Paulo Afonso RomanoDeputy Secretary for Agriculture, Cattle Raising and Supply

POLICY OPTIONS FOR COPING WITH AGROMETEOROLOGICAL

RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES

Belo Horizonte-MG

JULY/2010

TALLER INTERNACIONAL SOBRE LA CRISIS DE SOBREVIVENCIA DE LOS PRODUCTORES RURALES

SERVIÇOS DE CLIMA Y TEMPO

INDEX

2

GROWTH OF WORLD POPULATION

GLOBAL SOCIETY DEMAND

POLITICAL AND SOCIOECONOMIC CHANGES

TRANSITION OF THE AGRICULTURAL STRUCTURE

WORLD PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION OF GRAINS

BRAZILIAN EXPORTS

BRAZILIAN AGRIBUSINESS

ECONOMIC GROWTH

PARADIGM SHIFT

NEW DEMANDS OF THE CONTEMPORARY SOCIETY

MANAGERS OF THE RURAL AREA

MINAS GERAIS – SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE

GROWTH OF WORLD POPULATION

2

1950 2,5 BILLION INHAB.

1975 4,1 BILLION INHAB.

2000 6,1 BILLION INHAB.

2025 8,0 BILLION INHAB.

2050 9,2 BILLION INHAB.

DEMAND FOR FOOD/ ENERGY/ FIBERS

3

GLOBAL SOCIETY DEMAND

37% 63%

45% 55%

140 MILLION PEOPLE

EXITED THE POVERTY LINE

1998US$37,5 1 TRILLION

2008US$68,6 TRILLION

60% OF THE POPULATION IN THE CITIES

ENERGY ANDFOOD

DEVELOPED COUNTRIES

EMERGING COUNTRIES AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

WORLD GDP

Source: United Nations: World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision (2007)Design: SEAPA 4

• China: 19,8%

• India: 17,1%

• EU: 7,3%

• EUA: 4,5%• Indonesia: 3,5¨%• Brazil: 2,9%

• Pakistan: 2,6%

• Others: 42,3%

20086,69 billioninhabitants

4

INDUSTRIALIZATION AND URBANIZATION

POLITICAL AND SOCIOECONOMIC CHANGES

5Source: IBGE – Demographic Censuses of 1950, 1960, 1970, 1980, 1991 and 2000 / PNAD 2006, 2007and 2008.Design: SEAPA

2,93,03,03,24,04,55,56,05,5

17,016,716,514,7

11,8

9,2

6,2

4,02,3

1950 1960 1970 1980 1991 2000 2006 2007 2008

População Rural População Urbana

70% of the population ofMinas Gerais

(7,8 million inhabit.) 14% of the population ofMinas Gerais

(19,9 million inhab.)

MINAS GERAIS

Rural population Urban population

TRANSITION OF THE AGRICULTURAL STRUCTURE

EXPANSION-AGRICULTURAL BORDER TOWARDS CENTRAL BR - CERRADO

PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH: “GREEN REVOLUTION”:AGRICULTURAL POLICY: SNCR, PGPM, PROAGRO, Research and Rural Extension.

6Source: CONAB – Historical series / Monitoring of the Brazilian Harvest – Grains, June, 2010.Design: SEAPA

47,749,137,836,635,642,239,740,4

37,3

135,1114,7

100,378,468,371,5

58,152,246,9

1976/77 1980/81 1984/85 1988/89 1992/93 1996/97 2000/01 2004/05 2008/2009

Area (Million ha) Producion (Million t)

125,4%1.258 2.835

222,3%1.142 3.681PRODUCTIVITY (KG/ha)

BRAZILIAN PRODUCTION OF GRAINS

Source: USDA – Design: SEAPA

WORLD PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION OF GRAINS

Production x Consumption*: total of the period (2000/01-2009/10)

7Note: * soybean, maize, wheat, barley, oats and rice

Million tons

Brazil is the "superpower ready to feed the world "Financial Times - 11/05/2009

7

+ 2,2- 382,0

+ 217,9

World China Brazil

Prod20.956,6 Cons.

20.954,4

Prod3.819,0

Cons.4.201,0

SUPPLY OF STOCKS

Prod1.122,9 Cons.

905,0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010*

BRAZILIAN EXPORTSRELATIVE PARTICIPATION OF THE AGRIBUSINESS

118,5 137,8 160,6 197,9 153,0 89,2

Source: MDIC- ALICEWEB- Design: SEAPA

BILLION DOLLARS

43,6 49,5 58,4 71,8 64,7 34,9

* Related to the period from January to June 2010. 8

38,5 42,7 49,7 59,9 54,9 28,9TRADE BALANCE (US$ BILLION)

AGRIBUSINESS EXPORT (US$

BILLION)

BRAZILIAN AGRIBUSINESSEMPLOYMENT GENERATION (2007)

Provides jobs for 3,5 million people

Fonte: IBGE / FIPE - Elaboração: Seapa

90,8 millionpeople

AgribusinessCoffee10%

Other agribusinessactivities

90%

33,5 millionpeople

9

Other

secto

rs63

%Agr

ibusin

ess

37%

9

ECONOMIC GROWTH

10

AGRICULTURE: RESOURCES TO FUND DEVELOPMENT

INCOME TRANSFERENCE AGRICULTURE INDUSTRY

IMPOVERISHMENT OF PEOPLE AND NATURAL RESOURCES

Design: SEAPA

PARADIGM SHIFT

NATURAL RESOURCES

DEMAND OF FOOD ENERGY FIBERS

PRODUCTION SYSTEM

HUMAN ACTIONS

SOCIETY

RURAL PRODUCER

NATURAL RESOURCES

DEMAND OF FOOD, ENERGY, FIBERS, ENVIRONMENTAL

GOODS AND SERVICES

MANAGER OF THE RURAL AREA

HUMAN ACTIONS

SOCIETY

RURAL PRODUCER

PARADIGM OF PRODUCTIVITY PARADIGM OF SUSTAINABILITY

11Design: SEAPA

NEW DEMANDS OF THE CONTEMPORARY SOCIETY

12

COMBINATION OF THE DESIRE FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH AND THE ETHICAL

NEED FOR THE MITIGATION OF POVERTY, WITH SUSTAINABLE

PRODUCTION

ECONOMIC GROWTH

POVERTY MITIGATION

SUSTAINABLEPRODUCTION

12Design: SEAPA

OUTROS ESTADOS

MG

13

MANAGERS OF THE RURAL AREARESPONSIBLE FOR THE GENERATION OF

SOIL CONSERVATION

Elaboração: SEAPA

FOOD AND FIBERS

RICHNESS

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

ENERGY

ENVIRONMENTAL GOODS ANDS SERVICES

BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION

CO2 REMOVAL

WATER PRODUCTION AND QUALITY

JOBS

CULTURAL GOODS AND VALUES13Design: SEAPA

14

MANAGERS OF THE RURAL AREARISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES

Elaboração: SEAPA

CLIMATE CHANGES

14Design: SEAPA

RURAL INSURANCE

MINIMUM PRICE POLICY

NATIONAL PLAN OF IRRIGATION

TECHNOLOGY ADJUSTMENT – NEW VARIETIES

PRODUCTION SYSTEMS – MITIGATION OF IMPACTS

INDICATORS OF LIQUID ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS

ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES– AGRICULTURAL INCOME

CONFRONTATION POLICY

15

MINAS GERAIS SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE

15Design: SEAPA

CERTIFICATION OF THE ADEQUACY OF

COFFEE-PRODUCING

PROPERTIES TO GOOD PRODUCTION PRACTICES,

IN COMPLIANCE WITH THE DEMANDS

OF THE WORLD MARKET,

ALLOWING THE COFFEE PRODUCED

IN MINAS GERAIS TO REACH NEW MARKETS.

. 2009: 1.026 CERTIFIED PROPERTIES

CERTIFICA MINASINCREASED PRESENCE OF THE AGRIBUSINESS OF MINAS GERAIS

TO MEET THE DEMANDS OF NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL MARKETS

PROJECTS – COORDINATION AND EXECUTION: Seapa/IMA /Emater - MG

16Design: SEAPA

Elaboração: Seapa

CERTIFICA MINASINCREASED PRESENCE OF THE AGRIBUSINESS OF MINAS GERAIS TO MEET THE DEMANDS OF THE

NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL MARKETS

BOVINE CATTLE RAISING - TRACING ASSURANCE OF BEEF SAFETY, WITH THE ADDITION OF VALUE TO THE PRODUCT

2009: 1.757 PROPERTIES ABLE TO PROVIDE ANIMALS FOR EXPORT SLAUGHTERHOUSES

PROJECTS – COORDINATION AND EXECUTION: Seapa/IMA /Emater - MG17Design: SEAPA

FOREST DEVELOPMENTPROMOTION OF THE CULTIVATION OF FORESTS PLANTED IN RURAL PROPERTIES,

AIMING AT INTEGRATING AGRICULTURAL AND CATTLE RAISING ACTIVITIES

INTEGRATION OF CROP – CATTLE RAISING – FOREST

INTEGRATION OF AGRICULTURAL AND CATTLE RAISING ACTIVITIESIN THE SAME AREA, COMBINING SEVERAL TYPES OF

PLANTED FOREST, PASTURE AND GRAINS.

2008 - 2009: 230 DEMONSTRATIVE UNITS INSTALLED

PROJECTS – COORDINATION AND EXECUTION: Seapa/IMA /Emater - MG

Elaboração: Seapa 18

2009: 885 DEMONSTRATIVE UNITS INSTALLED

18Design: SEAPA

STATE OFFICE FOR AGRICULTURE, CATTLE RAISING AND SUPPLY

Rua Cláudio Manoel, 1205, Belo Horizonte – MGCEP: 30140 -100

1919