Politics of the Middle East

Gulf War II

• 20 March 2003 – 1 May 2003• Casualties (139 US, UK 33)• Peshmerga 24• Iraqi combat fatalities: 30,000• Civilians 3,200 – 4,300• Long term instability• Increased sectarian tensions• Changed the regional balance of power• Resurgence of jihadists in the region

Weapons Inspection Saga• 1991 (UN 697) requires Iraq to eliminate WMDs,

Inspections begin• Further resolution 669,707,715,949,1149,1289,1441• Iraq is often not cooperative banning inspectors from

certain sites• Weapons inspections repeatedly suspended then resume• Some weapons and weapons material found• February 2002, Colin Powell speech to UNSC with

evidence he argues that Iraq has misled inspectors• Zeyzoun Dam disaster, Syria

Axis of Evil• G. W. Bush 2002 State of the Union Address• North Korea "A regime arming with missiles and weapons of

mass destruction, while starving its citizens.“• Iran "aggressively pursues these weapons and exports terror,

while an unelected few repress the Iranian people's hope for freedom.“

• Iraq "continues to flaunt its hostility toward America and to support terror.

Justifications for War

• Weapons of mass destruction• Connections with al Qaeda• Post 9/11 political environment• Marketing the War

Anti War

• 64% of Americans approved of military action• 63% wanted to find a diplomatic solution • 62% believed the threat of terrorism directed

against the U.S. would increase due to war• 3000 protests world wide, 36 million people• 3 million in Rome, largest ever anti war protest• Opposed by US allies Germany, France, NZ

United Nations Security Council

• A war mandate would require a super majority 9 of 15 with no veto from permanent members

• US - still authorized from Resolution 678 to us “all means necessary”

• UK - primary US supporter • France - would veto military intervention • Russia - would support a US-led war if things did

not change • China - continued weapons inspections.

Non-Permanent Members• Germany - would do all they could to avert

war • Continued inspections: Cameroon, Chile,

Guinea, Angola, Pakistan• Supported the use of military force even

without UN backing: Bulgaria, Spain, Mexico• Syria: Sanctions should be lifted

Coalition of the Willing• 48 Countries• Troops: US, UK, Poland, Australia• Italy, Spain, Denmark strategic and air support• Kurdish Peshmerga• Turkey refused coalition access to its air space

Invasion

Iraq Coalition

• 500,000 Troops• 650,000 reserves • Soviet T-72 Tanks• Aircraft disassembled and

buried

• US (148,000) UK (45,000)• Australia (2,000) Poland

(194) Peshmerga (70,000) • M1A1 Abrams Tanks• F-117 Stealth bombers• AWACS Guidance Systems

• March 20 air and ground operations commence

• April 10 Fall of Baghdad• May 1 Bush declares combat

operations over• July 22: Uday and Qusay Hussein

killed• September 3: First post-Saddam

government• poll shows majority of Iraqis

expect better life in 5 years. 2/3 of Baghdad residents state the dictator's removal was worth the hardships

• October/ November large scale insurgency

Capture of Saddam Hussein

• 13 December 2003 Near Tikrit• 'I am Saddam Hussein. I am

the president of Iraq and I am willing to negotiate,‘

• 'President Bush sends his regards‘

• More than 8 months on the run

Trial • Convicted of the Dujail

Masacre 1982• Anfal Campaign, Iran–Iraq War,

invasion of Kuwait; war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide

• Judge “State your name.”• Saddam "You are an Iraqi, you

know who I am.“• Trial criticised by rights groups

as a ‘Kangaroo Court”

Execution• Executioners ‘Are you afraid’• Saddam "No, I am a militant and I

have no fear for myself. I have spent my life in jihad and fighting aggression. Anyone who takes this route should not be afraid.“

• Crowd "Muqtada! Muqtada! Muqtada!“

• Saddam “Do you consider this bravery?“

• "Go to hell!“• "The hell that is Iraq?“• Recites the Shahada twice and

hanged until dead

Outcomes and Controversies

• Emergence of • al Qaeda in Iraq, • Abu Musab al Zaqawi • Indirectly leads to ISIS• Elections and forming of

new government• Abu Graib• Depleted Uranium