Political stability and the fragmentation of online ...€¦ · Factionalisation, group grievance...

Political stability and the fragmentation of online publics inmultilingual states

Francesco Bailo

The University of Sydney

Internet, Politics, and Policy conferenceOxford Internet Institute, University of Oxford

23 September 2016

@FrBailo

Factionalisation, group grievance and political stability

BELBEL BELBELBELBELBELBELBEL

BIHBIHBIHBIHBIHBIHBIHBIHBIH

CHECHECHECHECHECHECHECHECHE

UKRUKRUKRUKRUKRUKRUKR

UKR

UKR

−3

−2

−1

0

1

2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0

factionalised elites (R2 = 0.57)

polit

ical

sta

bilit

y

BELBELBELBELBELBELBELBELBEL

BIHBIHBIHBIHBIHBIHBIHBIH

BIH


UKRUKRUKRUKRUKRUKRUKR

UKR

UKR

−3

−2

−1

0

1

2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0

group grievance (R2 = 0.659)po

litic

al s

tabi

lity

BELBEL

BELBEL

BEL

BELBELBELBEL

BIHBIHBIHBIH

BIHBIHBIHBIHBIH


UKRUKRUKRUKRUKRUKRUKRUKRUKR

2.5

5.0

7.5

10.0

2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0

group grievance (R2 = 0.701)

fact

iona

lized

elit

es

Source: Worldwide governance indicators, World Bank (2014) and Fragile States Index, The Fund for Peace (2014)

[email protected] 2/20

https://twitter.com/FrBailo

mailto:[email protected]

@FrBailo

Segregation along ethnolinguistic lines and quality of government

According to Alesina and Zhuravskaya (2011)

I ‘higher ethnic and linguistic segregation is associated with significantly lowergovernment quality’

and

I ‘generalized trust is lower in more segregated countries and higher incountries with good government’




@FrBailo

Political and ethnolinguistic fragmentation

Political dimension As position on a 1 to 5 (left to right) continuous scale

For parties based on Wikipedia data (Political position) mapped to continuous scale

For Facebook users based on the average value of their likes (each likes assume the value of theparty to which the page is linked)

Ethnolinguistic dimension As relative frequency of use of a particular language

For parties based on the proportion of comments in a specific language

For Facebook users based on the proportion of postings (posts and comment) in a specific language

Fragmentation As ratio in the volume of interactions between and within politically andethnolinguistically homogeneous groups




@FrBailo

Data

4 countries Belgium (BEL), Bosnia and Herzegovina (BIH), Ukraine (UKR),Switzerland (CHE)

93 parties running in the general elections held in 2014 (BEL, BIH, UKR) and2015 (CHE)

1423 Facebook pages each linked to a party

Identification of Facebook pages was a two-step process

1. Identification of Facebook pages by scraping parties’ homepages and through Facebooksearches;

2. Collection of Facebook pages liked by pages identified in step 1




@FrBailo

Data

country pages posts comments likes profilesBEL 864 44,739 116,368 1,254,577 203,263

BIH 206 19,219 42,001 1,011,952 113,231

CHE 214 9,934 25,114 241,327 72,100

UKR 137 16,843 69,325 968,112 121,446




@FrBailo

Country demographicsBelgium

DutchFrench

SwitzerlandGermanFrenchItalian

Ukraine

UkrainianRussian

Bosnia and Herzegovina

BosnianSerbian

Source: Language distribution based on last Census available for each country with the exception of Belgium where language use is not a Censusquestion




@FrBailo

Language use in parties’ pages

GroenVlaams Belang

Socialistische Partij AndersNew Flemish Alliance

SD&PChristen−Democratisch en

Vlaams

Open Vlaamse Liberalen enDemocratenPirate Party

Belgische Unie ... Union BelgeWorkers' Party of Belgium

Rassemblement Wallonie FranceParti Socialiste

EcoloCentre démocrate humaniste

Mouvement RéformateurVALEURS LIBÉRALES CITOYENNES

LA DROITEPeople's Party

Democratic FederalistIndependent

ÉgalitairesFaire place Nette

Gauches communesIslam

Mouvement de GaucheNouvelle Wallonie Alternative

Parti libertarienVox Populi Belgica

0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00

Dutch French

BEL (Concetration = 0.94)

Party of Democratic ActivityBosnian Party

Party of Democratic ProgressHSP−AS BiH

Social Democratic Union ofBosnia and Herzegovina

Party of Democratic Action

Labour Party of Bosnia andHerzegovina

Croatian Democratic Union ofBosnia and Herzegovina

People's Party for Work andBetterment

Party for Bosnia andHerzegovina

Croatian Democratic Union1990

Democratic Front

Bosnian−HerzegovinianPatriotic Party−Sefer

Halilovi..

Our Party

Union for a Better Future ofBiH

Social Democratic Party ofBosnia and Herzegovina

Socialist PartySerb Democratic Party

Democratic People's Union

0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00

Bosnian Serbian

BIH (Concetration = 0.69)

Alternative Left

Federal Democratic Union ofSwitzerland

Green Liberal Party ofSwitzerland

Evangelical People's Party ofSwitzerland

Social Democratic Party ofSwitzerland

Swiss People's Party

Conservative Democratic Partyof Switzerland

Green Party of Switzerland

Christian Democratic People'sParty of Switzerland

FDP.The Liberals

Ticino League

Solidarity

0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00

French German Italian

CHE (Concetration = 0.76)

Svoboda

Congress of UkrainianNationalists

Petro Poroshenko Bloc"Solidarity"

Bloc of Ukrainian Left ForcesPeople's Power

Right Sector

All−Ukrainian Union"Fatherland"

United CountryUkraine of the Future

National Democratic Party ofUkraine

People's FrontStrength and Honour

Ukraine is UnitedLiberal Party of Ukraine

Revival5.10

Strong UkraineOpposition Bloc

Communist Party of Ukraine

0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00

Russian Ukrainian

UKR (Concetration = 0.6)




@FrBailo

Network analysisTwo types of network:

Network of parties connections are drawn based on the number of commentsreceived by each pair of party from the same user

Network of users connections represent the number of direct replies exchangedamong users

Two types of Exponential Random Graph Models (ERGM), estimating thesignificance of node’s characteristics (political position and language) in edgeformation:

Temporal Exponential Random Graph Model (TERGM) Longitudinal dynamicnetwork, same number of nodes (parties), changing edges(cross-party posting)

Exponential Random Graph Models Series of networks, one network for each dayin the period, changing nodes (users), changing edges (direct replies)




@FrBailo

Network of parties (cross-posting): Belgium

NewFlemishAlliance

MouvementRéformateur

VlaamsBelang

Groen

PartiSocialiste

PirateParty

Ecolo

Centredémocratehumaniste

SocialistischePartij

Anders

OpenVlaamseLiberalen

enDemocraten

DemocraticFederalist

Independent

Christen−Democratischen

Vlaams

LADROITE

VoxPopuliBelgica

People'sParty

Workers'Party

ofBelgium

Gauchescommunes

BelgischeUnie ...UnionBelge

VALEURSLIBÉRALES

CITOYENNESSD&P

Partilibertarien

NouvelleWallonie

Alternative

RassemblementWallonieFrance

FaireplaceNette

Left Center Right

NewFlemishAlliance

MouvementRéformateur

VlaamsBelang

Groen

PartiSocialiste

PirateParty

Ecolo

Centredémocratehumaniste

SocialistischePartij

Anders

OpenVlaamseLiberalen

enDemocraten

DemocraticFederalist

Independent

Christen−Democratischen

Vlaams

LADROITE

VoxPopuliBelgica

People'sParty

Workers'Party

ofBelgium

Gauchescommunes

BelgischeUnie ...UnionBelge

VALEURSLIBÉRALES

CITOYENNESSD&P

Partilibertarien

NouvelleWallonie

Alternative

RassemblementWallonieFrance

FaireplaceNette

DutchFrench




@FrBailo

Network of parties (direct reply): Ukraine

Left Center Right




@FrBailo

TERGM on networks of parties

Bars denote CIs.

edges

Political position (absdiff)

Dutch (absdiff, %)

−2.0 −1.5 −1.0 −0.5 0.0

(a) Before election: Belgium

Bars denote CIs.

edges

Dutch (absdiff, %)


−3.0 −2.0 −1.0 0.0

(b) After election: Belgium

Bars denote CIs.

edges


Dutch (absdiff, %)

−2.0 −1.5 −1.0 −0.5 0.0

(c) Entire period: Belgium

Bars denote CIs.

edges


German (absdiff, %)

−4 −3 −2 −1 0

(a) Before election: Switzerland

Bars denote CIs.

edges


German (absdiff, %)

−15 −10 −5 0

(b) After election: Switzerland

Bars denote CIs.

edges


German (absdiff, %)

−4 −3 −2 −1 0

(c) Entire period: Switzerland




@FrBailo

TERGM on networks of parties

Bars denote CIs.

edges


Bosnian (absdiff, %)

−4 −3 −2 −1 0 1

(a) Before election: Bosnia

Bars denote CIs.

edges



−6 −4 −2 0 2

(b) After election: Bosnia

Bars denote CIs.

edges



−4 −3 −2 −1 0 1

(c) Entire period: Bosnia

Bars denote CIs.

edges


Ukrainian (absdiff, %)

−2.5 −2.0 −1.5 −1.0 −0.5 0.0

(a) Before election: Ukraine

Bars denote CIs.

edges



−3.0 −2.0 −1.0 0.0

(b) After election: Ukraine

Bars denote CIs.

edges



−2.5 −1.5 −0.5 0.0

(c) Entire period: [email protected] 13/20



@FrBailo

Segregation of linguistically homogeneous areas in Belgium

(a) FR ↔ FR: (15,556 edges) (b) NL ↔ NL: (1,622 edges) (c) NL ↔ FR: (297 edges)

Figure: Cross-party users’ posting within and among linguistic regions (Brussels excluded)




@FrBailo

ERGMs on networks of users (direct reply)

−3−2−1

0

−8−6−4−2

0

0500

100015002000

Belgium

Pol

itica

l(c

oef)

Dut

ch(c

oef)

Ver

tices

−4

−2

0

−10

−5

0

0100200300400500

Switzerland

Pol

itica

l(c

oef)

Ger

man

(coe

f)V

ertic

es




@FrBailo

ERGM on users’ direct reply network

−3−2−1

0

−2−1

012

0

200

400

600

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Pol

itica

l(c

oef)

Bos

nian

(coe

f)V

ertic

es

−2

−1

0

−3−2−1

0

200

400

600

Ukraine

Pol

itica

l(c

oef)

Ukr

aini

an(c

oef)

Ver

tices




@FrBailo

Ukrainian crisis 2014

1000

0

1000

Dec 2013 Jan 2014 Feb 2014 Mar 2014 Apr 2014 May 2014 Jun 2014

com

men

ts/

day

russian

ukrainian

Figure: Fequency of Facebook comments around the 2014 Ukrainian crisis




@FrBailo

Ukrainian crisis 2014

−2

−1

0

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

0

500

1000

1500

2000

Ukr

aini

an(c

oef)

Lang

uage

sign

ifica

nce

Ver

tices

Figure: ERGM on users’ direct reply network: 2014 Ukrainian [email protected] 18/20



@FrBailo

Conclusions

I The distance in political position is a significant and (as expected) negativepredictor for engagement among users, independently from the overallstability of the country.

I The distance in language background is a significant and negative predictorfor engagement in more stable countries but less so in fragile countries, whichexperience more inter-ethnolinguistic engagement.

I Group grievance is thus not necessarily associated with less exchanges amonggroups but it might result in more exchanges.

I After the military escalation of the 2014 Ukrainian crisis, exchanged acrossethnoliguistic lines increased.




Political stability and the fragmentation of online publics inmultilingual states

Francesco Bailo

The University of Sydney

Internet, Politics, and Policy conferenceOxford Internet Institute, University of Oxford

23 September 2016

Political stability and the fragmentation of online ...€¦ · Factionalisation, group grievance...

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Transcript of Political stability and the fragmentation of online ...€¦ · Factionalisation, group grievance...