PNWA International Trends For Northwest Grain Markets
description
Transcript of PNWA International Trends For Northwest Grain Markets
PNWAPNWAInternational Trends International Trends For Northwest Grain For Northwest Grain
MarketsMarkets
By Amer Y. BadawiVice President
Columbia Grain International, Inc.
Global Seaborne Dry Bulk Trade
Grain Market Review
Transportation
Trends & Challenges
TopicsTopics
GLOBAL SEABORNE GLOBAL SEABORNE DRY BULK TRADEDRY BULK TRADE
Dry Bulk Seaborne TradeDry Bulk Seaborne Trade Iron oreIron ore Coal, CokeCoal, Coke Grains, AgribulksGrains, Agribulks Bauxite, Alumina, Phosphate Bauxite, Alumina, Phosphate
RockRock SugarSugar FertilizerFertilizer Scrap, Steel Products, Pig IronScrap, Steel Products, Pig Iron CementCement Forest ProductsForest Products
Seaborne Bulk ProfileSeaborne Bulk ProfileClarkson Research & otherClarkson Research & other
0MMT
200MMT
400MMT
600MMT
800MMT
1,000MMT
1,200MMT
2000 449MMT 520MMT 264MMT 84MMT 793MMT
2001 451MMT 552MMT 260MMT 83MMT 811MMT
2002 481MMT 577MMT 271MMT 85MMT 818MMT
2003 516MMT 626MMT 264MMT 89MMT 864MMT
2004 588MMT 662MMT 275MMT 99MMT 928MMT
2005 661MMT 692MMT 272MMT 109MMT 945MMT
2006 721MMT 734MMT 292MMT 109MMT 990MMT
2007 781MMT 787MMT 301MMT 116MMT 1,030MMT
2008 866MMT 817MMT 316MMT 119MMT 1,068MMT
2009 910MMT 850MMT 307MMT 119MMT 1,090MMT
Iron Ore CoalWheat, Coarse Grain &
SoybeanBauxite, Alumina & Phos-
Rock
Sugar, Agribulk, Cement, Steel, Fertilizer, Coke,
others
0MMT
500MMT
1,000MMT
1,500MMT
2,000MMT
2,500MMT
3,000MMT
3,500MMT
4,000MMT
Bulk Trade Estimated
Seaborne Dry Bulk TradeSeaborne Dry Bulk TradeF
orecast
Fo
recast
Clarkson Research & otherClarkson Research & other
HistoricalHistorical
Forecast adjustment from 6% to 3% growth.
IRON OREIRON ORE
Iron Ore Trade volumeIron Ore Trade volume
COALCOAL
Thermal Coal Trade volumeThermal Coal Trade volume
Coking Coal Trade volumeCoking Coal Trade volume
GRAIN GRAIN MARKET MARKET
OVERVIEWOVERVIEW
General Outlook for GrainGeneral Outlook for Grain 08/09 World
Consumption up by 30MT (1.8%) to 1,714 MT.
Almost entirely due to rise in Ethanol use; set to reach 124 MT.
Slight increase in direct food consumption 0.6%.
Trade Forecast up 4.1%
Grain Imports by Grain Imports by RegionRegion
0.0MMT
20.0MMT
40.0MMT
60.0MMT
80.0MMT
98/99 15.3MMT 68.3MMT 43.0MMT 61.5MMT 4.9MMT
99/00 24.2MMT 69.2MMT 45.0MMT 69.5MMT 4.1MMT
00/01 19.1MMT 67.8MMT 48.6MMT 72.4MMT 1.1MMT
01/02 24.5MMT 65.7MMT 47.4MMT 74.0MMT 0.4MMT
02/03 25.6MMT 66.8MMT 44.5MMT 70.7MMT 3.4MMT
03/04 28.6MMT 70.6MMT 42.5MMT 63.5MMT 2.8MMT
04/05 19.0MMT 73.1MMT 44.6MMT 73.6MMT 0.7MMT
05/06 18.6MMT 70.8MMT 46.7MMT 78.1MMT 0.8MMT
06/07 20.9MMT 72.7MMT 54.2MMT 72.3MMT 0.9MMT
07/08 27.8MMT 66.8MMT 56.3MMT 76.1MMT 11.0MMT
East & West Europe
AsiaCentral & South
AmericaMiddle East &
AfricaOther
PNW’s Geographical Advantage
World Grain ExportsWorld Grain Exports
0.0MMT
20.0MMT
40.0MMT
60.0MMT
80.0MMT
100.0MMT
120.0MMT
140.0MMT
Wheat 99.1MMT 99.7MMT 109.9MMT 101.5MMT 106.7MMT 105.3MMT 101.7MMT 110.0MMT 109.9MMT 110.0MMT 109.5MMT 114.7MMT
Coarse Grain 92.5MMT 85.4MMT 93.7MMT 101.9MMT 107.7MMT 105.6MMT 105.1MMT 101.7MMT 105.3MMT 110.4MMT 128.5MMT 114.9MMT
97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09
0.0MMT
20.0MMT
40.0MMT
60.0MMT
80.0MMT
100.0MMT
120.0MMT
Argentina Australia Canada EU USA00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09
Grain Exports from The “big 5”
WHEATWHEAT
Wheat OutlookWheat Outlook 08/09 World Production: 679 MT
68 MT or 11% above last year’s. 28 MT in EU.
08/09 World consumption: 631 MT.
World Stocks: to go up by 19 MT, to 131 MT.
US stocks to double, to 16 MT.
Shipments by 5 Major Exporters are forecast to increase by 1.8 MT, to 78.4 MT.
Shipments by US to fall by 10.1 MT to 24.5 MT due to greater export availabilities in other countries.
WORLD WHEAT PRODUCTION - MMT
COUNTRY CY 2004 CY 2005 CY 2006 CY 2007 CY 2008
USA 58.70 57.30 49.30 56.20 68.00
CANADA 24.70 25.70 25.20 20.00 27.30
AUSTRALIA 21.90 25.10 10.80 13.00 22.50
ARGENTINA 16.00 14.50 15.20 16.00 12.00
FS-12 85.50 90.90 84.90 92.70 110.50
INDIA 72.10 68.60 69.30 75.80 78.40
PAKISTAN 19.50 21.60 21.20 23.30 21.50
EGYPT 7.20 8.20 8.30 8.20 8.30
IRAN 14.60 14.30 14.50 15.00 10.00
AFHGANISTAN 2.30 4.20 3.20 3.80 1.50
SYRIA 4.50 4.70 4.20 4.00 2.00
IRAQ 1.90 2.30 2.50 2.30 1.30
CHINA 91.50 97.40 108.40 109.80 114.00
WORLD 625.70 620.80 596.30 611.00 678.70
IGC World Wheat ExportIGC World Wheat Export
Price Trend?Price Trend?
Chicago Wheat Futures
CORNCORN
US Corn Used For Ethanol
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
90
/91
91
/92
92
/93
93
/94
94
/95
95
/96
96
/97
97
/98
98
/99
99
/00
00
/01
01
/02
02
/03
03
/04
04
/05
05
/06
06
/07
07
/08
08
/09
09
/10
10
/11
Mil
lio
n B
ush
els
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
Grind for Ethanol
Pct of Production
Total US Corn Exports vs Corn Used for Ethanol
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11
Crop Year
Mil
lio
n B
us
he
ls
Ethanol Exports
TRANSPORTATIONTRANSPORTATION
HandymaxHandymax
Fleet SizeFleet Size
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2001 2,832 1,063 1,010 575
2002 2,743 1,173 1,061 591
2003 2,683 1,231 1,123 620
2004 2,724 1,306 1,205 611
2005 2,755 1,410 1,299 658
2006 2,764 1,500 1,399 713
2007 2,827 1,582 1,472 760
2008 2,900 1,668 1,530 805
Handysize Handymax Panamax Capesize
Bulk Carrier Bulk Carrier UnitUnit Profile ProfileTotal Total 6,90
6,9033
Bulk Carrier Bulk Carrier DWTDWT Profile Profile2.5Billion 2.5Billion Metric Metric tons/Year
tons/Year
0.0MMT
20.0MMT
40.0MMT
60.0MMT
80.0MMT
100.0MMT
120.0MMT
140.0MMT
160.0MMT
2001 75.2MMT 49.1MMT 71.3MMT 90.5MMT
2002 72.9MMT 54.2MMT 74.7MMT 93.5MMT
2003 71.2MMT 57.2MMT 80.1MMT 98.5MMT
2004 72.6MMT 61.2MMT 86.4MMT 102.4MMT
2005 73.6MMT 66.5MMT 93.7MMT 111.1MMT
2006 73.9MMT 71.0MMT 100.8MMT 121.1MMT
2007 75.5MMT 76.0MMT 107.7MMT 129.9MMT
2008 77.2MMT 79.5MMT 111.2MMT 135.9MMT
Handysize Handymax Panamax Capesize
0.0MMT
20.0MMT
40.0MMT
60.0MMT
80.0MMT
100.0MMT
120.0MMT
140.0MMT
160.0MMT
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Handysize Handymax Panamax Capesize
Vessel Size Vessel Size DWTDWT Profile Profile
Vessel Size
Vessel Size TrendTrend
200.0MMT
300.0MMT
400.0MMT
500.0MMT
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Freight Deadweight GrowthFreight Deadweight Growth
Fleet up 45%, in 7 years!
Fleet up 45%, in 7 years!
34
HandymaxHandymax
Fleet AgeFleet Age
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Handysize 61% 4% 12% 10% 12%
Handymax 25% 7% 21% 21% 27%
Panamax 24% 7% 20% 22% 27%
Cape 19% 13% 21% 16% 30%
Over 20 yrs 15-19 10-14 5-9 Under 4 yrs
Bulk Carrier Size/Age ProfileBulk Carrier Size/Age Profile
Percent
Percent
36
HandymaxHandymax
Historical Historical EarningsEarnings
Historical high earnings have been behind the Huge ship-building boom
Historical Earnings $/dayHistorical Earnings $/day
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Capesize
Panamax
Handymax
Global markets turmoil.effect on global
economies, banks, ship mortgage, and …
Psychology.
Baltic Panamax Index 2002 to date
Baltic Panamax Index 2002 to date
Order book represents 70% of current fleet dwt capacity!
Rail ServiceRail Service
Major Rail Serving the USMajor Rail Serving the US
Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNSF) Union Pacific (UP) CSX Corporation (CSX) Norfolk Southern (NS)
Plus Two Canadian RailroadsCanadian Pacific (CP)Canadian National (CN)
BNSFUPNS
CSXCPCN
North American Rail System
Grain OriginationGrain Origination
Source: Association of American Railroads
Rail Shuttle Rail Shuttle Service…Service…
What it means to What it means to Grain Exporters?Grain Exporters?
Columbia Grain’s Newest Shuttle Facility
Kasa Point, Montana
21,773 metric tons of storage
Load shuttle in 10 hours
Need for facility Need for facility upgrade, i.e. upgrade, i.e.
spend more $$spend more $$
Sits on 54.6 Hectares
Loop is 1.5 miles
Kasa Point
More cargo in one train?!More cargo in one train?!
Weather & Predictability Weather & Predictability issuesissues
Barge Service Barge Service SnapshotSnapshot
Barge StatisticsBarge Statistics
725 MMT transported each year by barge in the U.S.
65 MMT Grains, 9% of total movement.
Over 28,000 barges in the system.
Over 60% of America's grain EXPORTS move by barge along the nation's inland waterways.
Source: Army Corp of Engineers and the American waterways Association
Outlook & Trends for Outlook & Trends for Pacific Northwest?Pacific Northwest?
Delivered Cost Counts!Delivered Cost Counts!
USA & PNWUSA & PNW
Major U.S. Grain Load Ports 07/08
TOTAL U.S. EXPORTS: 6 year average volume 100 MMT
Columbia River 24.5 MMT
Duluth4.1 MMT
Houston11.8 MMT
New Orleans 67.2 MMT
PNW
Gulf of Mexico
Great Lakes
Major U.S. Wheat Load Ports 07/08
TOTAL U.S. EXPORTS: 6 year average volume 25 MMT
Columbia River 11.5 MMT
Duluth1.8 MMT
Houston7.2 MMT
New Orleans
5.5 MMT
PNW
Gulf of Mexico
Great Lakes
-
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
CLD CGII KEC UHL
in M
T
Wheat Barley Corn Soybeans Sorghum
Columbia River Grain Columbia River Grain OutputOutput
05
1015202530354045505560
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
Percent of Total Move
Rail Barge Truck
U.S. Grain Movement by ModeU.S. Grain Movement by Mode
Columbia River Grain Movement by Columbia River Grain Movement by ModeMode
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
92
/93
93
/94
94
/95
95
/96
96
/97
97
/98
98
/99
99
/00
00
/01
01
/02
02
/03
03
/04
04
/05
05
/06
Crop Year
Pe
rce
nt
rail barge truck
ChallengesChallenges
Geography Geography RulesRules
6 Weeks Ago6 Weeks AgoEGYPTEGYPT
The world’s largest Wheat ImporterThe world’s largest Wheat Importer
PNW: Wheat $350 + Freight $88 = $439
USG: Wheat $290 + Freight $90 = $380
Black Sea: Wheat $280 + Freight $45 = $325
S. France: Wheat $280 + Freight $30 = $310
Australia: Wheat $242 + Freight $65 = $307
$ per ton
This WeekThis WeekEGYPTEGYPT
The world’s largest Wheat ImporterThe world’s largest Wheat Importer
PNW: Wheat $200 + Freight $45 = $245 $194
USG: Wheat $195 + Freight $25 = $220 $160
Black Sea: Wheat $200 + Freight $20 = $220 $105
S. France: Wheat $220 + Freight $20 = $240 $70
Australia: Wheat $190 + Freight $40 = $230 $77
$ per ton
Is the Columbia River deep enough?Is the Columbia River deep enough?
How big & deep is a How big & deep is a Panamax?Panamax?
60,000 Tons 40’60,000 Tons 40’65,000 Tons 43’65,000 Tons 43’72,000 Tons 47’72,000 Tons 47’78,000 Tons 50’78,000 Tons 50’
43” on the Columbia River expected in 2009.43” on the Columbia River expected in 2009.Already about Already about 13,000MT short13,000MT short of full Panamax of full Panamax
load… load… today.today.
$45
$35 $ per ton
What will full load mean in $$?What will full load mean in $$?
Freight Columbia River to EGYPTFreight Columbia River to EGYPT
Most Notable Trends
0.0MMT
20.0MMT
40.0MMT
60.0MMT
80.0MMT
100.0MMT
120.0MMT
140.0MMT
160.0MMT
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Handysize Handymax Panamax Capesize
Ship Size
200.0MMT
300.0MMT
400.0MMT
500.0MMT
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Fleet Size
Freight Value Commodity Value
Thank you!Thank you!