PNPL 2011 California

FACTS CALIFORNIA A M E R I C A N S E C U R I T Y P R O J E C T Pay Now, Pay Later: Cali ornia A dmittedly, the eects o climate change, a complex and intri- cate phenomeno n, are dicult to predict with precision . Inormed scientic and economic projections, as we have used in our research, however, allow us to see that Caliornia aces signicant losses in industries crucial to its economy i no action is taken. Moreover, data shows Cali ornia is poised to benet rom the research, development, and distribution o renewable energy technologies. By achieving the goals set out in its 2008 legislation, Caliornia will not only see billions o dollars in investment and thousands o new jobs, but also lose its reputation as the 12 th largest emitter o greenhouse gases in the world. 5 Should Under a high-emissions scenario, by the close o the century sea levels throughout the state are projected to rise 22-30 inches 1 and protecting coastal areas rom sea level rises around the San Francisco Bay alone could cost $6-30 billion each year. 2 Caliornia has the most polluted air in the country; this pollution (ozone and particulates) causes 8,800 deaths and costs the state $71 billion annually. These numbers will rise with the projected increases in temperature and air pollution levels across the state. 3 Caliornia has distinguished itsel as a leader in ghting climate change. In 2008, the state enacted the most comprehensive climate change legislation in the nation: by 2050, Cali- ornia pledges to cut emissions to 80% below 1990 levels. 4 According to a new study, a ailure to mitigate the efects o climate change could begin to cause serious gross domestic product and job losses as early as 2010 through 2050. In the short-term, the Caliornian economy is projected to sufer rom the efects o climate change, but the state could benet in the later years rom an increase in migrants and an upturn in economic output as other U.S. states are comparatively l ess capable o adapting. Ultimately, Caliornians could gain $25.1 billion in GDP and over 152,000 jobs by 2050.* we ail to take action against climate change, Caliornians have much to lose. Pay Later: The Cost o Inaction Caliornia will experience signicant losses—billions o dollars in revenue and thousands o jobs—i the eects o climate change are not mitigated. Te state’s ico nic beaches and coas ts may be lost, and the security o the agricultural and tourism industries will be in jeopardy. Te Golden State will lose i serious action is not taken. Sources: Kahrl; Union o Concerned Scientists, Climate Change in the United States: the Prohibitive Costs o Inaction *Possi bly eclipsing the positive projections, the study’ s calculations do not include snowall and icepack melt, which Caliornians depend on or much o the water supply. GDP numbers are based on a 0% discount r ate. Job losses ar e measured in labor years, or en tire years o ulltime employment. Backus, George et al., “Assessing the Near-erm Risk o Climate Uncertainty: Interdependencies among the U.S. States,” Sandia Report (Sandia National Labora tories, May 2010), 137, 141. https://cfweb- prod.sandia.gov/cfdocs/C CIM/docs/Climate_Risk _Assessment.pdf (accessed March 23, 2011). 0 5 10 15 20 Appr oximate Total Fl ood Damage 1980-2000 Median Projected Annual Cost of Protecting the Bay Area from Sea Lev el Rise B i l l i o n s ( $ ) Cost of 20th Century Flooding Compared to Fl ooding Costs Incur red in San Francisco b y 2100

PNPL 2011 California

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