Population and places through time: Grid-square data and the NILS

Ian Shuttleworth QUB and NILS-RSU

Outline• What data resources are available to profile

local communities?• How can change through time be mapped for

small areas with available data? • How can these data resources be accessed?• What are your information needs and how

might they be met?• Focus on the Grid-Square Resource and the

Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study (NILS)

The Grid-Square Resource• 1km (everywhere 1971-2001) and 100m cells

(Belfast 1971-1991, everywhere 2001)• Geographically standard and consistent

spatial units through time – unlike other census output geographies – which can change between Censuses

• Counts of population for all cells; if more than 8 households and more than 25 individuals then other counts

The Grid-Square Resource• Topic counts: for example, housing tenure, car

ownership, age group, community background• Profile small areas 1971, 1991, 2001 (and next

year) 2011 plus change between these years• Data can be obtained from NISRA• Standard NI Census output but not as easy to use

as other outputs• Requires GIS capability and also understanding

variable definition in various Censuses

1971: Percentage Catholic by 100m grid squares

1991: Percentage Catholic by 100m grid squares

2001: Percentage Catholic by 100m grid squares

The NILS• Established in 2006; designed to examine change

through time, mortality, fertility, mobility• Based on a 28% sample (104/365 birthdates) of

health card registrations which is linked to the 2001 Census, and soon the 2011 Census, and then the 1991 Census (c500,000 people)

• Plus births and deaths in intervening years• Possible by 2014 (and 2001-2011 by late 2013) to

examine population and social changes 1991-2011

The NILS• 28% sample is large enough to consider small

areas (SOAs) or population groups in context• Data accessed via the NILS-RSU– http://www.qub.ac.uk/research-centres/NILSRese

archSupportUnit/AvailableData/

• Staff can help in understanding more about the data and the range of relevant possible projects that might be of interest

The NILS• Selected current projects

– Project 059: The Dynamics of Cultural Integration – A Longitudinal Case Study on the Fertility and demand for maternity services of the two Communities in Northern Ireland using NILS.Further details

– Project 058: Evaluating current area level indicators for measuring disadvantage. Further details– Project 055: Long-term illness, poor health and housing (im)mobility. Further details– Project 054: Current religious status and impacts on overall self-reported health, mortality risk and

variations in cause-specific mortality: a comparison study between individuals with an existing affiliation to a religious denomination and those without. Further details

– Project 053: Vital Events Standard Outputs: Using the NILS and the NIMS to Produce Annual Standard Outputs of Births & Deaths by Demographic, Socio-Economic and Area Characteristics. Further details

– Project 052: Exploring the relationship between deprivation measured at individual, household and area level and cancer incidence and survival inNorthern Ireland: An exemplar linkage study using the NILS and NICR databases. Further details

– Project 051: How accurate and timely are health registrations address data? An assessment using the NILS. Further details

– Project 050: Forecasting Fertility in Northern Ireland using a Time Varying Coefficients Model. Further details– Project 049: Prevalence and patterns of antidepressant use among women of reproductive age in Northern

Ireland. Further details– Project 046: A pharmaco-epidemiological study of Anxiolytic and Antidepressant Drug uptake in Northern

Ireland. Further details– Project 044: An analysis of health status, mobility, demographic and socio-economic characteristics by

occupational group. Further details– Project 043: Commuting, migration and health – a longitudinal study in Northern Ireland. Further details

The NILS• Example use of the NILS – a possible research

project• Questions:– Who moves into and out of socially-deprived

areas?– What happens to (a) people who move out of

socially-deprived areas and (b) people who move into socially deprived areas after (i) 5 years (ii) 10 years?

The NILS• The NILS could be used by Autumn 2013 to answer

these questions by:– Locating people in 2001 and profiling their social,

household and demographic characteristics using the 2001 Census

– Health card registration data (address changes) could then by used to locate them in 2005 and 2011 to find out if people had moved and, if so where they had moved to

– Then data from the 2011 Census could be used to their social, household and demographic characteristics – were moves out deprived areas, for instance, associated with a greater chance of employment in 2011

Area Change - Policy Intervention

2001

Least Deprived

Most Deprived

2011

Least Deprived

Most DeprivedMigration Effects

+-

BirthsDeathsBirths Deaths

Area Change - No Policy Intervention

2001

Least Deprived

Most Deprived

2011

Least Deprived

Most DeprivedMigration Effects

+-

BirthsDeathsBirths Deaths

Economic Mobility

2001 2011

16+ 16+

In Employment

Self-employment

Unemployed

Retired

BirthsDeathsBirths Deaths

Migration Effects

+-

Permanently sick

In Employment

Self-employment

Unemployed

Retired

Permanently sick

Conclusion• The Grid-Square Data and the NILS are

powerful resources for understanding localities and population dynamics

• These resources are publicly funded – they therefore should be used as widely as possible for the public good

• There are many different ways to use these resources– You might be a consumer of research findings

produced by someone else as part of their work

Conclusion• Using these resources– You might commission someone to do specific work

that you define– You may use the data yourselves

• The NILS-RSU exists to promote the NILS data and to help both new and experienced users to develop and undertake projects– One of its purposes is to build capacity in using the

NILS• More capacity building is needed to make use of

the Grid-Square Resource

Conclusion• Using the Grid-Square resource– The data can be accessed from the NISRA website– Academics or other experienced data users may

be able to advise on mapping and using the data to examine change through time

Contact information• The NILS– Ian Shuttleworth (i.shuttleworth@qub.ac.uk)– Michael Rosato (m.rosato@qub.ac.uk)– Joanne Cartland (joanne.cartland@dfpni.gov.uk)

• The Grid-Square Resource– Ian Shuttleworth (i.shuttleworth@qub.ac.uk) –

first point of contact