Population and

Scarcity

Environment and SocietyLecture 1

The Problem of Exponential Growth

Reverend Dr. Thomas Robert Malthus

(1766 – 1834)

• Essay on the Principle of Population (1798)

The Problem of Exponential Growth

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PopulationPeriods of Demographic Crisis and Correction

Argument 1:

The Problem of Exponential Growth

Argument 2:

Welfare policies for the poor are counter-productive and contributes to higher rates of population growth.

The Problem of Exponential Growth

Argument 3:

Remedy is the expansion of moral restraint (especially of women!).

“It can scarcely be doubted that, in modern Europe, a much larger proportion of women pass a considerable part of their lives in the exercise of virtue than in past times and among uncivilized nations” (Malthus 1992, Book 2, 43-4)

“In some of the southern countries where every impulse may be almost immediately indulged, the passion sinks into mere animal desire …” (Malthus 1992, Book 4, 212)

What are the problems with the Malthusian argument?

Complicating the Malthusian Argument

Paul Ehrlich and John Holdren (1974)

The Neo-Malthusian Arguments

Population (especially the affluent ones) requires the most immediate attention.

Paul Ehrlich (1974)

No, technology as the greatest influence on environmental impact.

Barry Commoner (1988)

Technology create impacts, but tech development will soon lower environmental impact ...

Simon Kuznets (1973)

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Per Capita Income

Turning Point

Environment Worsens

Environment Improves

Environmental Kuznets Curve

The Question of LimitsCarrying Capacity

The theoretical limit of a given population that a system can sustain. Example: Earth can only sustain 2 Billion people who have the same consumption patterns as US Americans (Chambers et al. 2002)

The Question of Limits

Ecological Footprint

The theoretical spatial extent of the earth’s surface required to sustain an individual, group, system, organization (measured in GHa)

Global Hectares (productivity of all biologically productive areas) = 11.3 billion hectares for the planet

Global Hectares Per Capita (global hectares of nation / population of nation)

The Question of LimitsClub of Rome’s Limits to Growth

Does Population Induce Innovation?The Case of Agriculture (Ester Boserup’s Thesis, 1965)

Shifting Cultivation Induced Intensification

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Does Population Induce Innovation?

The Green Revolution

But not all countries are growing exponentially?

But not all countries are growing exponentially?

Demographic Transition Model (DTM) – predictable shifts in birth and death rates associated with modernization

Some have done extreme interventions …

Some have done extreme interventions …

What are the good and the bad sides of these population policies?

Alternative interventions …

What have we learned?

• Is there a link between population, scarcity and environmental impacts?

• Is population alone enough to explain the state of the environment?

• Would we be able to predict population trends based on environmental limits alone?

• Are we able to control population and is it ideal?

There is still a lot of debates and the relationship is complex!