3.1 Human population growth. The Population Explosion – Exponential Growth.
POPULATION GROWTH
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Transcript of POPULATION GROWTH
Population EcologyPopulation Ecology
Population ecology is the study of populations in relation to the environment. It includes environmental influences on population density and distribution, age structure, and variations in population size.
Characteristics of Characteristics of PopulationPopulation
Population size Population
densityDispersion
patternsDemographics Survivorship
curvesPopulation
growth
Population sizePopulation size“In population genetics and
population ecology, population size (usually denoted N) is the number of individual organisms in a population”.
Factors that Govern Population Size1.Crude Birth Rate (CBR)2.Crude Death Rate (CDR)3.Immigration4.Emigration
Factors That Increase Population Size
1.Natality is recruitment to a population through reproduction.
2.Immigration from external populations e.g. Bird migration.
Factor Reducing Population Size
1.Mortality which is the death rate from any source e.g. predation.
2.Emigration, where individuals leave the population for another habitat.
NatalityNatalityThe production of new individuals by birth, hatching, germination or fission
2 aspects of reproduction must be distinguished: Fecundity fertility
NatalityNatalityFecundity-physiological notion that
refers to an organism’s potential reproductive capacity
Fertility-ecological concept based on the no. of viable offspring produced during a period time
Realized fertility and potential fecundity-we must be able to distinguish between them
NatalityNatalityE.g, realized fertility rate for a human pop may be only 1 birth per 15 years per female in the child-bearing ages
While the potential fecundity rate for humans is 1 birth per 10 to 11 months per female in the childbearing ages
MortalityMortalityBiologists-interested not only in why organisms die but also why they die at a given age
Longevity-the age of death of individuals in a population
2 types:◦Potential longevity◦Realized longevity
MortalityMortalityPotential longevity
◦The maximum life span of an individual of a particular sp is a limit set by the physiology of the organism, such that it simply dies of old age
◦The average longevity of individuals living under optimum conditions
◦However, organisms rarely live under optimum conditions-most die from disease, or eaten by predators or succumb to a number of natural hazards
MortalityMortalityRealized longevity
◦The actual life span of an organism
◦Can be measured in the field, while potential longevity only in labs or zoos
examplesexamples
European robin has an average life expectation of 1 year in the wild, whereas it can live at least 11 year in captivity
Have more births than deaths?◦Population increases
Have more deaths than births?◦Population decreases
Have equal amounts of births and deaths?◦Population remains constant
What happens to the What happens to the population when we….population when we….
ImmigrationImmigration
“im”= inMigrate= to move from one
place to anotherImmigration is the individual
movement into an areaAnimals in search of mates and
food in new areas
EmigrationEmigration“E” means ‘out’Migrate means to move from
one place to anotherEmigrate means individuals
moving out of one place and into another
Young wolves and bears leaving as they mature
Shortage of food
NATALITYNATALITYThe birthrate, which is the ratio of total
live births to total population in a particular area over a specified period of time
MORTALITYMORTALITYThe death rate, which is also the ratio
of the total number of deaths to the total population.
IMMIGRATIONIMMIGRATIONThe number of organisms moving into
area occupied by the population is called immigration.
EMIGRATIONEMIGRATIONThe number of organisms moving out
of the area occupied by the population is called emigration.
How to estimate population How to estimate population density?density?Techniques differ between
organisms such that the technique to estimate deer cannot be applied to bacteria or protozoa or vice versa
There are 2 fundamental attributes that affect and ecologists choice of technique for population estimation
2 attributes
Size-small animals/plants are usually more abundantthan large animals/plants
Mobility-based on movements of these organisms
Why the need to estimate Why the need to estimate population density?population density?
Estimates of population are made for two reasons:◦How to quantify nature – ecologist role◦Estimates are allows for comparisons
between different populations in terms of space and time measure
2 BROAD APPROACHES TO ESTIMATE POP DENSITY
Absolute densityNo of individual per area/ per volume
Important for conservation and management
Relative densityComparative no of organisms
Two areas of equal sizes, which area has more organisme.g, between area x and y
Area x has more organism than area y
ABSOLUTE DENSITYABSOLUTE DENSITYMaking total counts and by using sampling methods
Total counts - direct counting of populations- human pop census, - trees in a given area, - breeding colonies can be photographed then later counted
- in general total counts are possible for few animals
Measurements of Absolute Measurements of Absolute densitydensity Sampling methods
◦ to count only a small proportion of the population - sample
Using the sample to estimate the total population
2 general sampling techniques:
1)Use of quadrats2)Capture-recapture method
Use of Quadrats
Count all individuals on several quadrats of known size, then extrapolate the average count to the whole area
Quadrat- a sampling area of any shape (may be a rectangle, triangle or circle)
3 requirements:• the pop in the quadrat must be determined exactly• area of the quadrant must be known• quadrant/s must be representative of the area • achieved by random sampling
Quadrant sampling in Quadrant sampling in plant populationplant population
Conduct a transect in the upland hardwood forest
3 transect line, 110 meters long, count all trees taller than 25cm within 1meter of each line
By utilizing the quadrant method sampling for old trees and seedlings, we can determine if populations were likely to change over time
Capture Recapture Method
Capture, marking, release, and recapture-important for mobile animalsWhy?-it allows not only an estimate of density but also estimates of birth rate
and death rate for the population being studied
Capture animal, mark (tag) them and then release them
Peterson method:Involves 2 sampling periods
Capture, mark and release at time 1Capture and check for marked animals at time 2
Time intervals between the 2 samples must be short because this method assumes a closed population with no recruitment of new individuals into the
Population between time 1 and 2 and no losses of marked individuals
Formula for capture-Formula for capture-recapture methodrecapture method
Marked animals in 2nd sample = Marked animals in 1st sampleTotal caught in 2nd sample Total population size
e.g of capture recapture e.g of capture recapture methodmethodDahl marked trout in small Norwegian lakes to estimate the size of the population that was subject to fishing. He marked and released 109 trout, and in 2nd sample a few days later caught 177 trout, of which 57 were marked. From the data, what is the estimate population size?
e.g of capture recapture e.g of capture recapture methodmethodBy using the formula
57 = 109177 Total pop size
Total pop size = (109 X 177)57
= 338 trout
RELATIVE DENSITYRELATIVE DENSITYTraps – no caught per day per trap –
animals caught will depend on their density, activity and range of movement, skill in placing traps – rough idea of abundance – night flying insects, pitfall traps for beetles, suction traps for aerial insects
Fecal pellets – rabbits, deer, field mice – provides an index of pop size
Vocalization frequency – bird calls per 10 mins, can be used for frogs, cicadas, crickets
Pelt records – trapper records dates back 300 years – of lynx
Relative densityRelative densityCatch per unit effort – index of fish
abundance – no of fish per cast net or no of fish per 1 hour trawling
Number of artifacts – thing left behind – pupal cases of emerging insects
Questionnaires – to sportsmen (eg fish)and trappers
Cover - % ground surface covered – in botany, invertebrate studies of the rocky intertidal zone
Feeding capacity – bait taken – for rats and mice – index of density
Roadside counts – birds observed while driving standard distances
Population dispersion patternsRandom-when the position of each
individuals in a pop is independent of the others
Uniform-it results as a form of some negative interactions
Common among animal pop where individuals defend an area for their own exclusive use (territoriality) or in plant pop where severe competition exist for belowground resources, i.e water or nutrients
Population dispersion Population dispersion patternspatternsClumped-where individuals occur in groups
Reason-suitable habitat or resources may be distributed as patches on a larger landscape
Population growthPopulation growthRefers to how the number of individuals in a population increases or decreases with time (N, t)
Reflects the difference between rates of birth and death
in pop, if new births occur in pop, if death occurs
2 types of pop growth
Exponential population growth
dN = rmaxNdt
Logistic population growth
dN = rmaxN (K-N)dt K
Population
Growth
Mathematicall
y Defined
Exponential GrowthExponential GrowthContinuous population growth in an
unlimited environment can be modeled exponentially.
dN / dt = rmax N
Appropriate for populations with overlapping generations.◦As population size (N) increases, rate of
population increase (dN/dt) gets larger.
Exponential GrowthExponential GrowthFor an exponentially growing
population, size at any time can be calculated as:
Nt = Noert
Nt = number individuals at time t.N0 = initial number of individuals.e = base of natural logarithms.r (= rmax ) = per capita rate of increase.t = number of time intervals.
PracticePracticeIf the human population size in
1993 was 5.4 billion, what was the projected population size in the year 2000? r=0.0139
No = population size in 1993 = 5.4 billion
t = 7 years (year 2000 - 1993)r = 0.0139
Nt = No ertNt = (540,000,000) e(0.0139)(7)Nt /540,000,000 = e 0.0973
Dust off your high school math skills. To get rid of the exponent, simply take the (ln) of both sides of the equation. Remember, when we take the natural log of a quotient we end up taking the ln of one value and subtracting it from the ln of the other value (see below).
ln (Nt /540,000,000) = ln (e 0.0973)[here we're taking the natural log
of the quotient]= ln(Nt) - ln(540,000,000) =
0.0973[rewrite it as natural log of one
value minus natural log of the other value]
Nt = 595,000,000 or 5.95 billion
Logistic Population GrowthLogistic Population Growth
As resources are depleted, population growth rate slows and eventually stops: logistic population growth.◦Sigmoid (S-shaped) population growth curve.◦Carrying capacity (K) is the number of
individuals of a population the environment can support. Finite amount of resources can only support a
finite number of individuals.
Logistic Population GrowthLogistic Population Growth
dN/dt = rmaxN(1-N/K)
rmax = Maximum per capita rate of increase under ideal conditions.
When N nears K, the right side of the equation nears zero.◦As population size increases, logistic growth
rate becomes a small fraction of growth rate. Highest when N=K/2. N/K = Environmental resistance.
Problem Problem
Suppose a population of butterflies is growing according to the logistic equation. If the carrying capacity is 500 butterflies and r = 0.1 individuals/(individual*month), what is the maximum possible growth rate for the population?
To solve this, you must first determine N, population size. From the plot of dN/dt vs. N, we know that the maximum possible growth rate for a population growing according to the logistic model occurs when N = K/2, here N = 250 butterflies. Plugging this into the logistic equation:
DN/dt = rN [1- (N/K)]= 0.1(250)[1-(250/500)]= 12.5 individuals / month
Limits to Population GrowthLimits to Population GrowthEnvironment limits population growth by
altering birth and death rates. Density-dependent factors
Disease, Parasites, Resource Competition Populations do not show continuous geometric increase When density increases other organisms reduces the fertility
and longevity of the individuals in the population This reduces the rate of increase of the pop until eventually
the pop ceases to grow The growth curve is defined as the sigmoid curve, S –
shaped K = carrying capacity (upper asymptote or maximum value)
– the maximum number of individuals that environment can support
Density-independent factors Natural disasters Climate
r- and k-speciesr- and k-speciesCharacteristics of r- species high biotic potential Rapid development Early reproduction Single period reproduction per
individual Short lifecycle Small body size Regulated by the density-
independent factor
Characteristics of k- species low biotic potential slow development delayed reproduction multiple period reproduction per
individual long lifecycle large body size Regulated by the density-dependent
factor
Life history strategiesLife history strategies
K and r selection (MacArthur and Wilson 1967)
r-selected species•r refers to the per capita rate of increase•Selection favoring rapid growth•Should be favored in new or disturbed environments•Less competition
K-selected species•K refers to carrying capacity•More prominent in species that are typically at their carrying capacity •Favors more efficient use of resources•Live with competition