%

25%

1994 1998 2002 2006 2010

Over 30 30 and Under

Republican/Lean Republican 67%

49%43%

53%53%

39%

31%28%29%31%

1994 1998 2002 2006 2010

Over 30 30 and Under

15

There is a clear enthusiasm gap among most groups that compose the Rising American Electorate—all of which propelled Obama to a decisive win in 2008.

Source: GWU/Politico Battleground Poll. September 19-22, 2010. N=1,000 likely voters nationwide. (Lake Research/Tarrance Group).

58

36

65

63

50

65

64Total

Black

Latino

Women

Men

Under 34

Seniors

Enthusiasm--% Extremely Likely to Vote

Voters who are engaged in this election cycle are thinking with their wallets—meaning a further Republican advantage lies in voters perceiving them as being better to handle controlling wasteful spending, keeping taxes down, and controlling the deficit. Voters do split, however, on who is best to turn the economy around and on creating jobs.

Better to handle . . .

39%

42%

37% 10%

20%

8%

8%

8%53%

28%

26% 10%

Turning theeconomy around

Controllingwasteful spending

Holding down taxes

39%

39%

39% 10%

11%

8%

8%

8%45%

39%

28% 16%

Sharing your values

Creating jobs

Controlling thedeficit

GOP DEM Both Neither Unsure

Source: Politico/GWU Battleground. September 7-9, 2010. N= 1,000 likely voters nationwide. (Lake Research/Tarrance Group).

Margin (Dem minus Rep)

-2

-14

-27

0

0

-1716

17

Additionally, a majority of Americans see the economy as either staying the same or getting worse.

State of the National Economy

72%72%66%66%65%

69%

58%56%

69%66%71%73%

77%

91%

27%27%32%32%32%29%

36%41%

33%

23%26%20%

68%60%

67%65% 68%65%

4%

26%30%

39%

29%31%26%

31%

SeptemberAugustJulyJuneMayApri lMarchFebJanDecNovOctSeptAugJulyJuneMayApri lMarchFebruary

The Same or Worse

Better

Source: http://americanresearchgroup.com/economy/

18

It’s the economy, stupid! In this issue climate, it is hard for other issues to break through.

11

10

9

9

6

3

1

1

1

49The economy

The federal budget deficit

Education

Health Care

The wars in Iraq/Afghanistan

Illegal immigration

Terrorism

Energy and environmental policies

Other

Unsure

Source: CNN/ Opinion Research Poll. September 21-23, 2010. N= 1,010 adults nationwide.

19

Unemployment tops the list of economic issues, followed by the budget deficit and taxes.

18

8

7

6

2

1

1

57Unemployment

The federal budget deficit

Taxes

Mortgages and housing costs

Inflation

Stock Market

(Other)

No Opinion

Source: CNN/ Opinion Research Poll. September 21-23, 2010. N= 1,010 adults nationwide.

A quarter of voters blame Bush for the current economy, while one in five blame Wall Street.

Most Responsible for Current National Economy

8

10

11

15

20

25

Normal economic cycle

Global economic forces

Barack Obama

U.S. Congress

Large financial firms

George W. Bush

Source: Politico/GWU Battleground. September 7-9, 2010. N= 1,000 likely voters nationwide. (Lake Research/Tarrance Group).

20

Among Independents

-27% Large financial firms

-13% George W. Bush

-13% Global economic forces

-11% Congress

-6% Normal economic cycle

-6% Barack Obama

The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are seen as most responsible for the growth of the federal deficit over the past few years.

Most responsible for growth of federal deficit

6

8

28

29

31

36

49

The cost of the Medicare Prescription Drugbenefit

The economic recession that cut tax revenue andrequired support for the unemployed

President Obama's economic recovery orstimulus plan

Bush tax cuts for corporations and top earners

Lobbyists and special interests puttingunneeded spending in the budget

Bailouts of big banks and auto industry

Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan

Source: Democracy Corps, Campaign for America's Future. July 26-29, 2010. N=1,100 likely voters nationwide . (Greenburg Quinlan Rosner)

21

A plurality of Americans are dissatisfied with the way the federal government works, and another one in four are angry.

2

20

52

25

Enthusiastic Satisfied Dissatisfied Angry

22

77

Source: Washington Post/ABC. Aug 30-Sep 2, 2010. N=1,002 adults nationwide.

22

The public expresses discontent with many major institutions. Within the context of elevated economic anxiety, banks, Congress, HMOs, organized labor and big business receive the highest criticism.

Views of Institutions

19% 19%11%

20%22%23%25%27%34%36%36%

40%48%

59%66%

76%

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Source: Gallup, July 8-11, 2010, N=1,020.

23

While three-in-five voters feel the government should still play an active role in the economy, half of those voters are not sure they can trust the government to be effective.

Allstate/National Journal Heartland Monitor Poll, Apr, 2010

Government's Role in the Economic Situation

32%33%

28%

Government is not the solution Government should play an activerole, but can't trust

Government should play an activerole

Which of the following comes closest to your view regarding the proper role of government in the economy?...In the current economic environment, government is not the solution to our economic problems, government is the problem. I would like to see government play an active role in the economy to ensure it benefits people like me, but I am not sure that I can trust government to do this effectively. In the current economic environment, the government must play an active role in regulating the marketplace and ensuring that the economy benefits people like me.

60%

24

This perception of a bleak economy comes from voters’ personal lives: a majority says its personal economic situation is only fair or poor.

Personal Economic Situation

6%

38%

58%

20%

Excellent/Good Only Fair/Poor

Source: Pew Research Center/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll, June 3 - 6, 2010, N=1,002.

*Darker colors indicate intensity

How would you rate your own personal economic financial situation? Would you say you are in excellent shape, good shape, only fair shape, or poor shape financially?

25

Strong majorities believe those at either end of the age spectrum and unmarried women are most likely to have trouble making ends meet. Majorities also believe that working and middle class families have trouble making ends meet, but these views are less intense.

Trouble Making Ends Meet

43%

53%

53%

56%

41%

36%

37%

44%

82%

85%

85%

71%

84%

82%

79%

76%

Women

Latinos or Hispanics

Middle-class families

Working families

Blacks or African Ams

Unmarried women

Senior citizens

Young adults

A lot Some

From your perspective, how much trouble making ends meet do you think each of the following groups faces: a lot of trouble, some, a little, or no trouble at all?*

Source: Wider Opportunities for Women. 1,000 adults nationwide, with oversamples of 100 African-American adults, 100 Latino adults, and 100 adults with incomes $10,000-15,000 annually. May 20-27, 2010. (Lake Research Partners)

26

Ten years ago, about three-in-ten Americans reported that they were living paycheck-to-paycheck all or most of the time. Last year, that number increased to four-in-ten, and now it’s up to 44%. The current data shows that it is also more common for women (47%) to be living paycheck-to-paycheck than it is for men (40%).

Frequency of Living Paycheck to Paycheck*

-22%

-21%

-20%

-24%

-17%

-15%

15%

23%

24%

-58%

-71%

-54%

39%

28%

44%

2000

2009

2010

Never Hardly ever/once in a while Sometimes/Some of the time Always/All of the time Most of the time

Consumer Federation of America/Bank of America: September 11-November 11, 2000 (1,637 adults nationwide); Newsweek: January 14-January 15, 2009 (1,200 adults nationwide); LRP survey for Community Voices: January-February 2010 (1,000 adults nationwide,100 Latinas, 100 African American women, 100 single mothers, 200 low-income women)

* Note wording change in answer categories.

27

Nearly two-thirds of Americans say either they, a family member, or someone they know well has lost a job in the past year. Nearly as many Americans say they have been impacted by a reduction in wages or hours, with a strong majority saying they, a family member, or someone they know well has experienced this hardship in the past year.

Impact of the Recession

63%58%

33%38%

Loss of a job Reduced wages or hours

Impacted you, a family member or someone you know well Has not impacted

Democracy Corps Poll, September 2010. N=1000 voters ntationwide.

I'm going to read you a list of economic experiences some people have recently had. For each one, please tell me if you have directly experienced this in the last year, if your family has directly experienced this in the last year, or if someoneyou know well, like a friend, neighbor or co-worker, has experienced this or if no one you know well has experienced it.

Impacted you personally: 12%

Impacted a family member: 23%

Impacted you personally: 15%

Impacted a family member: 23%

28

29

Job loss, reduced wages, or lost health insurance have impacted a significant portion of voters—especially younger, blue-collar voters.

Have you or your family...

41%

59%

39%44%

51%

38%

28%

34%

27%

Total Blue-collar White voters,younger than 50

Blue-collar White voters, 50or older

Lost job

Reduced wagesLost health ins.

Democracy Corps, August 2010

30

Six-in-ten Americans are concerned about job loss in the next twelve months, and three in ten are very concerned about it.

CBS News Poll, July 2010, N=966.

Job Loss Concern

39%

31% 29%

Very concerned Somewhat concerned Not concerned at all

60% concerned

How concerned are you that in the next 12 months you or someone else in your household might be out of work and looking for a job--very concerned, somewhat concerned, or not concerned at all?

A third of Americans think the stimulus was too large, and nearly half think it has had no impact on the economy so far.

Government's Stimulus Package

27% 28%

11%

34%

Toolarge

Notlarge

enough

Aboutright

Don'tknow

Stimulus Impact on Economy

4%

46%

20%

30%

Don'tknow

No impact

Made itWorse

Made itBetter

CBS News/New York Times: 990 adults nationwide – September 10-14, 2010 31

Message and Positioning

Message Themes for Progressives

Approaches to Use Approaches to AvoidGentle and realistic optimism; we have a difficult road ahead, but we’re starting to

take the steps we need.

Over-selling the accomplishments of Democrats in office.

Populist language. Government should work for regular families, not multi-millionaires

and CEOs.

Talking about the “less fortunate,” government programs to help those in need.

Righteous indignation based on the American values of fairness and opportunity. Make the wealthy pay their fair share, shift

the burden off of the middle class, allow that everyone has the opportunity to

succeed.

Accepting frames of debate based on smaller questions. Instead of talking about

whether business should have emissions regulated, talk about the right to clean air and water, and the principle that polluters

should pay to clean up their mess.

A willingness to fight for what’s right and take a stand, even if it’s politically unpopular.

Talking about policy minutia or using acronyms.

33

Words Matter

Working Families

Guaranteed, Quality,

Affordable Health Care

Manufacturing Jobs in Clean

EnergyGreen Jobs

Universal Coverage

The Middle Class

34

Words to Use Words to AvoidEveryone paying their fair share Taxes

Making the economy work for working families Welfare and subsidies

Getting and keeping good-paying jobs Incentivizing development

Making sure our workers are trained for 21st-century jobs Funding technical education

Accountability Regulations

Rooting out waste Cutting programs

Government that serves everyone, not CEOs and multimillionaires Government programs

Get rid of tricky loopholes and hidden fees Banking regulations

Words That Work: The Economy

People vs. Banks and CEOsA useful frame:

35

Americans respond to messages that evoke achieving the American Dream and strengthening the middle class.

36

52%

52%

53% 76%

79%

82%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

Recapturing American Dream-w/Seniors*

Strengthen Middle Class*

Recapturing the American Dream -w/o Seniors*

Very convincing Somewhat convincing

Top messages on the economy emphasize broad themes, such as recapturing the American Dream and strengthening and building the middle class.

TEXT OF MESSAGES

• [Recapturing the American Dream – Family Economic Security without seniors] The American Dream is about having family economic security and the opportunity to succeed with hard work. In this country we work hard as individuals to get ahead for ourselves and our families and to provide a better chance for the next generation. Family economic security is about a good-paying, secure job, affordable healthcare, and a secure retirement. It’s about more than living paycheck to paycheck. We need to build the middle class and recapture the American Dream by creating good-paying, secure jobs, providing affordable, quality healthcare, and investing in education and training.

• [Strengthen and Build to the Middle Class] The current economic downturn has hit working families the hardest and the longest. Even as they continue to work hard and act responsibly, more and more families are living paycheck to paycheck and are increasingly on the edge of economic crisis. Our economy will only be strong again when our working and middle class families are strong. This means not only helping middle class families reclaim their sense of economic security and strengthening the middle class, but also helping low-income and working families move into the middle class through jobs that come with good wages, benefits, and secure retirement.

• [Recapturing the American Dream – Economic Security w/ Seniors] The American Dream is about having family economic security and the opportunity to succeed with hard work. In this country, we work hard as individuals to get ahead for ourselves and our families and to provide a better chance for the next generation. Family economic security is about a good-paying, secure job, affordable healthcare, and a secure retirement. It’s about more than living paycheck to paycheck. We need to build the middle class, protect our senior citizens who have worked hard all their lives, and recapture the American Dream by creating good, secure jobs, providing affordable, quality healthcare, and investing in education and training.

37

Voters respond to messages that reflect voters’ core beliefs about Social Security: it belongs to the people and represents a promise made to all generations that must be protected and paid back.

38

64%

66%

69%

80%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

*Other priorities/WallStreet

*Broken promise

*Prioritize paying SS backfirst/bailout

*Belongs to the people

Five: Represents your values extremely well

*Split-sampled questions: On a scale that goes from 0 to 5, where 0 means it doesn’t represent your values and positions at all and 5 means it represents your values and positions extremely well, how well does this statement represent your values and positions.

The messages that resonate most with voters reflect their core attitudes about Social Security: it belongs to the people and represents a promise made to all generations that must be protected and paid back.TEXT OF MESSAGES

• [Belongs to the people] Social Security moneys belong to the people who have worked hard all their lives and contributed to the program, not to the government. We must protect Social Security from cuts that will hurt beneficiaries, we cannot let Congress try to use Social Security as a piggy bank. (80% saying “5: represents values extremely well”)

• [Prioritize paying back SS first/bailout] Social Security has a funding gap in the future and that gap needs to be closed. The disagreement in Washington is what to do about it. The answer is pretty clear: The federal government has to pay back the $2.6 trillion it took from the Social Security trust fund. Before Congress even thinks about cutting Social Security benefits, the government must pay back the money it owes the trust fund. We cannot accept that the government has the money to bail out Wall Street banks, but not to pay back Social Security. (69% saying “5: represents values extremely well”)

• [Broken promise] Social Security is a promise made to all generations to provide a basic and reliable income for when they retire, become widowed or disabled, or leave loved ones behind. Americans need to know the promise of Social Security will continue to be met for them. This is one promise we cannot allow Congress to break. We need to make sure we continue to support Social Security without making cuts that will harm current and future generations (Broken Promise: 66% saying “5: represents values extremely well”)

• [Other priorities/Wall Street] Washington should be thinking about getting Americans back to work, protecting Americans from predatory lenders and changing unscrupulous business practices on Wall Street. We shouldn’t expect middle and low income Americans, in the middle of the largest recession since the 1930’s, to have their Social Security cut. We should ask Wall Street bankers to give back their bonuses and we should put a tax on Wall Street, not cut Social Security benefits. (64% saying “5: represents values extremely well”) 39

Celinda Lake, Lake Research PartnersWashington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY| Richmond, VAwww.lakeresearch.com202.776.9066

Populist Anger and the Midterm Elections

A presentation for the Campaign for America’s Future

October 13, 2010