Political Culture, Ideology, and Landscape

Among Its Citizens, Are There Set American Ideals?

Are There Set American Ideals?

• Common American beliefs: democracy, equality, individualism, competition, private business, conformity to authority, nationalism, and idealism.

• The American Dream: The widespread belief that individual initiative and hard work can bring economic success, and that the United States is a land of opportunity.

• Do we have equality? Is racism, classism, sexism, homophobia, discrimination getting better or worse?

Economics and Ideology• Political Ideology ties in directly with

economics.• We have a Capitalist System based in

the trade of goods where the ultimate goal is to achieve as much “capital” or wealth as possible.

• In a capitalist system companies compete with one and another for the most wealth.

Ideology and Capitalism• In a true capitalistic system, a

government would not regulate business in any way (Adam Smith).

• We have a modified Capitalist economy. The government regulates business and uses its authority to both influence and control.

• Major ideological difference: – Conservative- more free markets– Liberal- more government regulation

The Political Spectrum

Note on this one Hitler is misplaced…

When I say liberal who and what issues do we think of?

Liberalism• Generally favors proposals for reform,

open to new ideas for progress. • People who have defined it (the

political terms are always changing): Al Gore, Bill and Hillary Clinton, FDR, JFK, Mike Dukakis, Jimmy Carter, Deval Patrick, and Barack Obama.

• Often associated with the Democratic and Green parties.

• Liberal in a classical sense (17th and 18th century): minimize government’s role (especially in business).

Central View of Liberalism:

• There is a belief in the positive use of government to bring about justice and equality of opportunity.

• Use government to protect the rights of individuals, yet willing to have government intervention.

• They seek protection by having government supply health care, education, and housing.

• Often supporters of: Unions, Affirmative Action, Tax rates that rise with income level (progressive tax), Worker’s rights.

• The government should stray away from legislating morals and family values.

Criticism of Liberalism• Too much reliance on government

to solve problems• Liberal programs results in higher

taxes• Too many government restrictions

hurt capitalism and economy• Creates more bureaucracy and

results in more waste

When I say conservative who and what issues do we think

of?

Conservatism• Generally favors traditional views and

tending to oppose change (retaining status quo).

• People who have defined it (the political terms are always changing): George W. Bush, Ronald Reagan, Newt Gingrich, Trent Lott, Richard Nixon, Barry Goldwater

• Often associated with the Republican and Libertarian parties.

• Conservative in a classical sense (17th and 18th century): limited electorate, maintaining social classes provides law and order.

Central Views of Conservatism

• Limited government ensures order, competitive markets, and personal opportunity.

• Pro-business – Government should not intervene with the economy. Supports “Free Trade”

• Opposes higher taxes, especially relative taxes (flat tax). Everyone should pay the same percentage of tax.

• Military has a strong role in constantly protect America from its enemies.

• The government should encourage morals and family values.

Criticism of Conservatism• With little regulation in business, there is

less protection of workers• Failure to deal with social issues such as

Sexism, Racism, and Classism• Allows a widening economic gap between

rich and poor• Overly aggressive in military use/more

difficult to create international consensus and diplomacy

• Too close to the Christian Right, Corporate America who see all issues from an extreme standpoint

Two Party System

vs.

Ideology vs. Party• Political Ideology: refers to one’s beliefs about

political values and the role of government.• Political Party: An organized group of people

with common values and goals, who try to get their candidates elected to office.

• One is how you feel about issues and the other is the political organization you are registered with, which raises money, establishes primaries, and helps candidates run for office.

• Parties are based on ideology, but are not mutually exclusive. Liberals are often Democrats and Conservatives are often Republican, but not always. You can be a liberal Republican or a conservative Libertarian, because ideology transcends political party.

The Two Party System• The Democrats and The Republicans:

In the United States there are two major parties. This is very different from most western Democracies.

• As a result, there are large gaps in ideology even among party members of the Democrats or Republicans.

Political Base• The group of people which a political

candidate or political party feels is most likely to vote for them. Generally people in the political base are more extreme in their political views and more likely to vote (especially in primaries). – Example: Republicans over the last few

years have seen their base as fiscally conservative people and those who are highly religious, and will court them in the primaries by attempting to seem more socially and fiscally conservative.

Socialism• Central View of Socialism: Government

system based on public ownership of important industries (not retail, but industries related to the welfare of the people – electricity, water, health care, etc)

• People who have defined it (the political terms are always changing): Ralph Nader, Bernie Sanders, Michael Moore, Zach De La Rocha, Jill Stein (many may register as Democrats)

• Steeper tax burden, more government programs

• Protect citizens rights, while attempting to create Economic Equality (eliminate socio-economic classes)

Libertarianism• People who have defined it (the political

terms are always changing): Harry Browne, Carla Howell, Arnold Schwarzenneger, Jesse Ventura, Dennis Miller, Bill Maher, Drew Carey, Ted Nugent, PJ O’Rourke (many may register as Republicans)

• Central View of Libertarianism: Ideology that individual liberty can only flourish with little government

• Reduce government programs and taxes• Allow businesses to regulate themselves• Allow social welfare to be done by private

organizations

Political Efficacy• Is a person’s own belief that she or he

can influence politics through their actions and expression of opinion.

• If a person’s political efficacy is high, then they believe they have power over the decisions of their government.

• If a person’s personal efficacy is low, then they believe they have little power over the decisions of their government.

Political Landscape• Is a term used by political

scientists to describe the regional differences throughout a country. By using statistics through polling and determining where certain ideologies and political parties are predominant is gives us a picture of a specific areas of a nation.

We need a volunteer: lets try to determine which states are more liberal and which states are more conservative…

By using the 2004 election, which was very polarized, may have broken the US into red (voted for Bush - conservative) and blue (voted for Kerry -

liberal) states.

A 2004 Election map adjusted for population.

The amount of red on the map is skewed because there are a lot of counties in which only a slim majority voted Republican. One possible way to allow for this to be reflected in a map (suggested by Robert

Vanderbei at Princeton) is to use not just two colors on the map, red and blue, but instead to use red, blue, and shades of purple to indicate percentages of voters. Here is what the normal map looks like if

you do this. If you use this method American appears less divided.

How has this changed with the 2008 election?

The Final Count in 2008:

INSERT MAP HERE…

Is America Bluer Now?

Demographics

• Demographics: the study of the characterizations of populations

• Political Socialization: the process where their community or society in general influences one’s political beliefs

• Ethnocentrism: selective perception that leads one to believe in the superiority of one’s nation or ethnic group.

US Total Population

 Current US Population Total: 300 million (as of 2007)

Legend (persons per sq.mi.):0-1 (white)1-4 (yellow)5-9 (yellow-green)10-24 (green)25-49 (teal)50-99 (dark teal)100-249 (blue)250-66,995 (violet)

Race and Ethnicity• Race: a grouping of human

characteristics based on appearance, usually skin color and eye shape (White, Black, Asian, Native American)

• Ethnicity: a social division based on national origin, religion, language, and culture (Latino, Pacific Islander, African American, Polish American, Chinese American, Afro-Caribbean, Native Hawaiian)

• Multiracial: Sociological term to describe a person of one or more race.

Demographics of U.S. by Race/Ethnicity

• White: 72.4%• African American: 12.6%• Asian American: 4.8%• American Indian: 0.9%• Pacific Islander: 0.2%• Multiple Races and Other:

9.1%• Hispanic: 16.4%(based on 2010 Census)

Minority Population in the US

Cities with Highest Percentage of Caucasians

1. Portland, Oregon (75 %)2. Seattle, Washington (68 %)3. Indianapolis, Indiana: (67 %)4. Columbus, Ohio (67 %)5. Oklahoma City, Oklahoma (65 %)6. Nashville-Davidson, Tennessee (64 %)7. Jacksonville, Florida (62 %)8. Phoenix, Arizona (56 %)9. Charlotte, North Carolina (55 %)Source: Washington Post analysis of 2000 census data

Portland, Oregon

How do whites vote?

• Whites make up about 224 million people and 80% of all voters (Census 2010)

• Whites voted for Bush (58%), Kerry (41%) in 2004 and Bush (54%), Gore (42%), and Nader (3%) in 2000.

• In 2008, Whites voted for McCain (53%) and Obama (45%).

White Males and Females

• White males voted for Bush (62%) and Kerry (37%) (CNN). In 2008, White males voted for McCain (57%) and Obama (41%). (PEW)

• White females voted for Bush (55%) and Kerry (44%). (CNN). White females voted for McCain (53%) to Obama (46%). (PEW)

Cities with Highest Percentage of Blacks

• 1. Detroit, Michigan (81.6%)• 2. New Orleans, Louisiana (67.3%)• 3. Baltimore, Maryland (64.3%)• 4. Atlanta, Georgia (61.4%)• 5. Memphis, Tennessee (61.4%)

Cities ranked are those over over 400,000 (from Census 2000). Includes Latinos identifying racially as blacks.

Detroit, Michigan

How do African Americans vote?

• African Americans make up about 39 million people and 11% of all voters (Census 2010)

• Blacks voted for Kerry (88%), Bush (11%) in 2004 and Gore (90%), Bush (9%), and Nader (1%) in 2000. (CNN) In 2008, Blacks voted for Obama (95%) to McCain 4% (PEW).

Cities with Highest Hispanic Populations

1. East Los Angeles, California (97%)2. Laredo, Texas (94%)3. Brownsville, Texas (91%)4. Hialeah, Florida (90%)5. McAllen, Texas (80%)6. El Paso, Texas (77%)7. Santa Ana, California (72%)8. El Monte, California (72%)9. Oxnard, CA (66%)10. Miami, Florida (66%)Cities ranked are those over 100,000 (from Census 2000). Locations

do not include those inside the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico.

East Los Angeles, California

How do Latinos vote?

• Latinos make up about 50 million people and 8% of all voters (Census 2010)

• Latinos voted for Kerry (62%), Bush (32%) in 2004 and Gore (62%), Bush (35%), and Nader (2%) in 2000. (CNN) Latinos voted for Obama (66%) to McCain 32% (PEW).

Cities with Highest Asian Populations

1. Honolulu, Hawaii (55.9%) 2. Daly City, California (50.7%) 3. Fremont, California (37.0%) 4. Sunnyvale, California (32.3%) 5. Garden Grove, California (30.9%) 6. San Francisco, California (30.8%) 7. Irvine, California (29.8%) 8. Santa Clara, California (29.3%) 9. Torrance, California (28.6%) 10. San Jose, California (26.9%)Cities ranked are those over 100,000 (from Census

2000).

Honolulu, Hawaii

How do Asians vote?

• Asian Americans make up about 15 million people and 2% of all voters (Census 2010)

• Asians voted for Kerry (56%), Bush (44%) in 2004 and Gore (55%), Bush (44%), and Nader (1%) in 2000. (CNN) In 2008, Asians voted for Obama (61%) and McCain (39%)

American Indians

Laguna Indian Reservation, New Mexico

How did American Indians vote?

• The concentration of American Indians in the US is traditionally in the west and centered on Indian reservations.

• American Indians/Pacific Islanders make up about 3 million people and <1% of all voters (Census 2005)

• American Indians/Pacific Islanders voted for Kerry (54%), Bush (40%) in 2004 and Gore (55%), Bush (39%), and Nader (1%) in 2000. (CNN)

Class in the U.S.2000• White Collar 58%• Blue Collar 32%• Farming 1%• Other 8% 1960• White Collar 39%• Blue Collar 40%• Farming 12%• Other 9%

Poverty and the United States

• Approximately 7 percent of whites, 10 percent of Asians, 20 percent of Latinos, 24 percent of American Indians, and 28 percent of African Americans are living under the poverty line. (Census 2000)

How do poor and wealthy people vote?

• Extremely wealthy people (over $350,000) make up 3 million and about 3% of all voters.

• Wealthy people (over $92,000/under $350,000) make up about 60 million people and 18% of all voters (Census 2005).

• Poor people (under $22,000) make up about 75 million people and 10% of all voters (Census 2005).

The Middle Class

• Middle class people (over $25,000 and under $92,000) make up 162 million people and about 59% of all voters.

Wealthiest Cities in US• 1 San Jose, CA $71,765 • 2 Anchorage, AK $61,565 • 3 San Francisco, CA $60,031 • 4 Virginia Beach, VA $55,781 • 5 San Diego, CA $51,382 • 6 Anaheim, CA $49,622 • 7 Raleigh, NC $47,878 • 8 Seattle, WA $46,650 • 9 Washington, DC $46,574 • 10 Honolulu, HI $46,500 Cities with population over 250,000. Rank city median

household income, 2004.

San Jose, California

Poorest Cities in the US1. Miami, FL $24,031 2. Newark, NJ $26,309 3. Cleveland, OH $27,871 4. Detroit, MI $27,871 5. Buffalo, NY $28,544 6. St. Louis, MO $30,389 7. Philadelphia, PA $30,631 8. Milwaukee, WI $31,231 9. New Orleans, LA $31,369 10. El Paso, TX $31,764 Cities with population over 250,000. Rank city median

household income, 2004.

Males and Females

• According to Census 2000, there are 143.4 million females and 138.1 million males. Females made up 50.9 percent of the population, compared with 51.3 percent in 1990.

“Soccer Mom” Election 1992 and 1996

“Nascar Dads” Election 2000 and 2004

Sexual Orientation• Between 5-10% of the population

identifies as gay or lesbian• Issues of strong concern within the

gay community: discrimination and gay marriage/civil unions. Often identify with liberal ideology and vote Democrat

• Log Cabin Republicans are an organization for gay and lesbian conservatives.

Religion and the United States

Some Key Issues with the Religion Vote

• Different religions views these issues differently, but they have been divisive.

• Abortion, Gay Marriage, Poverty, Death Penalty were some of the most highly cited social issues.

• Foreign policy and defense were cited as the most important issues by all voters who identify with a religion.

Age and Voting

• 18-29 (17%) • 30-44 (29%) • 45-59 (30%) • 60 and Older (24%)

(Parentheses is percentage of total voting population)

Education and Voting

• No High School (4%)• High School Graduate (22%)• Some College (32%)• College Graduate (26%)• Post-graduate Study (16%)

(From CNN. Parentheses indicate percentage of total voting population.)

Higher Education in the U.S.Percent of Adults Age 25 and Older with Some College Experience or More, 2000

Demographical Cleavage

• Reinforcing cleavages: divisions in a society that reinforces groups more homogeneous nature (Example: Italy is very divided between Socialist leaning north and Catholic/socially conservative south)

• Cross-cutting cleavages: divisions in a society that cut across demographic categories to produce groups that are more heterogeneous(Example: In Canada, although there are differences between the French speaking areas of the East and the English speaking areas of the west, language isn’t a deciding factor for many issues.

Public Opinion

Recognition

• Who are some of the most recognized politicians today?

• Why?

What is Public Opinion?

• The distribution of individual preferences for, or evaluation of, a given issue, candidate, or institution within a specific population.

• Many independent companies, from news outlets to private polling firms do polling about voting preferences in elections, issues, and perceptions.

Examples of Polling

From the Gallup Organization• 2000 (margin of error +/-3)

Before vote: Bush 48%, Gore 46%, Nader 4%Actual vote: Gore 48%+, Bush 48%, Nader 3%

• 2004 (margin of error +/-3)Before vote: Bush 49%, Kerry 49%, Nader 1%Actual vote: Bush 51%, Kerry 48%, Nader 1%

                                           

  

Support for the Death Penalty in the U.S.

What is Margin of Error (+/-)

• The margin of error is a statistic expression for the amount of random sampling error in a survey's results. It helps us gauge the validity of a poll.

• 95% of the time the “true number” is with the “+/- number”

• A smaller sample size creates a larger margin of error and a larger size creates a smaller margin of error.

How does it work?• Ask for individual preferences from a random

sample of people (usually via phone) • Proper random sampling that represents a

good cross section of the population being studied

• Proper wording of questions that avoid biases language

• Thorough analysis of data, pollsters make predictions of the view of the public or specific demographics

• Note: Internet polls are not scientific and hold no validity

Examples of Historical Bad Polling

• In 1936, Franklin Delano Roosevelt had been President for one term. The magazine, The Literary Digest, predicted that Alfred Landon would beat FDR in that year's election by 57 to 43 percent (and a landslide in the Electoral College 370-161). The Digest mailed over 10 million questionnaires to names drawn from lists of automobile and telephone owners, and over 2.3 million people responded - a huge sample.

• The Great Depression had begun in 1929. The Literary Digest had made two fatal mistakes. Their list of names was biased in favor of those with enough money to buy cars and phones (who were more likely wealthy and against FDRs social programs), a much smaller portion of the population in the thirties than it is today. (and keep their magazine subscription, which would be the first thing I would drop)

• The Digest had depended on voluntary response (not a random sample). FDR was the incumbent, and those who were unhappy with his administration were more likely to respond to the Digest survey.

• When a sample is biased, a large number of subjects cannot correct for the error.You need a completely random sample for an accurate poll!

George Gallup

Gallup• At the same time, a young man named George

Gallup sampled only 50,000 people and predicted that Roosevelt would win. Gallup's prediction was ridiculed as naive. After all, the Digest had predicted the winner in every election since 1916, and had based its predictions on the largest response to any poll in history. But Roosevelt won with 62% of the vote.

• Gallup used a completely random sample that represented a accurate cross section of the United States. To this day Gallup’s company is a leader in polls.

Dewey and Truman in 1948

• The Chicago Tribune (and other papers) in 1948 relied on polls of voter's preferences based on phone surveys which. In 1948, this produced a biased sample of affluent voters (who could afford telephones and also maintain a stable address), and who were thus more likely to support the Republican Dewey.

• Some pollsters had been so confident of Dewey's victory that they simply stopped polling voters weeks before the election and thus missed a last-minute surge of support for the Democrats.

Polling Changes• After 1948, pollsters would survey voters until the

day before the election, then they would also announce their results on television as polls closed and results came in.

• Since then television networks have agreed to not release results until after the polls closed on the west coast to avoid causing a last minute surge.

• After the election of 2000 (Bush vs. Gore) many polling agencies stopped using exit polls (due to inaccuracy) and instead rely on actual results, while others promised to not disclose results until after polls have closed.

Polling Dilemmas

• Bradley Effect: Explanation for observed discrepancies between voter opinion polls and election outcomes when a white candidate and a non-white candidate run against each other. Named for Tom Bradley, an African-American who lost the 1982 California gover nor's race.

• Lead or Momentum Effect: When a lead in the polls result in a greater increases of a candidates lead as people jump on the “bandwagon” or realize others support of candidates may be a reason to support them.

               

American Research Group, Inc.

Organizations that Poll in the US

Margin of Error (+/-)

Why is there a margin of error?• Not everyone (polled) is of the

“attentive public”.• This means not everyone pays attention

to public affairs and current events.• Not everyone (polled) votes in elections.• If results are within the margin of error

they are statistically insignificant.

Polling

• Polarization: When two opposing sides feel intensely about an issue.

• Intensity: The amount of support a member of the public has for an issue.

• Latency: Opinions a member of the public have that exist but are not fully developed, often because they have not spent significant time thinking about them.

• Salience: The extent to which a member of the public believes an issue is relevant to them.

What influences Public Opinion?

• Family and Upbringing• Amount of and Type of

Schooling • Mass Media• A Person’s Employment• Demographics• The Economy