Population

SOME DISCUSSION QUESTIONS:

• Identify one demographic trend that is likely to affect you at some point during your lifetime.

• Identify one demographic trend that has/will affect Canadian society.

Population and PolicyPopulation and Policy

The main population phenomena are:

FERTILITY

MIGRATION

and MORTALITY.

Processes and StatesProcesses and States

DEMOGRAPHY studies the stock (or state) of populations (their size, distribution and composition) at a given time point and their flow (or processes involving population change).

The stock and flow of population are dynamically interrelated.

For example, P2=P1+B-D+I-E,

where P2 is population at time 2, P1 is population at time 1, B is births, D is deaths, I is immigration and E is emigration.

MalthusMalthus

One of the two classical perspectives on population processes is that of Malthus.

Positive checks on population.

Preventative checks on population.

MarxMarx

The second classical theory of population is Marx’s.

Demographic Transition Demographic Transition TheoryTheory

An important modern demographic theory is the THEORY OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION.

Demographic Transition Demographic Transition TheoryTheory

birth rate

death rate

stage preindustrial early industrial mature industrial

growth slow fast slow

1 2 3

Time

World Population GrowthWorld Population Growth

World Population, 1750-2100 World Population, 1750-2100 (in millions)(in millions)

191835

1244 1403 1437

569

1681

4515

7069

8748

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

1750 1950 1995 2025 2100

developed countriesless developed countries

millions

Year

World Population and Urban World Population and Urban Growth, 1950-2020Growth, 1950-2020

rural

cities<1m

cities1m+

1950

2020

2.5 billion

8.1 billion

The World’s Largest Cities, The World’s Largest Cities, 1950 and 2000 (in millions)1950 and 2000 (in millions)1950

London ======= 6.6

New York ==== 4.2Paris === 3.3Berlin == 2.4Chicago == 1.7Vienna == 1.6Tokyo == 1.5St Ptrsbrg. = 1.4Philadel. = 1.4

2000

Mexico C. ========== 31.0

Sao Paulo ========= 25.8

Tokyo ======== 24.2New York======= 22.8Shanghai ======= 22.7Beijing ======= 19.9Los Ang. ====== 17.1Bombay ====== 16.8Calcutta ======16.7

Population Change Population Change in in Canada: MortalityCanada: Mortality

Life Expectancy

Infant Mortality

Population Change in Population Change in Canada: Canada: Fertility I Fertility I

The baby boom of 1946-66 excepted, there has been a long-term decline in the fertility rate, from 7 births per woman in the 1850s to under 2 in the 1980s.

COHORT COMPLETED FERTILITY

TOTAL FERTILITY RATE

Population Change in Population Change in Canada: Canada: Fertility II Fertility II

Immediate causes

Economic causes

Structural factors

Cultural factors

Population Change in Population Change in Canada: Immigration ICanada: Immigration I

Population Change in Population Change in Canada: Immigration IICanada: Immigration II

Population Growth, Canada by Population Growth, Canada by Province and Territory, 1951-91 (in Province and Territory, 1951-91 (in percent)percent)

161133 143 145

175

228

143121

277299

319

383

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400NFLD

PEI

NS

NB

QUE

ONT

MAN

SASK

ALTA

BC

YUK

NWT

% growth

Canada = 201%

Immigration and Emigration, Immigration and Emigration, Canada, 1988-95 (in ‘000s)Canada, 1988-95 (in ‘000s)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95

immigration

emigration

‘‘000s000s

YearYear

Some Key Demographic Some Key Demographic FormulaeFormulae Birth rate = births/1,000 population

Death rate= deaths/1,000 population

Rate of natural increase = (birth rate - death rate)/10*

Net migration = immigration - emigration

Rate of net migration = (net migration/1,000 population)/10*

Growth rate = rate of natural increase + rate of net migration*

* expressed as percent per year