Population - Climb and Collapse and the Open-space Delusion ... (previous ppt 2)

8/14/2019 Population - Climb and Collapse and the Open-space Delusion ... (previous ppt 2)

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What Every Citizen Should Know About Our Planet

IIPopulation Growth and

the Open-space Delusion


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This PowerPoint presents an abbreviated overview of the following topics

1. Climb and Collapse

2. The potentially-calamitous -

(including examples from Easter Islandand outbreaks of dinoflagellate red-tide)

For additional detail see other PowerPoints and PDFs in this collection


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This PowerPoint presents a quick andabbreviated overview of the following topics

3. Earths surface layers of atmosphereand seas as Razor-thin films

and

4. Climate, CO 2 , and No other animals do this.

For additional detail see other PowerPoints and PDFs in this collection


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Population

Climb and CollapseEvents

The reason that biologists talk aboutclimb and collapse scenarios

Is because they really do occur


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The graphs below summarize the results of two classicstudies of reindeer herds on islands off Alaska.

Island one Island two

In each case, a period of exponential growth was followed bya catastrophic 99% die-off as each population collapsed.

After Scheffer, 1951 After Klein, 1968


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An initial population of less than

thirty reindeer grew slowly at first.

Growth was exponential however,and by 1928, turned sharply upward

until reachin a eak of In Scheffers study

(1910 to 1948),the forty square mile island

had no bears, wolves, or

competitors

more than 2000 reindeer.

This was followed by a decade-longcollapse with 99% of the herd

wiped out as the die-off occurred

Did you notice the gap ?( No data could be collected during World War II )


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In a 1968 scientific paper, Klein reported on a herd of reindeer that he had studied between 1944 and 1964.

On an Alaskan island withno wolves, bears, or

competitors, the initialpopulation of 29 reindeer

grew exponentially untilpeaking at more than6000 animals in 1963.

In this study, however, the collapse occurred overthe course of a single year and 99% of the herd

was wiped out as the die-off occurred


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It should at least be provocative, if not disconcerting, thatin each instance, the reindeer populations occupied

Island one Island two

less than ONE-TENTHof ONE PERCENT of the areatheoretically-available to them at the time of the collapse

After Scheffer, 1951 After Klein, 1968


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It is also sobering to noticethat a graph of our own

population growth over thepast ten millennia is,

if anything,

far more pronounced

than that seen in theclimb-and-collapse disaster

in either of the reindeer herds


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Population Growth andthe

Open-space Delusion

Part Two


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Today there is a widely-held

MISPERCEPTION that human populationgrowth cannot be truly serious as long as

vast amounts of open space remain.

Such open-space suppositions mislead usbecause they tempt us into complacency.

Real-world populations of marine dinoflagellates such as

Karenia brevis prove provocative and may have somethingto tell us about ourselves.


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In the marineenvironment, real-world

dinoflagellatepopulations such asKarenia brevis

produce red-tides andtheir associated fish-kills a

c e D e l u s

i o n

when their populationsreach concentrations of

100,000 to 1,000,000 ormore Karenia brevis cells

per liter T h e

O p e n - s


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Because each cell

releases, on an ongoingbasis, small amounts of

poisonous brevetoxins,

a c e

D e l u s

i o n

toxins reaches calamitouslevels within the

environment

in which the populationresides

T h e

O p e n - s


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Thus, Karenia brevis and

similar red-tide dinoflagellates

constitute quintessentialexamples of population

calamities a c e

D e l u s

i o n

that arise even while vastamounts of open-space

remain theoretically-available

in environments that appear tobe ALMOST ENTIRELY EMPTY T h

e

O p e n - s


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To illustrate this, wehave prepared the

illustration shown here

a c e

D e l u s

i o n

The dot in the imagedenotes

two one-thousandths

of one percent T h e

O p e n - s


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while the remaining99.998 72% of the

rectangle represents a c e

D e l u s

i o n

an enormousquantity

of unoccupied

"empty space T h e

O p e n - s


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Thus, in a one liter watersample from a red-tide, thepopulation of K. brevis cells

residing in that liter physically occupy

-

a c e

D e l u s

i o n

thousandths of one percent

of the volumeremaining theoretically-

available to them T h e

O p e n - s


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In a proportional way, the small dotin the illustration depicts the areaneeded to accommodate all one

million Karenia brevis cells a c e

D e l u s

i o n

For an outline of the supportingmathematics, see our related PDF

T h e

O p e n - s


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a c e

D e l u s

i o n

In other words, despite anapparently enormous

amount of open space,

T h e

O p e n - s and despite the fact that the

Karenia brevis population

occupies a VOLUMETRICALLY-INSIGNIFICANTportion of thearea or volume that appears to remain available,


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they have,by their combined overpopulation

and their production of harmfulwastes,

a c e

D e l u s

i o n

managed to calamitously-damagethe environment in which they

reside

T h e

O p e n - s


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a set of conditions which would seem to be worth noting a c e

D e l u s

i o n

since our own species exhibits anextraordinarily similar pattern of behavior

T h e

O p e n - s


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a c e

D e l u s

i o n

Notice then, that in all three of our population

T h e

O p e n - s

growth/population collapse examples

(two reindeer herds and

dinoflagellate red-tides)


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a c e

D e l u s

i o n

Real-world population disasters

commonly occur

even when enormous quantities(99.9% plus )

of area or volume

T h e

O p e n - s

Why should we imagine that our own species is invulnerable?


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This, of course, is not tonecessarily suggest a directapplicability of dinoflagellate

impacts and trajectories

a c e

D e l u s

i o n

to humanitys own globaltrajectories and impacts today

T h e

O p e n - s


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However, it is at least provocativeto consider that today our own

species, surrounded by aseemingly enormous atmosphereand seemingly vast amounts of

open space a c e

D e l u s

i o n

T h e

O p e n - s

also appears to be well on its way, via an ongoing release of an assortment of industrial and societal wastes,

to a significant alteration of the entire gaseousenvironment in which we live

(not to mention the catastrophic physicaldamage that we inflict everywhere else)


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Given the currentdemographic corner intowhich we seem to have

painted ourselves, a c e

D e l u s

i o n

and with our 7 th , 8th , and 9 th

billions on-trackto arrive between now and

mid-century,

T h e

O p e n - s


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one would hopethat we are collectively smarter thana mindless population of one-celled

dinoflagellates that repeatedlycascade themselves toward calamity

even while occupying less than2/1000 ths of 1%

of the total volume in which asampling resides


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Invoking sobriety, however,

we may actually be following atrajectory that is provocatively

similar to that of thedinoflagellates,

because our own species,like the red-tide dinoflagellates

of marine habitats,

releases chemical wastesand toxins into our surroundings.


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Worse still, from at least one point of view,

we may actually beon a trajectory

?? Worse than dinoflagellates ??

d i n o f l a g e l l a t e s

? ?

that isconsiderably

WORSEthan that of

the dinoflagellates ? ?

W o r s e t h a n


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(And multiple orders of magnitude worse, at that)

for dinoflagellates release d i n o f l a g e l l a t e s

? ?

only their metabolic, cellular,and biological wastes into

their environment

? ?

W o r s e t h a n


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In our own case, however, werelease

NOT ONLYour biological and metabolic wastes,

but also an d i n o f l a g e l l a t e s

? ?

UNPRECEDENTEDavalancheof societal and industrial wastes

that are being ever-amplified with ourgrowing numbers and increasing industrialization ? ?

W o r s e t h a n


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Part Three

Earths layers of atmosphere andseas as

razor-thin surface films


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In addition, we show elsewhere

that the seeming immensity of earthsatmosphere and seas is also an illusion s u

r f a c e f i l m s

another mistakenSUPPOSITION

that invites complacency R a z o r

t h i n


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Because three-quarters of the earth's surface iscovered with lakes, rivers, oceans, seas, and ice,

it is both easy and descriptive topicture our home as "a water planet

that could easily be known as s u r f a c e f i l m s

Planet Ocean

On the other hand, if we consider earth's oceans andatmosphere as strictly surface features of our planet

an entirely different assessment presents itself

R a z o r

t h i n


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For example, 99.94% of our planet consistsof its crust, mantle, and molten interior,

and the thin layer of water that we refer to as an oceanexists only as a thin and precarious surface film

that is only six one-hundredths of s u r f a c e f i l m s

one percent as thick as the earth itself

To proportionally illustrate this depth to scale on aclassroom globe, we would need a thin film of water

just twelve one-thousandths of one inch deep toaccurately convey the depth of the earth's oceans

R a z o r

t h i n


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Likewise, razor-thin films shows that earth'sseemingly-enormous atmosphere also qualifies

s u r f a c e f i l m s

as a thin and precarious surface film

which astronauts and cosmonauts have likenedto "a single layer of skin on an onion. R a

z o r

t h i n


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Review

Key Ideas So Far

Climb and Collapse Disasters

Earths atmosphere and seasas Razor - thin Films

Worse than Dinoflagellates ?


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Next

Climate, CO 2,

and i m a l s

D o

T h i s

No other animals do this.

N o

O t h e r

A n


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Although our own pollution is in some

ways reminiscent of that produced bypopulation explosions of dinoflagellates

in a marine environment,

there is a disturbing exceptionality i m a l s

D o

T h i s

to our own pollution

because it consists of FAR MOREthan our biological and metabolic

wastes N o

O t h e r

A n


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Consider, for example, an ordinaryperson living in an industrialized country

One's daily body wastes are again present, of course,but our biological wastes are natural products

that have little impact on global systems

i m a l s

D o T

h i s

ext, owever, env s on t s same personin an automobile, backed up in

crowded traffic on a busy eight-lane highway,

surrounded in every direction by hundredsof cars and trucks and buses, each spewing

exhaust from an internal combustion engine N o

O t h e r

A n


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This illustrates that we are individually

contributing MUCH MORE than our body wastesto our surroundings

And the pollutants that we emit, of course(about a pound of CO 2 per mile) i m

a l s

D o T

h i s

are NOT rare or occasional wastes ,but are daily, ongoing wastes

that we generate again and again throughout our lives N

o O t h e r

A n


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We are the only animals on earth that do this

and we repeat this behavior againand again, every day,

in Los Angeles, Beijing, Mumbai, Tokyo, Karachi, Jakarta,Marseilles, New York City, Cairo, Rome, and Rio de i m

a l s

D o T

h i s

Janiero,

releasing multiple billions of tons of wastesendlessly and relentlessly into

the thin layer of air that makes up earth's atmosphere N o

O t h e r

A n


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We are the only animals on earth that do this,and our daily demands are not yet finished

i m a l s

D o T

h i s

N o

O t h e r

A n


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We now switch on ourheating or air-conditioning systems,

run our dishwashers and clothes dryers,

operate lawnmowers and weed-trimmers,refrigerators and freezers, v e

E V E R d o n e t h i s

our street lights, fluorescent lights, toaster-ovens,microwaves, hair-dryers, steel mills, shopping malls,

bowling lanes, televisions,and hot-water heaters N o o t h e r a n

i m a l s h


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And we repeat these and similar activitiesEVERY DAY

so that in serving us, our power plantsrelease tons upon tons of additional wastes,

relentlessly and endlessly ,into the onion-skin-thin la er of air v

e E V E R d o n e t h i s

that comprises the atmosphere

N o o t h e r a n

i m a l s h


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We are the ONLY animals that do this,

or that have EVER done this,

and to these we have yet to add wastes v e E V E R d o n e t h i s

,

throw-away containers, and millions of items

that have been shippedhalfway around the world N o o t h e r a n

i m a l s h


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No other animals on earth

SUPPLEMENTtheir biological and metabolic wastes in this way

v e E V E R d o n e t h i s

No other animals on earthhave EVERsupplemented their

biological and metabolic wastes in this way N o o t h e r a n

i m a l s h


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And even dinoflagellates,in the worst of red tide outbreaks

that have ever occurred,

have NEVER supplemented their cellularand metabolic wastes in this way.


And our EXCEPTIONALITYin this behavioris not an incidental or minimal

footnote to our biology

it is a pronounced and all-encompassingcharacteristic of our civilizations and our species N

o o t h e r a n

i m a l s h


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How can we imagine that endless billionsof us can endlessly behave in this way

without calamitous repercussions? v e

E V E R d o n e t h i s

If we intend to enjoy such extravagance,our populations must be smaller

N o o t h e r a n

i m a l s h


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Even if world population did not grow at all,

these and similar impacts might be expectedto DOUBLE as the world's poorest nations industrialize

and seek to emulate our own standard of living

Yet, even though the earth's atmosphereis not responding very well to our current assaults,

we nevertheless appear intent upon

adding our 7th, 8th, and 9th billionsbetween now and mid-century


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A provocative perspective recently appeared inHOT, FLAT, AND CROWDED (Friedman, 2008).

Author Friedman cites California Institute of Technology chemist Nate Lewis as follows:


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"Imagine you are driving your car and every mile youdrive you throw a pound of trash out your window.

And everyone else on the freeway in their cars and trucksare doing the exact same thing, and people drivingHummers are throwing two bags out at a time one outthe driver-side window and one out the assen er-side v

e E V E R d o n

e t h i s

window.

Well, that is exactly what we are doing; you just cant seeit. Only what we are throwing out is a pound of CO 2

thats what goes into the atmosphere, on average, everymile we drive. N o o t h e r a n

i m a l s h


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Multiple Ordersof MAGNITUDE WORSE

To summarize, it is provocative that calamitousred-tides like those produced by Karenia brevis


population growth associated with poisonous wastes)

routinely trigger catastrophic consequences in the

environment in which they reside. N o o t h e r a n

i m a l s h


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Today, in a similar way, mankinds release of

environmental wastes and toxins characterizes our ownpopulation explosion.

Unfortunately, however, we are not releasing only our v e E V E R d o n e t h i s

, ,surroundings.

N o o t h e r a n

i m a l s h


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Instead, we are supplementing our biological wastes, in away that is UNPRECEDENTED in the history of life on earth,

with tons upon tons of societal and industrial wastes


so that WE may be embarked on a trajectory thatis even worse than that of red-tide dinoflagellates

and multiple orders of magnitude worse, at that.

N o o t h e r a n

i m a l s h


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Thus, the widely-held supposition that theexistence of vast amounts of open space somehow

exempts us from population calamity

is nothing more c e s u p p o s

i t i o n

an an us on

a dangerously-erroneousopen-space delusion.

T h e

O p e n - s p


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Footnote

In his book C OLLAPSE(2005), Jared Diamondrecounts the collapse of the original human

population living on Easter Island

And just as it proved provocative to calculate c e s u p p o s

i t i o n

the open-space remaining during populationexplosions of red-tide dinoflagellates,

a similar assessment can be made of the peak human population on Easter Island

at the onset of its collapse T h e

O p e n - s p


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Therefore, in Wecskaop and inour posted PDF on this topic,

we analyze Easter Island's total area (open space) atthe onset of the collapse of its human population.

The calculations hint that the island's human c e s u p p o s

i t i o n

99 . 999 97% of the island's totalarea remained unoccupied

and " vast amounts of open-space still remained supposedly-available T h e

O p e n - s p


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It is interesting to note that the results of

the dinoflagellate analysis (2/1000ths of 1%)

show such an unexpected similarity to asimilar analysis applied to the historical c e

s u p p o s

i t i o n

(less than 3/1000ths of 1%)

T h e

O p e n - s p


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A major difference, of course, is that dinoflagellate impactsarise from wastes released into their surroundings,

while the impacts of the human population onEaster Island (at a pre-industrial stage of development)

c e s u p p o s

i t i o n

arose from physical damage to their surroundingsinvolving deforestation and over-exploitation

of island birds, seabirds, and vegetation.

T h e

O p e n - s p


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Today, however, our highly -industrialized populations have:

1: greatly-amplified physical impacts

think of chain saws lo in concessions as halt i m a l s

D o T

h i s

paving, and industrialized fishing fleets, for example)

and

2: our impacts are global N

o O t h e r

A n


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And thirdly, as we have become industrialized,we have now joined

(and enormously surpassed )dinoflagellate populations as a species that

produces and releases wastes into our environment.

Thus, in addition to our greatly-amplified physical i m a l s

D o T

h i s

damage and an enormous world populationthat will see us add our 7 th , 8 th , and 9 th

billions between now and mid-century,

we must now add our unprecedented production of industrial and societal wastes. N

o O t h e r

A n


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but our species alone supplements its biological wastes with anon-going, ever-increasing, and unparalleled avalanche of

industrial and societal wastes which is:

Therefore, not only do we release the normal cellular andbiological wastes to which natural systems are generally adapted,

(a) unique among all animals on earth,

(b) unique among all animal species that have ever lived ,

and


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(c) is multiple orders of

magnitude worse

than any catastrophic outbreakof dinoflagellate red-tide i m

a l s

D o T

h i s

in the history of the earth

N

o O t h e r

A n


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i m a l s

D o T

h i s

N

o O t h e r

A n

A continuation of todays demographic tidal wave may constitute thegreatest single risk that our species has ever undertaken


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For further information, see our book Wecskaopand/or other PowerPoints and PDFs in this series


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This PowerPoint features excerpts from

Anson, A. 2008. What Every Citizen Should Know About Our Planet.

Used with permission.


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The book version of Wecskaop is availableat 386-673-5576

Population - Climb and Collapse and the Open-space Delusion ... (previous ppt 2)

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