MEMORANDUMSUBJECT: 2013 Prospective on Cote d’Ivoire

Background:Cote d’Ivoire, a former French colony, had one of the most developed and promising economies in West Africa up until 1999, when a coup overthrew the democratically elected government. Later subsequent failed elections led to the outbreak of a civil war that divided the nation in two in 2002. This culminated into a disputed transfer of power in 2011 when former President Laurent Gbagbo refused to cede power after his election loss causing violent clashes between supporters of both sides. This crisis has left the country vulnerable as it attempts to reconcile the divided nation, reform the security sector and repair the economy. U.S. - Ivoirian relations have traditionally been friendly. The United States currently provides more than a quarter of the funding for UNCOI (United Nations Operation in Cote d’Ivoire).

Key issues in 2013:National Divisions:Nationality and identity are the core cause of the internal crisis that has plagued Cote d’Ivoire since 2001. The country has long benefited from the steady inflow of immigrants from other West African states who have added to the agricultural sector, which dominates the economy. The north of the country has a majority Muslim and immigrant population and remains largely underdeveloped. The south is prominently Christian and is far more developed. Out of the twenty-two million people living in Cote d’Ivoire an estimated eight million are immigrants, generally from other West African states.i These immigrants, and the descendants of immigrants, do not receive recognition as citizens and remain without a path to citizenship, leading to a conflict over national identity. Political tensions have risen in the country as nearly twenty percent of the population goes without representation and limited rights.

Tensions still remain from the violent and delayed transfer of power. President Ouattara, while democratically elected, had to take his seat by force through rebels who supported him. There is also tension stemming from the intervention of U.N. and French troops who monitored the ceasefire. This has complicated Ouattara’s legitimacy as opponents perceive his accession to the presidency as a tribute of force and support by the former colonizer, France. The trial of former President Gbagbo for crimes against humanity at the International Criminal Court in March 2013 could reignite these tensions and divide the nation once again. Several hundred supporters have already taken to the streets in protest in February 2012.ii While there has been a significant amount of progress on charging individuals from Gbagbo’s camp, Ivorian authorities have not arrested or charged any members of the pro-Ouattara rebel forces who also committed grave crimes during the crisis.iii

Border Security:There have been several attacks along the borders since the 2010 elections. In June 2012 an attack on the Liberian border resulted in the death of seven UN peacekeepers and twenty-seven civilians. In September 2012 there was an attack on the Ghanaian border which resulted in eight deaths and caused a closure of the border with Ghana. In January 2013 Guinean troops seized the

Ivorian village of Kpeaba as part of a long standing dispute about the delimitation of the western border. President Ouattara has promised to diplomatically solve this issue.iv Several conflicts with mercenaries on the Liberian border have added to the chaos. This cross-border violence poses a threat, furthering political tensions and insecurity throughout the country. There have been several attacks on tankers off of the coast of Cote d’Ivoire, the most recent of which occurred early February 2013 when a French tanker, M/V Gascogne was hijacked.v

Security Sector Reform:The security situation remains unstable with several recent attacks on army and police bases and on border posts during August and September 2012. An increasing number of reports accusing the military of mistreatment and illegal detentions have occurred.vi The root of this issue is political as the current administration does not trust the current police force, which was trained largely under the previous regime. This has led to a disarming of the police force and a reliance on armed soldiers for security.vii The army has been poorly integrated with thousands of former Ouattara’s rebels pushed into the regular army increasing the army by nearly 50,000 troops. This integration has caused tensions with army officers.viii Cote d’Ivoire must depoliticize the army while training them to fight the remaining paramilitary groups and rebels.ix Reform in increasingly needed as UNCOI’s mandate expires in July 2013.

Economic Recovery:The economy is still recovering from the conflict which interrupted its steady growth. Most infrastructure has been repaired which has allowed the farmers and businesses to continue exporting without needing to go through neighboring countries. This is promising for the normalization of trade relations. However, the instability in the country has led to a severe increase in food prices. Cote d’Ivoire remains the world’s largest exporter of cocoa as international prices have risen to the highest prices in over three decades. In March 2013 cocoa prices fell 1.2% for a total decrease of 8.1% since January 2012.x The increase in cocoa prices along with a tripling in local food prices has severely hindered Ivoirians ability to feed themselves and families. In May of 2012 prices for the staple crop, Cassava, had risen 70%. And rice had risen to nearly 50%, its highest process in five years.xi This has hurt exports and has caused some Ivorian farmers to turn to rubber production instead as the growing demand and high prices are more lucrative for them, as the production is projected to increase by more than 110%.xii The abandoning of stable crops cause concerns of potential famine and food riots. In July 2012 a commercial court was set up in Abidjan to encourage investments and economic development. The court is meant to protect investments and enforce contracts, overall improving the business climate.xiii

U.S. Strategic Interests:A stable and democratic Cote d’Ivoire is essential to the U.S. goal of promoting good governance and democracy throughout Africa. The U.S. holds several strategic interests, all of which are rooted in the goal of stability. Its transition after its crisis will set a precedent for similar countries. The internal stability will be crucial for maintain stability in an increasingly

important region. And while Cote d’Ivoire is not a comparatively large economic market for the U.S., there is potential and some significance.

Good Governance: A stable and democratic Cote d’Ivoire is imperative as the U.S. promotes good governance and democracy. The instability and disputed transition of power sets a negative precedent for other African countries, who are having elections and are attempting to transition and/or solidify into democracies. Similar refusals to give up power were seen in violent disputes over electoral processes in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Senegal subsequent to the Ivorian crisis.xiv Good governance and democracy is also crucial as the Cote d’Ivoire currently holds the chairmanship of ECOWAS, which has been taking a more proactive role in the region and increasingly more powerful in numerous sectors in the region, such as monetary policies, trade, energy and telecommunications, among others.

Stability in the Region: Cote d’Ivoire is in the heart of West Africa and borders five countries: Ghana, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Liberia and Mali. The recent crisis in Mali adds to the U.S. strategic importance on this sub-region with the heightened prospect of terrorism and extremism, particularly the AQIM linked groups in Mali and Boko Haram in Nigeria. Further instability in Cote d’Ivoire could potentially trigger similar problems throughout other West African states. Some of which have already experienced serve crises in recent years making them more susceptible. President Ouattara currently holds the chairmanship of ECOWAS, which has taken a much more proactive role in the region. This was seen in with the intervention in the civil war in Cote d’Ivoire in 2012 and the current deployment of 3,300 troops to Mali to intervene in the crisis against Islamic rebels.xv

Economic Relations:Economic recovery will help stabilize and further develop the country. Cote d’Ivoire is again eligible for preferential trade with the African Growth and Opportunity Act. The U.S. exports steel, machinery, plastics and agricultural products among others. However, exports fell more than 20% to $130 million. U.S. imports rose 8% to $1.3 billion. Imports include cocoa, the largest import at $871 million, rubber, wood, cashews and mineral fuel (oil).xvi The current U.S. trade deficit is $1.1 billion dollars. U.S. firms have made significant investments in oil and gas projects, banking, cocoa and international courier services.

i “Africa Security Brief,” Africa Center for Strategic Studies. March 2012.ii http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/afp/130216/pro-gbagbo-protest-dispersed-days-ahead-key-hearingiii http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/ivory-coast-troubled-sided-justice-18630422iv http://www.nation.co.ke/News/africa/Ivory-Coast-Guinea-vow-peaceful-resolution-to-border-dispute-/-/1066/1700168/-/ftcwu7/-/index.htmlv http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-21350451vi Monthly Forecast, UNSC Report, January 2013.vii http://www.economist.com/node/21555959 viii http://www.economist.com/node/21555959ix “Africa Security Brief,” Africa Center for Strategic Studies. March 2012.x http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-04/cocoa-falls-to-10-month-low-on-ivory-coast-rainfall-sugar-rises.htmlxi http://www.irinnews.org/Report/95497/COTE-D-IVOIRE-Traders-resist-rice-price-rulesxii http://www.guardian.co.uk/global-development/2013/feb/28/ivory-coast-farmers-cassava-rubberxiii http://www.globaltimes.cn/NEWS/tabid/99/ID/723228/Cote-dIvoire-sets-up-Commercial-Court-to-improve-business-environment.aspxxiv “Africa Security Brief,” Africa Center for Strategic Studies. March 2012.xv http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-20292797xvi http://www.ustr.gov/countries-regions/africa/west-africa/cote-divoire