Population Part IV (A)

Thomas Malthus, Population Bomb?

A Population Bomb?• Thomas Malthus (1766-1834, England)

-Felt population growing exponentially and resources growing linearly

*** Believed people needed to practice ”moral restraint” to lower CBR or

there needed to be a disaster to increase CDR in order to solve population problem

Neo-Malthusians (Supporters of Malthus)

• Two recent issues that invigorate Malthus thought:– 1. many countries experiencing population growth due to transfer of

medical technology – 2. new population “stripping” world of resources

• Neo Malthusians1) Ehrlich (1960s) – warned of a population bomb in 1970s and 1980s because the world’s

population was outpacing food production.– No bomb, no starving! Could there still be something learned from

Ehrlich’s thoughts?2) Robert Kaplan and Thomas Fraser Homer-Dixon– “Survival of the Fittest” (Hunger Games!)

Critics of Malthus

Critics of Malthus1) Esther Boserup and Simon Kuznets-larger population would

stimulate growth, will lead to the production of more food; more people=more consumers, more creativity

2) Julian Simon-more people=more brains3) Friedrich Engels-(Marxist) believed that world has enough resources,

if only those resources were shared equally (critic of Capitalism)-4) Copeland-resources are not fixed, trade allows for potential

elimination of possibilism

Demographic Transition Models (B)

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL

Demographic Transition - the change in population characteristics of a country to reflect medical technology or economic and social development.

Demographic Transition - Stage 1Hunter-gatherer society –population fluctuations depended on supply of meat

and vegetation.

• High Birth Rate (limited use of birth control, children are seen as workers)

– Agricultural society (Agricultural Revolution)• High Death Rate

– High Infant Mortality Rate– Epidemics and plagues – Poor nutrition– Famine– War

• Low Natural Increase Rate • Stationary population growth

• Sign. Today, no country in the world is in Stage 1.

Demographic Transition - Stage 1

Demographic Transition - Stage 2

• High Birth Rate• Declining Death Rate• Divided into Two Parts

1) Industrial Revolution

2) Medical Revolution

• High Natural Increase Rate• Expanding population growth

• Europe and North America entered Stage 2 in the 1800s• Africa, Asia and Latin America entered into Stage 2 in the

early to mid 1900s• European colonization brought medical advancements

• Current Examples: Afghanistan, Many Sub-Saharan African countries

Demographic Transition - Stage 2

Demographic Transition - Stage 3

• Declining Birth Rate– Urbanization– Wealth– Education– Contraceptives

• Low Death Rate• Low Natural Increase Rate• Slow expanding population growth• Desire for smaller families, changes in social trends,

rise in materialism

Europe and North America entered Stage 3 in first half of 1900s Many countries in Latin America and Asia entered Stage 3 in the

second half of the 1900s

Current Examples: Mexico, Panama, South Africa, Chile, China, Brazil

Demographic Transition - Stage 3

Demographic Transition - Stage 4• Low Birth Rate

– Low TFR– Women highly involved in education and workforce

• Low Death Rate• Low to no Natural Increase Rate• Stationary Population Growth

• This stage reflects a highly industrialized, educated society.

Current Examples:– Many European countries– United States– Canada

Demographic Transition - Stage 4

• Death rate slightly exceeds the birth rate, and this causes population decline. • This stage has only been recently recognized, and there are very few countries

that are considered in stage 5.Reasons for low birth rate include:

-A rise in individualism-Greater financial independence of women-lack of resources for future generations-an increase in non traditional lifestyles

Examples of Countries in Stage 5 (very beginning)Russia, Japan, Germany

Demographic Transition - Stage 5