Population Forecast and Malthus
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Transcript of Population Forecast and Malthus
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Population Forecast and Malthus
Chapter 2 sections 6 – 8
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Terms/Concepts• Demographics• Thomas Malthus and his theory
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Demographics• Demographics - the study of
population
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Declining Birth Rates• Population hit a peak of growth around
1970 • NIR has been declining on a global
scale- it now sits at 1.2%• Two population reduction
strategies:– 1. Education and health care– 2. Distribution of contraceptives
• Due to cultural and religious beliefs the most effective method varies from country to country
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Declining Birth Rates• Lowering birth rates through health
care– Works together with bettering economic
conditions in a given area – In nations where women are able to
attend school longer the birth rates are lower than nations who do not have women receiving a full education
– Well-developed health care has helped infant mortality rate decrease
– Education about contraceptives and sexually transmitted diseases has also played a major role in the decline in birth rates
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Declining Birth Rates• Lowering birth rates through contraception
– Economic development will help decrease birth rates in the long run
– In societies that have lower status of women there are higher birth rates as compared to countries with the opposite
– Nations that show lower contraception use show higher birth rates
– The main reason that contraceptive use is not as wide spread is due to religious beliefs
– We have seen major growth in the last couple years in nations who do not have either contraceptives or health care education
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Population Futures• World population will still increase,
but at a slower rate than in the past.– The principal reason for declining
natural increase rates in less developed countries today is declining birth rates
• Components of future population growth
– Fertility is the primary determinant.
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Population Futures• Demographic transition possible
stage 5– Negative NIR
• Many developed countries are predicted to experience population decline.– Factor of more elderly than young
population in these countries– Fewer young women who will be
entering their childbearing years
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Population Futures
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Population Futures – India vs. China
• These two countries comprise more than one-third of the world’s population.
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Population Futures – India vs. China
• India’s population policies– Beginning in 1971, citizens paid to be
sterilized– Now a stronger emphasis on education
as family planning – Limited success
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Population Futures – India vs. China
• China’s population policies– Beginning in 1980, one-child policy– Financial and other incentives to limit
family size– Greater prosperity in China has led to a
relaxation of one-child policy– Now a stronger emphasis on education
as family planning• Family-planning fees
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Who is this?
What did he believe about Population?
What do you think about his theory?
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Malthus Grim Forecast
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Malthus Grim Forecast• Malthus’s theory and reality
– Globally, Malthus’s theory has not been supported during the past 50 years.• World food production has increased
faster than the NIR.– Hunger and famine are distribution
problems and not production problems.– Cultural, economic, and technological
change has slowed population growth.
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Where do you think the US falls in terms
of Resources?
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Do you think the US should send aid to countries that are
ailing?
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Population Growth• Population Growth Video
– Hans Rosling
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Terms/Concepts• Demographics• Thomas Malthus and his Theory