Political Leadership: What Matters?

© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London

Political Leadership How much does it matter?

Political Leadership What matters?


Ben Page Chief Executive of Ipsos MORI


4.4 4.7

4.1 4.2 4.6

4.0 3.8

3.5 3.3 3.4

3.2 3.1

3.9 3.8

2.1 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.4

2.1 2.2

0

1

2

3

4

51

98

7

198

8

198

9

199

0

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

I want you to think about what it is that most attracted you to the … party. Some people are attracted mainly by the policies of the party, some by the leaders of the

party and some because they identify with the party as a whole. If you had a total of ten points to allocate according to how important each of these was to you,

how many points would you allocate to the leaders of the party you intend voting for, how many to its policies, and how many to the party as a whole?

Base: All giving a voting intention c.700 British adults each month (December 2013= 818)

2010 – the most presidential election ever?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Mean scores shown

Leaders

Party

Policies


4.4 4.7

4.1 4.2 4.6

4.0 3.8

4.1

3.5 3.3 3.4

3.2 3.1

3.9 3.8

2.6

2.1 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.4

2.1 2.2

3.3

0

1

2

3

4

51

98

7

198

8

198

9

199

0

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3





A pox on all your houses since the election?


Mean scores shown

Leaders

Party

Policies






Crosser than ever…..


Month and Year

Political Triangle

‘Leaders’ mean score

Leaders’ average

satisfaction rating

(Lab, Con & SDP/ Lib Dem)

June 1987 3.5 -3

April 1992 3.2 +8

April 1997 3.4 +8

May 2001 3.2 -5

April 2005 3.1 -8

August 2008 3.9 -6

February 2010 3.8 0.0

December 2013 2.6 -22


Which of these statements comes closest to your views of …..?

Not made easier by the rise of new

challengers: is Boris the new Disraeli?

Ed

Miliband

David

Cameron

Boris

Johnson

I like him and I like his party 23 27 I like him and I like his policies 39

I like him but I do not like his party 7 16 I like him but I do not like his policies 20

I do not like him but I like his party 26 11 I do not like him but I like his policies 5

I do not like him and I do not like his party 37 41 I do not like him and I do not like his policies 18

Don't know 23 27 Don't know 18

Total like him 30 43 Total like him 59

Total do not like him 63 52 Total do not like him 23

Total like his party 49 38 Total like his policies 44

Total do not like his party 44 57 Total do not like his policies 38

Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 10th – 12th August 2013 (Miliband/Cameron);

1,011 British adults 18+, 7th – 9th December 2013 (Boris Johnson)



18

24

73

69

We agree with Churchill– democracy is the worst form of government except for all the others

Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with each of the following statements.

Base: 1,011 British adults 18+, 7th -9th December 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

% Agree % Disagree

We should replace elected

politicians who run Britain

with professional managers

The quality of political

leaders today is better than

it has been in the past


What

really

matters?


26 29

50

52

64 64

71

76 81 82

87

89

93

... has got a lot of personality

… likeable

... is patriotic

... is experienced

… understands the fine details of policies

… has experience of life outside politics

... understands world problems

... is more honest than most politicians

... has sound judgement

... is in touch with ordinary people

... is good in a crisis

... is capable

... understands the problems facing Britain

What people SAY makes a good Prime Minister

For each of the following, how important, if at all, would you say the things I am going to read out are to make

a good Prime Minister?

Base: 503 British adults 18+, 7th -9th December 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

That the party’s leader... % ‘very important’


Who’s ahead on these factors?

Cameron Miliband Clegg Farage

Understands

problems facing GB

1st 1st

Capable 1st

Good in a crisis 1st

In touch with

ordinary people worst

Sound judgement 1st

Trustworthy 1st 1st

And on the least important issues

Likeable 1st

Personality 1st


What does

the past

tell us?


Perceptions of the more honest politician in the 1980s Here is a list of things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various politicians. I would like you to pick out all those statements that you feel fit Mr Callaghan/ Mrs Thatcher/ Mr Foot/ Mr Kinnock/ Mr Ashdown

Base: c. 2,000 British adults each time Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

18

30

16

10

22

16

11

22

28 26

18

27

18

29

21

25 23

13

20

0

10

20

30

40

Sep

-78

Nov-7

8Ja

n-7

9M

ar-

79

Ma

y-7

9Ju

l-7

9S

ep

-79

Nov-7

9Ja

n-8

0M

ar-

80

Ma

y-8

0Ju

l-8

0S

ep

-80

Nov-8

0Ja

n-8

1M

ar-

81

Ma

y-8

1Ju

l-8

1S

ep

-81

Nov-8

1Ja

n-8

2M

ar-

82

Ma

y-8

2Ju

l-8

2S

ep

-82

Nov-8

2Ja

n-8

3M

ar-

83

Ma

y-8

3Ju

l-8

3S

ep

-83

Nov-8

3Ja

n-8

4M

ar-

84

Ma

y-8

4Ju

l-8

4S

ep

-84

Nov-8

4Ja

n-8

5M

ar-

85

Ma

y-8

5Ju

l-8

5S

ep

-85

Nov-8

5Ja

n-8

6M

ar-

86

Ma

y-8

6Ju

l-8

6S

ep

-86

Nov-8

6Ja

n-8

7M

ar-

87

Ma

y-8

7Ju

l-8

7S

ep

-87

Nov-8

7Ja

n-8

8M

ar-

88

Ma

y-8

8Ju

l-8

8S

ep

-88

Nov-8

8Ja

n-8

9M

ar-

89

Ma

y-8

9Ju

l-8

9S

ep

-89

Nov-8

9Ja

n-9

0M

ar-

90

Ma

y-9

0Ju

l-9

0S

ep

-90

Nov-9

0

Foot

Thatcher

Callaghan

Ashdown

Kinnock

1979 General Election



More honest than most politicians


14

11

24 18

22

15

20 16

20

36

27

21

16

25

8

10

22

29

44

25 24

25

31

28

34

32

39

29

22

18

9

12

9

11

8

11

7 9

22 25

31

0

10

20

30

40

Ja

n-9

0A

pr-

90

Ju

l-9

0O

ct-

90

Ja

n-9

1A

pr-

91

Ju

l-9

1O

ct-

91

Ja

n-9

2A

pr-

92

Ju

l-9

2O

ct-

92

Ja

n-9

3A

pr-

93

Ju

l-9

3O

ct-

93

Ja

n-9

4A

pr-

94

Ju

l-9

4O

ct-

94

Ja

n-9

5A

pr-

95

Ju

l-9

5O

ct-

95

Ja

n-9

6A

pr-

96

Ju

l-9

6O

ct-

96

Ja

n-9

7A

pr-

97

Ju

l-9

7O

ct-

97

Ja

n-9

8A

pr-

98

Ju

l-9

8O

ct-

98

Ja

n-9

9A

pr-

99

Ju

l-9

9O

ct-

99

Ja

n-0

0A

pr-

00

Ju

l-0

0O

ct-

00

Ja

n-0

1A

pr-

01

Ju

l-0

1O

ct-

01

Ja

n-0

2A

pr-

02

Ju

l-0

2O

ct-

02

Ja

n-0

3A

pr-

03

Ju

l-0

3O

ct-

03

Ja

n-0

4A

pr-

04

Ju

l-0

4O

ct-

04

Ja

n-0

5A

pr-

05

Ju

l-0

5O

ct-

05

Perceptions of the more honest

politician in the 1990s & 2000s Here is a list of things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various politicians. I would like you to pick out all those statements that you feel fit Mrs Thatcher/ Mr Kinnock/ Mr Major/ Mr Smith/ Mr Ashdown/ Mr Hague/ Mr Kennedy/ Mr Duncan Smith/ Mr Howard


Kinnock

Thatcher

Smith

Ashdown

Blair




More honest than most politicians

Hague IDS

Howard

Major

Kennedy


Most capable leader in the 1980s Here is a list of things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various politicians. I would like you to pick out all those statements that you feel fit Mr Callaghan/ Mrs Thatcher/ Mr Foot/ Mr Kinnock/ Mr Ashdown

Base: c. 2,000 British adults each time

25

44

62

34

59

46 51

45

34

39

18

9

21

37

24 30

15

27 26

15

34

21 20

24

9

15

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Sep

-78

Nov-7

8Ja

n-7

9M

ar-

79

Ma

y-7

9Ju

l-7

9S

ep

-79

Nov-7

9Ja

n-8

0M

ar-

80

Ma

y-8

0Ju

l-8

0S

ep

-80

Nov-8

0Ja

n-8

1M

ar-

81

Ma

y-8

1Ju

l-8

1S

ep

-81

Nov-8

1Ja

n-8

2M

ar-

82

Ma

y-8

2Ju

l-8

2S

ep

-82

Nov-8

2Ja

n-8

3M

ar-

83

Ma

y-8

3Ju

l-8

3S

ep

-83

Nov-8

3Ja

n-8

4M

ar-

84

Ma

y-8

4Ju

l-8

4S

ep

-84

Nov-8

4Ja

n-8

5M

ar-

85

Ma

y-8

5Ju

l-8

5S

ep

-85

Nov-8

5Ja

n-8

6M

ar-

86

Ma

y-8

6Ju

l-8

6S

ep

-86

Nov-8

6Ja

n-8

7M

ar-

87

Ma

y-8

7Ju

l-8

7S

ep

-87

Nov-8

7Ja

n-8

8M

ar-

88

Ma

y-8

8Ju

l-8

8S

ep

-88

Nov-8

8Ja

n-8

9M

ar-

89

Ma

y-8

9Ju

l-8

9S

ep

-89

Nov-8

9Ja

n-9

0M

ar-

90

Ma

y-9

0Ju

l-9

0S

ep

-90

Nov-9

0


Foot

Thatcher

Callaghan

Ashdown

Kinnock




A capable leader


Most capable leader in the 1990s & 2000s

Here is a list of things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various politicians. I would like you to pick out all those statements that you feel fit Mrs Thatcher/ Mr Kinnock/ Mr Major/ Mr Smith/ Mr Ashdown/ Mr Hague/ Mr Kennedy/ Mr Duncan Smith/ Mr Howard


A capable leader

39

24 19

37

19

23 19

33

58

51

44

29

51

30

34

9

47

26

34

39

44

52

11 14

22

9

10 12

10 9

15

20

18

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Ja

n-9

0A

pr-

90

Ju

l-9

0O

ct-

90

Ja

n-9

1A

pr-

91

Ju

l-9

1O

ct-

91

Ja

n-9

2A

pr-

92

Ju

l-9

2O

ct-

92

Ja

n-9

3A

pr-

93

Ju

l-9

3O

ct-

93

Ja

n-9

4A

pr-

94

Ju

l-9

4O

ct-

94

Ja

n-9

5A

pr-

95

Ju

l-9

5O

ct-

95

Ja

n-9

6A

pr-

96

Ju

l-9

6O

ct-

96

Ja

n-9

7A

pr-

97

Ju

l-9

7O

ct-

97

Ja

n-9

8A

pr-

98

Ju

l-9

8O

ct-

98

Ja

n-9

9A

pr-

99

Ju

l-9

9O

ct-

99

Ja

n-0

0A

pr-

00

Ju

l-0

0O

ct-

00

Ja

n-0

1A

pr-

01

Ju

l-0

1O

ct-

01

Ja

n-0

2A

pr-

02

Ju

l-0

2O

ct-

02

Ja

n-0

3A

pr-

03

Ju

l-0

3O

ct-

03

Ja

n-0

4A

pr-

04

Ju

l-0

4O

ct-

04

Ja

n-0

5A

pr-

05

Ju

l-0

5O

ct-

05

Kinnock

Thatcher

Smith

Ashdown




Hague

Howard Major

Kennedy

IDS

30

Blair


But are all our leaders doomed to disappoint? Even lower expectations of politicians than of government

Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with each of the following statements.

Base: 1,011 British adults 18+, 7th -9th December 2013, split sampled across two statements (508 and 503 British adults 18+ respectively) Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

41

59

48

29 We now expect more

from government

than we do from God

We now expect more

from politicians

than we do from God


What do

politicians say?

- The grim

realities of power


“In truth Disraeli’s legacy is

not political but personal.

He was tolerant in an age when intolerance

was normal. He was marvellously witty at a

time when pomposity was treated as a

virtue. He emphasised the importance of

individual and national character when

others were concerned with the details of

legislation. He made, and still makes,

politics exciting to people who otherwise

find it dull. He was imaginative to excess,

and unstintingly brave.

… At the heart of Disraeli’s beliefs lay the

thought that imagination and courage are

the indispensable components of political

greatness.”

So does character matter?

Douglas Hurd


What they say matters

I think it’s incredibly complicated. The

public’s view of what leadership is

about is a sort of generalissimo

command and control leadership

which is rarely very appropriate in the

complex environment you’re working

in these days

The first thing is knowing where you want

to go, and the second thing is finding the

best route for getting there, which isn’t

always the quickest route, because you

have to take people with you. I think the

important thing is that you can adapt your

leadership style to suit the situation.


Final thoughts…

1. Competence

matters more

than

empathy,

personality

or “honesty”,

but it helps

to have

some

character

2. Party

management is

often over-

looked as a key

factor in

success;

politicians have

much less

choice in their

colleagues than

Chief Executives

3. The public

want political

leadership,

however little

they say they

now respect

or trust

politicians (or

ever have)


Political Leadership How much does it matter? Thank you

Political Leadership: What Matters?

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Transcript of Political Leadership: What Matters?