Population

Sources:

The World Food Problem

Leathers and Foster, 2004

World Hunger 12 MythsLappe Collins and Rossett, 1998

Hesketh et al.,New England J. Med 353: 1171-1176

Wikipedia

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Thomas Malthus

• 1798: Essay on the Principle of Population as it Affects the Future Improvement of Society

– Population growth tends to outstrip the means of subsistence

– Food increases arithmetically while population increases geometrically

– The poor can be kept alive by charity, but since they would then propagate, this is cruelty in disguise.

Paul Ehrlich

• 1968: The Population Bomb

• “The battle to feed all of humanity is over.

• In the 1970s the world will undergo famines—

• Hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death”

World Population

World Population

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Human Population Density

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Demographic Transition

• First, high birth rates and high death rates

• Then, improved living standards, health cause death rates to drop

• Finally, low birth rates match low death rates

Demographic Transition

• 1750-1950: Occurred in developed countries

• 1950: Began to see death rates drop in developing countries

• 2050: Projected completion of transition

Demographic Transition

• Example: U.S. History– When agrarian

society, people had many kids

• Source of security, labor

Demographic Transition

• Example: U.S. History– When became

industrial, fewer kids/family

• Lowered infant mortality

• No need to rely on children’s labor

• More opportunities for women

• Happened without birth control

Global Fertility

• 1950’s: 5 children/woman

• 1970’s: 4 children/woman

• 1990’s: 2.8 children/woman

• Replacement: 2.1 children/woman

Global Population

• Population growth rate is slowing down and will eventually stop

• Dip in 1960 due to 30 million deaths in China– Great Leap Forward

Famine

World Population Projection• Estimated to peak at 11 billion in 2200

World Population Growth

AIDS

• 40 million people infected with HIV– Many will die of AIDS

• Will not greatly impact global population growth

• Will Impact some countries • Losses by 2020:

– Uganda 45% – Rwanda 35%– Malawi 30%

Malawi AIDS orphans

Global HIV

Food Production per Capita

• Food Production per capita is rising worldwide– But falling in Africa

• Food production is keeping up with population– Otherwise food prices

would have risen– Food prices have dropped

Food Production in Sub-Saharan Africa

• Food Production in Sub Saharan Africa not keeping up with population

Per Capita Production of Calories, Fat, Protein

Progressivist View• Things are good and getting

better: – Worldwide standard of living

– Education

– Health

– Trade

• People are an asset.

• Population causes shortages which raise prices, – stimulating entrepreneurs to

satisfy the shortages.

• We end up better off as a result.Julian Simon

Progressivist View

• Two important indicators of progress and improvement in life are – Decreased Infant

Mortality

– Increased Life Expectancy

Life Expectancy

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Revisionist View

• Adoption and spread of agriculture have trapped humanity in a spiral of – Population growth– Ecological destruction– Social tyranny.

• The problem stems from the anti-ecological culture (religion) of agricultural societies

– humans are above and not part of nature (global ecosystem)

– and therefore can destroy it at will.

Civilization is based on Agriculture

Daniel Quinn

• 1992: Ishmael – Although population is 5.5 billion, we

produce enough food for 6.0 billion even though millions are starving

– Because we produce enough food for 6 billion, in 3 or 4 years there will be 6 billion people.

– Then, even though millions are starving, we will produce enough for 6.5 billion.

– Thus in another 3-4 years there will be 6.5 billion

– To halt this process, must face the fact that increasing food production doesn’t feed the hungry, it only fuels the population explosion.

Social Equity View

• Problems of – poverty

– overpopulation

– ecological destruction

• Are due to – inequity of wealth

– unfairness of economic and social systems

Frances Moore Lappe, Food First

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If the world were 100 people (2005)

• 51 male– 49 female

• 60 Asians, – 14 Africans, – 12 Europeans, – 8 Latin Americans,– 5 from USA and Canada – 1 from the South Pacific

• 82 nonwhite– 18 white

• 67 non-Christian– 33 be Christian

(Source: Family Care Foundation)

If the world were 100 people(2005)

• 80 live in substandard housing

• 67 unable to read • 50 malnourished

– 1 dying of starvation

• 33 without access to safe water supply

• 39 lack access to improved sanitation

• 24 have no electricity– Most of the 76 with electricity

use it only for light at night

(Source: Family Care Foundation)

If the world were 100 people(2005)

(Source: Family Care Foundation)

• 7 have access to the internet

• 1 has a college education

• 1 has HIV

• 2 near birth– 1 near death

• 5 control 32% of the entire world’s wealth – All 5 U.S. citizens

• 33 attempt to live on 3% of global income

Both hunger and high fertility occur when:

• Poverty is extreme and widespread

• Society denies security and opportunity to people

• Infant mortality is high• Most people can’t get land,

jobs, education, health care, old age security

• Few opportunities for women outside of home

Bangladesh mother

Children

• Labor force

• Chance for a job in city

• Security– major investment

– rational choice

Women’s Education

• Powerful predictor of lower fertility

• Reflects opportunity in society

Male Poverty

• Low self-esteem

• Dominate women and children

• Thus more children

Examples

• Sri Lanka: – lower price rice

• led to population decline

• Cuba: – low prices for food and health care

• reduced population rate from 4.7 to 1.6

• Kerala, India: – lower price rice, kerosene

• 1/3 birth rate of average in India• Literacy for women is 2.5 times

average in India

Kerala, India

Family Planning• Birth Control is responsible for only 15-

20% total fertility decline– Thus population growth cannot be brought

down simply by family planning or contraception

– but it can speed the decline

• Contraceptive use in Developing World has increased – 9% in 1960– 60% in late 1990s

• Demographic Transition requires improved– Health– Social Security– Education

IUD: Intra Uterine Device

Sterilization

• Encouraged by Western donors for developing countries– Quotas are set

– Incentives are used• Cash, roads, transportation,

latrines

• For hungry, choices are limited

• 1/3 of married women in India and China are sterilized

Indian woman

Puerto Rico: La Operacion

• U. S. seized in 1898• Sugar companies set up vast

plantations• Small farmers evicted• By 1925, 2% of population

owned 80% of land, 70% of population landless’

• Unemployment termed “overpopulation” by U.S.

• By 1940’s light manufacturing moved in attracted to cheap labor, low taxes

Puerto Rico: La Operacion

• Young women were key to labor force

• Problem was pregnancy

• Result: massive sterilization program

• Women coerced into sterilization without being told it was irreversible

• By 1968, 1/3 of women childbearing age were sterilized.

• Emigration and sterilization resulted in population drop with no increase in standard of living.

Bangladesh

• Intensive Family Planning in Matlab region

• Contraceptive use doubled

• Resulted in reduced birth rate

• Cost was very high: $120/birth averted– This is 120% of per capita

gross domestic product

– Not replicable on a national scale

China

• 1950s, 60s Under Mao– children encouraged

– Fertility rate: 5.9 children/woman

• 1970-1979 new policy to cope with overpopulation– “one is good, 2 is ok, 3 is too many”

– “late, long, few”• Have fewer children later

• greater spacing between

• Fertility dropped steeply to 2.9

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/asia_pac/02/china_party_congress/china_ruling_party/key_people_events/html/default.stm

Fertility decline in China

China One Child Policy• 1979 “one child” policy enacted

– For urban areas

• Material benefits – if have 1 child

• Social & official pressure– If have more than 1 child

• 71% Chinese are rural– Multiple children are common

• Fertility rate has declined – But also declined in other Asian

countries without coersion

• Human rights violation?

Birth Control Methods in China

Skewed sex ratio

• Sex ratio at birth (2000)– 117:100 male:female

• Maternal Hepatitus B may account for much of the skewing

• Boys preferred– Men care for parents in old age– Women join husband’s family

• Care for husband’s parents

• Selective abortion of girls– Use ultrasound to determine sex– If first child is a girl, want second to be a

boy– Illegal but suspected

• Female infanticide suspected– before ultrasound