PNACO Scenario RAPID January 29, 2008. PNACO Scenario Outline An analyst needs to find out if any...

PNACO Scenario

RAPIDJanuary 29, 2008

PNACO Scenario OutlineAn analyst needs to find out if any Iranian nano-tech companies have realistic capabilities to manufacture Air-Borne Toxins (ABT). RAPID creates initial probes for REALISM.

From the evidence supplied by REALISM, RAPID identifies a company that we call PNACO that manufactures Nano-Diamond Powder-based lubricants. RAPID instantiates two potential pathways for producing that product: Detonation Synthesis and High-Energy Ball Milling.

High Energy Ball Milling is also found in a pathway leading to the production of Air-Borne Toxins.

The uncertainty regarding the production of ABT by PNACO is deemed critical by RAPID and it creates several probes for additional information, including one that requests the particle size of the Nano-Diamond Powder produced by PNACO.

REALISM finds evidence that the particle size is 5nm indicating the Detonation Synthesis process which significantly lowers the probability of the pathway leading to the production of Air-Borne Toxins by PNACO.

Edit Knowledge

Base

RAPID Workflow

Probe Execution

Evidence Integration

Co-reference Resolution

Evidence Propagation Identification

of Critical Uncertainties

Probe Creation and

Prioritization

Ontology

Probes

Evidence

State of the World

Beliefs

Search and

BrowseMonitor

and Control

Ontology

Entity

Company

Product

Process Pathway

Evidence

Probe

RAPID’s general knowledge about the world’s entities, their structure and relationships is encoded in RAPID’s ontology

Company Ontology

Company

Unique ID

Name * (can have several values)

Business Activity * (manufacturing or trading or both)

Product *

Process *

Pathway *

Address *

Phone *

People *

Origin

This is a fragment used in the PNACO scenario

Product Ontology

Nano Products

Nano Biological

Agents

Nano Aluminum

Nano Lubricants

Nano MaterialsForm: powder or suspensionParticle size: fine or coarse

Nano Coatings

Air-Born Toxins (ABT)

Nano-Oil

Nano-Diamond Powder (NDP)

Nano Crystals

Nano Diamonds

Nano Polymers

Nano Metals

Large Porous Nano Particles

(LPNP) Nano Silver

Nano Copper

Process and Pathway OntologyNano

Manufacturing Process

High-Energy Ball Milling

(HEBM)Detonation Synthesis (DetSyn)

Pulse Wire Evaporation

(PWE)

Process1: HEBM

Product1: LPNP

Process2: Coat+Toxin

Product2: ABT

PWY-ABT

Process1: HEBM

Product1: NDP coarse

Process2: Mix+Oil

Product2: Nano-Oil

PWY-nOil-c

Process1: DetSyn

Product1: NDP fine

Process2: Mix+Oil

Product2: Nano-Oil

PWY-nOil-f

Process1: PWE

Product1: Nano-Metal

PWY-nMetal

Nano Manufacturing

Pathway

Nano Manufacturing Processes

Detonation nanodiamond manufacturing equipment at Sinta Ltd, Ukraine

Metal Nano Powder Fabrication System using Pulse Wire Evaporation (PWE) machine (Korea)

Initial ProbesFind Iranian Companies which produce Air-Borne Toxins

Find Iranian manufacturing companies whose description contains the word “nano”; report their names, products and business activities

Probe1 SELECT ID, name, bus-activity, productFROM companyWHERE product ≈ ABT and

origin = Iran andbus-activity = manufacturing

Probe2 SELECT ID, name, bus-activity, productFROM companyWHERE origin = Iran and

description CONTAINS “nano” andbus-activity = manufacturing

Example of source information

Evidence provided by REALISM

(= ev1 (that (company C1)))

(confidence ev1 1.0)

(= ev2 (that (name C1 “Iran Nano Metal Powder Industry”)))


(= ev3 (that (bus-activity C1 “Manufacturing”)))


(= ev4 (that (product C1 “Copper Metal Powder”)))


……

REALISM communicates evidence using IKL (Interoperable Knowledge Language) extension of ISO Common Logic

RAPID repackages this evidence into the evidence table

Evidence Table 1Ev_ID Item_ID Item_type Attr_name Attr_value confev1 c1 company self c1 1ev2 c1 company name Iran Nano Metal Powder Industry 1ev3 c1 company bus_activity Manufacturing 1ev4 c1 company product Copper Metal Powder 1ev5 c2 company self c2 1ev6 c2 company name pishgaman nano 1ev7 c2 company bus_activity Manufacturing 1ev8 c2 company product Nano Diamond Powder .96ev9 c2 company product Nano Diamond .96ev10 c2 company product Diamond Powder .96ev11 c2 company product Lubricant .96ev12 c3 company self c3 1ev13 c3 company name Pishgaman Nano Arya 1ev14 c3 company bus_activity Manufacturer 1ev15 c3 company product Nano Oil .92ev16 c3 company product Nano Technology Products .92ev17 c4 company self c4 1ev18 c4 company name Pishgaman Nano Arya. 1ev19 c4 company product Manufacturing 1ev20 c4 company product Inorganic Salt .94ev21 c5 company self c5 1ev22 c5 company name Pishgaman Nano Arya 1ev23 c5 company bus_activity Trading 1ev24 c5 company bus_activity Manufacturing 1ev25 c5 company product petrochemistry .96ev26 c5 company product Nano Oil .96

Evidence Integration 1RAPID creates instances of companies and products mentioned in the evidence table

Company c11.0 Name Iran Nano Metal Powder Industry1.0 Bus-activity Manufacturing1.0 Product p1

Company c21.0 Name Pishgaman Nano1.0 Bus-activity Manufacturing.96 Product p2, p3

Company c31.0 Name Pishgaman Nano Arya1.0 Bus-activity Manufacturing.92 Product p4, p5

Company c41.0 Name Pishgaman Nano Arya.1.0 Bus-activity Manufacturing.94 Product p6

Company c51.0 Name Pishgaman Nano Arya1.0 Bus-activity Manufacturing, Trading.96 Product p7, p8

Product p1 Copper Metal PowderCategory Nano-CopperForm Powder

Product p2 Nano Diamond PowderCategory NDPForm Powder

Product p3 LubricantCategory Lubricant

Product p4 Nano-OilCategory Nano-Oil

Product p5 Nano Technology ProductsCategory Nano-Products

Product p6 Inorganic SaltCategory Nano Crystals

Product p7 PetrochemistryCategory Products


Co-reference Resolution 1

Company c2“Pishgaman Nano”

Company c4“Pishgaman Nano Aria.”

Company c3“Pishgaman Nano Arya”

Company c5“Pishgaman Nano Arya”

.5

.6

.5 .7.5 .6

Although the names are very similar, co-references are ≤ .75

Nano Lubricants

Nano-Diamond Powder (NDP)p2

p3

c2

Product p2 subsumes p3, p4 subsumes p5 and p8 subsumes p7

Nano Products

p4

p5

c3

Nano-Oil

Products

p8

p7

c5

RAPID’s Beliefs after Co-ref Resolution 1To resolve co-references between c2, c3, c4, and c5 RAPID creates additional probes


Company c21.0 Name Pishgaman Nano1.0 Bus-activity Manufacturing.96 Product p2

Company c31.0 Name Pishgaman Nano Arya1.0 Bus-activity Manufacturing.92 Product p4

Company c41.0 Name Pishgaman Nano Arya.1.0 Bus-activity Manufacturing.94 Product p6

Company c51.0 Name Pishgaman Nano Arya1.0 Bus-activity Manufacturing, Trading.96 Product p8




Product p6 Inorganic SaltCategory Nano Crystals


c2 c4

c3

c5

.5

.5

.5

.6.7

.6

Co-refs

Probes 2Find phone numbers and addresses of companies c2, c3, c4, and c5.

Probe3 SELECT ID, address, phoneFROM companyWHERE ID = {c2, c3, c4, c5}

REALISM returns the following evidence which is added to the evidence table

(= ev27 (that (address C2 “No1-Block 2-Ferdos Complex-Pak St. -Sattarkhan St., Tehran, Tehran, Iran”)))

(confidence ev27 .95)

(= ev28 (that (phone C2 “98-21-88255207”)))


(= ev29 (that (phone C2 “9125599956”)))


(= ev30 (that (phone C2 “98-21-66905896”)))


……

Evidence Table 2Ev_ID Item_ID Item_type Attr_name Attr_value confev27 c2 company address No1-Block 2-Ferdos Complex-Pak St. -Sattarkhan St., Tehran, Tehran, Iran .95ev28 c2 company phone 98-21-88255207 .92ev29 c2 company phone 9125599956 .92ev30 c2 company phone 98-21-66905896 .92ev31 c3 company address No# 1, Block 2, Ferdows Complex, Hajipuramir St. , Sattarkhan Ave., Tehran, Tehran, Iran .94ev32 c3 company phone 98-021-88255207 .96ev33 c3 company phone 98-9125599956 .96ev34 c3 company phone 98-021-88255207 .96ev35 c4 company address Azadi St. , Tehran, Tehran, Iran .90ev36 c4 company phone 98-021-66915535 .90ev37 c4 company phone 98-9121441932 .90ev38 c4 company phone 98-021-66905896 .90ev39 c5 company address 1st Floor - No.10 - PISHVA Ave. - KHAZENI Ave. - North, ESKANDARI Ave. - AZADI Ave. .95ev40 c5 company phone 98-21-66566274 .95ev41 c5 company phone 98-21-66905896 .95ev42 c5 company phone (021) 66916770 .95ev43 c5 company phone 66915535 .95ev44 c5 company phone 66907419 .95

Every pair of companies has a least one phone number in common

Companies c2 and c3 have almost identical addresses

Additional Curiosity

This lab equipment supplier has exactly the same phone and fax numbers as Pishgaman Nano Arya.

The CEO of this company, Mr. Ebrahim Zadeh has the same name and mobile phone number as the Marketing Director for Pishgaman Nano Arya.

Co-reference Resolution 2

c2 c4

c3

c5

.8

.8

.8

.8.8

.8

The new evidence raises the co-reference probability past the .75 threshold

RAPID creates a new company PNACO which inherits all properties of c2, c3, c4 and c5

Nano Lubricants

Nano-Oil

Nano-Diamond Powder (NDP)

Nano Crystals

Nano Diamonds

p8

p6

PNACOp4

p2

PNACO inherits 4 products from the merger: p2, p4, p6, and p8

Both p4 and p8 are Nano-Oil and can be merged

Product p2 is a specialization of p6 and subsumes it

RAPID’s Beliefs after Co-ref Resolution 2


Company PNACO1.0 Name Pishgaman Nano

Pishgaman Nano AryaPishgaman Nano Aria.

1.0 Bus-activity Manufacturing, Trading.96 Product p2, p4




Pathway Instantiation 1

Process1: PWE

Product1: Nano-Metal

PWY-nMetal



Process1: PWE-1

Product1: p1

PWY-nMetal-1Probability 1.0

Company:c1

Product p1 matches Nano-Metal; RAPID creates an instance of pathway PWY-nMetal and an instance of process PWE

Since no other way of manufacturing p1 is known at this point, RAPID believes that this pathway instance has the probability 1.0

Pathway Instantiation 1 (cont.)Process1: HEBM

Product1: NDP coarse

Process2: Mix+Oil

Product2: Nano-Oil

PWY-nOil-c

Process1: DetSyn

Product1: NDP fine

Process2: Mix+Oil

Product2: Nano-Oil

PWY-nOil-f

Company PNACO.96 Product p2, p4



p2a (NDP coarse) p2b (NDP fine)

.48.48

Process1: HEBM-1

Product1: p2a

Process2: Mix+Oil-1

Product2: p4

PWY-nOil-c-1Probability .48

CompanyPNACO

Process1: DetSyn-1

Product1: p2b

Process2: Mix+Oil-1

Product2: p4

PWY-nOil-f-1Probability .48

CompanyPNACO

RAPID’s Beliefs After Pathway Instantiation 1Company c1

1.0 Name Iran Nano Metal Powder Industry1.0 Product p11.0 Process PWE-11.0 Pathway PWY-nMetal-1

Company PNACO1.0 Name Pishgaman Nano ….48 Product p2a.48 Product p2b.96 Product p4.48 Process HEBM-1.48 Process ConDet-1.96 Process Mix+Oil-1.48 Pathway PWY-nOil-c-1.48 Pathway PWY-nOil-f-1


Product p2a Nano Diamond PowderCategory NDPForm PowderParticle-size Coarse (> 50nm)


Process1: PWE-1

Product1: p1

PWY-nMetal-1

Process1: HEBM-1

Product1: p2a

Process2: Mix+Oil-1

Product2: p4

PWY-nOil-c-1

Process1: DetSyn-1

Product1: p2b

Process2: Mix+Oil-1

Product2: p4

PWY-nOil-f-1

Product p2a Nano Diamond PowderCategory NDPForm PowderParticle-size Fine (< 50nm)

Pathway Instantiation 2Process1: HEBM

Product1: LPNP

Process2: Coat+Toxin

Product2: ABT

PWY-ABT

Company PNACO1.0 Name Pishgaman Nano ….48 Product p2a.48 Product p2b.96 Product p4.48 Process HEBM-1.48 Process DetSyn-1.96 Process Mix+Oil-1.48 Pathway PWY-nOil-c-1.48 Pathway PWY-nOil-f-1




Process1: HEBM-1

Product1: p9 (LPNP)

Process2: Coat+Toxin-1

Product2: p10 (ABT)

PWY-ABT-1Probability .48

RAPID creates two inferred products: p9 (LPNP) and p10 (Air-Borne Toxin)

Identification of Critical Uncertainties

Company PNACO1.0 Name Pishgaman Nano ….48 Product p2a.48 Product p2b.96 Product p4.48 Product p9.48 Product p10.48 Process HEBM-1.48 Process DetSyn-1.96 Process Mix+Oil-1.48 Process Coat+Toxin-1.48 Pathway PWY-nOil-c-1.48 Pathway PWY-nOil-f-1.48 Pathway PWY-ABT-1



Process1: HEBM-1

Product1: p2a

Process2: Mix+Oil-1

Product2: p4

PWY-nOil-c-1

Process1: DetSyn-1

Product1: p2b

Process2: Mix+Oil-1

Product2: p4

PWY-nOil-f-1


Company c1 omitted

Product p9 LPNPCategory LPNP

Product p10 Air-Born ToxinCategory ABT

Process1: HEBM-1

Product1: p9


Product2: p10

PWY-ABT-1

Probe Targets

Target Company Attribute Entity Prob. Import Cost

t1 PNACO Product p2a .48 7 1

t2 PNACO Product p9 .48 8 5

t3 PNACO Product p10 .48 10 10

t4 PNACO Process HEBM-1 .48 8 8

t5 PNACO Process Coat+Toxin-1 .48 9 8

RAPID decides that t1 is the most cost-effective target

Probes 3

• Find the particle size of Nano-Diamond Powder produced by PNACO

• Because REALISM does not know about PNACO, RAPID has to use the company IDs received from REALISM

• In the future, probes will not be limited to REALISM information requests

Probe4 SELECT ID, category, company, particle_size FROM productWHERE company = {c2, c3, c4, c5} and category ≈ NDP

Evidence Table 3

Ev_ID Item_ID Item_type Attr_name Attr_value confidenceev45 RP1 product particle-size 5nm 0.7

ev46 RP1 product company c2 0.9ev47 RP1 product category nano-crystals 0.8

• Since company c2 was absorbed into PNACO, this evidence is used to update RAPID’s beliefs about PNACO

• Nano-crystals with particle size of 5nm match product p2b – fine Nano-Diamond Powder hypothetically produced by PNACO

• This raises the probability of p2b to 0.85 and lowers the probability of p2a to 0.15

• Next slide shows the effects of evidence propagation

RAPID’s Beliefs After New Evidence Integration

Company PNACO1.0 Name Pishgaman Nano …0.15 Product p2a0.85 Product p2b0.96 Product p40.15 Product p90.15 Product p100.15 Process HEBM-10.85 Process DetSyn-10.96 Process Mix+Oil-10.15 Process Coat+Toxin-10.15 Pathway PWY-nOil-c-10.85 Pathway PWY-nOil-f-10.15 Pathway PWY-ABT-1



Process1: HEBM-1

Product1: p2a

Process2: Mix+Oil-1

Product2: p4

PWY-nOil-c-1

Process1: DetSyn-1

Product1: p2b

Process2: Mix+Oil-1

Product2: p4

PWY-nOil-f-1


Company c1 omitted

Product p9 LPNPCategory LPNP

Product p10 Air-Born ToxinCategory ABT

Process1: HEBM-1

Product1: p9


Product2: p10

PWY-ABT-1

PNACO Scenario RAPID January 29, 2008. PNACO Scenario Outline An analyst needs to find out if any...

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