Population Considerations for the Nuclear Field

Danny Smith, PhD, PECOPAFS Quarterly Meeting

June 3, 2011

PREVIEW

• Basic Nuclear Concepts

• Shoreham (Wading River, New

York)

• Fukushima Daiichi (Okuma and

Futaba)

• Chernobyl (Pripyat, Ukraine)June 3, 2011 2

Basic Nuclear Concepts

Radiation versus Radioactive Material

Radiation: energy, transience

Radioactive Material: substance, persistence

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Basic Nuclear Concepts

Chronic Dose versus Acute Dose

Chronic: smaller exposures, longer exposure periods, genetic damage

Acute: larger exposures, shorter exposure periods, immediate tissue damage

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Basic Nuclear Concepts

Time, Distance, Shielding

Time: minimum exposure duration

Distance: maximum distance from source

Shielding: maximum absorber between source and receptor

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Basic Nuclear Concepts

Latent Cancer Goal

10 probability of fatal cancer for members of the public

Higher probability allowed for nuclear workers

-6

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Basic Nuclear Concepts

Dose Perspective (in mSv per yr or

event) 0.04 NY to LA flight 0.4 Dose from typical diet 1 EPA public dose limit 2 Natural background 10 average CT scan 100 Evident lifetime cancer increase 1000 Temporary radiation sickness 10000 Fatal dose100000 Immediate fatal dose

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Shoreham (Long Island)

Background• On Long Island Sound about 60

miles from Manhattan• Largely rural in 1960’s• Increasing demand for electric

power---------------------

• LILCO filed NRC application for 540 MW nuclear plant in 1968

• Estimated cost of $70 million

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Shoreham

Complications• Increased designed output to

820 MW• Two additional plants proposed

by LILCO closer to Manhattan• Protests by residents killed

plans for the two additional plants

• Three Mile Island Accident in 1979

• Revamped NRC regulations• Chernobyl accident in 1986• Long Island demographics

changed

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Shoreham

Key Events• 1981NRC declared the design safe• 1983 Suffolk County declared

evacuation impossible; Gov. Cuomo concurred

• 1985 NRC approved low-power testing

• Equivalent to 2 full power days• 1989 Gov. Cuomo and LILCO

reached agreement on shutdown of ShorehamJune 3, 2011 10

Shoreham

Consequences• Shoreham sold to LIPA for $1• $6 billion cost of Shoreham to be

repaid with electricity surcharge• $50 million paid to Philadelphia

Power to take slightly used fuel• $186 million cost of

decontamination and decommissioning

• NEVER connected to the gridJune 3, 2011 11

Shoreham Twin at Waterford, CT

• 50 miles away on Long Island Sound

• Operational in 5 years• Cost $100 million• Continued operation until 1998

What was the difference?

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Fukushima Daiichi

Background•6 Boiling Water Reactors: 3 operating, 3 under maintenance (total 4700 MW)•Located in the towns of Okuma and Futaba, Fukushima Prefecture •Approximately 50,000 households within 20 km•Design basis 19 foot tsunami

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Fukushima Daiichi

Accident Sequence•Tohoku Earthquake: auto shutdown•46 foot tsunami•Offsite Power: connection destroyed•Diesel Generators: flooded•Battery Power: limited life•Hydrolysis via hot zirconium cladding•Hydrogen conflagration

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Fukushima Daiichi

Reactor Consequences•Partial core meltdown in Units 1, 2, 3•Hydrogen explosions in Units 1 and 3; Unit 2?•Exposed spent fuel in Unit 1, 3, and 4 pools?•Release of about one tenth of the activity released from Chernobyl•24 million gallons of contaminated water•Accident rating of 7 for Units 1, 2, and 3 •Goal: cold shutdown in 6 to 9 months•Estimated 30 years to clean up site

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6

Fukushima Daiichi

Demographic Consequences•20 km exclusion zone•30 km evacuation zone•Extermination of contaminated livestock•Destruction of contaminated crops•Water contamination scare in Tokyo

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Basic Nuclear ConceptsDose Perspective (in mSv per yr or event) 0.04 NY to LA flight 0.4 Dose from typical diet 1 EPA public dose limit 2 Natural background 10 average CT scan 100 Evident lifetime cancer increase 1000 Temporary radiation sickness 10000 Fatal dose100000 Immediate fatal dose

June 3, 2011 16b

Fukushima Daiichi

Worker Dose and Implications for

Oldsters •Normal worker dose Limit: 50 mSv•250 mSv for emergency conditions•Dose is based on latent cancer risk•Latent cancer incubation period: 20 to 30 years •Older workers asked to volunteer•Skilled Veterans Corps

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Fukushima Daiichi

Skilled Veterans Corps

“Radiation exposure of the generation that will reproduce the next generation should be avoided.”

-- Yasuteru Yamada (age 72)

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Chernobyl

Consequences•Dozens of deaths from acute exposure•Thousands of excess cancer deaths•30 km exclusion zone•140 million curies released•Damage: $100’s of billions•Population displaced: over 100,000

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Basic Nuclear ConceptsDose Perspective (in mSv per yr or event) 0.04 NY to LA flight 0.4 Dose from typical diet 1 EPA public dose limit 2 Natural background 10 average CT scan 100 Evident lifetime cancer increase 1000 Temporary radiation sickness 10000 Fatal dose100000 Immediate fatal dose

June 3, 2011 19b

Chernobyl: Contaminated Areas

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Chernobyl

Interesting USSR Responses •Distribution of contaminated foods throughout Russian republics•By decree, radiation from Chernobyl not allowed as cause of death•“Washing” of clouds moving toward Moscow

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Chernobyl

Washing of Clouds •Seeding to cause rainfall•Less populated area selected (Novozibkov) •Total population of about 70,000•Approximately 10,000 times greater than normal radioactive material in soil•95% of dose to downwinders is from food, water, and milk intake•Coffin supplement

June 3, 2011 22