Police and Crime Commitee monitoring report

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LONDONASSEMBLY Police and Crime Committee

Monitoring the Mayor’s policing and crime priorities – 2013-14 (mid-year)

February 2014

Contact: [email protected]

About this reportThe purpose of this report is to provide the Police and Crime Committee with an update on the Met’s progress against the Mayor’s policing priorities as set out in the Police and Crime Plan 2013-16. The report includes a review of performance against the 20.20.20 targets to reduce key crimes, improve public confidence and cut costs – all by 20 per cent; it also reviews the Met’s performance in other areas of importance to Londoners.The next report will be produced with performance information up until the end of the financial year (March 2014).

Key pointsRecorded crime:• Recorded crime fell by eight per cent in London in the 12 months to September 2013. • Since March 2008, total recorded crime has fallen faster outside of London. But in

recent months, the fall has been sharper in London.

Public perceptions of the Met:• Public confidence levels in the Met remain stable: 63 per cent of Londoners thought

the Met was doing a ‘good or excellent’ job in September 2013, one percentage point higher than in September 2012.

• Since October 2012, the Met has had fewer than 31,000 police officers.

Managing the force:• MOPAC has budgeted new savings and efficiencies totalling £134 million in 2014 15 ‑

and £171 million in 2015 16.‑

mailto:[email protected]

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1. Recorded crime: recorded crime fell by eight per cent in the 12 months to September 2013

PCC crime dashboardIn its response to the draft Police and Crime Plan, the Committee highlighted a number of crimes that were not included in MOPAC’s seven priority crimes. It will monitor these closely.


8.4 per centThe fall in total notifiable offences in the 12 months to September 2013 compared to the previous 12 months. From October 2012 to September 2013 there were 728,000 notifiable offences (12 months to September 2012: 795,000).

Source: London Datastore


12 months to Sept 2012


Change

Rape offences3,087 3,588 16%

Knife crime offences12,653 10,749 -15%

Serious youth violence victims 5,699 5,327 -7%Racist and religious hate victims 9,124 8,716 -4%Faith hate victims

614 777 27%Domestic offences

47,864 50,732 6%

Comparing the Met to similar forcesHMIC publishes crime statistics for all police forces in England and Wales. Offences per 1,000 of population:



Change

Greater Manchester 71 66 -7%The Met*

93 87 -7%West Midlands

64 63 -1%West Yorkshire 76 73 -4%MSF average

70 67 -4%

4 per centThe fall in total notifiable offences across the Met’s Most Similar Forces group in the 12 months to September 2013 compared to the previous 12 months. The Met’s fall was 7 per cent.

Source: HMIC Crime and Policing Comparator Data

*HMIC data may differ slightly to London Datastore statistics which are live. It also measures crime differently: as a rate (i.e. crimes per head). The London Datastore, in contrast, shows the absolute number of recorded offences.

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Recorded crime has fallen faster outside of London. But in the last year, the fall has been sharper in London.

15 per centThe fall in total recorded crime in the 12 months to September 2013, compared to the 12 months to March 2008. By comparison, recorded crime fell by 30 per cent in the Met’s Most Similar Group of forces, and by 33 per cent across forces in the rest of England and Wales. However, in the last two quarters, the fall in recorded crime has been sharper in London.

Source: Office for National Statistics, Crime Statistics (Figures are for all recorded crime excluding fraud, as per HMIC methodology. The Met’s Most Similar Group includes Greater Manchester, West Midlands and West Yorkshire police forces).

Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

-15%

-30%

-33%

Changes in recorded crime since March 2008

The Met

Most Similar Group average

Rest of England and Wales

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Recent data shows that there have been around 30,000 MOPAC priority offences per month

Progress against mayoral objectives Reducing neighbourhood crimes

The Mayor’s aim is to drive down crime by at least 20 per cent in the key categories of burglary, criminal damage, theft of and from motor vehicles, violence with injury, robbery and theft from the person. (Police and Crime Plan 2013-16, page 33)

Key points:• From November 2012 to October 2013,

there were 369,000 MOPAC priority crimes (November 2011 to October 2012: 394,000).

• In October 2013, there were 31,252 MOPAC priority crimes, the highest level since January 2013.


May

-08

Nov-

08

May

-09

Nov-

09

May

-10

Nov-

10

May

-11

Nov-

11

May

-12

Nov-

12

May

-13

Nov-

13

May

-14

Nov-

14

May

-15

Nov-

150

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45Number of recorded MOPAC priority offences per month

(thousands)

Actual number of offences for seven MOPAC priority crimes

Actual trend based on number of offences from May 2008 to April 2012

Trend required to meet 20 per cent crime reduction target by 2016

Sources: London Datastore; Performance against this target will be measured from May 2012 (MOPAC Challenge meeting, 2 October 2012)

6.3 per centThe total fall in MOPAC priority crimes in the 12 months to October 2013 (compared to the previous 12 months). MOPAC has also set the Met a stretch target to reduce its seven priority offences by 20 per cent compared to 2011-12 levels. The number of offences would need to be 326,000 per year to meet this target. Source: London Datastore

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Recorded offences for robbery, theft of motor vehicles and criminal damage have all fallen by over ten per cent in the last 12 months


Key points

• Recorded offences for six of the seven MOPAC priority crimes have decreased in the 12 months to October 2013, compared to the 12 months to October 2012.

• Theft from Person recorded offences increased by 4.7 per cent.

• Robbery, Theft of Motor Vehicle and Criminal Damage all fell by over ten per cent.


The change in the number of recorded MOPAC priority offences in the 12 months to October 2013, compared to the previous 12 months

Violence w

ith In

jury

Robbery

Theft from Perso

n

Burglary

Theft of Motor V

ehicle

Theft from M

otor Vehicl

e

Criminal D

amage

-5.6%

-13.6%

4.7%

-5.5%

-10.7%

-5.3%

-11.5%

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Across London, Westminster has had the most offences per head in all crime categories

Crimes by boroughThe Met publishes the number of offences by borough for eight different crime types. The following tables show the three boroughs with the most and least recorded offences across these crime types (based on the number of offences in each borough from April to September 2013, per 1,000 of population).


Most offences per 1,000 of population

Least offences per 1,000 of population

Violence Against The

Person

WestminsterRichmond Upon Thames

Tower Hamlets Bexley

Hackney Barnet

Sexual OffencesWestminster

Richmond Upon Thames

Southwark Kingston upon Thames

Newham Havering

Robbery

Westminster Kingston upon Thames

LambethRichmond Upon Thames

Southwark Bexley

BurglaryWestminster Kingston upon Thames

Camden Sutton

Lambeth Bexley

Most offences per 1,000 of population

Least offences per 1,000 of population

Theft & HandlingWestminster HarrowCamden BexleyKensington & Chelsea Sutton

Fraud & ForgeryWestminster HaveringNewham SuttonKensington & Chelsea Hackney

Criminal DamageWestminster HarrowTower Hamlets RedbridgeBarking & Dagenham Kensington & Chelsea

Drugs

Westminster SuttonTower Hamlets BarnetHammersmith & Fulham Hillingdon

21Average number offences each month in Westminster per 1,000 of population from April 2013 to September 2013 – the highest rate of all boroughs. Second highest was Camden (11 per 1,000), followed by Kensington & Chelsea and Islington (both 10 per 1,000). Sources: MPS Crime Figures (www.met.police.uk/crimefigures); GLA Intelligence Unit – 2011 Census data

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2. Public perceptions of the Met: Confidence in the police remains stable

Public confidenceMOPAC’s wants the Met to improve public confidence so that by 2016, 75 per cent of Londoners think that the police are doing a ‘good’ or ‘excellent’ job by 2016, as measured by the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW).(Police and Crime Plan 2013-16, page 38)


Least worried: Most worried:

Kingston upon Thames (15%) Newham (54%)

Merton (15%) Redbridge (45%)

Richmond upon Thames (16%) Tower Hamlets (43%)

78.5 per centVictims satisfied with the overall service provided by the Met from October 2012 to September 2013 (2011-12: 74.6 per cent). In 2012-13, the average across the Met’s Most Similar Forces was 85.9 per cent (2011 12: 86.1 per cent). ‑Source: HMIC Crime and Policing Comparator Data

Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-1350%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%Police are doing a good or excellent job

London England Target

63 per centLondoners who thought that overall the police were doing a good or excellent job in September 2013 (September 2012: 62 per cent).

Source: Crime Survey for England and Wales

Public opinion

Londoners worried or very worried about crime in their area:

32 per centLondoners who were worried or very worried about crime in their area (12 months to September 2013).

Source: London Datastore (based on MPS Public Attitudes Survey results)

Victim support• In September 2013, the Met had the lowest victim satisfaction

ratings of any force in England and Wales.

• In addition to CSEW, the Met conducts its own Public Attitude Surveys. These show that public confidence in the police increased in the last year: from 64 per cent in September 2012, to 67 per cent in September 2013 (source: London Datastore).

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The Met has had fewer than 31,000 police officers since October 2012

Police strengthMOPAC plan to keep police numbers as high as possible at or around 32,000(Police and Crime Plan 2013-16, page 22)

Key points:

• In the 12 months to September 2013, police officer strength ranged from a low of 30,235 (March 2013) to a high of 31,121 (October 2012).

• Average PCSO strength in the 12 months to September 2013 was 2,587. PCSO strength ranged from a low of 2,324 (September 2013) to a high of 2,857 (October 2012)

• Average police staff strength in the 12 months to September 2013 was 12,667. Police staff strength ranged from a low of 12,113 (September 2013) to a high of 13,045 (November 2012).


Police strength (full time equivalents)

Apr-

08

Jul-0

8

Oct

-08

Jan-

09

Apr-

09

Jul-0

9

Oct

-09

Jan-

10

Apr-

10

Jul-1

0

Oct

-10

Jan-

11

Apr-

11

Jul-1

1

Oct

-11

Jan-

12

Apr-

12

Jul-1

2

Oct

-12

Jan-

13

Apr-

13

Jul-1

3

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Police of-ficers

32,000

PCSOs

Police staff

30,584Average number of police officers from October 2012 to September 2013. The average number from October 2011 to September 2013 was 31,564.Source: London Datastore

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Stop and Search


713The number of times the Met used Taser in 2012, an 88 per cent increase compared to 2011 (most recent data)Sources: Home Office, September 2013; Standard, 28 January 2014.

23.1 per centFall in the number of people searched in the 12 months to September 2013 compared to the 12 months to September 2012.

43 per centIncrease in the average rate of searches resulting in an arrest in the 12 months to September 2013, compared to the 12 months to September 2012.Source: London Datastore

1,547Section 60 searches by the Met from April 2013 to September 2013. 514 of these took place in August 2013.

Source: Stop and Search Annual Volumes, MPS Publication Scheme

Taser use

*Searches include searches under PACE (Police and Criminal Evidence Act), S23 Drugs Act, S47 Firearms Act plus a very small number not included in the other categories (e.g. s163 Road Traffic Act)

Apr-

08Ju

l-08

Oct

-08

Jan-

09Ap

r-09

Jul-0

9O

ct-0

9Ja

n-10

Apr-

10Ju

l-10

Oct

-10

Jan-

11Ap

r-11

Jul-1

1O

ct-1

1Ja

n-12

Apr-

12Ju

l-12

Oct

-12

Jan-

13Ap

r-13

Jul-1

3

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

18%Number of searches*

Stop & search arrest rate (%)

• Categories of Taser use include: drawn, aimed, arced, red dotted, drive stun and fired.

• The Met has launched a Taser website. (It does not yet publish recent data on Taser use.)

• FOI requests show that the Met used Taser 713 times in 2012, and 353 times in the first three months of 2013.

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 (to Sep)

S60 searches

91,860 53,533 39,315 3,158 1,547

Change on previous year

-16.4% -41.7% -26.6% -92.0% N/a

The number of searches continue to fall in 2013; searches resulting in an arrest are up

2009 2010 20110

100200300400500600700800

MPS - all usesMSF average

http://content.met.police.uk/Site/taserwelcome

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Public complaints


6.2 per centPublic complaints allegations that were finalised with the result of substantiated in the 12 months to September 2013 (12 months to September 2012: 6.2 per cent).

Source: Public Complaints Key Indicators, MPS Publication Scheme

Key points

• 10,599 public complaint allegations were finalised in the 12 months to September 2013, 12 per cent less than the previous year (12 months to September 2012: 12,101)

• 661 public complaint allegations were finalised with the result of substantiated in the 12 months to September 2013, 12 per cent less than the previous year (12 months to September 2012: 749)

• 1,583 public complaint allegations were finalised with the result of local resolution in the 12 months to September 2013, 7 per cent less than the previous year (12 months to September 2012: 1,702)

Apr-

11

Jun-

11

Aug-

11

Oct

-11

Dec-

11

Feb-

12

Apr-

12

Jun-

12

Aug-

12

Oct

-12

Dec-

12

Feb-

13

Apr-

13

Jun-

13

Aug-

130

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Public complaint allegations fi-nalised per month (No.)

Local resolution allegations as a proportion of all finalised allega-tions (%)

Substantiated al-legations as a proportion of all finalised allega-tions (%)

14.9 per centPublic complaints allegations that were finalised with the result of local resolution in the 12 months to September 2013 (12 months to September 2012: 14.1 per cent).

Source: Public Complaints Key Indicators, MPS Publication Scheme

The number of public complaint allegations finalised has fallen by 12 per cent in the last year

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Managing the cost of policingThe Mayor’s aim is to cut costs to absorb a reduction in the central grant to the Met budget of 20 per cent(Police and Crime Plan 2013-16, page 44)

MOPAC budget submission 2014 to 2016• In December 2013, MOPAC submitted its draft budget for

2014-15 and 2015-16.

• In 2014 15, total revenue spending will be £3,253 million, ‑a fall of £32 million (one per cent) compared to 2013 14.‑

• Capital spending will increase significantly: from £178 million in 2013 14, to £368 million in 2014 15, a rise ‑ ‑of £190 million (107 per cent). This investment will support changes to the Met’s estate and support services (including IT) that aim to reduce the running costs of these services in future years.

• MOPAC has budgeted new savings and efficiencies totalling £134 million in 2014 15 and £171 million in ‑2015 16.‑

• Further uncertainty over central government funding for police services still remains. When the Home Secretary released provisional details of the police settlement in December 2013, there was no information on funding in 2015 16 for the Main Police Grant, specific grants or the ‑council tax support grant.

Source: Budget Submission 2014-15 to 2015-16 (DMPC decision 2013-176)


Financial performance in 2013-14 (as at November 2013)• MOPAC is forecasting an underspend of £13 million in

2013-14 (0.5 per cent of total net expenditure).

• Savings on pay budgets are offsetting overspends on overtime and running costs.

• The Met’s latest workforce projections indicate that police officer strength will be around 30,900 by March 2014, 300 below the budgeted number.

• MOPAC is forecasting an £8.5 million overspend on premises costs in 2013-14 (4.5 per cent of budgeted expenditure for premises costs). This is due to delays in realising Corporate Real Estate savings and increased forecasts for facilities management costs.

Source: MOPAC report to PCC – 30 January 2014.

Governing the force: recent updates• The Met is considering a new fleet strategy to consider

reconfiguring fleet requirements for the future (Management Board, 5 November 2013).

• The Met will give police officers mobile devices to work remotely. But the Management Board is concerned that these might not be fully deployed until October 2016 (Management Board, 5 November 2013).

• The Met expects that leaving Scotland Yard and relocating to the Curtis Green building will reduce running costs by £7 million per year (DMPC decision 2013-197).

3. Managing the force: MOPAC/MPS will double capital investment in 2014-15

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