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Political Science Quarterly: Summer 1998, New YorkAuthor(s): Sandeep PuriSource: Foreign Policy, No. 112 (Autumn, 1998), pp. 160-162Published by: Washingtonpost.Newsweek Interactive, LLCStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/1149049 .

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Global Newsstand

Even so, the overwhelming majority of Venezuelans remain com- mitted to democratic rule, say Brian Crisp and Daniel Levine, profes- sors of political science at the Universities of Arizona and Michigan, respectively. The authors counter claims of a democratic breakdown in Venezuela, pointing to encouraging "signs of rebuilding." Crisp and Levine highlight the work of groups such as the Federation of Urban Community Associations, known as FACUR-which secured 140,000 petition signatures demanding the direct election of governors and mayors-and the success of alternative political parties.

But it remains to be seen whether Venezuela's emerging civil society can carry the country forward in the absence of a viable state and of political parties that enjoy the confidence of the electorate. As Crisp and Levine warn, "Without durable and effective organization, 'civil society' is unlikely to provide coherence and direction for a complex and conflict-ridden nation."

-Jennifer Burrell FP

Political Science Quarterly Summer 1998, New York

September 27, the date of Germany's national elections, will mark a notable transition in German politics. Most obviously, the Bundestag will move from Bonn to the Reichstag in Berlin, the historical home of the German legislature, thereby signaling the formal end of the Bonn Republic and of a divided Germany [see Gebhard Schweigler's review of Capital Dilemma: Germany's Search for a New Architecture of Democracy by Michael Wise in FOREIGN POLICY, Summer 1998]. However, other likely changes, not so immediately evident, will be at least as signifi- cant if they occur.

Writing in the Summer 1998 issue of Political Science Quarterly, or PSQ, a top shelf journal that the nonpartisan Academy of Political Science has published for a remarkable 112 years, Columbia professors Lewis Edinger and Brigitte Nacos contemplate how the politics of the Berlin Republic will differ from that of its Bonn predecessor. Edinger and Nacos contrast German politics of the past two decades with the trends they see today in order to present a broad, if too gen- eral, description of the country's political evolution. Among the

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trends they highlight are the increasing competitiveness of German politics and the decreasing viability of the German Soziale Mark- twirtschaft, or social market economy.

Since World War II, German political contests have usually been battles between the traditional, established parties: the conservative Christian Democratic Union (cDu) and the left-leaning Social Demo- cratic Party (SPD). Edinger and Nacos anticipate that in the future, par- ties that until the 1990s were considered outsiders-for example the Party for Democratic Socialism (PDs), the successor of East Germany's Communist Party, and the Green Party-stand to increase their share of the votes. Although the authors do not offer an explanation for the Greens' popularity, they suggest that dissatisfaction in the East with West German institutions will inspire support for the PDs. Indeed, they suggest, it "is a force to be reckoned with in the eastern states, because East Germans perceive the PDS as the only genuine East German party and an outlet to voice their protest against West German dominance." In the authors' view, "East Germans perceive the substitution of West German institutions for those of the communist regime as outright annexation, rather than gradual integration."

Adding to the CDU and SPD's difficulties is a decrease in party alle- giance. According to Edinger and Nacos, "loyalties that once tied a majority of the electorate to these parties have diminished, a trend that parallels the increase in independent voters in the United States." In order to reach these swing-voters-roughly 50 percent of the elec- torate in Germany today, according to the authors-candidates will increasingly have to rely on the media. As this happens, the authors write, German politics will begin to resemble U.S. politics with its abundant use of surveys, polls, and television to craft and communicate messages to the voting public.

Germany's social welfare system might also undergo significant changes. For decades, this system has provided a generous social safety net, including child allowance, education, and numerous other benefits, to German citizens. Recent strains on the German economy from the high costs of developing and extending benefits to East Germany, the current 10 percent unemployment rate, and declining global competi- tiveness have, according to Edinger and Nacos, already led the current government and most of the political dlite to question the wisdom of continuing Germany's traditional social welfare system.

At its best, the essay identifies features of German politics that will

FALL 1998 161

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Global Newsstand

likely change in the coming decades. Where the authors fall short is in their documentation: They sometimes fail to present evidence to sup- port their assertions. Moreover, in several cases they overlook alterna- tive possibilities. Their discussion of East German voter allegiance to the PDS, for example, does not consider whether, or even when, cir- cumstances will occur that dilute this allegiance. Why assume that established West German parties will not evolve to accommodate this substantial bloc of voters? Similarly, Edinger and Nacos paint a dismal picture of the economy in East Germany without considering the prob- able economic productivity that will be generated by robust invest- ment and infrastructural development in the region. These and similar lapses make it difficult for the reader to determine whether a major transformation is in fact occurring in German politics or whether Ger- many is simply reacting to temporary stresses.

-Sandeep Puri New York

Mezhdunarodnaya Zhizn May 1998, Moscow

Contemporary Russian foreign-policy writing is distinguished by a painful quest for an overarching concept. Most authors start with the charge that the government lacks a clear foreign-policy strategy to guard Russia's national interests. They then develop their own ideas and conclude with a plea for a comprehensive, authoritative paper. Producing papers is not a problem; identifying the national interest is more difficult. Although most individuals and many groups in Russia know more or less what they want, no sustainable consolidation of the ruling class has yet occurred. And there remains no broad popular consensus on some of the most fundamental issues, from what Russia is and who the Russians are to where they belong in the world. Why then, given this disarray, should one spend any time at all reading cur- rent Russian foreign-affairs theory?

One answer is to determine the prevailing trends-however dis- parate-that steer policy. Viewed from this perspective, two pieces in the May 1998 issue of Mezhdunarodnaya Zhizn (International Affairs) make for useful reading. Published monthly in Russian and English editions, Mezhdunarodnaya Zhizn is closely linked to Russia's

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