Population Theorists

Malthus’ Theory of Population Growth• In 1798 Thomas Malthus published his views

on the effect of population on food supply. His theory has two basic principles:• Population grows at a geometric rate i.e. 1,

2, 4, 8, 16, 32, etc. • Food production increases at an arithmetic

rate i.e. 1, 2, 3, 4, etc.

Old dead guy

Malthus (cont.)• The consequence of these two principles is that eventually,

population will exceed the capacity of agriculture to support the new population numbers. Population would rise until a limit to growth was reached. Further growth would be limited when: • preventive checks - postponement of marriage (lowering of fertility

rate), increased cost of food etc..

• positive checks - famine, war, disease, would increase the death rate.

Malthusian ideas are often supported by Western governments because it highlights the problem of too many mouths to feed, rather than the uneven distribution of resources (Karl Marx);

Malthus (cont.)

Population grows geometrically….

Population exceeds carrying capacity…

Population is kept in “check”– preventative and/or positive checks

Esther Boserup’s Theory of Population Growth

• In contrast to Malthus, instead of too many mouths to feed, Boserup emphasized the positive aspects of a large population;• In simple terms, Boserup suggested that the more

people there are, the more hands there are to work;• She argued that as population increases, more

pressure is placed on the existing agricultural system, which stimulates invention;• The changes in technology allow for improved crop

strains and increased yields.

Anti-populationists vs. pronatalists• Malthus– anti-populationist• Echoed in recent debates by Paul Ehrlich, author of

The Population Bomb;• Ehrlich believed that the earth’s carrying capacity

would quickly be exceeded, resulting in widespread famine and population reductions;

• Boserup– pronatalist • Echoed in recent debates by Julian Simon, who

opposed Ehrlich by using economic theories; ie. Resources needed to support populations are becoming more abundant, not scarcer;