POLITICAL SUCCESSION IN NIGERIA: CONCEPTS THAT TRAVEL MINION K. C. MORRISON PROFESSOR AND HEAD...
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Transcript of POLITICAL SUCCESSION IN NIGERIA: CONCEPTS THAT TRAVEL MINION K. C. MORRISON PROFESSOR AND HEAD...
POLITICAL SUCCESSION IN NIGERIA:
CONCEPTS THAT TRAVEL
MINION K. C. MORRISONPROFESSOR AND HEAD
POLITICAL SCIENCE AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATIONMISSISSIPPI STATE UNIVERSITY
WESTERN POLITICAL SCIENCE ASSOCIATIONSAN FRANCISCO, APRIL 2, 2010
POLITICAL SUCCESSION
ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT THINGS MODERN DEMOCRATIC
GOVERNMENTS DO
COMPARING SUCCESSION IN NIGERIA
What we think about when we think of Nigeria?
NIGERIAA Checkered Succession History
REPUBLIC 1: PARLIAMENTARY FEDERALISM1960-1966
___________________________
MILITARY AUTHORITARIANISM1966
1966-1973 CIVIL WAR 1967-1970
1973-1979_____________________________________
REPUBLIC II: PRESIDENTIALISM 1979-1983
____________________________________
MILITARY AUTHORITARIANISM1985 – 1998
________________________________________
REPUBLIC III: PRESIDENTIALISM 1999 FORWARD
SUCCEEDING PROBLEM? SO HARD TO DO!
What is Political Succession
• SUCCESSION IS TRANSITION FROM ONE LEADER TO ANOTHER
Political Succession Occurs when
A NEW PRINCIPAL LEADER EXERCISES PRIMARY CONTROL OVER THE PERSONNEL AND POLICY APPARATUS
BUSH BOWS OUT TO OBAMA
Why is Succession So difficult?
IT’S ALL ABOUT POWER
• POWER CORRUPTS• THE TANTALIZING AURA OF
POWER• TRANSITION TO WHAT?• POWER YIELDS NOTHING
DEMOCRACY AND SUCCESSION
SUSPICIONS AND REVERENCELEADERS, WHILE NECESSARY, ARE
INHERENTLY TO BE FEARED AND DISTRUSTED
TYRANNYTHE VOICE OF THE PEOPLE
LEGISLATIVE PRIMACYREGULAR TRANSITIONS
ELECTIONS
Exercise
TRACE AND COMPARE THE HISTORY OF SUCCESSION IN
GREAT BRITAIN RUSSIA CHINA
_______________
1. SHOW HOW LONG THESE PROCESSES TOOK2. ARE THESE PROCESSES COMPLETE? EXPLAIN3. COMPARE THESE CASES TO NIGERIA
WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT POLITICAL SUCCESSION IN AFRICA?
THE NIGERIAN THIRD REPUBLICAND SUCCESSION
• OBASANJO SERVED TWO TERM LIMIT, 1999-2007
• OBASANGO HANDED OVER POWER TO YAR’ ADUA 2007
YAR ADUA DISABILITY• YAR ADUA FELLED BY ILLNESS
LEAVING THE EXERCISE OF STATE POWER IN SUSPENSION
• ADUA REFUSES TO HAND OVER POWER TO VP PER CONSTITUTION
• LEGISLATURE APPOINTS VP GOOD LUCK JONATHAN ACTING PRESIDENT 2010
CONSTITUTIONAL PROVISION ISECTION 144
• (1) The President or Vice-President shall cease to hold office, if - (a) by a resolution passed by two-thirds majority of all the members of the executive council of the Federation it is declared that the President or Vice-President is incapable of discharging the functions of his office; and (b) the declaration is verified, after such medical examination as may be necessary, by a medical panel established under subsection (4) of this section in its report to the President of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives.
CONSTITUTIONAL PROVISION II
SECTION 145 "Whenever the President transmits to the
President of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives a written declaration that he is proceeding on vacation or that he is otherwise unable to discharge the functions of his office, until he transmits to them a written declaration to the contrary such functions shall be discharged by the Vice-President as Acting President."
RISKS FOR NIGERIAA TRANSITIONAL DEMOCRACY
POLITICAL CRISIS BORNE OF:
COUP CULTUREETHNIC STRIFERELIGIOUS STRIFEECONOMIC CRISISILLIBERAL DEMOCRACYLACK OF CONSOLIDATION
RETURN TO COMPARE
SUCCESSION ISSUES IN OLDER DEMOCRACIES
BUSH V GORE IN USATONY BLAIR DEPARTURE IN UKPUTIN DEPARTURE IN RUSSIA
CONCLUSION
AS ANCIENT WESTERN THEORISTS PREDICTED, SUCCESSION IS A GENERAL PROBLEM FOR GOVERNMENTS
ROUTINE PROBLEM FOR STABLE MODERN GOVERNMENTS ARTICULATE BODY POLITIC
EXAGGERATED PROBLEM FOR TRANSITIONAL GOVERNMENTSILLIBERAL DEMOCRACIES
NIGERIA OFFERS SPECIAL BENEFITS FOR COMPARING EXECUTIVE SUCCESSION